December 22, 2024

As Budget Cuts Loom, Austerity Kills Off Government Jobs

And the turn toward austerity is set to accelerate on Friday if the mandatory federal spending cuts known as sequestration start to take effect as scheduled. Those cuts would join an earlier round of deficit reduction measures passed in 2011 and the wind-down of wars in Iraq and Afghanistan that already have reduced the federal government’s contribution to the nation’s gross domestic product by almost 7 percent in the last two years.

The cuts may be felt more deeply because state and local governments — which expanded rapidly during earlier rounds of federal reductions in the 1970s and the 1990s, offsetting much of the impact — have also been cutting back.

Federal, state and local governments now employ 500,000 fewer workers than they did on the eve of the recession in 2007, the longest and deepest decline in total government employment since the aftermath of World War II.

Total government spending continues to increase, but those broader figures include benefit programs like Social Security. Government purchases and investments expand the nation’s economy, just as private sector transactions do, while benefit programs move money from one group of people to another without directly expanding economic activity.

The Federal Reserve and other economic forecasters say that the latest round of government austerity is not likely to return the economy to recession, thanks to stronger private sector growth. But the spending cutbacks and actions to raise taxes could reduce growth by roughly 1.5 percentage points this year, according to the Congressional Budget Office, leaving the sluggish economy operating well below capacity.

In testimony to lawmakers on Tuesday, the Fed chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, urged Congress and the Obama administration to replace the scheduled budget cuts with a plan to reduce federal deficits more gradually.

“Although monetary policy is working to promote a more robust recovery, it cannot carry the entire burden of ensuring a speedier return to economic health,” Mr. Bernanke said. He warned that the combination of previous spending cuts and the looming mandatory reductions “could create a significant headwind for the economic recovery.”

The shrinking government is a normal response to an extraordinary situation. Government spending generally rises during recessions and falls as the economy recovers. Spending always declines at the end of one war, let alone two. And three years after a recession, the American economy typically is restored to full bloom.

But this time is different. Growth has remained sluggish and millions remain unemployed even as the federal government, riven by partisan differences, has largely turned its attention to deficit reduction.

Mr. Bernanke, like many critics of sequestration, said the government could not ignore the need to reduce its annual deficits and curtail the growth of its debt. But he said short-term cuts would worsen those problems by slowing the economy. Moreover, sequestration mostly spares Medicare and Medicaid, the health care programs that are the primary reason federal spending is projected to increase.

Congress and the administration, he said, should “introduce these cuts more gradually and compensate with larger and more sustained cuts in the future.”

Others, however, say that it makes no sense to postpone inevitable cuts. They note that government cutbacks may cause short-term pain, but also tend to provide long-term benefits by making resources available to the private sector.

“People focus on the upfront cost and they don’t think through the whole timeline,” said Tyler Cowen, an economist at George Mason University and an occasional contributor to the Sunday Business section of The New York Times. “You have to cut spending within the next 10 years anyway. It may be time to take some lumps.”

The current round of austerity does not yet approach the depth or the duration of the earlier round of cutbacks. Between 1969 and 1974, as spending on the Vietnam War declined, the government reduced consumption and investment by 24 percent after adjusting for inflation. Between 1991 and 1999, the government reduced consumption and investment by an inflation-adjusted 14 percent.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/27/business/as-budget-cuts-loom-austerity-kills-off-government-jobs.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Economix Blog: Laura D’Andrea Tyson: The Infrastructure Two-Fer: Jobs Now and Future Growth

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Laura D’Andrea Tyson is a professor at the Haas School of Business at the University of California, Berkeley, and served as chairwoman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Clinton.

Two credible reports issued last week present compelling and complementary cases for infrastructure investment and should be required reading by members of Congress before their next vote on President Obama’s American Jobs Act.

Today’s Economist

Perspectives from expert contributors.

One report was from President Obama’s Council on Jobs and Competitiveness (on which I serve), a nonpartisan group of business and labor leaders, and the other from the New America Foundation, an influential Washington think tank. According to nonpartisan economic forecasters, the jobs act, which proposes about $90 billion in infrastructure spending as part of a $450 billion package of tax cuts and spending, would create about two million jobs.

Echoing the views of many economists, the foundation report asserts: “Long-term investment in public infrastructure is the best way to simultaneously create jobs, crowd in private investment, make the economy more productive and generate a multiplier of growth in other sectors of the economy.” In less technical language, the council’s report makes the same point, arguing that infrastructure investment is a “twofer” that creates jobs in the near term and promotes competitiveness and productivity in the long term.

Both reports provide sobering evidence of the growing deficiencies of infrastructure in the United States, which millions of Americans experience every day in traffic and airport delays, crumbling and structurally unsafe schools and unreliable train and public transit systems.

These deficiencies impose significant costs on the economy. For example, the Department of Transportation estimates that freight bottlenecks cost the American economy about $200 billion a year, the equivalent of more than 1 percent of gross domestic product; the Federal Aviation Administration estimates that air traffic delays cost the economy nearly $33 billion a year.

Both reports cite a study by the American Society of Civil Engineers that documents a five-year gap of more than $1.1 trillion between the amount needed for maintenance and improvements of the nation’s public infrastructure and the amount of public funds available for such investment.

The American Society of Civil Engineers has estimated the gap between needs and cost across all forms of infrastructure.President’s Council on Jobs and Competitive, using data from American Society of Civil EngineersThe American Society of Civil Engineers has estimated the gap between needs and cost across all forms of infrastructure.

Several recent bipartisan reports, including one by the former transportation secretaries Norman Mineta and Samuel Skinner, find that the annual spending gap in transportation infrastructure alone is $200 billion.

Based on such estimates, the New America Foundation report calls for a five-year public investment program of $1.2 trillion, encompassing transportation, energy, communications and water infrastructure as well as science and technology research and human capital. (In a report I did for the New America Foundation a year ago, I proposed a five-year increase of $1 trillion for infrastructure investment.) The Jobs Council report recommends a significant increase in infrastructure investment but does not set a target.

The two reports concur that the multiplier effects of an increase in infrastructure spending are substantial, citing recent estimates by Moody’s and the Congressional Budget Office that $1 billion of infrastructure spending generates about a $1.6 billion increase in G.D.P. According to Moody’s, the multiplier for government spending on infrastructure is even larger than the multiplier for a payroll tax cut, the largest component of the president’s proposed jobs act.

And according to the C.B.O., infrastructure spending is one of the most cost-effective forms of government spending in terms of the number of jobs created per dollar of budgetary cost. The Jobs Council report cites studies indicating that each $1 billion of government infrastructure spending creates 4,000 to 18,000 jobs. Most of these jobs are relatively well paid.

Critics of infrastructure spending as a form of fiscal stimulus point out that the lags in such spending are long and variable. It often takes considerable time to initiate and complete infrastructure projects, even those deemed “shovel-ready” with engineering plans in place.

In 2009, when many economists thought (or hoped) the recession’s effects would be temporary, the conventional wisdom was that fiscal stimulus measures should be “targeted, timely and temporary.” Nearly three years later, the consensus among economists is that the United States will be mired in an anemic recovery with high unemployment for several years.

So what the country needs now is not temporary stimulus measures that increase consumer spending but sustained stimulus that increases investment spending over several years.

Yet more than just additional money is required. As the Jobs Council report highlights, an increase in funds must be coupled with reforms to select and carry out projects efficiently, based on cost-benefit analysis.

The Obama administration has urged the Congress to adopt such reforms in its reauthorization of multiyear surface-transportation legislation, because political pressures more often drive project selection than cost-benefit considerations. For example, state and local governments frequently allocate federal infrastructure funds to build roads and bridges rather than to fix existing ones, despite compelling evidence that repairs are more cost-effective. A recent study for the Hamilton Project lays out the efficiency case for a “fix it” strategy for spending on transportation infrastructure.

Road pavement tends to deteriorate slowly at first; its rate of deterioration accelerates over time. It’s often much cheaper to repair a road early on, when it’s still in fair condition, than when it falls into a condition of serious disrepair.

The foundation report makes a related argument, noting that deteriorating infrastructure is subject to “cost acceleration,” as repair and replacement costs rise over time. A project that costs $5 million to repair now may cost more than $30 million to repair two years from now. Deferred maintenance on essential infrastructure is not fiscally wise but fiscally irresponsible. That’s why many of the infrastructure investments in the American Jobs Act focus on rebuilding and repairing roads, bridges and schools.

Even when infrastructure projects are carefully selected, they often face permit and approval delays that can last for months, even years — though, recently, far less than the C.B.O. had anticipated. Eighty percent of the highway funds in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act were deployed between February 2009, when the act was passed, and the end of fiscal year 2011 (far exceeding the C.B.O.’s prediction of 55 percent).

The Jobs Council report includes numerous recommendations to reduce permitting and approval delays, calling on local, state and federal agencies to develop coordinated one-stop shops to eliminate duplication and harmonize project approval standards and practices.

As a first step, President Obama has identified 14 high-priority infrastructure projects for expedited review and permitting by the relevant federal agencies and has announced the creation of a “Projects Dashboard,” to track the projects as they move through the expedited process.

Members of Congress who argue that the federal government cannot afford the infrastructure investments in the American Jobs Act are wrong — the government’s borrowing costs are at a historic low. Borrowing now to fund efficient infrastructure projects will reap returns that exceed these costs and will reduce future deficits through job creation and higher growth.

An investment of $10 billion by the federal government to establish a national infrastructure bank, as proposed in the jobs act, would also unleash additional private funds for infrastructure by fostering public-private partnerships. Many other developed countries have similar institutions and have successfully used them to tap private funds for infrastructure. Both of the new reports recommend the establishment of a national infrastructure bank, and bipartisan Congressional support for the idea is growing.

As the Jobs Council warns, there is no “silver bullet” that will solve the nation’s jobs crisis. But as the mounting protests around the country warn, the federal government must take concrete steps to address the crisis. Significant, timely and targeted investments in the nation’s deteriorating infrastructure should be one of these steps.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=d43e270fc2c32052eb1b8a3736e94d88

Economic Memo: Employment Data May Be the Key to the President’s Job

Seventeen months before the next election, it is increasingly clear that President Obama must defy that trend to keep his job.

Roughly 9 percent of Americans who want to go to work cannot find an employer. Companies are firing fewer people, but hiring remains anemic. And the vast majority of economic forecasters, including the president’s own advisers, predict only modest progress by November 2012.

The latest job numbers, due Friday, are expected to provide new cause for concern. Other indicators suggest the pace of growth is flagging. Weak manufacturing data, a gloomy reading on jobs in advance of Friday’s report and a drop in auto sales led the markets to their worst close since August.

But the grim reality of widespread unemployment is drawing little response from Washington. The Federal Reserve says it is all but tapped out. There is even less reason to expect Congressional action. Both Democrats and Republicans see clear steps to create jobs, but they are trying to walk in opposite directions and are making little progress.

Republicans have set the terms of debate by pressing for large cuts in federal spending, which they say will encourage private investment. Democrats have found themselves battling to minimize and postpone such cuts, which they fear will cause new job losses.

House Republicans told the president that they would not support new spending to spur growth during a meeting at the White House on Wednesday.

“The discussion really focused on the philosophical difference on whether Washington should continue to pump money into the economy or should we provide an incentive for entrepreneurs and small businesses to grow,” said Eric Cantor, the majority leader. “The president talked about a need for us to continue to quote-unquote invest from Washington’s standpoint, and for a lot of us that’s code for more Washington spending, something that we can’t afford right now.”

The White House, its possibilities constrained by the gridlock, has offered no new grand plans. After agreeing to extend the Bush-era tax cuts and reducing the payroll tax last December, the administration has focused on smaller ideas, like streamlining corporate taxation and increasing American exports to Asia and Latin America.

“It’s a very tough predicament,” said Jared Bernstein, who until April was economic policy adviser to Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. “Is there any political appetite for something that would resemble another large Keynesian stimulus? Obviously no. You can say that’s what we should do and you’d probably be right, but that’s pretty academic.”

More than 13.7 million Americans were unable to find work in April; most had been seeking jobs for months. Millions more have stopped trying. Their inability to earn money is a personal catastrophe; studies show that the chance of finding new work slips away with time. It is also a strain on their families, charities and public support programs.

The Federal Reserve, the nation’s central bank, has the means and the mandate to reduce unemployment by pumping money into the economy.

As financial markets nearly collapsed in 2008, the Fed unleashed a series of unprecedented programs, first to arrest the crisis and then to promote recovery, investing more than $2 trillion. The final installment, a $600 billion bond-buying program, ends in June.

Now, however, the leaders of the central bank say they are reluctant to do more. The Fed’s chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, said in April that more money might not increase growth, but there was a growing risk that it would accelerate inflation.

Congress charged the Fed in 1978 with minimizing unemployment and inflation. Those goals, however, are often in conflict, and the Fed has made clear that inflation is its priority. Fed officials argue in part that maintaining slow, steady inflation forms a basis for enduring economic expansion.

Eric S. Rosengren, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, said in a recent interview that the Fed had reached the limits of responsible policy.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=012e21cf280e5897041c58b195707321