December 22, 2024

Strong Debt Sale in Italy Does Little to Lift Spirits

On Friday, the Italian Treasury sold a total of about 4.8 billion euros ($6.1 billion) of debt, including 3 billion euros of three-year bonds priced to yield 4.83 percent, down sharply from the 5.62 percent it paid at the last auction of such securities in late December. But the bid-to-cover ratio for the three-year bonds, a measure of demand, was lukewarm at 1.2 times — below the 1.36 times at the last sale.

A day earlier, Spain sold 10 billion euros of bonds, twice the targeted amount, with yields falling about a full percentage point from previous auctions.

The European Central Bank began a new financing program last month to backstop banks, helping to restore a semblance of stability to the euro zone financial system and to hold down the rates that governments must pay to sell debt.

Yields rise as the price of the underlying bonds falls, so the fact that yields are lower suggests that investors have more confidence in the debtor’s ability to repay its borrowing.

But another confidence gauge — the gap, or spread, between Italian and German 10-year bonds — barely budged. Rome’s long-term borrowing costs are still more than three times higher than Berlin’s.

“The tone was broadly better in the wake of the Spanish auction and a run-up in the euro,” said Charles Diebel, head of market strategy at Lloyds Banking in London. But an unexplained delay in the announcement of the Italian results, he said, as well as the continuing uncertainty over the Greek debt restructuring talks, “took the shine off things.”

Mr. Diebel said Europe’s interbank lending market, where banks finance themselves on a short-term basis, remained “broken,” even after the E.C.B. began the longer-term refinancing operations. In December, the central bank lent 489.2 billion euros ($625 billion) for three years at its benchmark 1 percent interest rate.

“Unsecured lending between banks is just not happening,” he said.

That observation is backed up by European Central Bank data released Friday that showed that banks had deposited a record 489.9 billion euros overnight, almost the same amount lent under the three-year program. The figure has been elevated since the loans were made.

Separately, talks between Greece and private sector creditors over a restructuring of the country’s crushing debt were suspended Friday amid a continuing disagreement over how much of a loss banks and investors should take on their holdings.

While people involved in the negotiations described it as a more of a negotiating tactic than a sign that Greece was going to default, the disagreement was a reminder of how wide the gap remains between the two sides, even after months of discussions.

At issue, bankers and government officials say, is less the actual 50 percent write-down, or haircut, that investors would absorb with their new bonds than the coupon, or interest, these new instruments would carry.

Investors are pushing for a higher interest payout to mitigate their loss and the fact that their exposure to Greece will be lengthened considerably with the new bonds.

The International Monetary Fund and Germany, both of which have become increasingly worried about Greece’s ability to service its debts as its economy continues to plummet, are pushing for a lower rate that would ease Greece’s debt payments and require investors to take a bigger loss on their holdings.

Europe and the I.M.F. have said repeatedly that without a private sector deal, Greece will not get the 30 billion euros in bailout funds that it needs to avoid bankruptcy.

The negotiations have been complicated by the increased influence of a bloc of investors, largely hedge funds, who have bought billions of euros of discounted Greek debt and have said they will not participate in a restructuring. They are betting that Europe will blink and give Greece its money, and because the deal will be voluntary, the holdouts will get their payday.

With the breakup of the talks and the increased threat of a default, these investors may well choose to participate in the deal — in the hopes of getting something as opposed to the very little they would get if Greece went bankrupt.

A bank that borrows from the European Central Bank at 1 percent and then parks the funds with the central bank gets just 0.25 percent in interest, which means that institutions are losing money on their deposits.

The E.C.B.’s extension of huge amounts of funds “is about trying to provide the banking sector with liquidity, support the bond market and buy time” for European leaders to find a lasting solution, Mr. Diebel said. “It’s not a fix.”

Still, he said, by the time the next round of the E.C.B. refinancing operations goes through, in late February, “banks will have a lot of liquidity.”

If the more dire possibilities can be avoided until then, he added, “putting some of that liquidity into the bond market will be a lot more attractive.”

The cost of financing Spanish and Italian debt has been in the spotlight since last year, when contagion from the euro crisis that led Greece, Portugal and Ireland to seek bailouts began to spread.

Though Italy’s government deficit is actually much smaller than that of many other countries, including Britain and the United States, its public debt, a legacy of past spending and slow growth, is seen as dangerously high.

Landon Thomas Jr. reported from London and David Jolly from Paris.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=efc4aeb104d254ed516c010d9251ad2c

In Auctions, Reassurance For Europe

And while the central bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1 percent Thursday, the bank’s president, Mario Draghi, indicated he was prepared to take further steps to ease credit, if necessary.

The Italian Treasury found brisk demand Thursday in selling 8.5 billion euros ($10.9 billion) of 12-month bills at an interest rate of 2.735 percent. It was the lowest interest rate Italy has been able to sell one-year debt at since an auction in June — and less than half the 5.952 percent Italy had to offer at the last sale, in early December.

In Madrid, the Spanish Treasury said Thursday it sold a total of 10 billion euros ($12.8 billion) of bonds — twice the amount it had set as a target — with yields down from previous auctions. For example, $4.3 billion in three-year notes were sold at a yield of 3.384 percent, compared with 5.187 percent in December for three-year notes.

Both Spain and Italy have been under intense pressure from investors because of their public finances, with recently installed governments scrambling to push through additional austerity packages to rein in deficits and debt levels.

Both countries’ longer-term debt yields, which reflect higher risk and uncertainty, remain relatively high. Another bellwether of the crisis comes Friday, when Italy tries to auction more than $9 billion in longer-term debt. The question remains whether enough investors will bid on that debt and feel confident enough in Italy’s fiscal health to justify declining yields.

The interest rate on Italy’s 10-year debt has dipped to 6.6 percent from 7.1 percent earlier this week, though it is still unsustainably higher than the 4 percent to 5 percent it traded at for much of the last two years.

But Thursday’s solid auctions were the latest sign that shorter-term government debt has become more attractive to commercial banks and other investors since the central bank last month began a program of offering low-interest three-year loans to commercial banks in the euro currency region.

While a large portion of that money has been used simply to pay off other lenders, it has clearly eased pressures on the banks and helped free up cheap money the banks can use to purchase sovereign debt.

“We do think this decision has prevented a credit contraction that would have been much more serious,” Mr. Draghi said Thursday.

He said the central bank would continue to support commercial banks in the euro zone and predicted that the bank’s next refinancing operation, in February, would attract even more lenders.

The central bank, based in Frankfurt, left its benchmark interest rate unchanged Thursday, after having cut rates by a quarter point twice since Mr. Draghi became its president at the beginning of November. The rate cuts have been meant to help slow an economic downturn in the 17 countries in the European Union that use the euro. Mr. Draghi said the bank was pausing in its rate cutting amid what it called “tentative” signs of increased economic stability. But he indicated the central bank was prepared to take further steps, if necessary.

Analysts took Mr. Draghi’s comments as a clear sign that the central bank stands ready to reduce its benchmark interest rate below the already historic low of 1 percent to counter a recession.

“He kept the door open,” said Jacques Cailloux, the chief European economist for Royal Bank of Scotland. “He made a very clear statement that the E.C.B. stands ready to act.”

Earlier Thursday, in London, the Bank of England kept its benchmark interest rate at a record low of 0.5 percent as the British government’s tough fiscal measures and the crisis in the euro zone exacerbated economic problems.

The Bank of England also voted to continue with its existing bond purchasing program of £275 billion ($422 billion). Many economists expect the British central bank to expand the asset-buying program at its next meeting in February in a bid to pump more capital into the economy.

Some economists expect the central bank to move as early as next month for a rate cut. But others predict that the governing council will hold off until March, when a fresh growth forecast for the euro zone is to be issued.

Reporting was contributed by Julia Werdigier from London, David Jolly from Paris and Raphael Minder from Madrid.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/13/business/global/bank-of-england-holds-main-rate-steady.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Pressure Builds on Italy and Spain Over Finances

The Italian economy minister, Giulio Tremonti, called a meeting of the country’s financial authorities Tuesday to discuss the recent market turmoil, Reuters reported, citing an unidentified official. The Italian Treasury did not respond to calls seeking comment.

In Madrid, meanwhile, Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero delayed the start of a planned vacation to the southern region of Andalucia. Reuters quoted the secretary of state for communications as saying the prime minister wanted to “more closely monitor the evolution of the economic indicators.”

The lack of investor confidence in both countries is threatening to push their borrowing costs to unsustainable levels and drag the eye of the fiscal storm away from Greece, Portugal and Ireland.

The yield on 10-year benchmark Italian bonds was up 0.12 percentage point, at 6.11 percent, in afternoon trading in Europe, after rising as high as 6.21 percent in the morning, the highest level since November 1997, according to Bloomberg News. That increased the difference in yield, or spread, over equivalent German securities, to 3.71 percentage points, the widest gap — an indicator of risk — since before the euro was introduced in 1999.

Spanish 10-year yields were up 0.09 percentage point, at 6.25 percent, in afternoon trading, after rising as high as 6.39 percent. The spread over the 10-year German bond rose to 3.84 percentage points.

Last Friday, the same day Moody’s Investors Service put Spain on watch for a possible downgrade, citing “funding pressures,” Mr. Zapatero called early general elections for Nov. 20. That raised the prospect of having a lame-duck administration in power until the end of the year.

Chiara Corsa, an Italian economist at UniCredit in Milan, said the meeting Tuesday in Rome appeared to be an emergency response to market volatility. She said she was skeptical about whether it would produce any meaningful steps to address investor concerns.

Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi is scheduled to address Parliament on Wednesday to discuss the economic situation.

He has been mostly silent in recent weeks as investor sentiment against the country has soured. His administration has appeared divided in the wake of several heavy defeats in local polls.

There have also been doubts about the future of the economy minister, Mr. Tremonti, a budget hardliner who has appeared increasingly estranged from Mr. Berlusconi. Mr. Tremonti also faces the distraction of a corruption investigation into a former aide surrounding the rental of a luxury apartment in Rome.

Ms. Corsa, the economist, said the prime minister was expected to come up with a statement of intent for increasing the country’s growth potential. There has also been speculation that the government might introduce new measures to tax personal wealth as a means of bolstering revenue in the near term.

The volatility might be calmed if the European authorities are able to quickly implement their recent decision to use the European Union’s bailout fund, known as the European Financial Stability Facility, to buy Italian bonds in the secondary market. But it remains unclear how soon that might occur, analysts said.

“Italy doesn’t need a bailout,” Ms. Corsa said. “It has room to sustain these levels of interest rates for some time. But if yields keep rising, the situation will worsen.”

The meeting in Rome was bringing together representatives from the Economy Ministry, the Bank of Italy, the market regulator Consob and the insurance authority, according to Reuters.

In July, the government approved a €48 billion, or $68 billion, package of austerity measures aimed at helping to bring the budget into balance by 2014. But that failed to improve overall sentiment, which is dragged down mainly by the country’s chronically weak growth.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=65ef67aabf23c6e92cac4ba6661ff433