November 14, 2024

G-20 Leaders Agree to Continue Stimulus Plans

MOSCOW — The leaders of the world’s 20 largest economies issued a joint statement on Friday saying it was too early to ease off government stimulus spending, in spite of recent positive economic news.

The opening lines of the statement, which was issued at the end of the Group of 20 meeting hosted by Russia, said that “strengthening growth and creating jobs is our top priority” with no mention of tackling deficits.

The leaders also approved a plan to crack down on multinational corporations that had been able to legally avoid taxes by shuffling profits and costs between various jurisdictions. The overhaul should, over time, shift some of the global tax burden away from individuals and small businesses to large, global companies. But the first step, a plan to share tax information, would only be implemented at the end of 2015, the statement said.

The economic tone of the statement was little changed from a draft issued in July after a summit meeting of finance ministers, suggesting that the world’s most influential leaders are still nervous about growth prospects despite a recent spate of positive economic news. Governments in the Group of 20 countries collectively account for about 90 percent of the world’s economic output.

“We agreed that it remains critical for the G-20 countries to focus all our joint efforts on engineering a durable exit from the longest and most protracted crisis in modern history,” the statement said.

Although not openly critical of austerity measures like the across-the-board federal budget cuts in the United States or the diminished state spending lenders have insisted on in Greece, the statement suggested that most governments considered the recovery too weak to risk reducing spending on unemployment benefits, job training or infrastructure.

The statement comes as the United States Federal Reserve considers pulling back from its stimulus efforts, which have helped keep interest rates low and spurred growth.

The expectation of a change in Fed policy is sending tremors through the global economy. Currencies like the rupee in India to the ruble in Russia have lost value. Emerging market bonds, too, have suffered.

The G-20 statement offered little consolation. It said central banks would better “communicate” their intentions but made no promises of easing the sell-off in countries with poorer investment climates.

The statement seemed in part a concession by developing countries like India, where the rupee has lost 17 percent of its value against the dollar this year, that they would have to fend for themselves. It referred vaguely to “collective and country specific measures” to improve the investment climates in such nations.

The statement, a senior United States Treasury official said in a telephone interview, was “a recognition that certain emerging markets that are seeing weakened investor appetite need to look at their policy reform agenda” and help themselves.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/07/business/global/g-20-leaders-agree-to-continue-stimulus-plans.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Confidence Slumps in Euro Zone

The Economic Sentiment Indicator for the 17-country euro zone slipped 1.5 percentage points to 88.6. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a decline to 89.3.

The disappointing figures highlight the euro zone’s difficult road out of recession and the souring of the mood among companies and consumers since March, after an optimistic start to the year.

What is likely to be of most concern is the fact that pessimism has set in even in Germany, which has Europe’s biggest economy, where economic sentiment worsened by 2.3 points. Morale also fell in France and Italy, meaning that the euro zone’s three largest economies are all witnessing a marked decline in the confidence that is crucial to get output growing again.

Across the euro zone, sectors ranging from industry to retail trade showed falling confidence. Sentiment in services fell 4.1 percentage points.

The commission’s measure of the euro zone’s business cycle reflected the malaise, decreasing 18-hundredths of a point to minus 0.93, lower than the minus 0.89 level expected by economists.

Many now expect the European Central Bank to cut interest rates to lower the cost of borrowing and help improve morale. The benchmark European rate, the refi rate, stands at 0.75 percent, a record low; many economists expect a cut to 0.5 percent.

Germany’s economic resilience and changes in Southern Europe had sown hope early in the year that the euro zone could pull out of recession before the end of the year, but the messy bailout of Cyprus and the inconclusive Italian elections in February have weighed on confidence. France’s weak economy and public accounts are also a concern.

Consumer confidence in the euro zone increased 1.2 points, however, and in Spain, sentiment improved by almost 1 point, in a sign that changes may be helping business despite record unemployment.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/30/business/global/30iht-eurozone30.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Merkel Rejects Rapid Action on the Euro

“Nothing has changed in my position,” she said at a news conference with Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti and French President Nicolas Sarkozy in Strasbourg, in eastern France.

But with signs of spreading contagion — a weak bond sale Wednesday in Germany that lifted rates there, rates on sovereign debt rising to unsustainable levels in Italy and Spain and interbank lending in Europe beginning to dry up — questions remained about just how long Germany can resist the persistent calls for action.

The German newspaper Bild reported Thursday that the Merkel government was inching towards accepting so-called eurobonds, at least in some form, even if the public stance remained against them, and that some of her party said they could be a tradeoff for treaty changes. “We aren’t saying never,” Norbert Barthle, a legislator from her coalition told journalists. “We’re just saying no eurobonds under the current conditions.”

That could be some time. France and Germany say eurobonds would make sense only down the road, when there is more convergence and growth, and Paris and Berlin will not be on the hook for all the other weaker economies. France, however, wants to use the European Central Bank more aggressively to backstop vulnerable euro zone economies while they reform themselves.

Mrs. Merkel and other German officials fear that giving in to the calls for collective bonds or to use the European Central Bank as a lender of last resort will ease pressure on the debtor nations, allowing them to avert the drastic structural changes that Berlin says they need to make to become competitive, while making Germany and other creditors liable for their debts.

There was no hint of any softening from Mrs. Merkel after the leaders of the three largest economies in the euro zone met Thursday to try to reassure the markets about the future of the currency, vowing to work together on German-inspired treaty changes to promote more economic discipline and convergence.

Those treaty changes, which could take years to draft, ratify and implement, will have little impact on the current market anxiety over the euro, which has seen the interest rates on Italian, Spanish and French bonds rise sharply over German ones, and a growing distaste among investors even for the previously rock solid German bonds.

The three leaders finished their luncheon meeting in Strasbourg by expressing confidence that the independent central bank would do the right thing for the currency, presumably continuing to buy enough bonds to keep the interest rates on European sovereign debt from becoming unsustainable.

“We all stated our confidence in the European Central Bank and its leaders, and stated that in respect of the independence of this essential institution we must refrain from making positive or negative demands of it,” Mr. Sarkozy told the news conference.

But Mr. Sarkozy’s frustration with German intransigence was evident. “I am trying,” Mr. Sarkozy said, “to understand Germany’s red lines.”

Mr. Sarkozy, who has been pressuring Berlin to let the bank act more decisively to support Italy and Spain and halt a rush out of euro zone bonds and banks, said that joint proposals to modify European Union treaties would be presented ahead of a summit on Dec. 9. The modifications, sought by Germany but supported by France, would allow more Brussels greater oversight of national budgets and statistics, create debt limits for governments and attempt to create more convergence over matters like pension ages and tax levels.

But Mrs. Merkel made it clear that any new treaty changes would not touch the charter of the central bank.

The markets were predictably disappointed with the German position. The yield on Italian 10-year bonds, the broad cost of government borrowing, crept back above 7 percent on Thursday as European stocks fell for a sixth day. The markets were also affected by remarks from the chief economist of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Pier Carlo Padoan, who warned in an interview with La Stampa newspaper that while a euro zone recession could still be avoided, forthcoming forecasts showed “declining and very weak growth.”

Steven Erlanger reported from Paris and Nicholas Kulish from Berlin.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/25/world/europe/merkel-rejects-rapid-action-on-the-euro.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Stocks Give Up Early Gains

The stock market rose in early trading on Wednesday as investors absorbed new data and corporate results, but gave up its gains by midday as the technology sector lagged.

While key sectors like energy and financial stocks recovered on Wednesday, after leading the overall market decline on Tuesday, technology shares were weighed down as Dell dropped more than 9 percent. The company said Tuesday that a weaker economy had lowered demand, flattening its sales in the quarter ended July 29, and it said it had pared low-margin sales. Its net income rose 63 percent in the quarter, but it lowered its revenue forecast for the rest of the year.

The declines in the equities market were slight — less than 1 percent in each of the three main indexes — but a reversal from the trend in early trading.

The market is recovering from a bout of volatility last week, and fell on Tuesday in the aftermath of a meeting between leaders of the euro zone’s two largest economies, France and Germany.

While many believe that the equities markets will remain unsteady for some time, bargain-hunters are benefitting from the recent lows.

“I think that the market is still reacting to a pretty oversold condition technically,” said Tom Samuels, managing partner for Palantir Capital Management, on Wednesday.

Mr. Samuels said that in the short term, meaning through Labor Day in early September, the market might continue to be “a little bullish,” but for now the respite was a time to reposition portfolios. Still, the balance was so tenuous that the financial markets were “one fundamental announcement” away, he added, from additional problems coming out of the euro zone or from economic statistics.

“There could be some more rough sailing ahead once we get out of August,” he said.

In early afternoon trading, the Standard Poor’s 500-stock index was down half a point. The Dow Jones industrial average was down 0.25 percent and the Nasdaq was slightly lower at 0.71 percent. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was 2.17 percent, compared with 2.22 percent late Tuesday.

After the previous week’s extreme volatility and swings of hundreds of points, Wall Street tacked on gains over three consecutive trading days that had helped shares recover by Monday from losses in the wake of the Aug. 5 downgrade of America’s long-term credit rating. But then the markets declined on Tuesday after talks in Paris between Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany and President Nicolas Sarkozy of France that analysts said fell short of easing concerns over how the euro zone’s finances would be handled.

On Wednesday, there appeared to be an early rally leading the riskier side of the market, and some strength in the commodity sector after a relatively benign reading in a key indicator on producer prices, Mr. Samuels noted.

The broadest indicator of wholesale prices edged up 0.2 percent in July, according to the Labor Department. Not counting food and energy, the indicator, the Producer Price Index, was up 0.4 percent, the most rapid rise in six months.

“The Treasury market is trading slightly lower this morning as investors renew their on-again, off-again love affair with riskier assets,” said Kevin H. Giddis, the executive managing director and president for fixed-income capital markets at Morgan Keegan Company.

“Favorable earnings reports appear to be boosting the appeal of stocks this morning, but the stronger than expected results from the P.P.I. are probably playing a role as well,” he added in a market commentary.

A range of stocks gained on Wednesday, with a rise of more than 1 percent in the utilities and telecommunications sectors. Consumer staples also rose as the markets responded to signals about the business sector and economy extracted from the latest corporate results.

Seasonal factors appeared to help Target, for example, which reported a higher quarterly profit helped by school related sales toward the end of the period. Its shares rose more than 4 percent. Staples rose 2.25 percent after it raised its outlook and after its earnings exceeded expectations.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=f61e945899b2b0c0a444cc3e841d0a98