December 22, 2024

Calling Bankers’ Bluff, Merkel Won Europe a Debt Plan

It was approaching 2 a.m. Thursday, not long before the Asian markets would open, and the two leaders were desperately trying to nail down the last component of a complex deal to save the euro: forcing the banks to pay a greater share of Greece’s effective default.

For hours, negotiators had been trying to persuade the banks to accede to a “voluntary” 50 percent loss in the face value of their Greek bond holdings. The banks, which had already agreed to a 21 percent write-down, had dug in their heels.

They knew how badly the European leaders needed a deal, and how much financial experts feared a disorderly, involuntary default. That could set off a “credit event,” throwing world financial markets into turmoil, much as the collapse of Lehman Brothers did in the fall of 2008.

But Mrs. Merkel called the bankers’ bluff, said officials present at the discussions. Accept the 50 percent write-down, she told the bankers, or bear the consequences of default. In effect, she was willing to risk a credit event, and to place the blame for any fallout on them.

The European success sent the markets soaring and laid out the path to a more comprehensive solution to the euro crisis, though the plan faces hurdles.

It includes an order to weak banks to raise more capital to protect against bad loans, and an effort — still very vague — to increase the firepower of the $625 billion bailout fund, the European Financial Stability Facility, to better protect large and vulnerable economies like Spain and Italy.

But the very process of achieving those steps underscored the many problems that lie ahead for the euro zone. While the rescue package has been hailed as an important step, it was achieved only under enormous pressure from the financial markets and with a steely, last-minute stand by Mrs. Merkel.

Foremost among those problems is Italy, which is too big to bail out, owing a total of $2.7 trillion, or 120 percent of its gross domestic product. While Italy runs a relatively small budget deficit, Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi’s government seems paralyzed, vowing structural changes to produce growth and to further shrink public spending, but it is so far too weak and divided to deliver on most of its promises.

Italian news outlets reported on Thursday that a number of lawmakers from Mr. Berlusconi’s coalition had signed a letter asking him to stand down to allow for the creation of a government that could pass the measures that would tranquilize jittery financial markets.

Market skepticism about Italy has led to high interest rates on its bonds, which if unchecked could rip huge holes into its budget and possibly provoke a full-blown credit crisis. With Mr. Berlusconi hanging on by a thread, and his coalition partner, Umberto Bossi of the Northern League, working to block fundamental change, Italy remains a major vulnerability in restoring market confidence to the euro.

European leaders Thursday welcomed new promises made by Mr. Berlusconi, including a weak pledge to increase the age for pensions to 67 from 65 by the year 2026, but said sternly that carrying them out was the key.

Along with the European Central Bank, they have demanded such changes in return for buying up Italian bonds at cheaper than market rates and helping to create the bailout fund, and now to expand it to about $1.4 trillion, because at $625 billion it is far too small to protect Italy or Spain, and nearly half of that is already committed.

But the leaders were vague about how to enlarge the fund, and reluctant to put up more of their own nations’ capital. They said they hoped to create another special fund open to investment by China, Russia and Japan — which all expressed a willingness to help in principle — as well as by other wealthy nations with surplus cash. But how such a fund would work, and what guarantees it would provide to investors, remain to be determined next month, European officials said. Until the details are clear, there is likely to be little investment.

Also left unclear are the details of how to leverage the existing fund, by guaranteeing a percentage of potential losses by bondholders. While Mr. Sarkozy said the aim was to leverage the fund up to $1.4 trillion, there was no agreement on the specific percentage the fund would guarantee. More should become clear by the time of the Group of 20 summit meeting on Nov. 3 and 4 in Cannes, France.

Even the Greek deal is considered not sufficient. By 2020, Greece, if all goes to plan — which so far it has not — will still have a debt of 120 percent of gross domestic product, the same figure that has everyone so worried about Italy. So Greek pain will continue as it tries to restart growth while balancing its budget and paying even this amount of accumulated debt. Even the write-down in the face value of Greek debt is problematic because it does not cover all of the country’s outstanding public debt, with the rest controlled by institutions that will not take part in the restructuring.

Liz Alderman contributed reporting from Paris, and Elisabetta Povoledo from Rome.

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Too Radical a Debt Plan From Greece

Under the proposal, Greece would transfer as much as 133 billion euros — or 40 percent of its government debt, equal to about $195 billion — to the European Central Bank, which would then pay off the obligation by issuing its own euro bond.

It would be a “restructuring without a haircut,” in the view of the plan’s proponents, who enthusiastically described it to Mr. Papandreou in a series of secret meetings this year. The result, ideally, would be to ease the weight of the Greek debt on the economy, clearing the way for renewed growth while keeping the bankers and credit-rating agencies on board.

In many ways, the plan was a dreamy alternative to the grim calculus of Europe’s demands for more austerity from Greece in return for more loans. And Mr. Papandreou went so far as to ask a political ally and the plan’s two proponents, a British and a Greek economist, to lobby Europeans in its favor.

But according to economists who participated in the discussions, Greece’s finance minister, George Papaconstantinou, was opposed, arguing that Germany, to say nothing of the central bank, would never accept it. And while a number of economists contend that Europe will have to develop a plan to restructure Greece’s debt, the Greek government has shelved the notion for now as it moves toward another bailout to keep the country out of bankruptcy.

“It was a nice idea, but not defensible in current circumstances,” said Daniel Gros, the head of the Center for European Policy Studies in Brussels, who took part in one of the meetings with the prime minister to discuss the plan’s merits. “If there is one person who cannot propose something like this, it is the Greek prime minister. It would have to be a German.”

This week, Mr. Papandreou is struggling to persuade his increasingly disruptive party members that Greece must agree to another round of austerity measures to qualify for a second portion of loans from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund.

Those measures include closing down public-sector enterprises, selling more assets and increasing tax revenue. The new package will be submitted to Greece’s Parliament on Thursday and a vote is expected before the end of the month.

Signs are growing, however, that the patience of the long-suffering Greek public is wearing thin. Mr. Papandreou’s approval ratings are below 30 percent and, as uncertainty builds, Greeks continue to take money out of the banking system.

Mr. Papandreou’s interest in a plan to transfer much of the country’s debt to the rest of Europe may well have been a passing fancy. And Mr. Papandreou’s chance of persuading Jean-Claude Trichet, the president of Europe’s central bank, to take on even more debt on top of the nearly 200 billion euros ($292 billion) it already is exposed to, was always going to be a long shot.

“The prime minister is in favor of the proposal,” said Vasso Papandreou, a former top financial adviser to the prime minister and an influential member of Parliament within the governing Socialist party, known as Pasok, who has been openly critical of the government’s austerity plan. “This is not a Greek problem any more — it’s a European problem.” (Ms. Papandreou is not related to the prime minister.)

A spokesman for the prime minister said that Mr. Papandreou and other European officials had long supported a euro bond as one policy option but that his current priority was to make the Greek economy competitive again.

“In search of the best solutions to effectively and permanently exit the crisis, the prime minister will continue to exchange views with his counterparts around the world as well as leading economists and academics,” he said.

The two architects of the idea have longstanding ties to Mr. Papandreou. They have characterized their sweeping plan, with a bit of cheek, as a modest proposal.

One of the architects, Yanis Varoufakis, a political economist and blogger at the University of Athens, was a speechwriter and adviser to Mr. Papandreou from 2004 to 2006. The other, Stuart Holland, is a Europe expert and former high-ranking official in Britain’s Labour Party who was a longtime adviser to Andreas Papandreou, Mr. Papandreou’s father, who was also Greece’s prime minister.

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