November 22, 2024

When Investors Rush In, and Out, Together

It seems that anxious investors in these troubled economic times are seeking safety in crowds.

The prices of stocks, bonds and a host of other financial assets, which in normal conditions more often than not move in a diversity of unpredictable directions, are increasingly surging up or down in lock step.

The rise in correlation between individual stocks, but also between completely separate asset classes like stocks and gold or stocks and oil, “has been one of the big themes of the investment climate this year,” said Marc Chandler, a market strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman in New York.

The chief explanation for the correlation is the great uncertainty facing investors — mainly over the crisis in Europe, which has raised the specter of the potential bankruptcy of governments and a collapse of the banking system.

With every bit of bad news, nervous investors around the globe have been selling many of their positions across all asset classes, no matter what they are, driving prices down, and rushing into perceived safe havens like cash and United States bonds. But sometimes just a day or so later, with a glimmer of hope that Europe is pulling away from the abyss or that the United States is picking up steam, newly optimistic investors turn around and rush back from cash into harder assets, from stocks and foreign bonds to commodities, pushing prices higher together.

“When things are less stressed, stocks and other investments move according to other more fundamental factors like a company’s earnings or its balance sheet,” said Maneesh Deshpande, managing director of global equity derivatives strategy at Barclays Capital. “But when macro fears take over, they move in flocks.”

The downside for investors caught in this maelstrom is that their attempts to spread risk by diversifying their portfolios is less effective. Analysts’ expectation for 2012 is that volatility and correlation will continue to afflict markets.

In November and December, a common measure of correlation within the Standard Poor’s benchmark 500-stock index reached as high as 90 percent, the highest since 1996, according to Barclays calculations. For much of the decade leading up to the financial crisis in 2008, the measure of correlation between the 50 biggest stocks in the S. P. 500 generally stayed between 10 percent and 40 percent.

Financial stocks were the most correlated in the third quarter, but even other sectors — like consumer and health care — that are usually more differentiated experienced “remarkable pickups in correlations,” Candace Browning, head of research at Bank of America, said in a recent presentation.

“A recession in Europe, the instability in the structure of the E.U. and the euro, uncertainty about the strength of a U.S. recovery and an upcoming presidential election, suggest next year could look very much like this year in terms of finding alpha in a correlated world,” she said.

With so much money sloshing around from one day to the next, the high degree of correlation poses a challenge for active fund managers or other stock pickers who pride themselves on their ability to discriminate between stocks or other assets. It may be one reason why some hedge funds are having such a torrid time.

It is also a problem for ordinary investors who have traditionally tried to protect their portfolios by spreading risk over a broad basket of assets, so that if some go down in price, others will increase. But how can you protect yourself in a world where investments rise or fall together?

Dean Curnutt, chief executive of Macro Risk Advisors, which advises institutional investors on their risk strategies, says correlation threatens “the old adage of don’t put all your eggs in one basket.” According to Mr. Chandler, the heightened correlation means “there is nowhere to hide” for investors.

It has happened before. Correlation went up when markets were volatile during the 2008 financial crisis, and again in May 2010 when the European debt crisis erupted as Greece needed its first bailout and the anxious United States stock market suffered a “flash crash.”

The measures of correlation are closely tied to another closely watched market statistic, the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index. The VIX, as it is known, measures the implied volatility of options on the S. P. 500. When conditions become volatile, it seems, investors rush in and out of assets together, and that’s when correlation rises.

It’s no surprise that correlation has increased again this year as Europe’s unresolved problems have spread to Italy, sending markets reeling.

The realized correlation within United States equities in the S. P. 500 is now higher than in 2008, Mr. Curnutt said.

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Fundamentally: When Markets Move in Sync: Finding the Downbeat

STOCKS have been moving largely in lock step with one another, and with many other assets as well. Especially when prices fall, this can be a source of great frustration.

After all, when markets become more highly correlated, it not only makes diversifying a portfolio seem like a pointless exercise, it also reinforces the feeling that there’s no place to hide.

Yet market strategists say it’s important to understand why stocks and other investments have often been moving in sync, and to appreciate the opportunities that rising correlations create.

Michele Gambera, head of quantitative analysis at UBS Global Asset Management in Chicago, pointed out that the long-term effects of globalization are not the only cause of soaring correlations. “There’s also a short-term, cyclical effect at work,” he said.

As investors have grown more fearful of macroeconomic threats like the European debt crisis and weakness in the global recovery, fundamental factors that typically drive individual security prices have taken a back seat.

Yet this means that even as long-term trends continue to move markets closer together, there will be periods when correlations fall momentarily, giving fundamentally driven investors opportunities to make money.

So far this year, there have been signs of slight divergences in the performance of broad asset classes. For instance, bonds and domestic stocks are up, to varying degrees — the Barclays United States Aggregate Bond index is up nearly 7 percent year to date, the Dow Jones industrial average is up around 5 percent. Meanwhile, the Morgan Stanley Capital International EAFE index of foreign equities is down around 14 percent and the Standard Poor’s GSCI commodities index is largely flat for the year.

And before worries surrounding Italy’s debt crisis bubbled over last week, Doug Ramsey, chief investment officer for the Leuthold Group, said the correlations of 50-day moving averages for stocks in the Standard Poor’s 500 index had fallen slightly from record highs in early October.

Even if these trends turn out to have been short-lived, and Italy’s fiscal problems increase the market’s correlations again, there’s still a silver lining to this market, value-oriented investors say.

“The good news is that whenever the good gets thrown out with the bad in periods of high correlations, mispricing and distortions take place in the market that create wonderful buying opportunities,” said Robert D. Arnott, chairman of the investment management firm Research Affiliates in Newport Beach, Calif.

For example, Mr. Arnott said that as fear over Europe’s debt crisis sent investors fleeing from risky assets in the late summer, investments that had little to do with Europe were hammered.

A potential beneficiary of this, he said, may be investors in non-investment-grade bonds. As a result of the sell-off, the spread in yields between so-called junk bonds and short-term Treasuries has jumped from around five percentage points at the start of the year to nine points.

“A nine-point spread really means that you expect maybe 12 percent of these bonds to go bust every year, and that’s just crazy,” he said. Mr. Arnott noted that the last time spreads widened to this degree, in 2009, high-yield bonds outperformed stocks by almost two to one.

Of course, investors may have to be extremely patient to take advantage of this potential opportunity, as spreads could keep widening for some time before reversing course.

SIMILAR opportunities may be found in equities for long-term-oriented investors.

Edward Chancellor, a member of the asset allocation team for the investment management firm GMO, noted that the firm had exposure to domestic housing-related stocks on the belief that residential real estate might be nearing a trough.

“In the summer, those guys crashed along with everyone else, so we got a chance to buy more of them,” he said. “Likewise, we like Japanese banks and think they’re relatively cheap, but they got cheaper because they went down with European banks.”

In the end, Mr. Chancellor said, valuations are a much stronger indicator of long-term returns than correlations. But in the short run, high correlations can help create some of those values.

Paul J. Lim is a senior editor at Money magazine. E-mail: fund@nytimes.com.

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