December 21, 2024

DealBook: China Hints at Far Wider Welcome to Overseas Investors

HONG KONG — In what would be a drastic liberalization of China’s huge but still cloistered capital markets, the country’s top securities regulator said Monday that foreign investment could be allowed to rise as much as tenfold.

Citing the still-nascent levels of overseas participation in domestic stock markets — despite recent actions more than doubling the amount of money that foreign funds can invest there — Guo Shuqing, the regulator, hinted that 2013 could bring sweeping new measures to open financial markets in China, which has the world’s second-biggest economy, after that of the United States.

‘‘For our capital markets to mature, they must open more in the future,’’ Mr. Guo, the chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, said Monday at a financial forum in Hong Kong. ‘‘Our goal is to make it easier for nonresidents to issue and trade securities in the domestic markets.’’

Shares in Shanghai leaped 3.1 percent Monday after Mr. Guo’s comments, as investors speculated that a wave of foreign cash could be set to hit the mainland stock markets. That added to a monthlong rally in which the benchmark Shanghai share index has rebounded 18 percent from early December, when it hit its lowest levels in more than three years.

With a total capitalization of about 20 trillion renminbi, or $3.2 trillion, China’s domestic stock market ranks as one of the biggest in the world, but it is also one of the most restricted among major economies.

Mr. Guo has been pushing hard to remove some of these investment barriers. In his comments Monday, Mr. Guo said that foreign investors hold only about 1.5 percent of the domestic share market by value. ‘‘I think at least we can increase that 10 times,’’ he said.

Some observers expressed deep skepticism at the remarks. ‘‘This is great headline stuff, but I don’t think it is particularly constructive, because you are not going to simply take the lid off and increase everything by 10 times,’’ said Fraser Howie, the co-author of ‘‘Red Capitalism: The Fragile Financial Foundation of China’s Extraordinary Rise.’’

‘‘I would like to see proper, sensible moves to break down some of the barriers to entry and the actual movement of money,’’ Mr. Howie said.

A former chief foreign exchange regulator and former chairman of China Construction Bank who took the helm at the securities regulator in October 2011, Mr. Guo spearheaded a move last April that more than doubled the amount of Chinese shares that foreign investors could own, increasing the quota for so-called qualified foreign institutional investors to $80 billion from $30 billion.

However, by the end of December, only $37.4 billion of that quota had been actually allocated to investors, spread among 169 banks, brokerage firms and other financial institutions, according to a statement released Friday by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange.

Mr. Guo did not give specific details Monday of how China might raise foreign investment by such a large factor. But he hinted at one potential new program that is under discussion: letting in ordinary retail investors, most likely those from Hong Kong.

At present, China’s markets are open only to funds managed by brokerage firms, banks and other institutions. But Mr. Guo said he had been in talks during the weekend with several unidentified financial industry groups in Hong Kong about introducing a quota for so-called qualified foreign individual investors.

Details were sparse. But analysts said the general tone of the remarks was consistent with similar indications made recently by the central bank that support was growing for financial changes.

‘‘Clearly this demonstrates the resolve to accelerate financial sector reform, and part of the puzzle is to further liberalize the capital account,’’ said Steven Sun, the head of China equity strategy at HSBC in Hong Kong.

Article source: http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/01/14/china-hints-at-far-wider-welcome-to-overseas-investors/?partner=rss&emc=rss

Indonesia’s Success Mixes Opportunity With Growth Pains

The glut of idling new cars tells one part of the story: strong growth. The Indonesian economy, the largest in Southeast Asia, grew 6.1 percent last year, and domestic consumption is increasing.

Indonesians bought 286,000 cars in the first four months of this year, according to the Indonesian Automotive Association — 16 percent more than in the period last year — and it can sometimes feel as if they have all congregated in one place.

But the country’s infrastructure has not caught up. A dedicated bus lane relieves some of the pressure from commuters, but heavy rain frequently floods the road. Along the middle of the street, abandoned concrete pylons stand as memorials to a plan to build an urban monorail system, begun in 2004 but left to languish after money troubles and legal disputes among partners.

For businessmen like Stefanus Sulimro Lim, who runs a midsize freight forwarding company, Global Abadi Perkasa, it is a worsening headache. Clogged ports, potholed roads and persistent gridlock mean extra costs in the form of blown truck tires, broken shafts and wasted time.

“About 10 years ago, one truck could go to two places,” Mr. Lim said of work in Jakarta. “Our truck could go to one customer, do their stuff in two or three hours, then we could truck back to the port and do another job, all in the one day.”

These days, he said, trucks must be sent to the port of Jakarta the night before just to get one job done.

Mr. Lim’s frustration contrasts with the enthusiasm of international investors for Indonesia.

Considered only a few years ago as a laggard in the region, Indonesia is fast becoming a darling of financial markets. Foreign investment in the country rose 52 percent in 2010, to $16.2 billion, from the previous year. The credit rating agency Standard Poor’s raised its sovereign debt rating for Indonesia to BB+ last month, becoming the last of the three big agencies to rate the country one peg below investment grade.

The improving grades from the ratings agencies are considered a reflection of sober fiscal management under President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, who has overseen falling public debt ratios and growing foreign exchange reserves. The country is widely expected to reach investment grade next year, drawing it closer to emerging market heavyweights like China and India.

But as the attention on Indonesia grows, so does the focus on flaws that, according to analysts, may restrict future growth.

The country, with a population of 240 million, suffers from corruption, its bureaucracy is inefficient, and — most important, economists say — its infrastructure is strained to the limit.

The Indonesian central bank predicts the economy will expand as much as 6.5 percent this year, based on strong domestic consumer demand and booming commodity exports.

But Muhammad Chatib Basri, an economist at the University of Indonesia, said that this was not enough. For Indonesia really to develop, it needs to attract investment in labor-intensive industries, he said, rather than focusing on exporting commodities, like palm oil and coal, which creates relatively few jobs.

“For the short term, it should be O.K.,” Mr. Basri said. “But you cannot rely, for the country, on what’s been happening on the external side. Because one day the commodity price or energy price may collapse, and it’s going to affect us. In my view, the most binding constraint is infrastructure. Because without improvements in infrastructure, I don’t think economic growth of more than 5 percent will be sustainable.”

Across the country, the underpinnings of power and transport networks are fraying. Ports and airports are largely antiquated and inefficient, while frequent electricity shortages cause disruption to homes and businesses.

Gridlock in Jakarta is estimated by the government to cost the economy $1.5 billion a year, through wasted fuel, lost working hours and illness. Plans to improve infrastructure, like a project to complete a series of toll roads across the island of Java by 2014, routinely run into barriers, largely because of the frustrating difficulty of acquiring land.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/27/business/global/27rupiah.html?partner=rss&emc=rss