December 21, 2024

Economic Data Lift Chinese Stocks to 3-Month High

BEIJING — China’s annual industrial output rose 10.4 percent in August, beating market expectations, data released Tuesday showed, pushing stocks to a three-month high amid other positive reports.

Fixed-asset investment, an important driver of economic activity, rose 20.3 percent in the first eight months from the same period last year, the National Bureau of Statistics said Tuesday. Retail sales rose 13.4 percent.

China’s power output also climbed for a fourth month in August, official data releasted Tuesday showed, posting the second-highest monthly growth this year in a searing summer.

Power production and consumption have been rising steadily since May, as the economy has stabilized after a prolonged slowdown.

Electricity output was 498.7 billion kilowatt-hours in August, up 4.02 percent from July and 13.4 percent from the same period a year earlier, the statistics bureau said. Production growth in the first eight months of 2013 was 6.4 percent.

Thermal power accounts for nearly 80 percent of China’s total generation, but despite improved electricity consumption, local prices for steam coal, a grade of coal used in power generation, have continued to fall as major coal producers have cut prices to gain market share.

Chinese coal prices have fallen 17 percent so far this year to 540 renminbi, or $88.23, per ton last week, according to the Bohai-Bay Rim Steam Coal index.

Meanwhile, real estate investment rose 19.3 percent in the first eight months of 2013 from the same period a year earlier, while the revenue from property sales rose 34.4 percent, the statistics bureau said.

The increase in investment compares with an increase of 20.5 percent for the period from January to July, while the increase in revenue compares with a 37.8 percent rise in that period.

China has been trying to temper home price increases for the past four years, but its efforts have been partly undone by strong demand that has pushed up prices and by efforts by local governments to sell land to developers for much-needed revenue.

The Shanghai Composite Index ended the trading day up 1.2 percent at 2,237.98 points. The CSI300 index of the leading Shanghai and Shenzhen listings rose 1.4 percent, as both reached their highest closings since early June.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/11/business/global/economic-data-lift-chinese-stocks-to-3-month-high.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Japan Quake Is Causing Costly Shift to Fossil Fuels

“They asked me how long it would take,” said Masatake Koseki, head of the Yokosuka plant, which is 40 miles south of Tokyo and run by Tokyo Electric. “The facilities are old, so I told them six months. But they said, ‘No, you must ready them by summer to prepare for an energy shortage.’ ”

Now, at summer’s peak, Yokosuka’s two fuel-oil and two gas turbines are cranking out a total of 900,000 kilowatts of electricity — and an abundance of fumes.

The generators are helping to replace the 400 million kilowatt-hours of daily electricity production lost this summer because of the shutdown of all but 15 of Japan’s 54 nuclear reactors in the wake of the Fukushima Daiichi disaster. Across the country, dozens of other fossil-fuel plants have been fired up, and Japan is importing billions of dollars worth of liquefied natural gas, coal and oil to keep them running.

Japan, the world’s third-largest user of electricity behind China and the United States, had counted on an expansion of nuclear power to contain energy costs and greenhouse gas emissions. Instead, its nuclear program is in retreat, as the public and government officials urge a sharp reduction in the nation’s reliance on nuclear power and perhaps an end to it altogether.

As its nuclear program implodes, Japan is grappling with a jump in fuel costs, making an economic recovery from the March earthquake and tsunami all the more difficult. Annual fuel expenses could rise by more than 3 trillion yen, or about $39 billion, the government says.

The country, until recently a vocal proponent of measures to curb climate change, is also leaving a bigger carbon footprint. According to government calculations, Japan’s greenhouse gas emissions could rise by as much as 210 million metric tons, or 16 percent, by 2013 from 1990 levels if its nuclear reactors were shut permanently. Under the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, a global agreement on greenhouse gas emissions, Japan promised to reduce its emissions by 6 percent over that period.

“Can nuclear be eliminated?” asked Adam Schatzker, an energy analyst at RBC Capital Markets. “It’s possible, but very costly.”

If necessary, Japan could replace the energy capacity lost in the shutdown of its nuclear fleet by increasing the use of natural gas and coal, Mr. Schatzker said. “But even if fossil fuel facilities can make up for the loss of nuclear, it would likely take time, cost a great deal more money and pollute significantly,” he said.

For resource-poor Japan, it is an energy shift of an unprecedented scale and speed. A generation ago, the oil shock of 1973, which exposed the country’s overdependence on Middle Eastern oil, forced Japanese companies to focus on energy efficiency and prompted the government to invest heavily in nuclear power.

But as it doubled down on nuclear power plants, Japan was slow to develop alternative forms of energy, like solar or wind power, which account for just 1 percent of its electricity supply.

Prime Minister Naoto Kan has called for a gradual move away from nuclear energy, and proposed a goal of generating 20 percent of Japan’s electricity from renewable sources, including hydroelectric plants, by the early 2020s. The Parliament is debating legislation to spur that change.

A nuclear-free future could come much sooner, however. Nervous local governments have blocked the restart of reactors idled for routine inspections, which occur every 13 months. If no reactors can restart, Japan’s entire nuclear fleet, which provided 30 percent of its electricity in 2009, could be closed by spring.

The shutdowns are already causing an energy squeeze. At least three utilities have come close to full capacity during peak demand hours this summer. The government has warned that eastern Japan, including Tokyo, could face an electricity shortage of about 10 percent next summer if no nuclear plants are running.

A 10 percent shortage may not be disastrous. This summer, for example, a major energy-saving drive by households and companies drove down peak electricity demand in July by about 20 percent, to 46.3 million kilowatts, averting blackouts despite the energy shortfall, according to Tokyo Electric, the operator of the stricken Fukushima plant.

Still, “we take this situation very seriously,” Toshio Nishizawa, chief executive of Tokyo Electric, said this month. Only three of the company’s 17 nuclear reactors are running.

A protracted increase in fossil fuel costs is possible to make up for the shortfall, traders say.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/20/business/energy-environment/quake-in-japan-is-causing-a-costly-shift-to-fossil-fuels.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Green Blog: For Coal Plants, a Game of Chicken

A.E.P. has indicated that it will shut down generators at the Philip Sporn power plant in New Haven, W.Va. But some companies are waiting to see what their competitors will do.J. Kevin Fitzsimons for The New York TimesA.E.P. has indicated that it will shut down generators at the Philip Sporn power plant near New Haven, W.Va. But some companies are waiting to see what their competitors will do.Green: Business

In an article in Friday’s paper, I described how some companies that operate dirty coal-fired power plants are playing chicken as they face a decision on whether to retire them or install expensive scrubbers and filters. They are waiting to see what their neighbors will do as new environmental rules take effect: as with two restaurants in a town that can support only one, if your neighbor goes out of business, more business comes to you, and prices may well rise.

In fact, in the largest grid jurisdiction in North America, the one operated by PJM Interconnection, money comes to plant owners in several different ways. The biggest is selling energy, or kilowatt-hours, and that price varies by time of day. Plants in areas where there is a lot of congestion on the grid and new supplies cannot easily be shipped in will enjoy something close to a monopoly and take in very high revenues on peak summer days.

American Electric Power, a multistate utility based in Columbus, Ohio, has been arguing that if it and its competitors close some big low-cost plants, customers will face abrupt rate increases of 10 to 35 percent. The nature of the PJM market magnifies the importance of losing a cheap generator; all producers get the same payment, equal to the highest-cost generation running, and if a low-cost generator is retired, then the most expensive generator needed to replace it will set a higher price for everyone.

But the consulting firm Bloomberg New Energy Finance identifies a second mechanism by which prices will increase. In PJM and in parallel organizations covering New York, New England, the upper Midwest and California, electric generating stations are selling several services at once, each with its own price.

The simpler thing they sell is electricity, which is priced in units of megawatt-hours. A megawatt-hour, or 1,000 kilowatt-hours, is the amount of energy that a suburban house uses in a month or so. But they also sell capacity: each utility that serves customers has to go into the wholesale market and buy not only energy but the actual availability of generation.

There are few parallels outside the electricity world; it is as if a restaurant charged upfront for a reservation for a table, independent of the price of the food. The way the electric system works, the equivalent in a restaurant would mean paying for a table of adequate size, whether or not everybody showed up.

The capacity market is not only a way to compensate generators; it can also be used to set a value on the services of “demand response” companies. Those are companies that line up electricity customers who agree, in exchange for a payment, to turn off their equipment on peak days.

Companies that serve retail electricity customers must buy as much capacity as the retail customers used in their last peak load day, plus a margin. And this summer, many of the companies had new peak loads.

Eventually electricity customers pay for both the energy and the capacity. The mechanism is intended to compensate generators that sit idle much of the year but are really important on hot days. The price also serves as a signal to companies thinking about building new plants; if it rises high enough, they know it is time to build.

Capacity payments have mostly been low in the last few years because the recession has cut demand for electricity and supply has been high relative to demand in the auctions or individual deals between utilities that serve customers and companies that own generation.

In a research note released late Friday, Bloomberg New Energy Finance said that capacity payments in 2014 and 2015 would reach a level equal to $7 per megawatt-hour of electricity sold — in other words, about $7 on the monthly bill of that suburban house, or seven-tenths of a cent per kilowatt-hour. The national average retail price of a kilowatt-hour is about 10 cents, although in some parts of the Northeast it can be triple that amount.

Higher capacity payments are one of the mechanisms through which surviving electric plants will get the revenue needed for add-on antipollution devices.

Charles Blanchard, an analyst at Bloomberg New Energy Finance and author of the research note, said in an e-mail that capacity payments may reach 25 percent of total revenues as supply is reduced.

For the Independent System Operators, or I.S.O.’s, like PJM, the capacity problem will become more important as fewer generators are coal- or gas-fired power plants, which can be switched on at will to meet peak load, and more are wind or solar, which must be compensated for times it is not sunny or windy.

“This trend is going to continue, as intermittent resources like wind and solar force I.S.O.’s to pay to keep gas-peaking plants online even though they’re not used enough to be profitable based on electricity sales,’’ Mr. Blanchard said in an e-mail.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=fb3263b3ba2ed9e5b2cff5e2d5a627ce