December 25, 2024

DealBook: In Davos, Merkel Presses Leaders to Keep Focus on Economy

Angela Merkel, the chancellor of Germany, said recent moves had calmed markets but have not solved the euro zone’s underlying economic problems.Anja Niedringhaus/Associated PressAngela Merkel, the chancellor of Germany, said recent moves had calmed markets but had not solved the euro zone’s underlying economic problems.

DAVOS, Switzerland — Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, on Thursday warned her fellow euro zone leaders not to falter in their efforts to reinvigorate their economies now that they face less pressure from financial markets. She gave voice to widespread concern here that a tentative European recovery could be undercut by political complacency.

Measures in recent months by the European Central Bank to help banks and struggling euro zone countries have calmed markets but have not solved the euro zone’s underlying economic problems, Ms. Merkel said in a speech to participants at the World Economic Forum.

“The E.C.B. has done a lot,” she said. Now, she added, “there is a political duty for us to do our homework.”

World Economic Forum in Davos
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Reprising the role of European taskmaster for which she is often resented, Ms. Merkel made her remarks shortly after Mario Monti, the prime minister of Italy, assured an audience at an auditorium in Davos that his country was making progress in efforts to reduce its debt load and streamline its economy. Italy is removing barriers to competition, rebuilding infrastructure and dismantling labor regulations that inhibit hiring and firing, Mr. Monti said.

But among big investors, many of whom are here, there is skepticism over whether Europe’s political leaders will follow through on such changes.

“These are fairly important measures,” said Olivier Marchal, managing director for Europe at Bain Company, speaking on European reform efforts. But, he predicted, “apart from the psychological effect, there will not be any tangible impact before 2014.”

David Cameron, the British prime minister, has intensified pressure on the euro zone — the 17 European Union members that use the euro — with his announcement Wednesday that he would ask Britons to vote on European Union membership within five years. He amplified those remarks here Thursday, saying that Britain did not want to turn its back on Europe but wanted to make it “more competitive, open and flexible.”

The discussion about European competitiveness came after a business survey released in London on Thursday raised hopes that the euro zone could emerge from recession sooner than expected. But the survey of purchasing managers, by the data provider Markit, showed a sharp divergence among countries. While German managers became more optimistic, French sentiment slumped.

Separately, a report from Madrid on Thursday showed that Spanish unemployment rose to a record high of 26 percent at the end of 2012, with six million people out of work.

Mr. Marchal of Bain Company said many of the businesspeople he had talked with remained cautious and reluctant to invest. “Many of them are either postponing strategic moves or preparing for things to get worse,” he said.

During her speech, Ms. Merkel described herself as “conditionally optimistic” and said, “The investment climate in Europe has improved.” But she went on to lament the high level of youth unemployment. The Spanish data released Thursday showed that the jobless rate among people from 16 to 24 years old was 55 percent in the last three months of 2012, up from 52 percent in the previous quarter.

“Our biggest burden is youth unemployment,” she said.

Europe needs to better exploit its status as the world’s largest market, Ms. Merkel said. “We can make a lot of that if we remain open, innovative and when we don’t take it for granted that Europe has a right to be the leading continent on the world.”

While Germany is considered healthier than other large economies in Europe, growth is hardly dynamic. Output shrank in the last three months of 2012. This year, the German economy will grow by about 1 percent, according to numerous forecasts.

“Things are better,” Thomas J. Donohue, president of the United States Chamber of Commerce, said in an interview here. “But there’s a big distance between things being better and having the growth we need to start hiring people.”

Mr. Donohue noted that the United States, Europe and China had become highly dependent on trade with one another. “If the E.U. has even a little bit of negative growth, that’s not going to be good for any of the three of us,” he said.

Ms. Merkel praised Mario Draghi, the president of the European Central Bank, for insisting that countries improve economic performance as a condition for his help containing market pressure.

But many of the business managers who predominate among the attendees in Davos are worried that progress will stall because of resistance from interest groups that stand to lose quasi-monopolies or other privileges ensured by government regulation. In addition, they say, European labor unions have held up changes in laws that make it nearly impossible to dismiss workers who are not needed or not performing.

Mr. Monti’s reform drive has helped Italy win back international respect, but there is considerable nervousness about what will happen after elections in February. Because Italian borrowing costs have retreated from alarming highs last year, political leaders feel more heat from voters than they do from bond investors.

Since Mr. Draghi promised last year to do whatever it took to preserve the euro, “I have seen in no country hard new measures,” Maximilian Zimmerer, chief financial officer of the German insurer Allianz, said in an interview.

Mr. Zimmerer expressed optimism that reforms would resume, but added, “You do not have the pressure of markets for now.”

Article source: http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/01/24/in-davos-merkel-presses-leaders-to-keep-focus-on-economy/?partner=rss&emc=rss

Euro Watch: Merkel Praises Irish Leader for Progress Against Debt

But more than accumulating honorary awards, Mr. Kenny would like to strike a deal on his country’s outstanding bank debt that would enable Ireland to resume raising money in the financial markets once its bailout money runs out.

German lawmakers and Chancellor Angela Merkel herself are quick to praise the Irish for the stoicism and determination with which they have responded to the demands that international lenders imposed in exchange for an €85 billion, or $110 billion, bailout in 2010. Those measures included deep budget cuts and higher taxes on Ireland’s already hard-pressed public.

“We have established that there is a special situation in Ireland, we are interested in a sustainable completion of the adjustment program,” Ms. Merkel said Thursday in Berlin, appearing alongside Mr. Kenny after the two met privately.

Germany cannot single-handedly grant Ireland’s wishes, of course. The Irish bailout was brokered by the so-called troika of lenders: the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund. But as the main European financier, Germany has clout.

Ms. Merkel on Monday dispatched her finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, to Dublin to hold talks with his Irish counterpart in an effort to find a deal.

When Ireland applied for its bailout from the euro zone fund in 2010, the financing was largely used to pay down banking debt that had ballooned during the 1990s, when the country became known as the Celtic Tiger, before the collapse of the Irish real estate market.

And Ireland has kept up its part of the bargain — unlike Greece, which required a second bailout and continues to struggle to satisfy its international lenders that it has exercised enough budget discipline to merit its next loan installment of €31.5 billion, or $40.7 billion, to avoid defaulting by the end of next month.

Ireland last week passed its eighth consecutive review by the troika. Mr. Kenny’s government has projected that the government budget deficit, which at its peak was 32.4 percent of gross domestic product, will be down to 8.6 percent of G.D.P. this year. And he said the government remained on track to reach its goal of 3 percent by 2015.

To honor Ireland’s diligence, and Mr. Kenny’s role in it, the German publishers plan to present him next week with a golden statuette: a replica of the mythical winged goddess who stands atop the Victory Column in the heart of Berlin.

“I think this award is absolutely justified,” Ms. Merkel said Thursday, “considering that what Ireland has achieved in terms of reforms, the changes the improvements in competitiveness and with that Ireland is one of the exceptional examples that Europe will emerge from this crisis stronger than it entered this crisis.”

But it would be hard-won strength.

Ireland is still grappling with high unemployment. Domestic consumer spending has been slow to pick up. And the government remains burdened with the staggering debt that it took on to recapitalize the country’s banks.

Against this backdrop, Dublin had hoped that once the European Stability Mechanism — the new, permanent European rescue fund — was in place, Ireland would also be able to draw from it to help finance its banking debt.

The chancellor has dashed that hope, insisting after a meeting of European leaders in Brussels last month that “if recapitalization is possible, it will come for the future.”

Although Ms. Merkel had been talking about Spain, the remark had reverberations in Dublin. That led to consultations by Ms. Merkel and Mr. Kenny, which continued with the meeting Thursday.

At the news conference, Mr. Kenny thanked the chancellor for her support of his country’s efforts, which he described as “an enormous challenge.”

On Jan. 1, Ireland takes over the rotating presidency of the European Union. Mr. Kenny said his government planned to focus on promoting growth and jobs and stabilizing the euro.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/02/business/global/daily-euro-zone-watch.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Markets Tumble as Greece Sets Referendum on Latest Europe Aid Deal

The proposed ballot will put Greek austerity measures — and potentially membership in the euro zone — to a popular vote for the first time, risking Mr. Papandreou’s political future and threatening even greater turmoil both among the countries that share the single currency and further afield.

His announcement sent tremors through Europe’s see-sawing markets on Tuesday, with bank stocks taking a particular hammering because of their exposure to Greek debt. At midday, the German DAX index was down by 5.3 per cent while the French CAC 40 had slipped by roughly 4.2 per cent. In Britain, which is not a member of the euro zone but trades heavily with continental Europe, the FTSE 100 index was down by around 3.2 percent.

President Nicolas Sarkozy of France is expected to speak with German Chancellor Angela Merkel by phone during the day on Tuesday to discuss the referendum, which took both leaders by surprise, Agence-France Presse reported. The French president was said to be “dismayed,” according to Le Monde, citing an unnamed confidant of Mr. Sarkozy.

The German Finance Ministry deflected questions in a statement early Tuesday that the call for a referendum “is a domestic political development on which the German government has no official information yet and which therefore it will not comment on.”

But Rainer Brüderle, a senior member of Ms. Merkel’s governing coalition and a former finance minister, said in a radio interview on Tuesday that he was “irritated” by the move, which he called “a strange thing to do.”

“This sounds to me like someone is trying to wriggle out of what one has agreed to,” he was quoted by Der Spiegel as saying.

Mr. Papandreou’s surprise promise of a vote on the austerity package introduced a note of uncertainty in what had seemed to be a done deal, threatening a comprehensive agreement reached by European leaders last week to shore up the euro zone. A rejection by the voters would also be likely to be treated as a vote of no confidence in the government and lead to early elections.

The anxiety stirred up by those fears hammered United States financial markets on Monday, showing once again how the domestic politics of even the smallest members of the European Union can create troubles that not only threaten the currency but reverberate around the globe.

Addressing lawmakers on Monday evening, Mr. Papandreou said the decision on whether to adopt the deal, which includes fresh financial assistance, debt relief and deeply unpopular austerity measures, properly belonged to the Greek people.

“Let us allow the people to have the last word, let them decide on the country’s fate,” he said.

It was unclear how the referendum would be worded, but Mr. Papandreou said it would be a vote on whether or not Greeks supported the debt deal and the program of austerity measures in exchange for foreign aid.

The stakes are extremely high. A no vote could break the deal between Greece and its so-called troika of foreign lenders — the European Union, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund — which have demanded structural changes and austerity measures in exchange for aid.

Without the aid, Greece would not be able to meet its expenses and would default on its debt, sending shock waves through the euro zone and the world economy.

A yes vote, on the other hand, would move the package forward, effectively shifting responsibility for the nation’s painful economic choices from Mr. Papandreou’s Socialist Party onto the public. That outcome would help Mr. Papandreou shore up his political fortunes and avoid the instability of early elections.

The center-right opposition has opposed the bulk of the austerity program, and the prime minister’s popular support has dwindled as Greeks have been hit by a seemingly endless series of tax increases and wage and pension cuts. On Sunday, the center-left newspaper To Vima reported that a majority of Greeks viewed the deal negatively.

The leader of Greece’s main conservative opposition party New Democracy, Antonis Samaras, told reporters in Athens on Tuesday that his party would do whatever it takes to force early elections and accused Mr. Papandreou of acting selfishly by calling for a referendum.

“Mr. Papandreou, in his effort to save himself, has presented a divisive and extortionate dilemma,” Mr. Samaras said following talks with President Karolos Papoulias.

Niki Kitsantonis reported from Athens, and Rachel Donadio from Rome. Alan Cowell contributed reporting from London and J. David Goodman from New York.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/02/world/europe/markets-tumble-as-greece-plans-referendum-on-latest-europe-aid-deal.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

News Analysis: Central Bank May Be Winner in Europe’s Debt Talks

It is true the central bank lost its fight to prevent European leaders from precipitating a partial default of Greek debt. After meeting with Ms. Merkel and other leaders in Brussels on Thursday, though, Mr. Trichet appeared to have prevailed on important points. Governments agreed to reclaim the task of preventing collapse of the Greek economy and to take responsibility for fiscal performance of the euro zone, tasks that the central bank did not want.

“Have they backed down?” asked Peter Westaway, chief European economist at Nomura International, about the central bank’s position on a default. “To an extent they have.”

In turn, the central bank will be able to spend less time saving Greece and concentrate on its day job, overseeing monetary policy.

“The E.C.B. is trying to resist anything that makes it look like monetary authorities are taking on a role that governments should be taking on,” Mr. Westaway said.

Mr. Trichet won commitments from governments on another longstanding issue. Political leaders in Brussels agreed to take more concrete steps to reduce their debt and to ensure that the Greek disaster is not repeated elsewhere. Euro zone countries promised to cut their budget deficits to below 3 percent of each country’s annual output by 2013, in line with limits set by treaty, but widely violated.

The European countries also agreed to support Greek banks, a task that has been handled up to now primarily by the central bank. And the leaders will do more to help Greece fix its dysfunctional economy.

“The decision of member states and of the commission to mobilize all resources necessary in order to provide exceptional assistance to help Greece in implementing its reforms is very, very important,” Mr. Trichet said in Brussels on Thursday, according to Reuters.

A high-ranking monetary policy official, who would not be quoted by name, said, “We got what we wanted.”

Since the debt crisis began last year, there has been a strong temptation by Ms. Merkel, President Nicolas Sarkozy of France and other leaders to leave the heavy lifting to the central bank. Unlike the politicians, Mr. Trichet and his colleagues on the governing council cannot be voted out of office. The central bank also has extensive financial resources and does not need an act of Parliament to deploy them — though it took pains to avoid the appearance that it was printing money.

Even as Mr. Trichet framed his actions in terms of monetary policy, he faced increasing criticism that the central bank had compromised its sacred independence from politics. He was clearly annoyed at political leaders for their lack of decisive action. During a meeting last year, he got into a shouting match with Mr. Sarkozy, according to several people who attended.

The package announced in Brussels late Thursday would shift responsibility for a number of major tasks from the central bank to governments. For example, the European Financial Stability Fund would have the power to buy government bonds on open markets to stabilize prices, allowing the central bank to wind down its own controversial bond-buying program. The decision in May 2010 by the central bank to begin buying Greek, Portuguese and Irish bonds split the bank’s governing council and has left the bank with billions in distressed debt.

“It is no longer necessary for the E.C.B. to do this job, which is a plus for the E.C.B.,” Jörg Krämer, chief economist at Commerzbank, said in Frankfurt.

European leaders will also guarantee the quality of Greek bonds even if some ratings agencies declare the country to be in partial default. Fitch Ratings said Friday that the plan to extract a contribution from bond investors would constitute a restricted default.

The guarantees by the European Union mean that the central bank can continue to accept Greek bonds as collateral for short-term loans, maintaining the flow of the bank’s funds to Greek institutions that are shut out of international money markets.

“In our view this is a very important sign of institutional respect from Europe to the E.C.B.,” analysts at Royal Bank of Scotland wrote in a note Friday.

Analysts cautioned that the rescue plan, outlined in a four-page statement by European leaders Thursday, was short on detail. It is not clear, for example, if the euro zone countries are committing enough money to support the Greek banks, Mr. Krämer of Commerzbank said.

He was also skeptical of promises by leaders to do a better job policing each other’s fiscal discipline. “I have heard this for 15 years,” Mr. Krämer said. “I don’t believe it. The E.U. is a consensus-driven club. You can’t force other countries to do this or that.”

Jens Weidmann, president of the German Bundesbank and a member of the central bank’s governing council, implicitly greeted the greater willingness by leaders to take more responsibility.

“It is decisive for monetary policy during this sovereign debt crisis that no further risk be transferred to the Eurosystem, and that the separation between monetary and financial policy not be further weakened,” Mr. Weidmann said in a statement, referring to the network of European central banks.

But, in a sign that not all members of the governing council are happy with the agreement, Mr. Weidmann criticized what he called a major step toward collective responsibility for the mistakes of individual states.

“This weakens the fundament of a monetary union built on individual fiscal responsibility,” Mr. Weidmann said in a statement. “In the future it will be even more difficult to maintain incentives for solid financial policy.”

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=32c09d007d33421c108f4985bcd2eedf