November 15, 2024

Oscar Espinosa Chepe, Cuban Economist and Critic of Castro, Dies at 72

The cause was liver disease, a family spokesman said.

Mr. Espinosa Chepe (pronounced CHEH-pay) lost his job as an official of the National Bank of Cuba in 1996 after advocating the limited restoration of capitalist principles like the right to buy and sell one’s home or start a business.

He then became a journalist, writing articles for American and Spanish-language Web sites in which he used statistical data to analyze Cuba’s economic problems. In March 2003 he was one of 75 activists arrested as part of a government crackdown on dissent known as the “Black Spring.”

He was sentenced to 20 years in prison for what the government characterized as “mercenary” propagandizing on behalf of the United States government. Mr. Espinosa Chepe, who denied the accusation, was released in November 2004 because of failing health.

The crackdown brought international attention to a society of disparate dissidents in Cuba that had emerged in the 1990s after the fall of the Soviet Union. They included independent journalists, religious leaders, labor union organizers and academics who called for democratic overhauls and greater individual liberties, and found outlets for their views on Web sites like CubaNet and Nueva Prensa Cubana, both based in Miami, and Encuentro, in Madrid.

Mr. Espinosa Chepe, who joined Castro’s revolutionary government in the early 1960s and was once head of the powerful Office of Agrarian Reform, had frequently clashed with fellow economic planners over policies he considered overly dogmatic.

His internal critique became increasingly adamant after 1991, when the loss of the Soviet Union’s financial support began taking a devastating toll on the country’s economy. But his proposals for change, many of which had already been adopted in former Soviet bloc states, were labeled counterrevolutionary, said Carmelo Mesa-Lago, a professor emeritus of economics and Latin American studies at the University of Pittsburgh and an expert on Cuban economic policies.

Despite opportunities to resettle in the United States or Spain after he was fired, colleagues said, Mr. Espinosa Chepe kept his small book-lined apartment in Havana and began writing about Cuba’s economy. Like the writings of other dissidents, his articles mainly reached Cuban expatriate communities. But his voice was familiar to Cubans who heard his broadcasts for Radio Martí, the United States government radio station that broadcasts from Miami.

“He was the best-known and most independent-minded economist in Cuba,” Professor Mesa-Lago said, and by refusing for years to leave, “he sacrificed his health and ultimately his life for his country.”

Chronically ill from liver disease, Mr. Espinosa Chepe had initially received government permission to visit Spain in 2010 for medical treatment, including a possible liver transplant. But learning at the last minute that the government’s permission stipulated that he never return, he scrapped the plan, Professor Mesa-Lago said.

Mr. Espinosa Chepe finally departed for medical treatment in Madrid six months ago, accompanied by his wife, Miriam Leiva, when the Cuban government, under pressure from international humanitarian groups, reversed itself to permit the couple’s return.

Mr. Espinosa Chepe was born in the central province of Cienfuegos on Nov. 29, 1940, to a father who was a Communist and a mother who was a fervent Roman Catholic, Professor Mesa-Lago said. He graduated with several degrees in economics from the University of Havana and joined the government in 1961, two years after Mr. Castro overthrew the American-backed dictatorship of Fulgencio Batista.

He was Cuba’s economic attaché to Yugoslavia in the 1980s, and later wrote about being influenced by the experiments in market overhauls undertaken in the Soviet Union under Mikhail S. Gorbachev.

As a dissident, Mr. Espinosa Chepe wrote on a variety of topics besides economics, including the rise in alcoholism and suicide and what he called the “information apartheid” emerging in Cuba, based on the access of a privileged few to the Internet (mainly via telephone lines) and its denial to the vast majority of people.

The country’s economic stagnation, he wrote in a 2009 article titled “Crisis Over Crisis,” was having its most devastating impact on civil society. Market changes introduced since 2008 by Fidel Castro’s successor, his brother Raúl, had been inadequate to stem a tide of crime and self-dealing deeply entrenched in Cuban society because of the lack of opportunity.

“These years of prolonged and deep crisis have generated an enormous loss of spiritual values in large segments of the population,” Mr. Espinosa Chepe wrote. “People had few choices other than the black market. Egoism, mendacity, double morality, and all illegal methods of survival have proliferated to incredible levels.”

His wife is his only known survivor.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/26/world/americas/oscar-espinosa-chepe-cuban-economist-and-critic-of-castro-dies-at-72.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Debt Crisis to Cut Growth in Eastern Europe, Report Says

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, which lends to businesses and governments in the former Soviet bloc and is underwritten by Europe and the United States, cut its growth estimate for Central Europe and the Baltics to 1.7 percent for 2012.

In July, the bank predicted an expansion of 3.4 percent for the eight countries in the region, which stretches from Croatia to Estonia.

Southeastern Europe, which includes Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia and four other countries, will grow 1.6 percent next year, the bank said, down from a forecast of 3.7 percent in July. Those countries are suffering from their ties to Greece, the euro zone country with the gravest debt and economic problems.

Even the revised predictions may be optimistic, because they are based on the assumption that Western Europe will slow to a standstill but avoid recession, and that policy makers will manage to contain the debt crisis. In recent weeks many economists have started predicting that Europe is headed for recession. Whether European leaders manage to tame the debt crisis is an open question.

“For next year there is an exceptional uncertainty about the course of developments in the euro zone, and the ramifications for Central Europe,” the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development wrote in its report on prospects for the region, which was released Tuesday.

Eastern Europe has been hit harder by the financial crisis and recession that began in 2008 than any other part of the world, with output plunging more than 5 percent in many countries. The bank’s report highlighted the region’s continued vulnerability to its richer neighbors.

Countries like Hungary and Slovakia depend heavily on the euro zone for trade and capital. In addition, most banks are foreign-owned, and there is a risk that West European institutions could starve their eastern subsidiaries of credit.

In 2009, only an emergency accord among lenders, known as the Vienna Initiative, prevented wholesale capital flight and the collapse of local banks.

While the region is less susceptible to banking woes than during the previous crisis, the bank said, the number of bad loans is still high and many consumers and businesses continue to have loans denominated in euros or Swiss francs. Foreign currency loans can become ruinously expensive for borrowers when local currencies plunge in value, as happened in 2009.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development did not forecast that any of the countries in which it is active would fall into recession, but said that even star performers like Poland would experience markedly slower growth. The bank cut its growth forecast for Poland to 2.2 percent for 2012. In July, the bank had forecast a 3.5 percent expansion for Poland next year.

The development bank, which is underwritten by 61 countries, also predicted a sharp slowdown in Turkey, to 2.5 percent in 2012 from 7.5 percent growth this year. The Turkish economy is suffering from excess borrowing and has become overheated, the bank said.

Growth in Russia will accelerate slightly next year to 4.2 percent, from 4 percent in 2011, the bank said, because of strong commodity prices. But it cautioned that the outlook for Russia was vulnerable to volatile oil prices.

If euro zone leaders tame the sovereign debt crisis, the development bank said its predictions could prove overly pessimistic. But it also warned that a failure to control the crisis could have dire effects on Eastern Europe. “The potential for worsening of the current situation in the euro zone beyond the baseline scenario poses significant risks even to the lowered outlook,” the bank said.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/18/business/global/euro-crisis-weighing-on-east-european-growth.html?partner=rss&emc=rss