April 25, 2024

Dodd-Frank Paperwork a Bonanza for Consultants and Lawyers

That’s the fee just for parsing the proper definition of a bank-owned hedge fund. Longer and more complex regulatory missives, weighing in on who should be deemed too big to fail or how derivatives are traded, can easily cost twice as much.

These comment letters could save Wall Street banks billions of dollars if they help persuade policy makers to adopt a more lenient interpretation of the coming rules. And white-shoe law firms like Debevoise Plimpton are cranking them out by the dozen.

Call it Dodd-Frank Inc. A year after Congress passed the broadest financial overhaul since the Great Depression, the law has spawned a host of new businesses to help Wall Street comply — and capitalize — on the hundreds of new regulations.

Besides the lawyers, there are legions of corporate accountants, financial consultants, risk management advisers, turnaround artists and technology vendors all vying for their cut.

 “It is a full-employment act,” said Gregory J. Lyons, a partner at Debevoise, where a team of a half-dozen lawyers has drafted 30-plus comment letters in the last six months.

“The law is passed, but we are still reasonably early in the process,” Mr. Lyons said. “There is still a lot to be written.”

New regulation has long been one of Washington’s unofficial job creation tools. After the enactment of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act in the late 1970s, hundreds of lawyers and accountants were hired by companies to strengthen their internal controls. The Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 became a boon for the Big Four accounting firms as public corporations were forced to tighten compliance in the wake of the Enron and WorldCom scandals.

Now, the Dodd-Frank Act is quickly becoming such a gold mine that even Wall Street bankers, never ones to undercharge, are complaining that the costs are running amok.  

“It’s basically lawyers, hired guns and money,” said the chief financial officer of a major Wall Street firm, who was not authorized to speak publicly on the matter. “Everyone has an angle.”

No one yet is tracking all the money being spent to deal with Dodd-Frank (which in itself could be an entrepreneurial venture), but a back-of-the-envelope calculation puts it in the billions of dollars.

And that’s not even counting the roughly $1.9 billion spent by companies lobbying on financial issues since the regulatory overhaul was first proposed in early 2009, according to the Center for Responsive Politics.

The bulk of the lobbying tab was spent in the two years before Dodd-Frank took effect. Now firms are spending similarly eye-popping sums to comply with or battle against the rules emerging from the law. They are turning to existing companies that have started dedicated teams like the one at Debevoise Plimpton, as well as start-ups like the Invictus Consulting Group.

When Kamal Mustafa founded Invictus in early 2008, few banks underwent routine stress tests to assess their financial health. Now, the new law requires the nation’s largest banks to conduct annual stress tests, while regulators are leaning hard on smaller lenders to take similar measures. As a result, Invictus’s business — dispensing advice on how to properly administer those exams — has taken off.

“You can stress-test all you want, but somebody has to validate the results,” Mr. Mustafa said. “That’s a massive opportunity.”

Regulators from seven states — including California, New Jersey and Pennsylvania — have hired his firm, Mr. Mustafa said, and he is selectively signing up two to four new bank clients a month. Annual advisory fees start at $20,000 and can reach $100,000 or more.

With business booming, Mr. Mustafa said he planned to hire 40 to 50 former bankers in the coming months, almost quadrupling his current staff. And in May, Invictus established its first European outpost: a London office focused on overseas banks and regulators.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=e47d4ed28b42c29b5078209ff5c06947

Stocks and Bonds: It Zigs, It Zags: U.S. Market Rises 4% After a Down Day

In a display of wild volatility, the American stock market this week has produced alternating days of collapsing prices — accompanied by speculation of a renewed financial crisis that could be even worse than the one that began in 2008 — and sharply rising prices amid reassurances that banks are healthy and corporate profits strong.

On Thursday, the Standard Poor’s 500-stock index soared 51.88 points, or 4.6 percent to 1,172.64. Traders pointed to a small decline in claims for unemployment insurance in the United States and to reassurances from French officials that their country’s banks were safe.

That gain recovered all of a 4.4 percent decline on Wednesday. For the two days, the index was up 0.11 points, or one one-hundredth of 1 percent. On Monday, the market had fallen by 6.7 percent, only to leap by 4.7 percent on Tuesday. So far this week, the index is down by 2.2 percent.

“It is a very, very tense, emotional and momentum-driven market right now,” said Eric Thorne, an investment adviser at Bryn Mawr Trust, a Pennsylvania bank. The apparent motto, he added, is “shoot first, ask questions later.”

Never before in the history of the S. P. index, which goes back to 1928, had there been alternating gains and losses of more than 4 percent on four days. In most years, there were no such days at all.

There were only two previous times since the Great Depression when the S. P. 500 moved at least 4 percent in four consecutive trading sessions. The first came in October 1987, when the market crashed, and the second occurred in November 2008, as the financial crisis intensified. But neither of those saw alternating gains and losses. In each of those cases, the pattern was two declines, then two gains.

This year, market worries began to intensify in late July, as European leaders reached yet another agreement to provide emergency funding for Greece, which cannot borrow in the markets, and as a Congressional impasse threatened to prevent an increase in the American debt ceiling, which could have led to default. At the same time, sharp revisions in recent economic data raised concerns that the United States economy might be entering a new recession.

The worries accelerated last week, as borrowing costs shot up for two large European economies, Spain and Italy, and Friday night Standard Poor’s credit ratings arm lowered the rating of United States Treasury bonds to AA+, from AAA.

The European Central Bank tried to calm markets by beginning to buy Italian and Spanish bonds on Monday, but then traders appeared to grow nervous about French government bonds. Those worries soon spread to French banks, which hold many such bonds, and their prices fell sharply on Wednesday.

That panic appeared to peak early Thursday morning, New York time, when a Reuters report, which did not identify its sources, said at least one bank in Asia had cut its credit lines to the major French banks and that others were reviewing their lines because of perceived risks. The French stock market, which had been about level for the day, fell more than 3 percent within an hour, and American stock index futures fell sharply.

But there was no confirmation of the report, and it was denied by both bankers and officials in Paris. Prices quickly recovered.

Frédéric Oudéa, the chief executive of Société Générale, whose shares have suffered the most in recent days, told Le Figaro, the French newspaper, in an interview published Thursday that the bank had “suffered a series of attacks in the market,” on the basis of rumors about its financial condition that he denied “most vigorously.”

An announcement that the leaders of Germany and France would meet might have helped stocks strengthen, said Paul G. Christopher, chief international investment strategist for Wells Fargo Advisors. “The markets need to have reassurance from governments that they are going to take care of their budget deficits and going to backstop their banks,” he said.

The stock market collapse during the financial crisis in 2008 and 2009 is still fresh in the minds of many investors, but so too is the sharp rebound in share prices that began in the spring of 2009, when the credit crisis was at its height. Those competing memories appear to have contributed to the wild swings, with investors alternately fearful of a collapse and worried that they might get out at the bottom.

While the American economy has been stumbling since the last recession officially ended in June 2009, corporate profits have risen to record levels. Cisco, the large American technology company, reported surprisingly strong earnings on Wednesday, and its share price leaped 16 percent. But that gain still left the price a little lower than it was two weeks ago.

Eric Dash contributed reporting.

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Economic View: What’s With All the Bernanke Bashing?

He left a comfortable professorship at Princeton to run the Federal Reserve — and this is what he gets.

Mr. Bernanke has worked tirelessly to shepherd the economy through the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, and yet, for all his efforts, seems vastly underappreciated.

CNBC recently asked people, “Do you have confidence in the way Ben Bernanke is handling the economy?” Ninety-five percent of the respondents said no.

Yes, the CNBC survey was hardly scientific. Nonetheless, it reflected the deep unease that many Americans feel about our central bank and its policies. Critics on both the left and right see much to dislike in how Mr. Bernanke and his Fed colleagues have been doing their jobs.

Let’s review the complaints.

Critics on the left look at the depth of the recent recession and the meager economic recovery we are experiencing and argue that the Fed should have done more. They fear that the United States might slip into a long malaise akin to Japan’s lost decade, in which unemployment remains high and the risks of deflation deter people from borrowing, investing and returning the economy to its potential.

Critics on the right, meanwhile, worry that the Fed has increased the nation’s monetary base at a historically unprecedented pace while keeping interest rates near zero — an approach that they say will eventually ignite inflation. Some in this camp have gone so far as to propose repealing the Fed’s dual mandate of simultaneously maintaining price stability — that is, holding inflation at bay — while maximizing sustainable employment. Better, these people say, to replace those twin goals with a single-minded focus on inflation.

Yet Mr. Bernanke’s record shows that the fears of both sides have been exaggerated.

Mr. Bernanke became the Fed chairman in February 2006. Since then, the inflation measure favored by the Fed — the price index for personal consumption, excluding food and energy — has averaged 1.9 percent, annualized. A broader price index that includes food and energy has averaged 2.1 percent.

Either way, the outcome is remarkably close to the Fed’s unofficial inflation target of 2 percent. So, despite the economic turmoil of the last five years, the Fed has kept inflation on track.

Of course, this record could come undone in future years. Yet the signals in the financial markets are reassuring. The interest rate on a 10-year Treasury bond, for instance, is now about 2.8 percent. A 10-year inflation-protected Treasury bond yields about 0.4 percent.

The difference between those yields, the so-called “break-even inflation rate,” is the inflation rate at which the two bonds earn the same return. That figure is now a bit over 2 percent, a sign that the market does not expect inflation in the coming decade to differ much from that experienced over the last five years. Inflation expectations are anchored at close to their target rate.

Could the Fed have done substantially more to avoid the recession and promote recovery? Probably not. The Fed used its main weapon against recession — cuts in short-term interest rates — aggressively as the depth of the downturn became apparent. And it turned to various unconventional weapons as well, including two rounds of quantitative easing — essentially buying bonds — in an attempt to lower long-term interest rates.

A few economists have argued, with some logic, that the employment picture would be brighter if the Fed raised its target for inflation above 2 percent. They say higher expected inflation would lower real interest rates, thus encouraging borrowing. That, in turn, would expand the aggregate demand for goods and services. With more demand for their products, companies would increase hiring.

Even if that were true, a higher inflation target is a political nonstarter. Economists are divided about whether a higher target makes sense, and the public would likely oppose a more rapidly rising cost of living. If Chairman Bernanke ever suggested increasing inflation to, say, 4 percent, he would quickly return to being Professor Bernanke.

What the Fed could do, however, is codify its projected price path of 2 percent. That is, the Fed could announce that, hereafter, it would aim for a price level that rises 2 percent a year. And it would promise to pursue policies to get back to the target price path if shocks to the economy ever pushed the actual price level away from it.

Such an announcement could help mollify critics on both the left and right. If we started to see the Japanese-style deflation that the left fears, the Fed would maintain a loose monetary policy and even allow a bit of extra inflation to make up for past tracking errors. If we faced the high inflation that worries the right, the Fed would be committed to raising interest rates aggressively to bring inflation back on target.

MORE important, an announced target path for inflation would add more certainty to the economy. Americans planning their retirement would have a better sense about the cost of living a decade or two hence. Companies borrowing in the bond market could more accurately pin down the real cost of financing their investment projects.

Mr. Bernanke cannot remove all of the uncertainty that households and businesses face, but he can eliminate one small piece of it. Less uncertainty would, other things being equal, encourage spending and promote more rapid recovery. It might even raise Mr. Bernanke’s approval ratings a bit.

N. Gregory Mankiw is a professor of economics at Harvard. He is advising Mitt Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, in the campaign for the Republican presidential nomination.

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Recession Slows Migration, Census Finds

About 10.5 million Americans changed counties from 2009 to 2010, or about 3.5 percent of the population, the lowest percentage since 1947, when the government first started tracking the numbers, according to census data released this week.

It was fewer than the 11 million who moved the previous year, and down by a third from the 15.8 million who moved from 2004 to 2005, when the economy was doing well.

The number caps a decade whose final years had steep declines in migration, as the recession and effects of the housing crisis continue to freeze Americans in place, said Kenneth Johnson, the senior demographer at the Carsey Institute at the University of New Hampshire.

Mobility tends to slow in times of economic hardship, like the Great Depression in the 1930s and the energy crisis in the 1970s.

But unlike in past recessions, when some areas like Texas and Florida that had traditionally had high population increases kept receiving migrants, the most recent recession touched all areas of the country, Mr. Johnson said. Florida registered a decline during the past decade for the first time since the 1940s.

“I expected it to tick back up this year, but that didn’t happen,” Mr. Johnson said of domestic migration, which measures the number of American citizens moving between counties.

Another barometer of economic vitality, immigration, which measures people moving into the United States from other countries, also declined. It was down by half from the 1.8 million who arrived from 2004 to 2005.

In all, about 37 million Americans moved from 2009 to 2010, including those who moved within the same county, according to the data, which came from an annual survey of about 100,000 households. That is about the same as the number who migrated in the previous year.

People who move between counties or states are less likely to do so for housing reasons than those moving shorter distances, Mr. Johnson said. Those going shorter distances represent about two-thirds of all movers.

About 4 out of 10 movers cited housing-related reasons. Another third said they had moved for family reasons, and about 16 percent said job reasons.

People with incomes below the poverty line were more likely to move than those just above it, according to the data.

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Off the Charts: A Recovery Less Robust Than in the ’70s

But by most other measures, the current recovery is far weaker.

Those two downturns were the longest since the Great Depression. The country’s economy took two years to regain its former size in the 1970s, and three years in the recent recession. In each case the stock market lost about half its value and then began a powerful rally a few months before the recession officially ended.

Just 26 months after the market hit its low in early 2009, the Standard Poor’s 500-stock index had doubled, by the end of April. By contrast, the market took more than five years to double after it began to advance in late 1974.

Similarly, the manufacturing economy has rebounded sharply. Industrial production and durable goods orders have risen much more rapidly than they did in the earlier period.

Still, the overall economy, as measured by gross domestic product, rose less than 5 percent in the two years after the market hit bottom, compared with a gain of almost 7 percent during the comparable period in the 1970s.

Personal income, adjusted for inflation and excluding government transfer payments, is up less than half as much as it was in the earlier period. And while private sector employers added jobs at the fastest pace in five years over the last three months, there are still fewer jobs than there were when the stock market bottomed, according to Friday’s employment report for April

One major reason for the slow recovery is that the construction industry continues to suffer. The financial crisis was caused in part by easy credit policies that caused overbuilding, and that led a deep and continuing fall in construction spending. The Census Bureau reported this week that spending ticked up in March, but that may have simply reflected an improvement in weather. The February figure had been the lowest for any month since 1999.

Those trends are shown in the accompanying charts, which show the changes for each measure from the time the stock market hit its low point.

The stock market recovery in many ways has been a mirror image of the fall from the market peak reached in the fall of 2007. Nearly every stock went down when the market was sliding, and nearly every stock has gone up during the rebound.

Of the 100 major stocks in the Standard Poor’s 100-stock index, 90 are up by at least a third since the market low. Financial stocks led the way down, and have led the way back up as well, although most are well below where they were when the crisis began.

Floyd Norris comments on finance and the economy on his blog at nytimes.com/norris.

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