November 14, 2024

DealBook: Bank of Ireland Bond Sale Confirms a Credit Boom

The Bank of Ireland in central Dublin.Peter Morrison/Associated PressThe Bank of Ireland in central Dublin.

Investors’ appetite for Bank of Ireland bonds has changed a lot in the last four years.

In September 2009, the Irish lender, which received a 4.8 billion euro ($6.2 billion) bailout during the financial crisis, was forced to offer investors a return of around 4.6 percent to sell $1.3 billion of three-and-a-half year bonds.

Yet when the bank returned to the European corporate bond market last week, the yield, or interest rate, had almost halved, to 2.75 percent, on its $650 million of unsecured three-year bonds.

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More important, the issuance was almost three times oversubscribed, as investors clamored to secure access to the relatively risky bonds.

“Ireland has recovered strongly in the past couple of years,” said Christopher Whitman, global head of risk syndicate at Deutsche Bank in London, which helped sell the bonds to investors. “Many credit investors are now comfortable with Ireland, as well as with the Bank of Ireland.”

The demand for the Bank of Ireland’s bonds is the latest example of the credit boom that is gripping Europe.

Despite concerns about the Continent’s wider economy, companies including global giants like Siemens and Barclays as well as smaller local firms have issued more than $430 billion of bonds this year, according to the credit ratings agency Standard Poor’s. In contrast, companies in the United States have pocketed around $380 billion.

The bonanza has eased the short-term financing troubles for many of Europe’s struggling companies.

With banks cutting back on lending to meet more stringent capital requirements, the debt markets have provided companies an opportunity to refinance maturing loans, often at reduced interest rates. The new financing has also helped offset the impact of dwindling sales caused by the financial crisis.

Even in debt-ridden southern European countries like Greece and Portugal, companies have found willing bondholders to back new issuances.

The Greek oil-refining company Hellenic Petroleum, for example, raised $650 million in four-year bonds on April 30, after it offered investors an annual return of 8 percent. Portucel, a Portuguese paper manufacturer, also won backing in mid-May for its seven-year bonds worth a combined $455 million. The company had offered investors a return of 5.4 percent.

In total, European companies have issued $64.1 billion of high-yield bonds this year, almost double the amount compared with the same period in 2012, according to the data provider Dealogic.

Europe’s banking sector has also gotten into the financing act.

Faced with regulatory demands to increase their financing reserves, a number of large European financial institutions, including UBS of Switzerland and BBVA of Spain, have issued so-called contingent capital, or CoCos, to fill the void.

These complex financial instruments offer bondlike returns to investors, but convert to equity — or, in some cases, wipe out bondholders’ investments altogether — if a bank’s capital falls below a certain threshold. European banks have raised almost $5 billion through these products this year, and analysts expect more issuances by the end of the year.

“CoCos are an attractive option for some of Europe’s largest banks,” said James Longsdon, a managing director at the credit ratings agency Fitch Ratings.

While Europe’s corporate and financial sectors have benefited from the near record amount of bond issuances so far this year, analysts worry that investors may be setting themselves up for trouble.

As demand for new corporate bonds has outstripped supply, many investors are now looking to buy debt from noninvestment grade companies in the so-called high yield market.

These companies once had to guarantee double-digit returns to entice investors to part with their money. Now, the average coupon, or return, on offer in the European high-yield market has fallen to around 6 percent, almost an all-time low.

For some, that still represents a healthy return.

But other investors fret that the falling yields do not compensate for the dangers associated with backing these somewhat risky companies. The returns have plunged in the last 12 months because more investors are fighting for access to the bonds, which allows companies to reduce the interest rate payments that they offer to bondholders.

For analysts, the concern is that investors may face major losses if companies cannot repay the borrowed money when interest rates start to rise.

“Investors will get absolutely shellacked,” said Robin Doumar, managing partner of Park Square Capital, a company based in London that invests in debt financing. “As rates rise, investors will get savaged by both interest rate and credit risk. This will end in tears.”

Article source: http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/06/02/bank-of-ireland-bond-sale-confirms-a-credit-boom/?partner=rss&emc=rss

DealBook: In a Switch, Investors Are Buying European Bank Bonds

Bank of Ireland raised $1.27 billion on Tuesday in its most significant bond issue in more than three years.Shawn Pogatchnik/Associated PressBank of Ireland raised $1.27 billion on Tuesday in its most significant bond issue in more than three years.

LONDON — European bank debt, once an investment pariah, is suddenly popular.

In recent weeks, money managers have been readily buying the new bonds of the region’s financial institutions, deals that just months ago would have seemed unpalatable. Bank of Ireland, which received a bailout in 2010, sold $1.3 billion of bonds on Tuesday and found strong demand. It was the largest offering by an Irish bank without a government guarantee in almost three years.

The gradual thawing of the capital markets is a good sign for the region’s banks. In the midst of the crisis, institutions, especially in troubled economies like Ireland and Portugal, have been struggling to raise money from private investors. The latest deals will help bolster banks’ capital levels and strengthen their balance sheets.

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But the bonds could leave investors exposed, especially given the precarious situation in Europe. The sovereign debt crisis continues to weigh on the economy. The financial markets remain volatile. And profit at the region’s banks is flagging.

“It’s a great time to be issuing high-yield debt but not to be investing in it,” said Robin Doumar, managing partner at the private equity firm Park Square Capital.

For now, bondholders are taking comfort in the policy makers’ response to the sovereign debt crisis.

On Thursday, the British bank Barclays sold $3 billion of 10-year bonds at 7.6 percent.Neil Hall/ReutersOn Thursday, the British bank Barclays sold $3 billion of 10-year bonds at 7.6 percent.

In late August, the European Central Bank began an unlimited bond-buying program aimed at lowering countries’ borrowing costs and breathing life into local economies. By essentially offering a blank check to help Europe’s troubled governments, policy makers calmed short-term fears that some of the region’s banks might need to be bailed out, reviving interest in the companies’ bonds.

“The biggest driver of demand has been the policy responses from the European Central Bank,” said Melissa Smith, head of European high-grade debt capital markets at JPMorgan Chase in London. “It’s provided stability as policy makers have stated their commitment to preserving the euro zone.”

With interest rates at record lows, European bank debt looks especially appealing to investors.

On Thursday, the British bank Barclays sold $3 billion of 10-year bonds at 7.6 percent. The Portuguese lender Banco Espírito Santo recently issued $958 million worth of debt at 5.9 percent.

By comparison, a 10-year Treasury is paying 1.8 percent. Germany has offered a negative yield on some of its sovereign debt maturities this year.

Even the yields on junk bonds, the risky corporate debt that pays high interest rates, are coming down as investors pile into such securities. The average yield is now just 5.8 percent, according to a Bank of America Merrill Lynch index. Historically, they have paid 10 percent or even more.

“There’s been a huge contraction,” said Robert Ellison, head of European debt capital markets for financial institutions at UBS in London.

The industry has been quick to capitalize on investors’ desperate hunt for returns. Banks in Europe have issued a combined $318 billion of unsecured debt so far this year, almost triple the amount raised by their American counterparts, according to the data provider Dealogic.

The capital markets are being discerning. This year, well-financed companies in Northern Europe, like Nordea Bank of Sweden, have been able to sell the largest lots of bonds at relatively reasonable rates. Smaller banks, particularly in Southern Europe, have had to offer investors better rates to win support for their bond deals.

Even so, it is a stark contrast from almost a year ago. With the capital markets paralyzed, the European Central Bank then had to step in to stabilize the banks, offering $1.3 trillion in short-term, low-cost loans to financial companies.

As they find renewed interest from private investors, European banks can more easily raise money, fortifying their balance sheets in case of unexpected losses. At regulators’ behest, financial institutions in the region have been increasing their capital levels.

But bond investors, in their thirst for yield, may be overlooking signs of potential trouble.

Barclays, for instance, sold a controversial type of debt, known as contingent convertible bonds. With these so-called CoCo bonds, investors can be wiped out if the bank’s capital falls below a certain threshold. While Barclays’ balance sheet is in good shape, bondholders’ willingness to accept such conditions highlights the risks in the market. Traditional bondholders can usually recoup at least some of their principal even if a company goes bankrupt.

At the same time, many European financial institutions are still in fragile shape. The Bank of Ireland, in which the Irish government still has a small stake, is struggling to divest itself of many risky loans that it made before the financial crisis. Portugal’s economy is also expected to contract 3 percent this year, which will probably depress the earnings of Banco Espírito Santo.

The question for investors is whether the reward is worth the risk.

Article source: http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/11/15/in-a-switch-investors-are-buying-european-bank-bonds/?partner=rss&emc=rss

Economix Blog: Your Economic Outlook: Mixed Up

Screen shot of The Times’s interactive feature.

Contradictory data are nothing new in economics, but amid the slump in the United States and Europe, readers may find themselves paying increasing attention to indicators that seem to point every which way.

Corporate earnings in the United States grew in 2011 — but that growth has slowed. Household income has fallen farther since the recession officially ended in June 2009 than it did during the recession itself. The American economy gained 103,000 new jobs in September, according to figures released Friday, but unemployment remained high at 9.1 percent. And of course, all this information is available through more and more channels, media, devices and platforms.

With this in mind, The Times last week presented an interactive feature, “What’s Your Economic Outlook?” We asked readers to express their views on four topics: their job status, their upcoming spending plans, job prospects for the next generation and the state of the economy next year. Participants were asked to choose from a list of words to summarize their view, and to explain in a few words.

More than 5,600 completed submissions, and the results show a broad range of results. Some of the results were unsurprising: people who described themselves as unemployed were mostly more pessimistic than people with jobs. But the distinctions between groups were suggestive: respondents in their 60s seemed a bit more pessimistic about the next generation than did respondents in their 20s.

Even more notable, perhaps, were the comments that readers left to explain their views. Readers who seemed most optimistic often explained themselves with reference to plans they were following or had made. One wrote:

We scaled back our lifestyle years before the downturn, so this recession hasn’t affected us like people who are in debt.

Another:

We have budgeted well for upcoming expenses and I feel comfortable with our income streams.

Many comments from readers with a negative outlook described dire circumstances, and more than a few sounded a note of desperation:

Seven people used to do my job. Now there are only two of us. Nobody cares. Drowning.

And:

I have no money. Barely buying food. No help available for single men.

Many younger contributors saw their own opportunities as narrowing, with high levels of debt and few well-paying jobs:

Because previous generations have left my generation with crushing burdens and almost no safety net.

And:

There is nothing left for the next generation, only a small percentage will see the success of previous generations.

A few young contributors sounded an exuberant note about potential development:

There are so many incredible opportunities arising in new fields.

And:

Because my generation was raised to be innovative, and we will find a way to improve the current landscape.

In what could be interpreted as a sign of optimism, on the whole, contributors seemed to be slightly more hopeful about their own prospects — for work and for spending — than for the economy as a whole or for the next generation. That view jibes with some recent statistical evidence, suggesting that the disparity in outlooks reflects sentiments just as mixed as the other economic signals.

The full interactive feature will remain online.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=2d41b94d0710812a3e815bdd99ee9888

DealBook: UBS Expects ‘Modest’ Profit Despite Trading Scandal

Toby Melville/ReutersKweku M. Adoboli, appearing in a London court last month, is accused of costing UBS $2.3 billion.
Interactive Timeline: Struggles at Swiss Banking Giant

The embattled Swiss bank UBS said on Tuesday that it would post a third-quarter profit despite a $2.3 billion loss from unauthorized trades discovered last month.

In addition to a “modest” profit, UBS said it continued to attract net new money to its wealth management operation in the quarter, which ended Sept. 30. The company is set to report detailed third-quarter earnings on Oct. 25.

“UBS expects to report a modest net profit for the group and positive net new money in its wealth management business,” the bank said in a statement before European markets opened.

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The profit was the result of gains on the valuation of the bank’s own credit, the sale of Treasury-related investments in the Swiss wealth management unit and low tax charges, the statement said.

The announcement comes after a turbulent third quarter for the bank, based in Zurich. Oswald J. Grübel resigned as chief executive in September over a trading scandal that landed a midlevel employee in police custody, charged with fraud and false accounting.

It also reflects broader weakness at European banks, which have been dealing with the fallout from the sovereign debt crisis. On Tuesday, Deutsche Bank warned that it would miss its profit target for the year. The same day, France and Belgium agreed to back Dexia, as a result of fears that its exposure to Greek debt could lead to the bank’s collapse.

Some analysts called the news at UBS positive, given that the bank had said just three weeks ago that the rogue trades might lead to a loss for the quarter. Dirk Becker, a Frankfurt-based analyst at Kepler Capital Markets, called the results disappointing, however.

“The news of third-quarter profit is not as positive as it may appear at first glance because the gains UBS booked have nothing to do with normal business,” he told Bloomberg News.

Investors responded poorly, too. Shares in UBS fell 1.3 percent at the open of trading.

The interim chief executive, Sergio P. Ermotti, head of Europe, the Middle East and Africa at UBS, pledged to continue with Mr. Grübel’s plan to shrink the investment banking operation and focus on wealth management.

The third-quarter results also include about 400 million Swiss francs ($435 million) of costs related to a restructuring that includes the elimination of thousands of jobs, UBS said.

The cost-cutting program was “on track,” the bank said, adding that the majority of employees whose jobs would be affected by the cuts have been informed. The bank plans to continue to invest in Asia, Latin America and its global wealth management operation.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=6e1a4b0270736ea38f4d2ce7745b33f8

DealBook: Europe Readies Plan for Tax on Financial Transactions

José Manuel Barroso, the president of the European Commission.Jonathan Fickies/Bloomberg NewsJosé Manuel Barroso, the president of the European Commission.

6:09 p.m. | Updated

BRUSSELS — The European Commission is expected to unveil a detailed plan on Wednesday to create a financial transaction tax, despite the opposition of several member countries and a formal acknowledgement that it could have a significant negative effect on the European Union’s gross domestic product.

The plan, which has the strong support of France and Germany, will be discussed in a speech before the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France, by José Manuel Barroso, the president of the commission, the executive arm of the European Union.

The measure will probably include taxes on the purchase of stocks and bonds; derivatives will probably be taxed at a lower rate. Transactions on the currency markets are not expected to be included.

Critics are expected to highlight a formal study regarding the proposal’s economic effects.

“With a tax rate of 0.1 percent, the model shows a drop in G.D.P. (minus 1.76 percent) in the long run,” according to a draft of the plan.

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One European Union official, who asked not to be identified because the proposal had not been published, said the actual effect would be less significant, because the assumptions used in the final proposal differed from those in an impact study.

He also suggested that the tax rate proposed on at least some transactions might be lower than 0.1 percent, and that the proposal would exempt the purchase of stocks and bonds when they were first issued. The impact study had assumed the tax applied to all transactions, he said.

Nevertheless, the proposal is highly divisive. France and Germany see it as a method of requiring the financial sector to provide compensation for some of the damage sustained in the economic crisis. They also think the tax can help deter more speculative transactions, which may provide little benefit to the real economy.

“The basic idea is that taxes could improve financial sector stability and the functioning of the market,” the draft proposal says.

But Sweden and Britain are among those in opposition, saying that unless the levy can be adopted globally, the measure will simply drive financial institutions away from the European Union.

Prospects of a global deal were quashed earlier this month when the United States Treasury secretary, Timothy F. Geithner, told European finance ministers he would not agree to such a tax in the United States.

After Mr. Geithner’s comments, Belgium’s finance minister, Didier Reynders, called for Europeans to press ahead with their own proposal, perhaps including only the 17 nations that use the euro, if all 27 members of the European Union could not agree.

If a euro zone agreement is impossible, a smaller group of countries could go ahead with their own low-level tax.

The Swedish finance minister, Anders Borg, explained this month the opposition of his country, which does not use the euro.

“We have substantial experience in Sweden,” he said. “Basically, most of our derivative and bond trading went to London during the years we had a financial transaction tax, so if you don’t get a solution that is universal, it is very likely to be detrimental for European financial markets.”

The European Union official declined to say what tax rate would be proposed. In the past, the European Commission has suggested a rate of 0.1 percent for trading stocks and bonds and 0.01 percent for derivatives.

Article source: http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/09/27/europe-readies-plan-for-tax-on-financial-transactions/?partner=rss&emc=rss