December 22, 2024

Merkel Changes Stance on Aid to Greece

Her critics in the European Central Bank and in many European capitals had argued that any requirement that private investors absorb some losses risked plunging Greece into a disorderly default on its enormous debt.

But after a two-hour meeting with President Nicolas Sarkozy of France, whose banks are among the most heavily exposed in the Greek debt crisis, Mrs. Merkel relented, saying, “We would like to have a participation of private creditors on a voluntary basis.” She acknowledged, too, that there was no legal way of forcing banks to participate.

“This should be worked out jointly with the E.C.B,” she added, referring to the European Central Bank. “There shouldn’t be any dispute with the E.C.B. on this.” It was her second major political reversal in a month and could compound her political woes at home.

Mrs. Merkel spoke shortly after the embattled Greek prime minister, George Papandreou, reshuffled his cabinet after days of turbulence on the streets of Athens and within the political elite. In the most prominent change, he named Evangelos Venizelos, the former defense minister, as finance minister in place of George Papaconstantinou, who has been the highly visible face of the austerity drive.

Critics dismissed the change as cosmetic. Yanis Varoufakis, a political economist at the University of Athens, told Skai television that “not even God almighty” as finance minister could redeem the situation. Nevertheless, the combination of the cabinet changes and the agreement between France and Germany on Friday calmed jittery markets.

Behind most calculations about the Greek crisis lies the much broader worry about whether financial woes in Athens will lead to a domino collapse of other weak euro zone economies, such as those of Portugal and Ireland, and create a “credit event” similar to the one that froze global markets after the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy. To stave off an imminent default, Greece needs the next $16.8 billion installment of a $155 billion loan package it received a year ago. But Greece is also likely to need another longer-term bailout — estimated at up to $84 billion — before it can get its budget deficit, currently at 7.5 percent of gross domestic product, into a surplus.

The potential for European chaos is immense. The European Central Bank itself holds billions of euros in shaky Greek debt and has firmly opposed anything that could set off what rating agencies call a “credit event,” or default.

Officials with the European Union and the International Monetary Fund have expressed confidence that an agreement to release the next loan installment could emerge from a meeting of euro zone finance ministers on Sunday in Luxembourg, while the question of the proposed second rescue package could be put off until July. Mrs. Merkel’s retreat was all the more significant because German voters have registered loud concerns that their tax money, levied on a country known for prudence and restraint, is being used to spare Greece from the results of its own mismanagement and profligacy. With the demand for private lenders to be brought into the rescue, Mrs. Merkel had hoped to show German voters that the banks would share their pain.

The German leader also reversed her energy policies this month, moving up the deadline for Germany to close down most of its nuclear power stations to 2022. While she said publicly that her change of mind was a result of the nuclear disaster in Japan, many analysts saw it as a desperate attempt to recover political ground after a series of defeats in local elections.

Mrs. Merkel’s junior coalition partners, the Free Democrats, are also weak, leaving her bereft of powerful allies. “This coalition, as everyone knows, is an alliance for ill, not good,” The Süddeutsche Zeitung of Munich said in an editorial on Friday.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/18/business/global/18euro.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Germany Says Creditors Can Be Shielded in Greek Bailout

The German government’s previous insistence on what the finance minister called “fair burden sharing” had renewed market jitters by threatening to derail negotiations on a second rescue of Greece, which will be needed to avert another financing crisis next year.

The German compromise was one of several fresh moves in the long-running saga over Greece’s finances that could restore confidence among both taxpayers and investors. Prime Minister George Papandreou on Friday named a new finance minister and other cabinet members at the end of a week of political instability and angry street protests.

Chancellor Angela Merkel and the French president, Nicolas Sarkozy, announced their agreement after a two-hour meeting in Berlin.

“We would like to have a participation of private creditors on a voluntary basis,” Mrs. Merkel said at a joint news conference with Mr. Sarkozy.

“This should be worked out jointly with the E.C.B.,” she added. “There shouldn’t be any dispute with the E.C.B. on this.”

“This is a breakthrough,” Mr. Sarkozy said, referring to the softening of the German position.

Wall Street and European stock markets turned positive on the news and the euro strengthened against the dollar, reversing its earlier decline. Premiums on Greek and other bonds declined after a weeklong rout, according to Reuters.

To stave off an imminent default, Greece needs the next installment of the 110 billion euro, or $155 billion, loan package it received a year ago. That amounts to 12 billion euros. Further out, Greece is most likely to need another bailout — estimated at up to 60 billion euros — because it won’t be able to return to markets next year as initially planned.

The European Central Bank — which itself holds billions of euros in shaky Greek debt — has firmly opposed anything that could trigger what rating agencies call a “credit event,” or default. Mario Draghi, who has been nominated to succeed Jean-Claude Trichet as bank president, testified on Tuesday that the bank could accept including bondholders only if it were “entirely voluntary.”

Mrs. Merkel, who has been weakened politically by a series of local election defeats, now faces the potential for a rebellion in her center-right coalition over the concession.

In addition, like-minded countries that have backed Mrs. Merkel and her finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, including the Netherlands, Austria and Finland, could also still protest.

On the other side, countries like France, whose banks are the most exposed to Greece, and the E.C.B., which has been a buyer of last resort for Greek sovereign debt, are afraid of anything that smacks of default. Such a “credit event” could lead to damaging losses for banks and a freezing up of the global credit markets, such as followed the Lehman bankruptcy in 2008.

Officials with the European Union and the International Monetary Fund officials have expressed confidence that an agreement to release the 12 billion euros from the next loan installment could be made at a meeting of euro group finance ministers on Sunday night in Luxembourg, while the question of a second rescue package could be put off until July. But politically, any new rescue package depends on Greece pushing through additional savings to close a widening budget gap — a demand that provoked a government crisis in the country this week.

Another issue that will need to be resolved Sunday is the source of the financing for a second Greek bailout.

Mr. Draghi has indicated that one acceptable option is the so-called Vienna Initiative, named after a 2009 agreement under which international lenders agreed to roll over credit lines and maintain their exposure to Central and East European countries to carry them through the global financial crisis.

On Friday, Mrs. Merkel said the Vienna Initiative was a “good basis” for a solution. Mr. Sarkozy agreed. But neither gave details about how the private investors would work with the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank. They said they were waiting for the troika — the I.M.F., the E.C.B and the European Commission — to present its latest report on Greece’s situation.

Stephen Castle reported from Brussels.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/18/business/global/18euro.html?partner=rss&emc=rss