December 22, 2024

Today’s Economist: Simon Johnson: Restoring the Legitimacy of the Federal Reserve

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Simon Johnson is the Ronald A. Kurtz Professor of Entrepreneurship at the M.I.T. Sloan School of Management and co-author of “White House Burning: The Founding Fathers, Our National Debt, and Why It Matters to You.”

The Federal Reserve has a legitimacy problem. Fortunately, a potential policy shift is available that offers both the right thing for the Fed to do and a way to please sensible people on both sides of the political spectrum.

As the election season progresses, Republican politicians are increasingly criticizing the monetary policy of Ben Bernanke and his colleagues on the grounds that they are exceeding their authority, particularly by buying assets and trying to lower interest rates in what is known as “quantitative easing.”

Today’s Economist

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There is growing concern in Republican circles that the Fed is tipping the election toward President Obama, and Mitt Romney repeated unambiguously in August that he would not reappoint Mr. Bernanke (a Republican originally appointed by President George W. Bush).

At the same time, a significant number of people on the left of American politics are concerned about how the Fed acted in the period leading up to the crisis of 2008 — blaming it for a significant failure of regulation and supervision — and about how much support it currently provides to big banks.

If the right and the left were ever to come together on this issue, they might enact legal changes that would reduce the independence of the Federal Reserve, making it more subject to Congressional pressures. At the very least, the implicit buffers that protect the Fed from political interference could easily weaken, depending on the outcome of the November election.

The Fed has no special constitutional protection, from either the original Constitution or any subsequent amendment. The Federal Reserve System was created in 1913 by an act of Congress and its mandate, functions and authority have been amended by Congress over the years. Most recently, some small but potentially significant changes were enacted as part of the Dodd-Frank financial legislation in 2010.

The Fed has been unpopular before, most notably when under Paul A. Volcker, its chairman, it tightened monetary policy to bring down inflation in the early 1980s. And some tension is built into the very objectives of the organization. Section 2A of the Federal Reserve Act, as amended, now reads:

The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and the Federal Open Market Committee shall maintain long-run growth of the monetary and credit aggregates commensurate with the economy’s long-run potential to increase production, so as to promote effectively the goals of maximum employment, stable prices and moderate long-term interest rates.

(This so-called dual mandate came from the Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act of 1978, sometimes known as the Humphrey-Hawkins legislation. This language was not in the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 or the 1946 Employment Act).

Most of the previous political concerns were from the left of the political spectrum and concerned whether the Fed placed too much weight on low inflation and not enough weight on achieving a high level of employment. Strong voices from the left currently assert that Mr. Bernanke’s team should have done more, earlier and faster, to speed the economic recovery.

But now the brunt of the attack comes from the right, where trouble for the Fed has been brewing for some time.

Open season on the Fed was declared last year by Rick Perry, governor of Texas and then a Republican presidential candidate. On the campaign trail in summer 2011, he remarked memorably:

If this guy prints more money between now and the election, I don’t know what you all would do to him in Iowa, but we would treat him pretty ugly down in Texas. Printing more money to play politics at this particular time in American history is almost treacherous — treasonous, in my opinion.

Mr. Perry was picking up on longstanding themes from that part of the Republican right that feels the very existence of the Federal Reserve undermines the Republic. Ron Paul’s book on the subject is titled “End the Fed.” Mr. Paul is sometimes regarded as a fringe figure, but anti-Fed sentiment is no longer a marginal view within the Republican Party – see, for example, the range of voices quoted by Politico last week.

(Mr. Paul’s and, to some extent, Governor Perry’s intellectual predecessor was Wright Patman, a populist Democrat from Texas who served in the House for almost 50 years and was a regular bête noire of Fed chairmen. In one hearing on the Fed’s monetary policy, for example, Mr. Patman opened the session by caustically asking the chairman, Arthur Burns, “Can you give me any reason why you should not be in the penitentiary?” Mr. Patman, it should be noted, was described by the historian Robert Caro as to the left of Lyndon B. Johnson.)

Fortunately there is a way for the Fed to reaffirm its legitimacy: the Board of Governors should strengthen capital requirements for the largest United States banks and other systemically important financial institutions. Ideally it should move policy in a direction that is responsible and that would be welcomed on both sides of the political spectrum.

The best way to do this would be to increase capital requirements for very large banks and other financial institutions that the Fed deems to be systemically important. Both sides of the aisle increasingly show some understanding that higher capital requirements for megabanks would make them generally safer and more resilient in the face of really big unusual shocks — and therefore reduce the degree of public subsidy they receive, implicitly, because they are too big to fail (and therefore able to get support, when needed, from the Fed).

(The Dodd-Frank Act constrained the ability of the Fed to help individual financial institutions, but in my assessment left the door open to various kinds of broader assistance to classes of assets or groups of companies — either through the Fed discount window for lending to banks or through some mechanism to be specified later.)

The recent letter to Mr. Bernanke by Senators Sherrod Brown, Democrat of Ohio, and David Vitter, Republican of Louisiana — which I wrote about recently — is a perfect example of the emerging cross-partisan consensus. In private, I hear strong voices from right and left echoing the sentiments of this letter.

The megabanks, naturally, are opposed. They contend that higher capital requirements would be bad for the economy. That is a myth, fully exploded by the Stanford professor Anat Admati and her colleagues (if you have not already seen their Web site, you should look at it now.)

The Fed has the ability and the opportunity to make a move on capital requirements for systemically important financial institutions — we are currently in a comment period that runs until Oct. 22 on exactly this issue. Higher requirements would make the financial system safer. They would also represent an important step toward rebuilding the political legitimacy of the Federal Reserve System.

Article source: http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/20/restoring-the-legitimacy-of-the-fed/?partner=rss&emc=rss

From Europe, Mounting Pressure Over Greece’s Debt

The announcement could portend yet another restructuring of Greek debt to stave off a default. A stopgap bailout plan announced on July 21 has yet to be approved by all 17 nations that share the euro currency, and in recent weeks a renewed sense of crisis has engulfed the euro region.

In the latest sign of turmoil, Italy — the euro region’s most indebted member, after Greece — was forced to pay record-high interest rates in order to complete an auction of its five-year bonds on Tuesday, despite continuing purchases by the European Central Bank. Spain, which plans a bond sale on Wednesday, could be subjected to similar investor wariness.

Plans were clearly being laid Tuesday for a serious conversation with Mr. Papandreou. His government has proved incapable so far of making the kinds of legal changes and budget cuts in the middle of a deep recession that Athens has promised its European partners and the International Monetary Fund.

France, where shares of the biggest banks have plummeted recently on fears of exposure to Greece’s debt, is pressing for a stronger signal from Germany that Europe will act to resolve the Greek matter before it spreads further contagion.

Despite the stepped-up pace of economic diplomacy, Europe’s response to the debt crisis still appeared to be behind the curve. That was underscored by the announcement that Timothy F. Geithner, the United States Treasury secretary, will make a rare appearance at an informal meeting of European finance ministers to be held Friday in Wroclaw, Poland. The trip will be Mr. Geithner’s second across the Atlantic in a week, following the Group of 7 session in Marseille, France, last weekend.

“Clearly the U.S. Treasury is disappointed with the direction of the European debt crisis and is looking for action, before further sections of the banking system are drawn in and a global financial crisis is revisited,” Chris Turner and Tom Levinson, strategists at ING, said in a research note.

Growing concern in Washington about the euro crisis and the damage it is doing to the markets and the global economy was also expressed by President Obama, meeting with Spanish-speaking journalists in Washington.

Mr. Obama urged European leaders to step up their efforts. “In the end the big countries in Europe, the leaders in Europe, must meet and take a decision on how to coordinate monetary integration with more effective coordinated fiscal policy,” Mr. Obama said, according to the Spanish news agency EFE.

Mr. Sarkozy met Tuesday evening at the Élysée Palace with Herman Van Rompuy, the president of the 27-nation European Council, to discuss the euro crisis, but neither man spoke afterward to the press. Mr. Van Rompuy has been asked by Germany and France to head a similar council of the 17 euro zone nations.

France and Germany are pressing to put into place the decisions made at the last euro zone summit meeting on July 21, which called for raising the total bailout fund to 440 billion euros ($598 billion). Germany, whose participation would be the most crucial financially and politically, is among the many countries that have yet to ratify that agreement.

Mrs. Merkel, who is working to win a ratification vote in the Parliament this month, said on Tuesday that Germany would ensure there would be no “uncontrolled default” of Greece that could pull down the euro zone. An uncontrolled default would be the equivalent of Greece’s simply walking away from its debts, whatever the consequences, rather than undergoing the equivalent of supervised bankruptcy proceedings.

“It is our top priority to avoid an uncontrolled default,” Mrs. Merkel said, “because it would hit not only Greece. The danger would be very high that it would hit many other countries.”

Mrs. Merkel’s mention of default was significant, because there is increasing skepticism that even the second bailout of Greece would be enough to bring it to a sustainable level of debt.

The Dutch finance minister, Jan Kees de Jager, said on Tuesday that he was studying the possible consequences of a Greek default.

“We’re currently preparing for many scenarios and possible shock effects,” Mr. De Jager said in an interview with the broadcaster RTLZ. He declined to comment when asked whether euro zone officials were preparing for a default of Greece.

Reporting was contributed by Nicholas Kulish and Judy Dempsey in Berlin, Matthew Saltmarsh in London, Elisabetta Povoledo in Rome and Graham Bowley in New York.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=320f941de9b29b256dfc8e89dc53497a