December 22, 2024

Off the Shelf: ‘Alchemists’ Looks at Central Bankers’ Handling of Crisis

Europe still lurches from one numbing financial debacle to another, with no resolution in sight. For better or (as many say) worse, the European Central Bank has tried to rescue governments from looming defaults on debt, imposing pain and sacrifice on Ireland, Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy and, most recently, Cyprus. Though critics say the European bank is using monetary policy to force fundamental changes better left to elected politicians, others say that at least it has the backbone to act.

Mr. Irwin, a Washington Post columnist who covered the Fed in the financial crisis, has provided an accessible, engrossing account of the tribulations that Mr. Bernanke, with Mervyn A. King of the Bank of England and Jean-Claude Trichet of the European Central Bank, endured in pulling the world financial system back from collapse. Mr. Irwin’s new book, “The Alchemists: Three Central Bankers and a World on Fire” (Penguin Press, $29.95), describes a learned order of government bankers and economists who meet often, sharing “a closeness unheard-of elsewhere in international relations.”

“They speak the same language,” he says, observing that central bankers “understand more deeply than perhaps anyone else where other countries are coming from.” Why do we care? “Mankind has given them incredible power.”

Many revelations of “what really happened” behind the scenes in politics tend to rely on one or two good sources who blab. Not true of this one. Mr. Irwin seems to have talked with everyone, read the right scholarly papers and interviewed important dissenters in the Fed, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Bundesbank. Much of his sourcing was on “deep background,” but he has produced a well-rounded account.

He has a nice touch for translating central banking’s mysteries, opaque and forbidding, into understandable English. He is astute in describing the internal and external politics of institutions traditionally expected to remain above politics of the usual sort. He may tell you more than you want to know about the subtleties of picking a new president for the European Central Bank. But he shows how in its hour of need, the Fed, supposedly a political naif, was more than a match for its Congressional foes in the financial crisis.

In 2009, after the wildly unpopular bailout of big banks, political rage toward the Fed was bipartisan and extreme. Christopher J. Dodd, the Democratic chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, planned to build a landmark regulatory reform bill around stripping the Fed of its power to regulate banks. The libertarian Representative Ron Paul, a Republican, was pushing a proposal for Congress to audit the institution, a mandate that sailed through the House. Mr. Bernanke’s first term as chairman was running out.

Senator Dodd saw his proposal melt like ice in the noonday sun. Timothy F. Geithner, the Treasury secretary, insisted that the very largest banks remain under the Fed’s watch. Smaller banks lobbied to keep the Fed’s 12 regional reserve banks as their regulator, making a populist case that the arrangement was a counterweight to dominance by Washington and New York.

One Dodd proposal would have required presidential appointees, rather than each bank’s board of directors, to select the 12 reserve bank presidents, including the powerful New York Fed president, but that idea went nowhere. The Paul demand was watered down to tolerable. And Mr. Bernanke, easy to denounce but too capable to be spared, comfortably won reappointment.

Though the book’s accounts of the euro zone’s crises are at least as intricate, savvy and detailed, the Fed inevitably takes center stage. Mr. Irwin is by no means a starry-eyed acolyte, yet there is little doubt his sympathies lie with Mr. Bernanke. He admires the chairman’s efforts to devise novel ways to pump money into a faltering economy. “The Fed created so many emergency lending facilities,” Mr. Irwin says, “that a document just listing and summarizing them required a legal-size piece of paper covered in small type.”

Mr. Bernanke’s Fed did what he decided it had to do, and never looked back. “For nearly a century, the Fed had been lender of last resort to American banks,” Mr. Irwin writes. “In the space of three months, it expanded that role to encompass both banks headquartered across Europe and the masters of the investment universe on Wall Street.”

The author has written a squarely centrist account, echoing conventional wisdom that might place Mr. Bernanke second only to the sainted Paul A. Volcker in the pantheon of Fed chairmen. The book mentions but never really explores concerns by more conservative bankers that the central banks have fatally jeopardized their independence by plunging into political thickets beyond their brief.

Nor does the book give more than passing attention to criticism from the left, voiced most insistently by Paul Krugman, who in New York Times columns loudly deplored “Europe’s Austerity Madness.” Though Mr. Bernanke vowed that the Fed would never repeat its dreadful mistakes of willful inaction during the Depression, Mr. Krugman accused him last year of doing just that, being intimidated into an “abdication” by irate Republicans.

Yet there are limits to the central bankers’ accomplishments and an apt double meaning to Mr. Irwin’s title, “The Alchemists.” Wizardry, yes, but the true alchemists never succeeded in transforming ordinary metals into gold. For all the bankers’ learned theories and late-night deliberations, American economic growth remains sluggish and Europe still suffers from rising unemployment and stagflation.

So, Mr. Irwin writes, their triumph is what didn’t happen: “As ugly as the global economy looked five years after the onset of crisis, no war had broken out among the great global powers. Europe remained united. There had been no confidence-shattering hyperinflation or, outside of perhaps Greece and Spain, economic depression. None of this was a certainty.” As he puts it: “It may seem like damning with faint praise, but a catastrophe averted is no small thing.”

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/05/business/alchemists-looks-at-central-bankers-handling-of-crisis.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

I.M.F. to Contribute 1 Billion Euros to Cyprus Bailout

“This is a challenging program that will require great efforts from the Cypriot population,” Christine Lagarde, the managing director of the I.M.F., said in a statement.

The goal was to “stand by Cyprus and the Cypriot people in helping to restore financial stability, fiscal sustainability and growth to the country and its people,” Ms. Lagarde said in a second statement she issued jointly with Olli Rehn, the European Union commissioner for economic and monetary affairs.

The statements follow agreement on Tuesday between Cyprus and the so-called troika of international organizations — the European Central Bank, the European Commission and the I.M.F. — that painstakingly negotiated the €10 billion, or $13 billion, bailout and the terms of the deal.

“This is an important development which brings a long period of uncertainty to an end,” Christos Stylianides, a spokesman for the Cypriot government, said Tuesday in a statement made available on Wednesday.

“Undoubtedly, the completion of the agreement with troika should have taken place a lot sooner, under more favorable political and financial circumstances,” said Mr. Stylianides, who was apparently referring to infighting in Cyprus about responsibility for the financial debacle.

The memorandum of understanding between Cyprus and the troika outlines budget cuts, privatizations and other conditions Cyprus must meet to receive its allotments of bailout money. A parliamentary vote in Cyprus is needed to approve the deal, while Germany and Finland are also expected to seek the approval of their Parliaments.

Olivier Bailly, a spokesman for the European Commission, said Wednesday that the memorandum would not be made public while euro-area governments reviewed the document. But Cypriot authorities on Tuesday described elements of the agreement that they regarded as favorable.

Mr. Stylianides, the Cypriot spokesman, said the deal safeguarded important parts of the economy by keeping deposits of natural gas in offshore waters under Cypriot jurisdiction, and by winning two more years until 2018 to hit deficit targets and carry out privatizations.

Mr. Stylianides also said the government saved the jobs of contract teachers and of 500 civil servants, and had overcome demands by the troika to tax dividends.

Even so, the memorandum could be hotly contested in by the Cypriot Parliament, where many lawmakers have criticized crisis measures that already have been taken, like capital controls, which threaten to make a bleak economic outlook even worse.

In a move partly aimed at easing those tensions and smoothing parliamentary approval of the memorandum in Cyprus, the government in Nicosia on Tuesday appointed a new finance minister, Harris Georgiades, to replace Michalis Sarris, who resigned. Mr. Sarris has been blamed at home and abroad for his handling of the crisis. Mr. Georgiades was the deputy finance minister.

Over the course of the negotiations to reach a deal for Cyprus, the spotlight fell on whether the I.M.F. was too forceful in pressing countries like Cyprus to limit debt and force losses on investors. The approach of the I.M.F. strained relations with the European Commission, which had harbored concerns about the potentially confidence-sapping effects of such aggressive measures on other economies within the euro area.

The I.M.F. proportion of the package Cyprus is smaller than in some previous arrangements for countries like Greece, but that was not a sign of a change in the I.M.F.’s policy in the euro area, said Mr. Bailly, the commission spokesman. The sums given by the I.M.F. depend on “specific situation” in each country, he said, adding that the €1 billion, three-year loan for Cyprus “was unanimously agreed in the troika.”

Ms. Lagarde said substantial spending cuts would be needed “to put debt on a firmly downward path” including in areas like social welfare programs.

But she said the plan, which the I.M.F. could agree to early next month, sought fairness.

“The fiscal and financial policies of the program seek to distribute the burden of the adjustment fairly among the various segments of the population and to protect the most vulnerable groups,” she said.

More than 95 percent of account holders at Laiki Bank, which will be closed under the plan, and at the Bank of Cyprus, which is being restructured, were fully protected, she said. Bank of Cyprus and Laiki Bank are the two biggest banks in the island nation.

Key fiscal measures included raising the country’s corporate income tax rate to 12.5 percent from 10 percent, she said.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/04/business/global/imf-to-contribute-1-billion-euros-to-cyprus-bailout.html?partner=rss&emc=rss