December 22, 2024

Political Economy: The City of London as Savior of E.U. Finance

It is perhaps too much to expect the Conservative-led government in Britain to lead any initiatives on Europe, given the orgy of self-destruction in the party over whether Britain should stay in the European Union. But insofar as David Cameron manages to get some respite from the madness, he should introduce a strategy to enhance the City of London as Europe’s financial center.

Britain has in recent years been playing a defensive game in response to the barrage of misguided financial rules from Brussels. It now needs to get on its front foot and sell the City as part of the solution to Europe’s problems. The opportunity is huge both for Britain and the rest of Europe.

The chance of getting the Union to swing behind a pro-London strategy may, on the face of it, seem like pie in the sky. Many people blame the finance industry for the financial crisis. So how could they be part of the solution? What is more, Continental Europeans have long tended to be suspicious of financial markets.

Hence, the plan by 11 E.U. countries (not including Britain) to apply a tax on all financial transactions. Hence, too, the recent decision to cap bankers’ bonuses throughout the Union (over London’s objections) and a plan, so far not agreed upon, to do the same for fund managers.

The oddity about those rules is that they do nothing to address the causes of the financial crisis. Trading in financial instruments was not responsible for the crisis. Nor were fund managers. And although banker compensation does bear some of the blame, the so-called solution is cockeyed. Banks will react to bonus limits by pushing up fixed salaries — which will make their finances more vulnerable when the next crisis hits.

Meanwhile, the financial transaction tax could gum up markets so badly, pushing up the cost of capital and constricting growth, that even its supporters are having doubts. Britain is rightly trying to challenge the plan through the courts because of its extraterritorial implications. Any trading involving financial instruments issued by entities in the 11 countries would be caught by the tax, even if the transactions took place entirely in London.

Despite those obstacles, Britain has a genuine opportunity to turn things around. To do so, it must challenge the conventional script, under which old-fashioned banking is seen as good and capital markets bad. The truth is Europe has a banking crisis, not a capital markets one.

Banks have lent too much money to clients who cannot pay it back. Their balance sheets were too weak to start off. Now they are unable to lend to the real economy, throttling growth.

Banks are dangerous beasts. They are not well suited to provide long-term finance, as the Group of Thirty, an influential financial policy group, pointed out in a report this year. Banks fund themselves with deposits and other short-term money. As a result, they do not lend long term, or if they do, they expose themselves and taxpayers to huge risks if liquidity dries up.

The contrast between the United States and Europe is stark. In the United States, banks provide only 19 percent of long-term financing, according to the McKinsey Global Institute. In big European countries, they provide between 59 percent and 71 percent.

America is a much heavier user of securitization, where corporate loans and mortgages are bundled up and sold to investors in the capital markets. Nearly half of long-term financing there is via securitization. In France and Germany, it is only 2 percent and 3 percent, respectively.

The corporate bond market is also in its infancy in Western Europe. Only 21 percent of the debt financing for nonfinancial companies comes from bonds. In the United States, it is 45 percent.

With the European Union’s banking system haunted by zombies, its excessive reliance on banks to provide financing is dragging down the whole economy. It is telling that the European Central Bank thinks that the way to get loans flowing to small businesses in peripheral countries is to revive the securitization market.

Overdependence on banks is not just a short-term problem. Even when the euro crisis is finally over, banks will be unable to do a good job of funding industry. They are rightly being required to hold bigger capital and liquidity buffers, which will push up their costs.

The euro zone’s half-hearted move toward a banking union will lead to even tighter regulation. The E.C.B., which will take over bank supervision next year, will first subject lenders to scrutiny to see whether they are hiding bad debts. It understandably does not want banks blowing up on its watch.

What is more, if Germany eventually agrees to backstop banks in the rest of the zone, the quid pro quo could well be that those lenders will be required to have fortress balance sheets. Berlin will want the chance of that backstop’s ever being used to be virtually zero.

All of this means that the only way of getting a healthy European financial system is to build up its capital markets. This is a huge opportunity for the City, as the bulk of the business would be routed through London. Mr. Cameron should start campaigning for that now. If he can push through such an agenda, it will not just be good for Britain; it will be a powerful argument in any future referendum for staying in the European Union.

Hugo Dixon is editor at large of Reuters News.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/20/business/global/the-city-of-london-as-savior-of-eu-finance.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

DealBook: UBS Trader Accused of Fraud to Remain in Custody

Kweku M. Adoboli, the former UBS traderSang Tan/Associated PressKweku M. Adoboli, the former UBS trader accused of costing the bank $2.3 billion in losses, at the City of London Magistrates Court on Thursday.

7:21 p.m. | Updated

LONDON — Kweku M. Adoboli, the UBS trader accused of costing the big Swiss bank $2.3 billion in losses, will remain in police custody until a hearing next month after his lawyer said in court on Thursday that Mr. Adoboli would not seek bail.

The British authorities, meanwhile, amended their charges against Mr. Adoboli, adding a second fraud charge for activities from October 2008 through 2010. Mr. Adoboli also faces two charges for false accounting. At the hearing, the prosecutor, David Levy, said Mr. Adoboli had “acted improperly” and that “he carried out reckless and inappropriate trades which he hid.”

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Mr. Adoboli’s lawyer, Patrick Gibbs, did not enter a plea at the hearing, but said Mr. Adoboli was “sorry beyond words for what had happened.”

He added, “He stands now appalled at the scale of the consequences of his disastrous miscalculations.”

Wearing a dark gray suit, crisp white shirt and dark blue tie, Mr. Adoboli briefly bowed toward the visitors’ gallery in the court with his hands crossed over his chest. In his second brief court appearance since his arrest a week ago, Mr. Adoboli — who looked tense sitting behind a glass wall in a packed room at the City of London Magistrates Court — spoke only to confirm his name, address and date of birth.

Mr. Adoboli, 31, was arrested on Sept. 15 at 3:30 a.m. on suspicion of fraud after UBS had alerted the police. Authorities filed fraud and false accounting charges the next day. UBS said Sunday that it had lost $2.3 billion as the result of unauthorized trades in equity index futures. Mr. Adoboli, according to the bank, masked those activities from internal risk controls with fictitious trades. Mr. Adoboli worked at the bank’s Delta One desk, focusing on exchange-traded funds.

The next court hearing in the case will be Oct. 20. Prosecutors met with Mr. Adoboli’s legal team on Thursday morning, agreeing to move up the court date.

While Mr. Adoboli was in court in London, UBS’s chief executive, Oswald J. Grübel, was at a board meeting in Singapore where executives discussed the future of the investment banking business and how to improve earnings by restoring investor and client confidence.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=e5556cdf7edb90254ccf83d50edfe770

Weak Economic Data Belies British Optimism

“The British economy is recovering,” Mr. Osborne said to a room full of London’s financial elite. “Half a million new private sector jobs have been created and our budget deficit is now falling from its record highs. Stability has returned.”

The chancellor’s state of the economy speech is an occasion of politesse and ritual held annually at the 18th-century residence of the lord mayor of the city of London. The guardian of the British economy sets out the government’s financial strategy, and bankers and fund managers, who are now largely responsible for financing Britain’s swollen budget deficit, tend not to disagree.

As the weaker economies in the euro zone have flirted with bankruptcy, British bonds have performed well, acting as a haven of sorts despite the fact that the budget deficit, at 10 percent of gross domestic product, is about the level of Greece’s.

That Britain is not in the euro zone and can depreciate its currency to increase exports has been a crucial contributor to investor confidence. Perhaps even more so, however, has been the public campaign waged by Mr. Osborne to persuade voters and bondholders alike that Britain can return to the path for long-term growth only by cutting government spending.

But as growth numbers continue to disappoint, Mr. Osborne’s job is becoming more of a challenge.

On Wednesday, data released by the government revealed that the number of people seeking unemployment benefits jumped by 19,600 in May compared with the month before, a two-year high that reflects the continuing reluctance of employers to hire as growth stagnates.

Not all was bad in the report. The unemployment rate held steady at 7.7 percent, as Mr. Osborne pointed out Wednesday night. But the increase in the number of job seekers, together with signs that wages were not expanding, is the latest evidence that the economy is stuck in a rut.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, a multinational research group based in Paris, recently lowered its forecast for British economic growth to 1.4 percent for this year. Even the International Monetary Fund is projecting a sickly rate of 1.5 percent. These projections, along with many by investment banks in London, are lower than the government’s official forecast of 1.7 percent for this year.

“Mathematically, I just do not see where growth is going to come from,” said Tim Morgan, head of research at Tullett Prebon, a brokerage firm here. He said that past sources of growth, like real estate, construction, health and education spending and financial services, were showing no sign of recovery.

As a result, he contended, Britain was unlikely to grow by more than 1.5 percent a year in the near future. “And without growth, there is no tax revenue,” he said. “Debt and deficits rise, as does the cost of servicing Britain’s debt, and you then come to a point when the credit agencies begin to look at a downgrade.”

For an economy that is dependent on the public markets, and on foreign investors in particular, to finance its borrowing, such a possibility would represent a Greece-style disaster.

In his speech on Wednesday, Mr. Osborne touched on this concern. He said that the economy continued to face stiff challenges, and that the stagnant banking sector was hampering growth. “Our banking system fueled the boom,” he said, “Now it is slowing the recovery from the bust.”

Mr. Osborne endorsed proposals that would require banks to hold more capital and partly shield consumer operations from investment banking. The proposals, which would most likely increase operating costs for banks, were initially made in an interim report by the government-backed Independent Commission on Banking in April.

Mr. Osborne’s backing makes it more likely that the rules, which include a so-called ring-fencing of consumer deposits from potential losses at investment banking operations, would be made law. That would put Britain ahead of the United States in pushing through changes to separate more clearly the traditional deposit-taking services from the riskier but more lucrative trading operations.

Mr. Morgan’s more alarmist views about the economy are not widely held at this point. With bond yields at 3.2 percent, comfortably below those of the weaker European economies, such a crisis, if it comes at all, is by no means imminent.

All the same, Mr. Morgan is not alone in warning that the battle to reduce Britain’s debt and deficits is hitting a wall. Morgan Stanley, in a more restrained report, said that the government’s growth forecasts were optimistic. It also pointed out that the real level of debt, at about 70 percent of gross domestic product, may be understated owing to another trillion pounds worth of unfunded pension liabilities. Funds backing Britain’s bailed-out banks are also not included in official figures.

For now, however, investors seem inclined to give Mr. Osborne and the government the benefit of the doubt.

In his speech on Wednesday night, Mr. Osborne emphasized how, in a world of declining debt ratings, Britain still maintained its AAA rating.

“We have a deficit larger than Portugal, but virtually the same interest rates as Germany,” he said. But if growth continues to disappoint, that may no longer be the case.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=72d2e472e33de453cb49cc0485936138