November 22, 2024

Home Building Sags Again

Work began on a seasonally adjusted 571,000 homes last month, a 5 percent decline from July, according to the Commerce Department. That’s less than half of the 1.2 million that economists say is consistent with healthy housing markets.

Single-family homes, which represent roughly two-thirds of home construction, fell 1.4 percent. Apartment building plunged 12.4 percent. Building permits, a gauge of future construction, rose 3.2 percent. One cause of the downturn was Hurricane Irene, which slowed construction in the Northeast.

Over all, homebuilding fell to its lowest levels in 50 years in 2009, when builders began work on just 554,000 homes. Last year was not much better.

While home construction represents a small portion of the housing market, it has an outsize impact on the economy. Each home built creates an average of three jobs for a year and about $90,000 in taxes, according to the National Association of Home Builders.

After previous recessions, housing accounted for at least 15 percent of economic growth in the United States. Since the recession officially ended in June 2009, it has contributed just 4 percent.

Cash-strapped builders are struggling to compete with deeply discounted foreclosures and short sales, when lenders allow borrowers to sell homes for less than what is owed on their mortgages. And few homes are selling.

New-home sales fell in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 298,000, the weakest pace in five months. This year is shaping up to be the worst for sales on records dating back a half-century.

Renting has become a preferred option for many Americans who lost their jobs during the recession and were forced to leave their homes. Still, the surge in apartments has not been enough to offset the loss of single-family homebuilding.

Another reason sales have fallen is that previously occupied homes are a better deal than new homes. The median price of a new home is nearly 28 percent higher than the median price for a re-sale. That’s almost twice the markup in a healthy housing market.

The trade group said Monday that its survey of industry sentiment fell slightly to 14 in September. The index has been below 20 for all but one month during the past two years. Any reading below 50 indicates negative sentiment about the housing market. The index hasn’t reached 50 since April 2006, the peak of the housing boom.

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Housing Starts Rose 14% in June

The pace of new construction of private homes in the United States last month was the highest since January, according to government figures released on Tuesday, but economists warned that the sector had still not stabilized for a full recovery.

Builders broke ground at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 629,000 units in June, a rise of more than 14 percent compared with the previous month and a rate that was 16.7 percent higher than June 2010, the Department of Commerce reported.

It was the highest since January, when construction starts came in at a 636,000-unit annual rate.

The numbers are used as an indicator of future economic activity because of their implications for consumer spending, hiring, housing inventory, prices and other factors.

But the data is also volatile, subject to seasonal and other influences. A report on the statistics from Capital Economics economists said that the June survey reflected the wake of severe weather in the previous months.

Last month’s increase “is not the start of a significant and sustained surge in homebuilding,” the report said. “Instead, it reflects a rebound in activity after the unusually severe tornados and floods depressed starts in both April and May.”

The rate for construction starts on single-family homes was 453,000 in June, up 9.3 percent from May, while the rate for buildings with five units or more was 170,000, up 31.8 percent, the report said.

The report also said that permits for new construction, an indicator of future activity, rose by 2.5 percent from May to a seasonally adjusted rate of 624,000 in June. It was up 6.7 percent compared with June 2010.

Within that category, permits for multifamily units rose 6.9 percent to a 217,000 annual rate, the highest level since October 2008. The category was up in the South, West and Midwest, but down in the Northeast.

“For once in a long time, there was some good news in this report,” said Patrick Newport, an economist at IHS Global Insight. “The market for multifamily homes is coming back to life — very slowly — but the foundations are in place.

“But this is partly because the single-family market is falling so badly people are inclined to rent,” he added.

The survey also showed that completion of new homes took place at a rate of 535,000, which was 1.7 percent higher than in May. With a glut of new homes already on the market, adding to the inventory would tend to dampen prices, economists said.

“The addition of new supply to the housing market isn’t really constructive insofar as housing prices are concerned, but any uptick in new-home construction should offer some relief on the employment front,” said Kevin H. Giddis, the executive managing director and president for fixed-income capital markets at Morgan Keegan Company, in a research note.

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