November 14, 2024

Euro Watch: Bonds in Spain and Italy Shaken by Italian Politics

Shares of Italian banks, which are big holders of the government’s bonds, were among the hardest hit.

The action came in the first day of trading after Prime Minister Mario Monti said over the weekend that he would soon step down after his predecessor, Silvio Berlusconi, withdrew his party’s support from Mr. Monti and said he would again seek election as prime minister.

Mr. Berlusconi, a four-time prime minister, left office a year ago as markets pushed Italy to the brink of financial collapse. Mr. Monti, an economist who was appointed as his temporary successor, has restored Italy’s credibility with investors, who have given the country a break on its borrowing costs. But those gains have come at the cost of painful austerity measures that have worsened the country’s economic situation and given Mr. Berlusconi an opening to attack.

The Milan benchmark index, MIB, fell more than 2 percent on Monday. Italian banks, which remain sensitive to declines in the country’s bond prices, were among the big losers. Intesa Sanpaolo, the most active stock, fell 5.2 percent, as did UniCredit.

Mr. Monti, who joined other leaders in Oslo on Monday to receive the Nobel Peace Prize awarded to the European Union, said at a news conference that the market reactions “need not be dramatized.”

“I am confident,” he said, that the Italian elections would result in a government “that will be responsible and oriented toward the E.U. and this will be in line with efforts the Italian government has made so far.”

The decline in bond prices sent their yields, or interest rates, higher — an indicator of the Italian government’s borrowing costs. The spread between interest rates on Italian 10-year sovereign bonds and equivalent German securities, the European benchmark for safety, grew to 3.5 percentage points on Monday. That was up from 3.25 percentage points late Friday, suggesting that investors were growing more wary of holding Italian debt.

The yield on Italian 10-year bonds, which breached 7 percent this year, ended trading on Monday at 4.8 percent, up 29 basis points. A basis point is one-hundredth of a percent.

Bonds of Spain, which is the other big economy of concern in the euro zone, also came under renewed pressure on Monday after Mr. Monti’s announcement.

The spread between Spanish 10-year bonds and equivalent German bonds widened to 4.27 percentage points from 4.16 points on Friday. The yield on the benchmark Spanish 10-year rose 10 basis points, to 5.5 percent; it reached 7.1 percent in July amid concerns that Spain would be forced into a full bailout after having to negotiate a 100 billion euro, or $129 billion, rescue package for its banks in June.

Luis de Guindos, the Spanish economy minister, warned that Italy’s political turmoil would affect his country.

“When doubts emerge over the stability of a neighboring country like Italy, which is also seen as vulnerable, there’s an immediate contagion for us,” he said Monday morning on Spanish national radio.

Asked whether Spain would itself seek further European rescue funding, he instead said, “The help that Spain needs is that the doubts over the future of the euro be removed.”

Speaking before the Nobel ceremony on Monday, the European Commission president, José Manuel Barroso, said Italy must “continue on the road of structural reforms.” The elections, Mr. Barroso said on Sky News, “must not be used to postpone reforms.”

A dismal economic report on Monday served as a reminder that despite Mr. Monti’s success with investors, the real economy continues to suffer. Italian industrial production fell a seasonally adjusted 1.1 percent in October from September, and by 6.2 percent from a year earlier, Istat, the national statistics agency, reported.

Some analysts said they thought that Mr. Berlusconi’s re-emergence as a political leader was as responsible for unnerving investors as Mr. Monti’s unexpected decision to resign. Nicholas Spiro, managing director of Spiro Sovereign Strategy, a research firm, wrote on Monday in a note that Mr. Berlusconi remained “the boogeyman of investors,” who “epitomizes the dysfunctional nature of Italian politics.”

Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, was to meet on Monday with Mr. Monti on the sidelines of the Nobel ceremony, said Georg Streiter, a spokesman for the chancellor.

Ms. Merkel pushed to have Mr. Monti succeed Mr. Berlusconi. But she ended up facing Mr. Monti’s own economic reform ideas, which focused more on growth and job creation than on the austere fiscal discipline championed by Ms. Merkel.

As a rule, the German government does not comment on its partners’ domestic politics, but Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle warned that an attempt to scale back Italy’s reform push could result in further destabilization in the euro zone.

“Italy cannot remain stagnant on two-thirds of its reform process,” Mr. Westerwelle said through a spokesman. “This would throw not only Italy but the rest of Europe into turbulence.”

Elisabetta Povoledo reported from Rome and David Jolly from Paris. Raphael Minder contributed reporting from Madrid and Melissa Eddy from Berlin.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/11/business/global/11iht-eurozone11.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Hopes Fade for Quick Deal on European Union Budget

“I don’t think there’s been enough progress so far,” Prime Minister David Cameron of Britain told reporters as he arrived at the summit meeting venue. “There really is a problem that there hasn’t been the progress in cutting back proposals for additional spending,” he added.

Late Thursday, Herman Van Rompuy, the president of the European Council, presented a new budget plan for the seven years from 2014 to 2020. The new outline reshuffled the amounts to reduce proposed cuts for agriculture and development assistance but kept the overall spending ceilings in his earlier proposal on the budget, which is worth the equivalent of about $1.3 trillion.

Mr. Cameron suggested that Mr. Van Rompuy’s plan represented little more than “tinkering” and said it wasn’t “the time for moving money from one part of the budget to another.”

Britain so far has gotten nowhere in a push to slash spending on the Union’s administrative apparatus, a small but symbolic area of costs and one of the few budget items easily comprehensible to ordinary citizens.

After the first day of negotiations broke up after midnight Thursday, Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany said the leaders’ positions remained “quite far apart.” She indicated that a deal on spending is unlikely this week.

The negotiating marathon over the budget, known as the Multiannual Financial Framework, is held every seven years and, focused on hard cash, tends to push national interests to the fore and swamp feel-good talk of European harmony, a cause for which the Norwegian Nobel Committee last month named the European Union as the recipient of the 2012 Nobel Peace Prize.

The budget, which amounts to about 130 billion euros per year, goes mostly to subsidize farmers and support regional projects in poorer member states, policies that were originally intended to help bind Europe together and mute the economic discord that in the past fueled antagonisms that led to bloody wars.

But differences in economic performance and priorities between member states are huge, pushing them to embrace starkly divergent agendas in budget talks.

In large measure, this is because what began as an economic bloc comprising six similarly developed market economies in Western Europe is now a 27-member body that includes 10 much poorer East and Central European nations formerly part of the socialist bloc.

As well as divisions between east and west, there is also a big gulf between northern countries, especially Germany, and so-called Club Med states in the south like Greece, which, burdened with huge debts, is struggling to keep its economy afloat and avoid social unrest.

Diplomats recalled with dark humor how Tony Blair, the former British prime minister, compared the round of E.U. budget negotiations in 2005 with trying to broker peace in Northern Ireland — only more difficult.

Nearly a third of the Union’s member states have hinted in recent days at using the veto that allows each country to blow up a budget deal.

Much of the attention at the special budget summit meeting has focused on demands for deep cuts by Mr. Cameron. Failure to achieve these would likely intensify growing hostility toward the Union in Britain and could even help prod the country in the direction of one day pulling out of the group altogether.

But Germany, too, wants big cuts, and that is a position that has put it at odds with Paris and unsettled a French-German tandem without which significant deals in Europe rarely happen. French officials said Paris does not object to slimming spending, only to sharp cuts in farm subsidies.

Yet for Prime Minister Elio Di Rupo of Belgium, the overall amount proposed by Mr. Van Rompuy should be higher to help the bloc out of the economic doldrums.

“The big problem, the basic problem is that there is not enough money,” Mr. Di Rupo told reporters. “This is dramatic because European countries need the support of the E.U.,” he said.

With divisions looking unbridgeable, a number of leaders echoed Ms. Merkel’s suggestion of a second budget summit meeting, perhaps early next year.

“I do hope that we can move on, but if that is not possible, we have to come back some other day,” Prime Minister Jyrki Katainen of Finland told reporters Friday. “Everything seems to be open. Some opinions are very far from each other, and it’s very difficult to assess at the moment what will happen today,” he added.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/24/world/europe/hopes-fade-for-quick-deal-on-european-union-budget.html?partner=rss&emc=rss