November 15, 2024

Kuroda, a Critic of Japan’s Central Bank, Takes On Task of Redirecting It

TOKYO — In the late 1990s, in the thick of the Asian financial crisis, a top Japanese Finance Ministry official turned to his protégé and found him engrossed not in policy documents, but in a chunky volume of the works of Aristotle.

That bookish aide, Haruhiko Kuroda, was confirmed as the next Bank of Japan governor, one of the most thankless jobs in a major economy plagued for decades with economic problems. He will need more than Aristotelian logic to turn years of the central bank’s policies on their head.

The Japanese prime minister, Shinzo Abe, who took office in December, has pointed his finger at the central bank and its seemingly hapless monetary decision-making as the root cause of the country’s economic woes. The bank must take a far tougher stance against deflation, Mr. Abe has demanded, to stem the sluggish profits, spending and investment that have weighed on the Japanese economy since the 1990s.

Mr. Kuroda, 68, is tasked with bringing about a regime change at the bank, something he himself, a critic of the bank, has previously called for. His track record of disparaging the bank for not doing more to fight deflation as well as a career that has spanned the stodgy halls of Japanese bureaucracy and the negotiation tables of global finance convinced Mr. Abe that he was the man for the job, officials say.

“Speed is of the utmost importance,” Mr. Kuroda told a parliamentary hearing on Monday. “I intend to pursue bold monetary easing, both in scale and in quality.”

It will be a tough job, though one that offers a chance to right the Bank of Japan’s blemished history of missteps and blunders.

The Bank of Japan’s woes reach back to the mid-1980s, when it lowered interest rates to prop up an economy reeling from a rapidly strengthening yen. And despite signs that the easy money was helping to fuel a spectacular bubble economy, the bank kept interest rates low, finally tightening policy in 1989. By that time, stock and land prices had more than quadrupled from five years earlier.

The painful memories of the collapse of that bubble and the drawn-out economic pain it has brought the Japanese economy have paralyzed the bank’s decision-making, critics including Mr. Kuroda charge. The bank progressively lowered its policy interest rate through the 1990s, hitting zero in 1999, but was reluctant to try more unconventional policies. The governor at the time, Masaru Hayami, thought the possibility of a return to Japan’s bubble economy was still all too real and argued that deflation was not entirely a bad phenomenon.

By 2001, Japan’s economy was again slumping and the bank finally tried its hand at buying up assets to create new money in the economy, a policy known as quantitative easing. Even then, the bank officials continued to publicly voice doubts over that policy’s effectiveness, even exiting quantitative easing at the first signs of an uptick in the economy in 2006.

As the global economic crisis plunged Japan’s economy into its worst recession in decades, the bank has again been slow to adopt an expansionary monetary policy. Until recently, the bank also refused to set a clear inflation target.

Mr. Kuroda has long been a critic of the bank’s missteps. In his 2005 book, “Success and Failure in Fiscal and Monetary Policy,” he denounces the bank for constantly standing behind the curve in its understanding of the economy and deflation.

“It is dead wrong to assume that once policy interest rates are at zero, nothing much else can be done,” Mr. Kuroda wrote. “Fundamental responsibility for preventing deflation lies in monetary policy,” he added.At parliamentary hearings, Mr. Kuroda has committed to expanding Japan’s monetary base to achieve a goal of 2 percent inflation, a level not seen since the early 1990s. He said he would do “whatever it takes” to beat deflation and restore economic growth. He said in a hearing Tuesday that he would be aggressive in buying long-term government bonds, as well as corporate assets, to pump more funds into the economy.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/15/business/global/kuroda-a-critic-of-japans-central-bank-takes-on-task-of-redirecting-it.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Euro-Style Anxiety Spreads

Regulators, bank executives and others continued to play down the risks on Thursday, emphasizing that this would not be a repeat of the 2008 financial crisis. In Europe, political leaders have vowed to prevent a Lehman-like collapse of a major bank, while American firms are better insulated from potential shocks than they were three years ago.

But on Thursday, shares of some big Wall Street banks sank to levels nearly as low as that in the months after the downfall of Lehman Brothers. Among investors, anxiety has been intensifying over the soundness of European banks despite repeated efforts to contain the sovereign debt crisis. The latest fears flared up after an unspecified lender tapped an emergency borrowing program set up by the European Central Bank to ensure that firms had ample funds in dollars.

On Wednesday the bank, which officials would not identify, borrowed $500 million, considered a relatively modest sum in global finance. But the move was widely viewed as a sign that Europe’s financial problems were deepening, given that it was the first time a European bank had used the dollar pipeline since February.

Investors are also nervous that the world economy may tip back into a recession, putting new pressure on big American banks just as they appear to be finding their footing.

After a few fleeting days of relief, stress levels across the industry are once again rising. Credit-default swaps on major banks, which pay out in the event of a financial collapse, have again widened in the last few days. Borrowing costs are notching slightly higher. Tension on trading floors is palpable — especially for the usually relaxed month of August.

To be sure, fears are nowhere near the levels reached at the depths of the financial crisis. Still, even measures taken to stave off another crisis are feeding the panic.

Here in the United States, news reports of heightened regulatory scrutiny have further eroded confidence and caused investors to dump their bank shares.

In Europe, temporary bans on short-selling of financial stocks, imposed last week by regulators in France and several other European countries, provided only a bit of relief. Traders say the measures have caused them to place some negative bets on bank stocks in countries that did not impose such measures, like the United States and Britain.

“There’s a general climate of apprehension,” said Jean-Pierre Lambert, a senior bank analyst with Keefe, Bruyette Woods in London. “When you have doubts about names, it can turn into a vicious circle.”

On Thursday, Citigroup shares plunged 6.26 percent, to $27.98. Bank of America was down 6 percent, to $7.01. Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs shares sink 4.76 percent and 3.51 percent, respectively. Bank stocks are down about 30 percent since January, and have swung wildly over the last few weeks.

The pounding was even more pronounced in Europe, where talk about the short-term financing challenges of the banks swirled through the stock market. Shares in Dexia, a large Belgian bank, dropped 14 percent. Société Générale fell 12 percent. Two British giants, Royal Bank of Scotland and Barclays, each had sharp declines.

American regulators have stepped up scrutiny of both United States and European lenders over the summer, with officials holding more frequent conference calls with individual firms alongside their counterparts at other central banks, according to people briefed on the phone calls.

William C. Dudley, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, described the inquiries as routine bank supervision. “We’re always scrutinizing European banks, U.S. banks and foreign banks in terms of how they’re doing, capital, liquidity, credit quality — so this is standard operating procedure,” he said in remarks at a New Jersey business conference, according to The Star-Ledger of Newark.

For now, American banks appear to be sound, and are probably in better financial shape than they were on the eve of the 2008 crisis. But the fear is that the troubles brewing among European lenders could ripple across the Atlantic.

European banks have amassed vast holdings of government and corporate bonds from Italy and Spain, two countries whose debts have worried investors. Doubts about the stability of these European institutions, in turn, are generating concerns about American banks, which are among their biggest lenders and trading partners. That is prompting investors on both sides of the Atlantic to unload their shares while also ratcheting up bank borrowing costs.

The short-term credit markets, where European banks turn for billions of dollars in financing, have been under serious strain, although nowhere near the levels of three years ago. Most European banks can borrow dollars only overnight or as long as a week; banks elsewhere can take out loans for as long as several months or more.

“Currently many banks cannot access term-funding markets at reasonable rates,” Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a report on European banks. “If these term-funding stresses continue well into the fall, the risks are rising that a lack of credit availability could dent domestic demand growth further.”

Still, several short-term credit traders and analysts said that suggested little has changed while the talk has been flying. A crucial barometer of bank stress — the rate banks charge each other to swap euro-denominated assets into dollars — is at roughly the same level it was a week ago.

“A lot of this concern around the European banks is overstated,” said Alex Roever, a short-term fixed income analyst at JPMorgan. “We are not looking at another 2009, although investors are obviously being cautious.”

Investors in bank stocks have been pummeled by the bad news. Weak data for the housing and job markets suggests loan growth will not pick up anytime soon. Consumer confidence has plunged to record lows, while big corporations are so nervous that analysts expect many to delay hiring and expansion plans.

On Thursday, Morgan Stanley economists warned that both the United States and Europe were “hovering dangerously close to a recession.”

The prospect of twin recessions is perhaps the biggest worry for analysts who follow large American banks. JPMorgan Chase had about $49 billion of loans and other commitments to customers in France, Italy, Spain and several peripheral countries, according to research from Barclays. Citigroup had about $44 billion, while Bank of America had about 20 billion.

“The banks’ loans and commitments to European customers appear manageable,” said Jason Goldberg, the Barclays analyst who did the analysis. “To the extent issues in Europe lead to a slowdown in global economic growth, the U.S. banks aren’t immune.”

Nelson D. Schwartz and Louise Story contributed reporting.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/19/business/global/fears-grow-in-europe-that-banks-need-cash.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Global Finance Leaders Pledge Bold Action to Calm Markets

The shock of the downgrade Friday of long-term United States government debt and the worsening situation in Europe added new urgency to the efforts to restore confidence and prevent an extension of the stock market slide that began last week.

After conducting an emergency conference call late Sunday, the European Central Bank said it would “actively implement” its bond-buying program to address “dysfunctional market segments,” while welcoming efforts by Spain and Italy to restructure their economies and cut spending. The bank did not identify which bonds it would buy, but its statement is likely to be interpreted as a sign that it will intervene to prevent borrowing costs for the two countries from growing unsustainable.

The move was a concession that Europe’s previous efforts to stanch its debt crisis have fallen short, and underscored the importance of propping up Spain and Italy. Those two countries are central pillars of the euro zone, unlike the countries on the periphery — Portugal, Greece and Ireland — that have already received bailouts, and their collapse would threaten the euro currency and intensify the turbulence in world markets.

Shortly afterward, finance officials from the Group of 7 nations — including Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner and the Federal Reserve chairman, Ben S. Bernanke — held a conference call to discuss the United States downgrade and other challenges. In a statement issued after the nearly two-hour meeting, the group said it was ready to “take all necessary measures to support financial stability and growth.”

Earlier Sunday, the Obama adminstration announced that Mr. Geithner would be staying on as secretary, a move whose timing appeared intended to reassure nervous investors.

As officials huddled to discuss strategy, traders and investors around the world also prepared for the fallout from the downgrade of the United States’ credit rating, as markets in Asia neared their opening Monday. Although many experts said the impact in the bond market would not be as stark as first feared, the ruling by Standard Poor’s on Friday has already unnerved global stock markets.

Shares across the Middle East fell sharply Sunday, with stocks in Israel falling 7 percent, the steepest daily fall in more than a decade. United States stock futures were lower, as well.

Stock markets in the Asia-Pacific region fell Monday, with the Nikkei index in Japan down 1.3 percent at midday, and the price of gold — considered a safe haven at times of uncertainty — jumped to yet another nominal record high, to more than $1,688, underscoring the lingering anxiety. Futures on the Standard Poor’s 500 were 1.8 percent lower, and the price of oil sagged $3 a barrel.

After the G-7 conference call, Yoshihiko Noda, the Japanese finance minister, told reporters that global markets’ trust in both United States Treasuries and the dollar remained “unshaken.”

With signs of slowing growth in the United States and Europe, and government budgets and central bank balance sheets already stretched to the limit, the options for policy makers are dwindling. “None of them have a lot of things to do to alleviate the crisis,” Carl B. Weinberg, chief economist of High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, N.Y., said Sunday. “Fiscal stimulus is not an option right now.”

In addition, it was not clear whether Washington would be able to break out of its partisan stalemate and produce in the next few months the kind of overarching deficit reduction that credit agencies and the markets will most likely demand.

“I just keep asking for the sake of the economy: can’t we wait on the things that we’re going to yell at each other about and start on the things that we agree on,” Austan Goolsbee, chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, said on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”

In an interview with CNBC on Sunday, Mr. Geithner emphasized how critical it was for lawmakers to put aside their differences. “Congress ultimately owns the credit rating of the United States,” he said. “They have the power of the purse of the Constitution. And they’re going to have a chance now to earn back the confidence of the investors around the world.”

The country, he said, “is much stronger than Washington.”

Judy Dempsey contributed reporting from Berlin, and Liz Alderman from Paris.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=d993b2aaacb07c07e105916add4cf5af

DealBook: Australia Says It Is Set to Reject SGX-ASX Merger

The global wave of stock exchange consolidation has hit a rocky shoal in Australia, setting an ominous example for the enormous mergers currently under review in the United States, Canada and Europe.

The Foreign Investment Review Board of Australia told Singapore Exchange on Tuesday that its application to merge with its rival, the Australian Securities Exchange, would probably be opposed.

Singapore Exchange, or SGX, said it had been informed that Treasurer Wayne Swan was ‘‘disposed to reject the proposed merger between ASX and SGX as contrary to Australia’s national interest.’’

SGX said it would ‘‘consider appropriate responses’’ to the board’s statement, while pursuing ‘‘other strategic growth opportunities.’’

Just what those opportunities might be remained unclear, as the $7.9 billion merger of SGX and ASX seemed to be the easiest way for both to play a larger role in global finance.

‘‘ASX was the most open, the most likely,’’ said Kenneth Ng, an analyst at the Malaysian bank CIMB, referring to possible takeover targets for SGX in the region. ‘‘The rest are too nationalistic.’’

‘‘Of course Hong Kong is the biggest, but that deal is unlikely, given the rivalry between the two cities to build Asian financial centers,’’ he said.

The Australia Securities Exchange said it would ‘‘continue to evaluate strategic growth opportunities (including further dialogue with SGX on other forms of combination and co-operation).’’

A spokesperson for the Australian Treasury declined to comment.

The two exchanges had already modified their deal to appease regulators and overcome political resistance in February, pledging to preserve Australian jobs as well as the country’s presence on a combined company’s board.

But their attempt has so far failed to persuade Mr. Swan, the deputy prime minister and treasurer in a Labor government led by Julia Gillard, who took office last year.

That failure is unlikely to go unnoticed in New York, London, Frankfurt and Toronto — four cities currently in the throes of proposed stock exchange deals.

Deutsche Börse bid for the New York Stock Exchange in February, just days after the London Stock Exchange announced it was in merger talks with TMX Group of Canada.

The proposed SGX-ASX merger, announced last October, reflected the ambitions of SGX’s chief executive, Magnus Böcker, to replicate a previous success at building a regional exchange.

Mr. Böcker led the Scandinavian exchange operator OMX through more than half a dozen deals integrating various national exchanges, until it was acquired by Nasdaq and he was tapped as president of the combined company. He came to SGX in 2009.

ASX shares slipped 1.15 Australian dollars, or 3.3 percent, in Sydney, to 33.70 dollars. SGX shares rose 0.39 Singapore dollars, or 4.9 percent, to 8.40 dollars.

Article source: http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/04/05/australia-says-its-set-to-reject-sgx-asx-merger/?partner=rss&emc=rss