April 27, 2024

Europeans Caution Ratings Agencies After the Downgrade of Portugal’s Debt

The downgrade included a warning that Portugal, like Greece, might need a second bailout, pushing European stock markets lower on Wednesday and adding to the woes of Ireland, Spain and Italy as traders dumped their bonds, forcing their interest rates up.

Portuguese and European officials condemned the ratings agencies for intensifying the euro crisis, suggesting they were overreacting after they were admonished for moving too slowly to warn of problems in the United States. The move by Moody’s added “another speculative element to the situation,” said José Manuel Barroso, the president of the European Commission.

With both Standard Poor’s and Moody’s making it more difficult for policy makers handling the bailouts of Greece, Portugal and Ireland, the European commissioner for financial regulation said the credit-rating agencies needed to tread carefully.

“I invite the agencies, which are under the control of national supervisors, to be extremely careful to fully respect E.U. rules,” Michel Barnier, the financial regulator, said in a statement from Brussels. “They should learn the lessons from the past.”

The urgency grew as Europe’s biggest banks met with central bankers on Wednesday to figure out ways to put together a second bailout package for Greece that would include contributions from private creditors, despite opposition from the European Central Bank and the rating agency warnings that the proposals discussed so far would be tantamount to a Greek default.

Portugal’s junk rating means that Europe’s banks may face wider losses if their efforts to help Greece falter. The banks, which met under the auspices of the Institute of International Finance, a lobbying group of the 400 biggest banks and insurance firms in the world, were trying to reshape a proposal to give Athens more time to repay loans as they come due without it being termed a default.

“We need to find a solution that avoids a default,” Michel Pébereau, the chairman of BNP Paribas, the biggest French bank and one of Europe’s biggest holders of troubled Greek debt, said on French radio.

But both banking executives and policy makers seemed to be open to a solution that might involve a brief default and selective write-downs of Greek debt.

Charles H. Dallara, managing director of the Institute of International Finance, said that the move by the rating agencies “helps us see that it may not be practical to devise solutions that avoid all the ratings agencies from judging this a selective default.” The issue, he added, “may be more whether any selective default is temporary and surrounded by an environment that can lead to an upgrade of Greece’s creditworthiness.”

Germany revived a proposal, opposed by the European Central Bank, to persuade lenders to voluntarily exchange their Greek debt for securities that could be paid back much later. German leaders, who do not want ratings agencies to tell them what to do, seemed to be willing to risk a short-lived, technical default to ensure that banks and other financial institutions contributed to the bailout.

But one worry is that any form of default could disqualify Greek debt from the collateral that the central bank requires to continue extending loans. Some bankers have warned that such an event could touch off a panic that would rival the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008.

The central bank declined to comment on Wednesday, a day ahead of its planned council meeting, where it is widely expected to bump interest rates up slightly.

But the bigger menace may actually lie hidden, in the form of other financial institutions outside the banking system, including insurance firms and pension funds that are suspected of holding substantial amounts of bonds from troubled European countries.

“If you work backwards and look at Greek public debt and try to understand who owns what, you have a hole of 140 billion euros held by asset managers, pension funds and the like, but there is very little information on the details of those holdings,” said Gilles Moëc, an economist at Deutsche Bank in London. “It’s a much bigger pot than what is actually held by banks, but we don’t know who owns how much, or in which country,” he said.

Many banks have already sold their bonds to hedge funds or the E.C.B., which began buying Greek debt more than a year ago.

According to the most optimistic assessments, banks would contribute about 30 billion euros in debt relief to Greece by agreeing to swap maturing bonds for new ones with longer maturities. That sum would be less than 10 percent of Greece’s outstanding debt.

Officials have not provided any detail on where the 30 billion euros would come from, though. German commercial institutions, which along with French banks are the most exposed to Greek debt, have only about 2 billion euros in Greek bonds that would be part of a rollover plan, according to the German finance ministry.

For German banks, “private sector involvement is very small,” said Jens Bastian, an economist at the Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy in Athens. “The demand for banks to share the burden is coming too late.”

Also unclear is whether billions of euros in insurance contracts against the possibility of a Greek default are concentrated in the hands of a few companies, and if these companies will be able to pay out what they would owe.

But while a Greek default alone would probably be manageable, the biggest fear has been that lenders would abandon other highly indebted countries — justly or unjustly — further distressing the finances of an even larger swath of the 17-nation euro zone. Those concerns mounted Wednesday as analysts said the Portuguese downgrade could ricochet back to Ireland, which received a bailout last winter and may also wind up being downgraded to junk.

Meanwhile, analysts and traders are starting to ask whether Italy, which has the next highest debt ratio of any euro zone country after Greece, might get caught up in the whirlwind. S. P. warned this month that the economy — the third largest in the euro zone after Germany and France — is not growing fast enough to cover its debts.

Liz Alderman reported from Paris and Jack Ewing from Frankfurt. Stephen Castle contributed reporting from Brussels.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=2ee8da0397809b038d8e9d209233e4a1

Government Sees Deep Recession Ahead for Portugal

But even as the terms were being outlined, the challenge facing the country deepened, with the caretaker government forecasting two years of deep recession ahead.

At a news conference in Lisbon, Jürgen Kröger, the chief negotiator for the European Commission, called the €78 billion, or $116 billion, package “tough but fair.”

“We are convinced that the program provides the basis for a more sustainable and competitive economy and is the right means to boost growth and jobs,” he said.

Crucial details remain to be decided, however, chief among them the interest rate Lisbon will be charged by its European Union partners for the bulk of the money, Mr. Kröger said. E.U. finance ministers are to take up the question in Brussels on May 16.

The tentative agreement, which follows three weeks of negotiations in Lisbon between the caretaker government of Prime Minister José Sócrates and officials from the E.U. and the International Monetary Fund, has so far not removed market worries about Portugal’s financial prospects, or those of other ailing euro-area economies.

On Thursday, Spain was forced to offer higher rates to sell €3.4 billion of five-year bonds, a day after Portugal’s financing costs also rose in selling €1.1 billion of short-term debt. The average yield in Spain’s bond sale rose to 4.55 percent, up from the 4.39 percent when Spain last sold such bonds on March 3. The bond sale had a bid-to-cover ratio of 1.9, compared with 2.2 at the last auction.

Interest costs have also recently soared for Greece and Ireland as many investors expect the tough austerity measures included in their rescue packages will actually deepen the countries’ economic slumps and make it even harder for them to balance their budgets and repay their debts.

Underlining Portugal’s difficulties, Fernando Teixeira dos Santos, the Portuguese finance minister, forecast on Thursday that the economy would contract by 2 percent both this year and next — about twice what the government had predicted in March, and even worse than last month’s I.M.F. forecast.

In fact, some analysts are already warning that the bailout could worsen Portugal’s longer term situation.

“Lending money to Portugal that it cannot borrow from the markets at an affordable rate is not doing it any favors,” said in a research note Carl B. Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, New York. “The loan package will only increase Portugal’s indebtedness. It will lead to an even bigger default when Portugal has to repay this new lending on top of its prior obligations.”

However, Poul Thomsen, head of the I.M.F. negotiating team, insisted that creditors had been careful to strike a balance between demanding more budgetary tightening and risking stifling further the economy, notably by hurting consumer demand.

Two-thirds of the rescue money will be disbursed in the first of the three years of the program, he said at the news conference in Lisbon. That should take Portugal “out of the markets” for medium- and long-term debt “for a little over two years,” he said, giving Portugal “breathing space” to restore credibility among investors in terms of implementing policies, after failing to meet its deficit target in 2010.

Of the €78 billion total package, two-thirds will come from the E.U. and the rest from the I.M.F.

The creditors argued that it was not possible to compare directly the terms agreed by Portugal with the conditions imposed on Greece and Ireland last year. Still, they played down a claim made by Mr Sócrates on Tuesday that his government had negotiated better terms.

“The program is by no means lighter but is much different,” said Mr Kröger. “In fiscal terms it is not really lighter and in terms of structural it is much deeper.”

For its I.M.F. lending, Portugal will pay an interest rate of 3.25 percent for the first three years, after which it will rise to 4.25 percent, Mr. Thomsen said.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/06/business/global/06portugal.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

European Union Seeks to Remove Market Obstacles

BRUSSELS — Seeking to spur growth in the single market introduced nearly two decades ago, the European Commission on Wednesday proposed a dozen measures to dismantle barriers still obstructing the free flow of people, goods and services in the European Union.

In announcing the proposals, all of which need approval from national governments, José Manuel Barroso, the commission president, called on countries to reject the lure of economic nationalism and help open up their markets.

“The single market is not just another policy area,” Mr. Barroso said. “It is what makes Europe real for citizens and businesses.”

The proposals include plans to allow professional qualifications in one country to be recognized in another, as well as efforts to encourage consumers to shop online from Web sites in other European countries.

The list of proposed measures was a vivid reminder of the problems of doing business across borders in the 27-nation European Union, which has almost 500 million consumers.

Mr. Barroso acknowledged that several of the ideas proposed had been “around for quite some time,” but had yet to be acted upon.

That underlines the likely political difficulties in winning agreement from national governments on the proposals, which also include coordinating corporate tax rules, standardizing public procurement procedures and establishing a unitary patent across the European Union.

Mr. Barroso acknowledged that “times of economic crisis provide sometimes a strong temptation to roll back the single market. And we have seen that coming from some member states recently.”

“In these times, many like to question competition rules, exploit the missing links and seek refuge in economic nationalism,” Mr. Barroso said. “That is exactly the wrong approach.”

Europe’s single market was put in place on Jan. 1, 1993. The proposals announced Wednesday would require new legislation or revision of old laws, and the goal is to complete them by Jan. 1, 2013.

“We don’t want the anniversary to be a moment of nostalgia,” said Michel Barnier, the European commissioner for the internal market. “We want to be dynamic and proactive.”

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=cdf4988a3b5efe549339ac008892a10c