November 15, 2024

Euro Zone Economy Shrinks, but Little Sign of Action

Europe, experts say, seems to be in policy paralysis. With Germany, the Continent’s economic heavyweight, in the grip of pre-election politicking, no big European policy moves are likely until after that country’s elections in September. Even then, it is not clear that anyone has any masterstrokes planned.

“The political situation in Europe is not conducive to making bazooka decisions,” said Gilles Moëc, an economist at Deutsche Bank in London, referring to an allusion by Henry M. Paulson Jr., a former U.S. Treasury secretary, to the need to have economic firepower in a crisis. “No one’s talking about creating any further jolts to the system.”

While Germany was able to barely sidestep a recession in the first quarter, France slid into one, according to the data Wednesday from Eurostat, the European Union’s statistical agency. The French president, François Hollande, marked the occasion at a news conference in Brussels by indicating that his country should not be singled out for criticism.

“Are we an isolated case?” Mr. Hollande said of France. “No, because the recession in Europe and particularly in the euro zone is greater.” But he offered no prescriptions for growth other than to say, “If Europe, member states and France organize ourselves to promote growth, then we can return to the hope of a better future.”

Organizing to promote growth, though, seems to be the mission that has long eluded the Union, whose listlessness contrasts with the performance of other major global economies.

Two weeks ago, the European Central Bank cut its benchmark interest rate target to a record low in a largely symbolic move, but gave no hint of whether it had more in store. Economists say there is a limit to what monetary policy can accomplish, in any case.

And the people perhaps most able to propose action — E.U. finance ministers — just spent two days in Brussels arguing over tax havens and debating a banking union, which is aimed at avoiding future disasters, not reviving growth.

“We don’t see policy makers lifting a finger anywhere in Europe,” Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, New York, said Wednesday. “But this is a depression, rather than a cyclical downturn, and there must be a policy response if things are going to get better.”

Little wonder the European public is losing confidence in the region, as the results of a poll by the Pew research organization showed Monday.

The 17-nation euro zone economy contracted 0.2 percent in the first quarter from the last three months of 2012, Eurostat reported Wednesday. That was less than the 0.6 percent decline recorded in the fourth quarter, but more than economists’ expectations of a 0.1 percent fall.

France’s slip into recession was the result of a second consecutive quarterly contraction of 0.2 percent. (At least two consecutive quarters of a shrinking economy is the widely accepted definition of recession.) Germany essentially marked time, with growth of 0.1 percent. The economy of the overall Union, made up of 27 nations, shrank 0.1 percent.

Eurostat said it was the first time the euro zone had contracted for six straight quarters since the creation of the single currency in 1999.

In annualized terms, the euro zone economy contracted about 0.8 percent in the first quarter. That is in stark contrast to the current2.5 percent annual growth rate in the world’s largest economy, the United States. China, with the second-biggest economy, reported in April first-quarter growth of 7.7 percent.

Japan, with the third-largest economy, is expected to post annualized growth of about 2.8 percent when it reports its first-quarter numbers on Thursday.

Europe’s economic doldrums are by no means the region’s problem alone. Despite its troubles, the Union remains the world’s single largest market, which means its weakness is retarding growth in the rest of the world.

Moody’s Investors Service warned in a report Wednesday that the weakness in the euro zone, combined with the mandatory budget cuts in the United States, would weigh on the world economy. Those factors will help limit growth in the Group of 20 industrial nations to just 1.2 percent this year, Moody’s said.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/16/business/global/germany-france-economic-data.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Draghi Tells Troubled Euro Nations They Are on Their Own

And despite ever louder calls for central bank intervention, Mr. Draghi offered no hope he would come to any country’s rescue by pumping money into the financial markets.

Mr. Draghi, who took office at the beginning of the month, implicitly rejected calls for the central bank to use its enormous resources to stop the upward creep of borrowing costs for Spain and Italy, which threatens their solvency and by extension the European and global economies.

Mr. Draghi said the bank would not deviate from its focus on price stability and suggested that other measures could undercut the bank’s credibility.

“Gaining credibility is a long and laborious process,” Mr. Draghi said at a gathering of bankers here in Frankfurt. “But losing credibility can happen quickly — and history shows that regaining it has huge economic and social costs.”

He criticized leaders for taking too long to act on decisions they had made at numerous summit meetings. “Where is the implementation of these longstanding decisions?” he asked. “We should not be waiting any longer.”

If the collapse of the euro seemed imminent, the central bank would become lender of last resort to countries like Italy, many analysts say. But the bank seems to be far from that point and instead is insisting that countries take steps to cut budget deficits and improve their economic performance.

Jens Weidmann, president of the Bundesbank, the German central bank, was more blunt than Mr. Draghi in rejecting use of the European Central Bank to bail out troubled governments, reflecting the hard line that German policy makers have taken.

“The economic costs of any form of monetary financing of public debts and deficits outweigh its benefits so clearly that it will not help to stabilize the current situation in any sustainable way,” Mr. Weidmann said at the same event, the Frankfurt European Banking Congress.

He put the onus on governments to address deficiencies in their national economies. “These deficiencies include a lack of competitiveness, rigid labor markets and the failure to seize opportunities for growth,” he said.

One of the countries he was referring to is Greece, whose finance minister, Evangelos Venizelos, said on Friday that state revenue would exceed spending in 2012 for the first time in years, adding that the deficit was expected to contract to 5.4 percent of gross domestic product, from 9 percent this year — as long as a bond swap with private investors goes ahead as planned.

According to a draft budget for 2012 submitted in Parliament by Mr. Venizelos, revenue is expected to reach 54.4 billion euros in 2012, compared with 51.3 billion euros this year, while spending will be curbed by 5 billion euros. The blueprint projects an additional 3.6 billion euros in tax collection.

Describing the 2012 budget as “a tool for exiting the crisis,” Mr. Venizelos said it would help Greece move from “the current state of pessimism to a new starting point.”

At a news conference he said the budget was “the first major initiative of the new government of Lucas Papademos,” a former vice president of the central bank whose coalition administration won a vote of confidence in the Greek Parliament last week. “This is a budget of consensus and that is significant,” Mr. Venizelos said. “It represents four-fifths of the country’s Parliament,” he said, referring to the 300-seat House.

A vote on the draft budget is scheduled for Dec. 7.

Mr. Venizelos said all projections in Greece’s draft budget for next year were conditional on the adoption of a European Union debt deal, which was negotiated in Brussels last month and earmarked an extra 130 billion euros in loans for Greece. “The responsibility for this is largely ours,” Mr. Venizelos said, adding that austerity measures Greece had voted through Parliament must be enforced. But he indicated that the forecasts also depended on the success of a bond swap that forms part of the debt deal and under which holders of Greek debt have been asked to accept a 50 percent write-down on the value of their bonds.

Mr. Venizelos presented two possible outlooks for the budget deficit — one taking into account a bond swap and the other disregarding it. In the first case, the deficit would be reduced to 5.4 percent of G.D.P., from the 6.8 percent originally foreseen in the budget, while in the second, the deficit would drop to 6.7 percent.

He added that no further austerity measures had been included in the blueprint for next year.

“The budget for 2012 will not be accompanied by legislation foreseeing new tax hikes and other revenue-raising measures,” he said. “As long as we implement measures that have already been voted through Parliament we will not need to take any new ones.”

If all goes as planned, Greece will report a primary budget surplus of 1.1 percent of G.D.P. next year, he said. “It will be a small primary surplus but a surplus nonetheless,” he said.

Mr. Venizelos and Mr. Papademos met visiting members of Greece’s foreign creditors in Athens on Friday afternoon to discuss the release of an 8 billion euro tranche of rescue money, a statement from the prime minister’s office said.

Jack Ewing reported from Frankfurt, and Niki Kitsantonis from Athens.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/19/business/global/bank-chief-rejects-calls-to-rescue-euro-zone.html?partner=rss&emc=rss