May 5, 2025

News Analysis: In France and Germany, Divergence on How to Recapitalize Banks

Analysts are skeptical that even the richest countries will be able to agree on guidelines for a broad, coordinated effort, one impressive enough to remove all doubts about solvency in the event of a default by Greece or another sovereign debtor.

In the first signs of a split, France wants to draw on the European bailout fund, the European Financial Stability Facility, to rebuild bank capital. German leaders think national governments should take the lead.

“Only if a country can’t do it on its own should the E.F.S.F. be used,” Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Friday.

But the sums required to armor banks against losses on government bonds — up to 300 billion euros, or about $400 billion, by some estimates — could jeopardize France’s top-notch credit rating. That would be a big political setback for President Nicolas Sarkozy before elections next May.

These kinds of arguments are just what economists fear. A parochial approach will lead countries to try to seek advantage for their own institutions, as has often been the pattern in the past, critics say. In addition, most large European banks have extensive operations and therefore require pan-European oversight, they argue.

“You need to have a European approach, which is tremendously difficult politically,” said Nicolas Véron, a senior fellow at Bruegel, a research organization in Brussels. “If it doesn’t happen, I am not very optimistic about the ability of European authorities to keep the crisis under control.”

When Fitch Ratings cut Spain’s credit rating Friday by two levels, to AA- from AA+, it cited the “intensification” of the debt crisis along with slower growth and shaky regional finances, Bloomberg News reported. Fitch cited similar reasons for also downgrading Italy one level, to A+, while maintaining Portugal at BBB-, saying it would complete a review of that ranking in the fourth quarter.

Meanwhile, grave problems at the French-Belgian bank Dexia, which is on the verge of its second taxpayer-financed bailout in three years, have dashed any illusions about the health of European banks. It was only in July that Dexia breezed through an official stress test that was supposed to expose vulnerable banks.

It has become obvious that restoring the soundness of European banks is fundamental to resolving the debt crisis and removing a serious threat to the global economy. Christine Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, has been urging a wholesale recapitalization for several months. In the United States, President Obama warned on Thursday that “the problems Europe is having right now could have a very real effect on our economy.”

But no one has provided even rough details of how to compel banks to raise money on open markets if they can, and to provide government financing if they can’t.

“Our experience is that if no one is talking about the details of something, it is because they do not exist,” Carl Weinberg, chief economist of High Frequency Economics, wrote in a note to clients Friday. “Let us just agree that there is no plan.”

Mrs. Merkel and Mr. Sarkozy are expected to discuss the issue when they meet in Berlin on Sunday, along with their finance ministers. The European Commission expects to produce its proposal for a coordinated recapitalization within a week.

Even if Dexia proves to be an isolated case, it is clear that investor confidence in the solvency of European banks is at a low ebb. European banks are reluctant to lend to one another, and United States lenders are reluctant to lend to European institutions. Banks have been unable to sell bonds to raise money.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=dc73d1648c1c737ad536e914f972fb93

Modest Growth in Jobs Tempers Recession Fears

But with a ballooning European debt crisis sending ripples across the Atlantic and anxiety continuing over the tortured political landscape here, there is little indication that American employers will hire enough to put the millions of unemployed people back to work any time soon.

The Labor Department said Friday that American employers added 103,000 net new jobs in September, indicating that the economy is at least not weakening and that businesses have weathered the oil price shocks and the Japanese disaster-related supply chain disruptions earlier this year.

The government also revised its estimates upward for the previous two months, suggesting that job growth in the summer was better than originally reported. Still, the Labor Department’s monthly snapshot captures the economic challenges as President Obama continues to press Congress to pass his jobs bill.

The economy is not growing fast enough to bring down the unemployment rate, which held steady at 9.1 percent in September. Local governments and school districts are cutting large numbers of workers. And about a third of the jobs added by the private sector last month were actually 45,000 Verizon workers who had been on strike during August and were simply returning to work.

More than two years after the recovery officially began, 14 million people are searching for work, a little less than half of them for at least six months.

The employment numbers for last month were “certainly not consistent with recession,” said Joshua Shapiro, chief United States economist at MFR. But “it’s certainly not off to the races, and in absolute terms it is still very, very weak.”

The tepid jobs report provided more ammunition for Mr. Obama’s Republican rivals, who seized on Friday’s results as further evidence of what they say is the president’s ineffective stewardship of the economy.

Large-scale job losses might have offered Mr. Obama help in pressuring Congress on his jobs bill. Strong growth in employment would help counter criticism from Republican presidential candidates. But the so-so results merely add to his dilemma.

“The president is offering only bad medicine — higher taxes, more spending, more dubious ‘green jobs’ boondoggles, and more tactical blame-gaming,” Representative Michele Bachmann of Minnesota said in a statement from her presidential campaign.

The rhetoric from Capitol Hill was equally critical. “Across the country, millions of people remain out of work, and uncertainty from Washington continues to freeze capital and prevent businesses small and large from hiring,” said Representative Eric Cantor of Virginia, the House majority leader.

In an interview, Gene Sperling, Mr. Obama’s chief economic adviser, said that critics of the jobs plan offered no viable alternative. “For anyone in Washington to look at an economy with 9.1 percent unemployment and projections that growth will be too weak to even improve it to then argue that we should sit on our hands and just do nothing is simply inexcusable,” Mr. Sperling said.

Some recent data paint a slightly better picture of the economy. Auto sales rose nearly 10 percent in September to their highest level in five months, and sales at chain stores increased last month, led by luxury purchases.

Still, the housing market is teetering and the number of people filing weekly for unemployment insurance remains high. The average length of unemployment rose to 40.5 weeks last month. Including those who are working part time because they cannot find full-time employment and those who are too discouraged to look for work anymore, the total unemployment rate rose to 16.5 percent last month.

Some economists worried that the headline on the September jobs report was not galvanizing enough for the president’s agenda. “Policy is running out of ammunition and the willingness here, particularly with today’s number, may be even less to do anything dramatic,” said Torsten Slok, chief international economist at Deutsche Bank.

“The optimists could argue that now we don’t need any more support because we have at least some evidence that the economy is not falling apart completely,” Mr. Slok continued.

Jennifer Steinhauer and Michael Shear contributed reporting from Washington.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=e9620d4af751b579e862678a53656875

U.S. Adds 103,000 Jobs; Rate Holds Steady at 9.1%

The unemployment rate for September was unchanged from August, 9.1 percent.

With President Obama continuing to press a balky Congress to pass his jobs bill, the Labor Department’s monthly snapshot highlighted the challenges for an administration faced with an economy that has struggled to deliver significant employment growth since the recovery started more than two years ago.

September’s number of new jobs was well more than analysts had expected — one consensus predicted a gain of 55,000 jobs — and the Labor Department also revised the August figure of zero job growth to a gain of 57,000 jobs.

Still, the report came on the heels of disappointing data about consumer confidence and the housing market. Economists have also grown increasingly concerned about a ballooning European debt crisis that could send ripples across the Atlantic.

In a news conference on Thursday, the president urged Congress to act to prevent weaker growth and more job losses. “There are too many people hurting in this country for us to do nothing,” Mr. Obama said. “And the economy is just too fragile for us to let politics get in the way of action.”

The private sector added 137,000 jobs in September, although that included about 45,000 Verizon workers who had been on strike during August and returned to work by September. As has been the case throughout most of the downturn and tepid recovery, health care and education were among the strongest sectors, adding 45,000 jobs in September.

The public sector was the weakest link, with local government shedding 35,000 jobs, including 24,400 in public education. Randi Weingarten, president of the American Federation of Teachers, said that with local budgets under such tight constraints, school districts were not hiring as many new teachers and classroom aides as they had in the past. She said that about 300,000 education jobs have been lost since 2008 and projected a further 280,000 job losses due to state and local budget cuts.

Over all, there were still 14 million people out of work, 6.2 million of whom have been on the job hunt for six months or more, the report showed. Including those who are working part-time because they cannot find full-time employment and those who are too discouraged to look for work anymore, the total unemployment rate rose to 16.5 percent in September.

Despite all the talk of another recession, some recent economic indicators actually paint a slightly better picture of the economy. Auto sales rose close to 10 percent in September to their highest level in five months, and sales at chain stores also rose last month. But the focus of political attention remains job growth.

Economists suggested that employers still have little incentive to add many jobs. “Given the complete lack of clarity as to what the economic outlook will be and the uncertainty about what’s going on in Europe and the political paralysis in Washington,” said Bernard Baumohl, chief economist at the Economic Outlook Group, “there is not much of an economic justification for employers to suddenly ramp up hiring.”

Other precursors of future hiring, such as temporary employment, showed modest improvement. Temporary help services added just 19,400 jobs in September. And the average weekly hours worked, which tend to rise before companies start hiring again, rose slightly, as did average weekly earnings.

Allen L. Sinai, chief global economist at Decision Economics, a consulting firm, said he supported the president’s jobs plan and estimated that it could create about 500,000 to 600,000 new jobs. But he said that even companies that are profitable are hesitant to part with their cash to hire people.

“C.E.O.’s are paid to grow shareholder value,” said. “They are not paid to hire people if demand isn’t there and if they can substitute machines for people. That’s a no-brainer for the people who run companies.”

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=e9620d4af751b579e862678a53656875

Wall Street Slump Lingers

The Standard Poor’s 500-stock index was down 2.85 percent, or 32.19 points. The Dow Jones industrial average was off 258.08 points, or 2.36 percent, to close at 10655.30, and the Nasdaq composite index dropped 3.29 percent. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond fell to 1.75 percent.

European markets fell after Asian stocks closed sharply lower.

Greece’s acknowledgment over the weekend that it would miss its deficit-reduction targets for this year and next, despite additional cuts in the public payroll, weighed on market sentiment, analysts at the French investment bank Crédit Agricole CIB wrote in a note.

Finance ministers from the 17 European Union nations that use the euro were meeting Monday in Luxembourg, but no decision was expected this week on whether to release the next installment of Greece’s bailout package.

The Purchasing Managers’ Index, a survey measuring economic activity in the euro zone, gave a dim outlook of the Continent’s economy. It registered at 48.5, its lowest measure in over two years. A figure of below 50 shows contraction. New orders fell to their lowest levels in 27 months. The only country in the euro zone to show any growth was Germany.

The worsening economic picture in Europe is driving down the euro, said Brian Dolan, chief currency strategist at Forex.com, a unit of the trading firm Gain Capital. It dropped to $1.3281, its lowest level since January.

“The euro zone has no growth solution to their debt crisis, and whatever they do in terms” of establishing a rescue fund, he said, “it’s not going to be a long-term solution,” he said.

Investors are awaiting a meeting of the European Central Bank on Thursday, and many expect the bank to cut interest rates. Analysts say such action could push the euro lower.

The dollar gained against most major currencies, as traders moved out of relatively risky assets. Its price in Swiss francs rose to 0.9183, up from 0.9082 francs. But it fell to 76.67 yen, down from 77.06 yen.

Meanwhile, in the United States, a report from the Institute for Supply Management showed stronger growth in factories in September than had been expected. The index registered 51.6 points, showing expansion — a reading over 50 — for the 26th consecutive month. But the index was still lower than a year ago and new orders contracted slightly, hinting at continued troubles ahead.

Construction spending increased 1.4 percent in August, according to the Commerce Department, driven largely by gains in the public sector.

And General Motors, Ford and Chrysler reported increases in sales of new vehicles last month, one of few areas of sharp growth in the domestic economy.

The stock prices of airlines were driven sharply lower by general concern about the American economy and speculation that AMR, the parent company of American Airlines, may be headed for bankruptcy. The concern about AMR stemmed from a report that an unusually large number of pilots have retired in recent months, said Ray Neidl, an analyst with Maxim Group. AMR’s stock price was down over 33 percent to $1.98. Delta’s stocks were down 11 percent, US Airways Group’s stocks were down almost 16 percent and Alaska Air Group’s shares fell about 9 percent. Airlines share prices are particularly sensitive to fears of economic downturn, because air travel drops sharply in times of economic strain.

Global equities, as tracked by the MSCI World Index, are down 14 percent so far this year, with many major indexes just concluding their worst quarterly drops since the world’s banks were teetering on the brink in 2008.

The broad American market, as measured by the S. P. 500, was down 10 percent in the first three quarters of 2011.

On Monday, the Euro Stoxx 50 index, a barometer of euro zone blue chips, closed down 1.9 percent, while the FTSE 100 index in London gave up 1 percent. The DAX in Frankfurt fell 2.3 percent.

Banks led the declines in Europe. Shares of Dexia, a French-Belgian lender that has struggled since it was bailed out in 2008, had fallen more than 9 percent after Moody’s Investors Service said it was considering a downgrade of the bank’s credit ratings. Investors were concerned about the bank’s exposure to Greek debt.

Asian shares were lower across the board. The Sydney market benchmark index fell 2.8 percent. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index closed down 4.4 percent.

Markets in mainland China and South Korea were closed for holidays.

In Japan, the Nikkei 225 stock average closed 1.8 percent lower despite news that business confidence had improved somewhat during the third quarter as the country continued its recovery from the devastating earthquake and tsunami that struck on March 11.

The Bank of Japan’s Tankan, a survey that tracks business sentiment, found confidence among large manufacturers as it rose to plus 2 in September, from minus 9 in June. Though the number remains weak, a reading in positive territory indicates that optimists outweigh pessimists.

American crude oil futures for November delivery were down 2.7 percent, at $76.93 a barrel. Comex gold contracts for December delivery were up 1.87 percent, at $1,654.20 an ounce.

David Jolly, Stephen Castle and Bettina Wassener contributed reporting.

This article has been revised to reflect the following correction:

Correction: October 3, 2011

Because of an editing error, an earlier version of this article misstated the price of oil. It is trading slightly above $77, not $777.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/04/business/global/daily-stock-market-activity.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Second-Quarter G.D.P. Grew at 1.3% Rate

The United States economy grew slightly more than previously reported in the second quarter, helped by consumer spending and export growth that was stronger than earlier estimated, according to a government report on Thursday that pointed to slow growth rather than a recession.

The nation’s gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of 1.3 percent, the Commerce Department said in its third and final estimate for the quarter, up from the previously estimated 1.0 percent.

The revision was a touch above economists’ expectations for a 1.2 percent pace and took G.D.P. growth back to the government’s original estimate of 1.3 percent. The economy expanded at a 0.4 percent rate in the first three months of the year.

  Separately, new claims for jobless benefits fell sharply last week to their lowest level since April, although a Labor Department official said government statisticians had problems seasonally adjusting the data. 

 Applications for unemployment benefits fell by 37,000 to a seasonally adjusted level of 391,000 claims in the week that ended Sept. 24, down from an upwardly revised 428,000 the prior week, the Labor Department said on Thursday.  

Analysts polled by Reuters had expected new claims to total 420,000 last week.

The Commerce Department report also showed that while the expenditure side of the economy showed severe weakness in the first half of the year, economic activity as measured by income fared a little better. Gross domestic income rose at a 1.3 percent rate in the second quarter after increasing 2.4 percent in the first quarter.

After-tax corporate profits rose at a 4.3 percent rate in the second quarter, the largest increase in a year, instead of 4.1 percent. Profit ticked up 0.1 percent in the first quarter.

Political haggling in Washington over budget policy and a deepening debt crisis in Europe have eroded confidence, leaving the American economy on the brink of a new recession.

There is cautious optimism the economy will skirt another downturn as factory output continues to expand, although at a slower pace than earlier in the recovery, and businesses maintain their appetite for spending on capital goods.

Details of the G.D.P. revisions also were consistent with an economy that is on a slow growth track rather than sliding back into recession.

Consumer spending growth was revised up to a 0.7 percent rate from 0.4 percent. The increase in spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity, was still the smallest since the fourth quarter of 2009.

Export growth was stronger than previously estimated, rising at a 3.6 percent rate instead of 3.1 percent. Imports increased at a 1.4 percent rate rather than 1.9 percent.

That left a smaller trade deficit, and trade contributed 0.24 percentage point to G.D.P. growth.

Businesses accumulated less stock than previously estimated in the quarter, which should support growth in the July-September quarter. Business inventories increased $39.1 billion instead of $40.6 billion, cutting 0.28 percentage point from G.D.P. growth during the quarter.

Excluding inventories, the economy grew at a 1.6 percent pace instead of 1.2 percent.

Business spending was revised to a 10.3 percent rate from 9.9 percent rate as investment in nonresidential structures offset a slight slowdown in outlays in equipment and software. Spending on nonresidential structures was the fastest since the third quarter of 2007.

The G.D.P. report also showed inflation pressures remaining elevated during the quarter, with the personal consumption expenditures price index, or P.C.E., rising at a revised 3.3 percent rate. That compared to 3.9 percent in the first quarter.

The core P.C.E. index, which is closely watched by the Federal Reserve, advanced at a 2.3 percent rate, the largest increase since the second quarter of 2008. It was revised up from 2.2 percent.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=83ffb160900bef41691f1817bf249a42

Worry on Euro Debt Ends 3 Days of Gains

Raw materials companies helped depress the major indexes after prices for commodities like copper and oil plunged.

Traders focused on remarks by Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany suggesting that the second bailout package for Greece might have to be renegotiated. Several European leaders want banks to take bigger losses on Greek bonds, but France and the European Central Bank oppose the idea.

Germany’s Parliament is set to vote Thursday on a measure that would give a European rescue fund more powers to fight the region’s debt crisis. Finland’s Parliament approved the proposal Wednesday, lifting some uncertainty over the crisis, which has dogged financial markets since late July.

“This is a market that has been fluctuating and is thoroughly susceptible to any news, any rumors, any innuendos” about Europe, said Quincy Krosby, a market strategist at Prudential Financial.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 179.79 points, or 1.6 percent, to close at 11,010.90. It had gained 413 points over the last two days. The Standard Poor’s 500-stock index fell 24.32, or 2.1 percent, to 1,151.06. The Nasdaq composite index fell 55.25, or 2.2 percent, to 2,491.58.

Declines were broad. Only 17 of the 500 stocks in the S. P. 500 rose.

Raw materials stocks were down 4.5 percent. Investors fear that Europe’s problems could cause another global recession, weakening demand for basic materials like copper. The price of copper plunged 5.6 percent; crude oil fell 3.8 percent, to $81.21 a barrel..

The mining company Freeport-McMoRan Copper and Gold declined 7.2 percent, and Cliffs Natural Resources fell 8.4 percent. The coal producer Alpha Natural Resources was down 11 percent, the most of any company in the S. P.

Orders for durable goods slipped 0.1 percent last month. The modest decline was largely a result of an 8.5 percent drop in orders for automobiles and automobile parts.

Economists looked past the total figure and focused on a 1.1 percent increase in a crucial category that measures business investment plans. That is core capital goods that are not used for defense or transportation.

Shipments of those goods rose 2.8 percent, the fourth consecutive gain in the category. The government looks closely at shipment figures when calculating economic growth.

Economists said the fact that businesses kept expanding and modernizing during the turbulent month suggested many were confident about the future.

“Business capital spending is rising,” said Christopher Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi in New York. “There is no recession.”

The Dow jumped 126 points minutes after the opening bell on that report. But those gains were gone within an hour, and the selling intensified in the last half-hour of trading.

The decline followed three days of gains. Stocks rose earlier this week on hopes that Europe was moving closer to resolving its debt problems. The Dow soared 272 points on Monday, its fourth-largest increase this year, and 147 points more on Tuesday.

“The market got ahead of itself,” said Joseph Saluzzi, co-head of stock trading at Themis Trading. Investors “assumed some kind of deal would be structured, and that was so far away from happening.”

Technology companies fared better than the overall market. The online retailer Amazon.com shot up 2.5 percent after it unveiled the Kindle Fire, a tablet device that will cost $199 and will compete with Apple’s hugely successful iPad.

Jabil Circuit, an electronics parts maker, rose 8.4 percent. The company reported strong earnings and a fourth-quarter earnings forecast that was better than analysts had expected.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell 2/32 to 101 8/32, pushing its yield to 1.99 percent, down from 1.98 percent on Tuesday.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=c74b28f8b95684021059fdabf8235390

Stocks and Bonds: Nagging Fears on Europe Slow a Wall Street Rally

Stocks rose on Tuesday, extending a global rally into a third consecutive day, as investors anticipated a more ambitious plan by European leaders to deal with the euro zone debt crisis. But they were unable to hold on to their sharpest gains.

After jumping 2.5 percent on Monday, the Dow Jones industrial average added 1.33 percent Tuesday, rising 146.83 points, to 11,190.69. Earlier in the day, the Dow was up as much as 325 points. But the markets lost steam in late trading on concerns that a second bailout for Greece could be scuttled by countries that wanted banks to shoulder more of the burden.

The euphoria at the start of the week centered on talk of a plan to give extra firepower to Europe’s proposed 440 billion euro (about $600 million) bailout fund for troubled nations and banks. Under a possible new plan, the fund could be enhanced to insure as much as a couple of trillion euros in loans.

Even if leaders manage to eventually expand the war chest, it is far from certain that the larger crisis in Europe will be contained. For one thing, the money might not be enough if the already weakened European economy falls into a prolonged recession. Recent data show that manufacturing and services activity there are sliding toward contraction, and that the region’s economy probably stagnated in the third quarter.

As it is, Greece, Portugal and Spain are looking at lengthy economic downturns as a result of harsh austerity measures adopted to straighten their finances. In Italy, economists are increasingly worried that that a 45 billion euro ($61 billion) austerity package recently rushed through Parliament could tip the economy into a downturn.

Germany and France also have started to show signs of a slowdown, a more worrisome development since they are considered engines of the European economy.

“They are buying time,” said Jens Nordvig, an economist at Nomura in New York. “But it only postpones the problem. Growth is slowing in countries like Italy. They may be too late.”

The immediate hurdle for each of the 17 countries in the euro currency zone is to approve the 440 billion euro fund proposed in July. So far only seven have done so. Slovenia signed off on Tuesday and there are critical votes set for Wednesday in Finland and in Germany on Thursday.

European leaders say the process should be completed by mid-October but already investors judge it insufficient to cope with the scale of problems in Greece and other troubled nations.

As a result, a new plan is emerging in Europe that would let the European Central Bank or another European institution, like the European Investment Bank, buy troubled sovereign debt or loans from euro zone banks with the backing of the fund.

Timothy F. Geithner, the Treasury secretary, turned up the heat on Europe in the last few days to expand the war chest exponentially by leveraging its resources, possibly by running it like a bank that could borrow additional money.

The governor of Canada’s central bank, Mark Carney, said last week that Europe should make about one trillion euros available to “overwhelm” the crisis.

Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, a member of the executive board of the European Central Bank, offered cautious backing to the idea on Tuesday, saying leaders “need to look at possible leverage.” The bank’s support would probably be essential to such a plan.

But critics said that using it to buy distressed government debt held by banks would only shift the problem to Europe’s taxpayers. That would worsen the region’s sovereign debt crisis and potentially compromise even relatively strong nations like Germany and France.

Other Europeans are grumbling that the United States is hardly in a position to lecture them on how to manage a crisis, and it is not clear how quickly or easily the fund could be expanded. Germany, for one, does not want the independent central bank to be involved in the fund’s operations.

Still, no politician wants to pump even more taxpayer money directly into the fund, which would anger voters and put the AAA ratings of Germany and France at risk. Wolfgang Schaüble, the German finance minister, on Tuesday derided the idea as “silly.”

The prospect of a new plan, which emerged during a weekend of meetings of world leaders in Washington and after some urging by the United States, seemed to represent a realization that Europe had to do something to bring itself back from the brink. For weeks, global markets had lurched downward and investors had become increasingly concerned that Europe’s failure to act was disrupting confidence and growth around the world.

On Tuesday in Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 index, a barometer of euro zone blue chips, closed up 5.3 percent.

Later, the United States markets gave up some of their gains after The Financial Times reported that some countries were demanding that banks take a bigger hit in Greece’s debt restructuring and that Greece needed deeper financing than was thought two months ago. The Standard Poor’s 500-stock index rose 1.07 percent, or 12.43 points, to 1,175.38, and the Nasdaq composite index gained 1.2 percent, to 2,546.83.

Earlier Tuesday, Mohamed A. El-Erian, chief executive of Pimco, who has long been pessimistic about Europe’s efforts to solve its crisis, expressed optimism for a solution. “They recognize they have deep problems and they recognize they need to do something about it,” he said in a Bloomberg radio interview. “This was a very important wake-up call for Europe.” He added that European leaders “finally get it.”

But skepticism remained.

“It is not clear to me that, though they may have ‘got it,’ anything has actually happened,” said Carl Weinberg, an economist at High Frequency Economics. “At this point, you have got to show me the money.”

Joshua Brustein contributed reporting.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=bd62772a11b062080fbc6b08416eec84

Rally in Stocks, Euro Fades as Debt Crisis Drags

The dollar rose and core euro zone government bond yields were flat.

Equity markets have rallied over the past few sessions on expectations that European officials will aggressively tackle the debt crisis in its peripheral economies, notably Greece, by boosting the euro zone’s 440 billion euro rescue fund.

But the plans face opposition in Germany and there are signs of a split within the currency bloc over the terms of Greece’s next bailout.

European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso, however, indicated Greek banks could receive more help.

The uncertainty was enough to take the air out of the tentative global stock rally.

World stocks as measured by MSCI were down 0.1 percent with the FTSEurofirst 300 opening sharply lower before stabilising around a half a percent down.

The European index has lost close to 17 percent this year.

Japan’s Nikkei earlier closed flat.

“The market has obviously got enthusiastic about discussions about the European Financial Stability Fund,” said Andrea Williams, fund manager at Royal London Asset Management.

“But we are a long way from it being concluded.”

International auditors were heading for Athens to continue discussions on the next tranche of agreed aid, while Germany suggested a new bailout may be renegotiated.

EURO LEVELS

The euro rose 0.1 percent to $1.3607, paring some of the previous day’s gains when it rose to a high of $1.3668.

It has lost 5.6 percent so far this month but is off an eight-month low of $1.3361 hit on Monday.

“We saw a late reversal of some of last night’s big risk on moves on reports that European leaders were not completely united on the planned policy response,” ANZ said in a note.

The dollar was slightly higher against a basket of major currencies.

German Bunds reversed early losses and briefly turned negative on the day after Barroso spoke.

“There were comments from Barroso on considering a wider lending mechanism to help the Greek banking system and that’s knocked Bunds a bit and also we have the five-year (German) supply coming up,” a trader said.

Germany will sell 6 billion euros of new 5-year bonds later in the day.

(Reporting by Jeremy Gaunt; editing by Anna Willard)

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2011/09/26/business/business-us-markets-global.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Nagging Fears on Europe Slow a Wall Street Rally

Stocks rose on Tuesday, extending a global rally into a third consecutive day, as investors anticipated a more ambitious plan by European leaders to deal with the euro zone debt crisis. But they were unable to hold on to their sharpest gains.

After jumping 2.5 percent on Monday, the Dow Jones industrial average added 1.33 percent Tuesday, rising 146.83 points, to 11,190.69. Earlier in the day, the Dow was up as much as 325 points. But the markets lost steam in late trading on concerns that a second bailout for Greece could be scuttled by countries that wanted banks to shoulder more of the burden.

The euphoria at the start of the week centered on talk of a plan to give extra firepower to Europe’s proposed 440 billion euro (about $600 million) bailout fund for troubled nations and banks. Under a possible new plan, the fund could be enhanced to insure as much as a couple of trillion euros in loans.

Even if leaders manage to eventually expand the war chest, it is far from certain that the larger crisis in Europe will be contained. For one thing, the money might not be enough if the already weakened European economy falls into a prolonged recession. Recent data show that manufacturing and services activity there are sliding toward contraction, and that the region’s economy probably stagnated in the third quarter.

As it is, Greece, Portugal and Spain are looking at lengthy economic downturns as a result of harsh austerity measures adopted to straighten their finances. In Italy, economists are increasingly worried that that a 45 billion euro ($61 billion) austerity package recently rushed through Parliament could tip the economy into a downturn.

Germany and France also have started to show signs of a slowdown, a more worrisome development since they are considered engines of the European economy.

“They are buying time,” said Jens Nordvig, an economist at Nomura in New York. “But it only postpones the problem. Growth is slowing in countries like Italy. They may be too late.”

The immediate hurdle for each of the 17 countries in the euro currency zone is to approve the 440 billion euro fund proposed in July. So far only seven have done so. Slovenia signed off on Tuesday and there are critical votes set for Wednesday in Finland and in Germany on Thursday.

European leaders say the process should be completed by mid-October but already investors judge it insufficient to cope with the scale of problems in Greece and other troubled nations.

As a result, a new plan is emerging in Europe that would let the European Central Bank or another European institution, like the European Investment Bank, buy troubled sovereign debt or loans from euro zone banks with the backing of the fund.

Timothy F. Geithner, the Treasury secretary, turned up the heat on Europe in the last few days to expand the war chest exponentially by leveraging its resources, possibly by running it like a bank that could borrow additional money.

The governor of Canada’s central bank, Mark Carney, said last week that Europe should make about one trillion euros available to “overwhelm” the crisis.

Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, a member of the executive board of the European Central Bank, offered cautious backing to the idea on Tuesday, saying leaders “need to look at possible leverage.” The bank’s support would probably be essential to such a plan.

But critics said that using it to buy distressed government debt held by banks would only shift the problem to Europe’s taxpayers. That would worsen the region’s sovereign debt crisis and potentially compromise even relatively strong nations like Germany and France.

Other Europeans are grumbling that the United States is hardly in a position to lecture them on how to manage a crisis, and it is not clear how quickly or easily the fund could be expanded. Germany, for one, does not want the independent central bank to be involved in the fund’s operations.

Still, no politician wants to pump even more taxpayer money directly into the fund, which would anger voters and put the AAA ratings of Germany and France at risk. Wolfgang Schaüble, the German finance minister, on Tuesday derided the idea as “silly.”

The prospect of a new plan, which emerged during a weekend of meetings of world leaders in Washington and after some urging by the United States, seemed to represent a realization that Europe had to do something to bring itself back from the brink. For weeks, global markets had lurched downward and investors had become increasingly concerned that Europe’s failure to act was disrupting confidence and growth around the world.

On Tuesday in Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 index, a barometer of euro zone blue chips, closed up 5.3 percent.

Later, the United States markets gave up some of their gains after The Financial Times reported that some countries were demanding that banks take a bigger hit in Greece’s debt restructuring and that Greece needed deeper financing than was thought two months ago. The Standard Poor’s 500-stock index rose 1.07 percent, or 12.43 points, to 1,175.38, and the Nasdaq composite index gained 1.2 percent, to 2,546.83.

Earlier Tuesday, Mohamed A. El-Erian, chief executive of Pimco, who has long been pessimistic about Europe’s efforts to solve its crisis, expressed optimism for a solution. “They recognize they have deep problems and they recognize they need to do something about it,” he said in a Bloomberg radio interview. “This was a very important wake-up call for Europe.” He added that European leaders “finally get it.”

But skepticism remained.

“It is not clear to me that, though they may have ‘got it,’ anything has actually happened,” said Carl Weinberg, an economist at High Frequency Economics. “At this point, you have got to show me the money.”

Joshua Brustein contributed reporting.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=bd62772a11b062080fbc6b08416eec84

Economix Blog: Weekend Business Podcast: On the Fed, Christine Lagarde and China

The Federal Reserve started Operation Twist, but the stock market was unimpressed.

Although the markets stabilized on Friday, global stock prices fell sharply after the Federal Reserve announced on Wednesday that it would shift its bond portfolio toward longer-term maturities, in a reprise of a 1960s maneuver known as Operation Twist. In a conversation on the new Weekend Business podcast, Floyd Norris says that the Fed’s initiative was overshadowed by concern over the Greek debt crisis and its threat to banks in Europe and elsewhere around the world.

The International Monetary Fund has been playing a prominent role in the crisis, with Christine Lagarde, the agency’s new director, openly urging European governments to be much bolder. David Gillen talks to Liz Alderman in Paris about the former French finance minister’s surprisingly independent stand in her first weeks as I.M.F. chief.

The rapid growth of China’s economy has been one of the major developments of the last few decades. David Barboza, a reporter based in Shanghai, says that while China is likely to continue growing at a rate that many other countries would envy, the chances of a major setback appear to be growing as well.

And in a separate conversation in the podcast, Christina Romer, the Berkeley economist and former Obama economic adviser, says that the president’s current jobs plan is sound, though she says it should, perhaps, be even more ambitious.

You can find specific segments of the podcast at these junctures: Floyd Norris on the Fed (36:43); news summary (28:22); Liz Alderman on Christine Lagarde (24:56); David Barboza on China (17:41); Christina Romer on the jobs plan (9:11); the week ahead (1:42).

As articles discussed in the podcast are published during the weekend, links will be added to this post.

You can download the program by subscribing from The New York Times’s podcast page or directly from iTunes.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=3f8ede8ec135fffb533e56998bb332f4