September is considered a critical month for retailers because back-to-school shopping can indicate how consumers feel about the future.
Some of the sales increases, though, seemed to be the result of heavy promotions.
“One of the questions as we go into holidays, frankly, is where margins end up,” said Chris Donnelly, an executive in the retail practice at Accenture, a consulting company. “I think you’re going to see more aggressive discounting to make sure they capture as much of the holiday sales as they can. And you’ve seen it in some of the folks that reported today, where they said sales have gone up but margin and average selling prices have gone down a little bit.”
Generally, stores that go after higher-end shoppers fared better than those focusing on middle- and low-end customers.
The top performers among department stores was Nordstrom, where same-store sales rose 10.7 percent, beating estimates by more than 5 percentage points. Shoppers seemed drawn to luxury purchases; Nordstrom said its top categories for the month were designer clothing, dresses and handbags.
Saks Fifth Avenue’s sales increased 9.3 percent, and there, too, people were drawn to nonessential items. Shoes, purses, jewelry and cosmetics were among its top sellers.
Macy’s, Kohl’s and Dillard’s came in a bit lower than the more plush department stores, at 4.9 percent, 4.1 percent and 3 percent respectively.
J. C. Penney had one of the few negative September results, with same-store sales down 0.6 percent. Analysts had expected growth of 0.6 percent. The company said Internet sales also dropped for the month because people were buying fewer expensive home-furnishing items.
J. C. Penney revised its profit outlook for the third quarter on Wednesday because of lower-than-expected sales. It said it now expected profit to be 10 to 15 cents a share, excluding one-time charges, versus the 15 to 20 cents a share it had previously projected.
The best performance over all was turned in by Costco which, despite being a club store, caters to a well-off shopper. Costco’s same-store sales rose 12 percent, and its American sales, excluding gasoline, rose 7 percent.
Other than Costco and Nordstrom, the rest of the top five performers included Limited Brands, up 11 percent, and the Buckle and Zumiez, stores for teenagers, which were up 10.3 and 10.1 percent, respectively.
At the bottom of the 23 stores surveyed by Thomson Reuters, Gap’s chains — Banana Republic, Gap and Old Navy — had a combined 4 percent drop in same-store sales, though analysts had expected about that. The smaller retailers Bon-Ton, Cato, Stein Mart and Stage Stores also reported among the worst results.
Over all, according to MasterCard Advisors SpendingPulse, which tracks all forms of consumer spending, 2011 was the best back-to-school spending season since 2006. SpendingPulse compared spending in July, August and September in school-related categories, like children’s apparel and office supply stores, with earlier years,
“It’s a positive surprise that the American consumer is maintaining some degree of resilience here,” said Michael McNamara, vice president for research and analysis for SpendingPulse.
But Mr. Donnelly of Accenture warned that could soon change.
“There is a limit to how much consumers are going to be able to spend, because folks aren’t making any more — we just saw a couple of weeks ago wages are very low, real wages aren’t growing, employment’s not moving anywhere, the stock market’s got a lot of volatility — so it’s unclear how sustained this uptick in spending will last,” Mr. Donnelly said.
“As much as the consumer can surprise you on the positive side, like they did the last couple of months, they can also catch you on the negative side,” Mr. Donnelly said.
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