November 15, 2024

News Analysis: Rating Cut of U.S. Debt Echoes the Nervousness of Global Markets

Governments on both sides of the Atlantic have avoided grappling with fundamental problems, counting on renewed growth to help borrowers who cannot afford to pay and creditors who cannot afford to walk away.

But four years into this age of financial contagion, the global economy cannot seem to pick up steam. Every promising leap seems to end with a sickening thud. The easy answers are exhausted, and political leaders face a rising tide of anger that is constraining their ability to make more difficult choices.

S.P. said Friday that it was losing faith in America’s political leaders. Investors seem to be losing hope. The movements of markets are collective predictions of future prosperity, and the tidings are increasingly grim.

“Europe’s plan was to have growth fix the problem. America’s plan was to have growth fix the problem. And that’s not going to work,” said Kenneth Rogoff, an economics professor at Harvard. “I think it’s really starting to sink in that we’re not anywhere near an endgame.”

The United States and Europe face parallel debt problems. Here, banks and investors are pitted against homeowners. There, banks and investors are pitted against nations. In both cases, governments have struggled to rebalance their books.

There is no surplus of economic strength to throw at the problem. The United States and Europe ran up great debts in the years of plenty, living well and promising to pay later, even as they made expansive promises to aging populations.

“The restorative forces of the economy are very weak and the immediate forces that will be in place are worsening the problem,” said Joseph E. Stiglitz, an economist at Columbia University. “We already know it’s not going to be a V-shaped recovery. I had said in my book that it would be more of an L-shaped, slow recovery. I think the answer now is a Japan-style malaise.”

The weakness of the American economy is most evident in the lack of jobs. Only 55 percent of working-age adults held full-time jobs in July, the lowest level in modern times. About 25 million American adults want but cannot find full-time work, the government said Friday. The unemployment rate fell slightly, but mostly because 193,000 people stopped searching for jobs.

Consumer spending makes up 70 percent of the nation’s economic activity, and people without jobs spend less money. For more than a year the government has reported that the economy was expanding more quickly than employment, fueling hope that hiring would follow.

But last week the government said in a new estimate that it was mistaken, and that the economy actually had expanded at an annual rate of only 0.8 percent during the first half of the year — about the rate of population growth.

Falling home prices also shadow the recovery. Total household wealth remains 12 percent below its prerecession peak, according to the Federal Reserve. Consumer spending has not suffered a comparable decline, suggesting that people still see brighter days ahead. If they are wrong or if they lose faith, economists say, spending could dip even more sharply — and with it, the broader economy.

Corporate profits have climbed to record heights, but companies are not hiring. Long-term prosperity depends on investment in research and equipment and workers. But short-term fears are driving a turn toward austerity, said Gary P. Pisano, a professor at Harvard Business School.

“The dynamic that our government has gotten trapped in, companies are trapped in as well,” he said.

Professor Stiglitz said that falling stock prices could exacerbate the problem.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=5113ad43afb8d353b73915efdfec8029

Round of Layoffs to Start at Research in Motion

As it struggles with the declining popularity of the BlackBerry line of smartphones, Research In Motion said on Monday that it would begin laying off about 2,000 employees, 10.5 percent of its work force, this week.

While the company had previously announced that it planned to cut employees, the number of jobs lost was higher than some analysts expected, perhaps suggesting that the company’s situation was deteriorating more rapidly than earlier thought.

RIM also announced changes to the duties of several executives. While those new arrangements did not appear to be significant, it also said that Don Morrison, the chief operating officer, would retire. Mr. Morrison, who joined RIM in 2000, went on medical leave last month.

The growing popularity of Apple iPhones and phones running Google’s Android operating system in RIM’s crucial North American market have forced the company’s share price down by about half over the last year. Shares in RIM were down over 4 percent, to $26.71, in midafternoon trading on Nasdaq.

While the layoffs, which were announced during a quarterly conference call earlier this year, are a response to the company’s financial situation, they will not resolve RIM’s fundamental problems. RIM’s future outlook now largely rests with a line of BlackBerry phones based around an entirely new operating system known as QNX.

Those phones, however, will not be for sale until an unspecified point next year. In the interim, RIM has introduced phones with an improved version of its decade-old operating system.

The company’s move into the tablet computer market with the BlackBerry PlayBook this spring has also proved disappointing. The device, which uses the new operating system, was introduced without many major features, including e-mail software, a puzzling omission given that BlackBerry phones were the world’s first successful wireless e-mail devices.

RIM has shipped only 500,000 PlayBooks but has not disclosed how many of them have been purchased by consumers and businesses. By comparison, Apple said last week that it sold 9.25 million iPad 2 devices during its last quarter.

In its announcement, RIM said that severance payments and other costs related to the layoffs were not included in its financial outlook for the current quarter. While the company offered no figures on Monday, Mike Abramsky, an analyst with RBC Capital Markets, estimated that the pretax cost would be $200 million to $250 million.

In a note to investors, Mr. Abramsky added that the extent of the cut was “more significant than previously suggested by management.”

RIM said that the layoffs in North America would take place this week. Overseas layoffs will follow later.

While the company did not disclose where the employees who will be made redundant are based, or what roles they perform, the majority of its work force is in Waterloo, Ontario, a city west of Toronto where RIM has its headquarters.

The cuts will give RIM about 17,000 employees, effectively bringing it back to levels of earlier this year. At the end of February, when its fiscal year ended, RIM reported that it had 17,500 employees.

Mr. Abramsky noted that after the cuts RIM would generate revenue of $1.2 million per employee. While that is less than Apple, it is better than Google or Nokia, he said.

RIM’s situation has led several employees to leave the company of their own accord. Brian Wallace, the former vice president of digital marketing and media, recently joined Samsung Mobile. Shortly afterward, he was followed to Samsung by Ryan Bidan, a former Microsoft Games executive who was the senior product manager for the PlayBook.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=4ec81ef546dd7f70bf68b257cd108070

Bucks: Critic of Mortgage Modification Program

The Treasury Department announced penalties on Thursday against three of the nation’s largest banks for what it said was poor performance in the government’s main foreclosure prevention program.

The penalties, against Wells Fargo, Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase, are part of a new scorecard for mortgage servicers in the program, known as the Home Affordable Modification Program, or HAMP. (More details are available in the Treasury Department’s release and scorecard.) A fourth mortgage servicer, Ocwen Financial, was also deemed subpar but not penalized.

The program is intended to provide incentives to mortgage servicers and investors to make it more financially advantageous to modify a troubled mortgage, rather than foreclose on it. But since the program began, it has fallen far short of expectations, in part because mortgage servicers have done a poor job of processing applications from homeowners.

On Friday, Katherine M. Porter, a University of Iowa law professor and frequent critic of HAMP, described the penalties as “an important move by Treasury.” In an e-mail, she said that “the withholding of financial incentives is even more important in terms of sending a message.”

But Professor Porter argued that the fundamental problems with HAMP remain. She complained that the assessments were buried in their report and that the Treasury Department did not disclose much of what went into its analysis. And, she asked, “Why did it take more than two full years to produce this information?”

She continued: “This information does nothing to help consumers — at least not in any direct way. Homeowners cannot choose their mortgage servicing, and lawsuits (outside of bankruptcy) to impose liability on servicers for mistreatment of consumers have largely floundered, in part because the servicers argue they have no contractual duty to the homeowners — only to the trusts or banks that pay them. One feels for the homeowner who has lost their home after months of struggling with BoA, JPMorgan, Wells or Ocwen and failing to get a loan modification, at least in part due to that company’s failings. It is cold comfort to a former homeowner to see their mortgage companies’ name on this list.”

Do you think the Treasury’s action will persuade the banks to act more aggressively in making mortgage modifications? Share your thoughts below.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=9067041e2fe461eb79205cb4a4009e7c