Although the presidential race has mostly been about pocketbook concerns and, to a lesser extent, Taiwan’s relationship with China, the leading challenger has made the elimination of Taiwan’s reliance on nuclear energy a central plank of her campaign. Pollsters and analysts say that the challenger, Tsai Ing-wen of the Democratic Progressive Party, has a good chance of unseating the incumbent, Ma Ying-jeou, whose party has long been a reliable backer of nuclear energy.

In recent months, Ms. Tsai has vowed to retire the island’s six aging reactors and has said that she would seek to mothball a problem-plagued nuclear plant that has been under construction since the late 1990s. The plant, whose price tag has nearly doubled to $9.3 billion, was supposed to begin operating this year, but further delays appear likely.

“After Fukushima, our society has realized that nuclear power is not only expensive but also unsafe,” Ms. Tsai said recently, referring to the nuclear disaster in Japan last March that contaminated a large area around the Fukushima Daiichi plant.

The repercussions from Fukushima have been pronounced in Europe, where the governments of Germany, Switzerland and Belgium have promised to abandon nuclear power in the coming decades. However, countries across Asia continue to embrace it. China has 28 plants under construction, and India is building seven reactors and has plans for 20 more. And despite its proximity to Japan, South Korea, with 21 active nuclear reactors, is moving forward on 18 more. Vietnam, Indonesia and Thailand are all actively seeking to join the nuclear-power club.

But Taiwan — an island devoid of oil, gas and coal reserves — appears to be losing its appetite for the atom. Last spring thousands of protesters in Taipei demanded an end to the construction of the latest plant, the Lungmen nuclear project, or Nuke 4. Soon afterward, one of Taiwan’s richest tycoons joined the antinuclear chorus: Chang Yung-fa, chairman of the Evergreen Group, one of the world’s largest shippers.

Opponents say that there are a number of active seismic faults across the island and that more than five million people in northern Taiwan live within an 18-mile radius of two nuclear plants. For the 23 million people living on an island the size of Maryland and Delaware combined, there would be few places to run in the event of a disaster.

“Taiwan is simply ill suited for nuclear energy,” said Tsui Shu-hsin, secretary general of the Green Citizens’ Action Alliance, which has been waging a lonely battle against atomic power.

Through the years Mr. Ma’s party successfully beat back efforts to kill the Lungmen project, but he has lately softened his stance. Adopting Ms. Tsai’s talk of a “nuclear-free homeland” at a news conference in November, Mr. Ma eased away from a government proposal to extend the life of the existing plants, which were built in the 1970s when Taiwan was led by the Kuomintang under martial law. He also insisted that Nuke 4 would become operational only if it met much stricter safety guidelines.

Environmentalists have been heartened by such pronouncements. “Before, no one was interested in talking about the problems of nuclear power, but now it feels like history and politics are on our side,” said Gloria Hsu, a professor of atmospheric sciences at National Taiwan University and a former chairwoman of the Taiwan Environmental Protection Union.

Proponents of nuclear energy say all the talk of a nuclear-free Taiwan neglects one important detail: how to replace the power generated by the reactors. Taiwan produces about 1 percent of its energy supplies and relies on a mix of imports: oil from the Middle East, coal from China and Australia and natural gas from Indonesia and Malaysia.

Ms. Tsai speaks of increased conservation and of shifting the Taiwanese economy away from power-hungry manufacturing. Part of her “2025 Nuclear-Free Homeland Initiative” also calls for the construction of gas-fired turbines and an expanded reliance on solar and wind power.

But Wey Kwo-dong, an economics professor at National Taipei University, said none of those options could quickly replace the loss of nuclear power. “Taiwan has to import 98 percent of its energy needs, so I’m not sure where people expect to get their electricity from,” he said. “The issue has become so political, no one is considering the impact on Taiwan’s economy.”

Mia Li contributed research.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/13/world/asia/nuclear-power-emerges-as-election-issue-in-taiwan.html?partner=rss&emc=rss