December 21, 2024

Euro Watch: Euro Zone Unemployment Rose to Another Record in January

That, along with new data showing a decline in inflation in the euro zone, could prompt the European Central Bank to take steps to stimulate the economy when its governing council meets on Thursday, analysts said.

Unemployment in the 17-nation euro zone climbed to 11.9 percent in January from 11.8 percent the previous month, according to Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.

For the 27 nations of the European Union, the jobless rate was 10.8 percent, up from 10.7 percent in December. All of the figures were seasonally adjusted.

A separate Eurostat report showed price pressures easing in February. In the euro zone, the annual inflation rate was 1.8 percent, down from 2 percent in January and below the central bank’s 2 percent target.

The jobless data suggests “that wage growth is set to weaken from already low rates” and further depress consumer spending, which has already been hurt by government austerity measures, wrote Jennifer McKeown, an economist at Capital Economics in London, in a research note.

Ms. McKeown said that the low inflation and high joblessness “should leave the E.C.B.’s policy options open,” and that the central bank “might discuss an interest-rate cut or other unconventional policies.”

There was some bright news on Friday. A survey of European purchasing managers by Markit, a data and research firm, showed that German manufacturing output grew for a second consecutive month in February as new business levels improved.

The composite German purchasing managers’ index rose to 50.3 — just above 50, the level that separates growth from contraction — from 49.8 in January. And the Federal Statistical Office in Wiesbaden reported that German retail sales rose 3.1 percent in January from December, when sales fell 2.1 percent.

Another bit of data this week also supports the view that the German economy will recover from a fourth-quarter slump. The European Commission’s economic sentiment indicator for the euro zone rose to 91.1 in February from 89.5 in January, with German confidence leading the gain.

“German industry is clearly rebounding and taking advantage from better external traction,” wrote Gilles Moëc, an economist at Deutsche Bank in London.

Employment is sometimes seen as a lagging indicator of economic growth because companies try to avoid adding to their costs until they are convinced that a rebound is at hand.

But despite the glimmers of hope in German industry, there are few reasons to regard a recovery as imminent. Markit’s overall euro zone purchasing managers’ index was unchanged in February at 47.9, indicating continued contraction.

Olli Rehn, the European commissioner for economic and monetary affairs, forecast on Feb. 22 that the euro zone economy would shrink 0.3 percent this year, about the same as last year. The bloc’s debt problems, and the tax increases and government spending cuts that have been prescribed as the remedy, have sapped spending power, reducing business demand for labor.

In absolute terms, Eurostat estimated that 19 million people in the euro zone and more than 26 million in the European Union were unemployed in January.

Spain’s unemployment rate was 26.2 percent, and Portugal’s was 17.6 percent. Austria had the lowest rate, at 4.9 percent, followed by Germany and Luxembourg, at 5.3 percent each.

Greece’s unemployment rate in November, the latest month for which Eurostat has figures for the country, was 27 percent.

France, which has the second-largest euro zone economy, after Germany’s, had a 10.6 percent jobless rate in January. Britain, which is not a euro member, had a 7.7 percent rate in November.

That compares with unemployment rates of 7.9 percent in the United States in January and 4.2 percent in Japan in December.

This article has been revised to reflect the following correction:

Correction: March 1, 2013

An earlier version of this article carried a headline that misstated the month of the data. The report was for January, not February. An earlier version of the article also misstated the name of a federal agency in Wiesbaden, Germany. It is the Federal Statistical Office, not the Federal Statistics Office.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/02/business/global/euro-zone-unemployment-rose-to-new-record-in-january-as-inflation-eased.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Euro Watch: Euro Zone Unemployment Rose to New Record in February

PARIS — The unemployment rate in the euro zone edged up in January to a new record, official data showed Friday, as the ailing European economy continued to weigh on the job market.

Unemployment in the 17-nation euro zone stood at 11.9 percent in January, up from 11.8 percent in December, and from 10.8 percent in January 2012, Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, reported from Luxembourg.

For the 27 nations of the European Union, the January jobless rate stood at 10.8 percent, up from 10.7 percent in December. All of the figures were seasonally adjusted.

A separate Eurostat report showed price pressures easing in February. In the euro zone, the annual inflation rate came in at 1.8 percent, down from 2.0 percent in January, and below the European Central Bank’s 2 percent target.

The jobless data “suggest that wage growth is set to weaken from already low rates” and further depress consumer spending, which has already been damped by government austerity measures, Jennifer McKeown, an economist at Capital Economics in London, wrote in a research note.

Ms. McKeown noted that the low inflation numbers and high joblessness “should leave the E.C.B.’s policy options open,” and she said it was possible the central bank “might discuss an interest rate cut or other unconventional policies” when its governing council meets on Thursday.

There was a small bit of bright news Friday. A survey of European purchasing managers by Markit, a data and research firm, showed German manufacturing output growing in February for second straight month, as new business levels improved. The composite German purchasing managers’ index improved to 50.3 in February — just above the level that signals growth — from 49.8 in January.

“German industry is clearly rebounding and taking advantage from better external traction,” Gilles Moëc, an economist at Deutsche Bank in London, wrote.

Employment is sometimes seen as a lagging indicator of economic growth, since companies try to avoid adding to their costs until they are convinced that a rebound is at hand. Despite the green sprouts in German industry, there are few signs that recovery is certain. Markit’s overall euro zone purchasing managers’ index was unchanged in February, at 47.9, a level that signals continued contraction.

European unemployment bottomed in early 2008, just as the financial crisis was getting in motion, and has been on a rising trend ever since. The January numbers were the highest since the creation of the euro.

In absolute terms, Eurostat estimated Friday, 19 million people in the euro zone and more than 26 million people in the overall European Union. were unemployed.

Spain’s unemployment rate in January was 26.2 percent, and Portugal’s was 17.6 percent. Austria, at just 4.9 percent, had the lowest rate, followed by Germany and Luxembourg, both of which stood at 5.3 percent.

Greece’s unemployment rate in November, the latest month for which Eurostat has figures for the country, was 27 percent.

France, the second-largest euro-zone economy after Germany, had a 10.6 percent jobless rate in January. In Britain, not a euro member, the jobless rate stood at 7.7 percent.

Those numbers compare with the United States, where the January unemployment rate stood at 7.9 percent. In Japan, 4.2 percent of the work force was counted as unemployed in December.

This article has been revised to reflect the following correction:

Correction: March 1, 2013

An earlier version of this article carried a headline that misstated the month of the data. The report was for January, not February.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/02/business/global/euro-zone-unemployment-rose-to-new-record-in-february-as-inflation-eased.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Strategies: Goldman’s Beige Book Shows an Uncertain Business Outlook

In recent years, the document has been an appropriately gloomy chronicle of economic distress, but it is enlivened by choice anecdotes. The current version, published in October, for example, says that in the Fed’s Cleveland, New York, Philadelphia and Dallas districts, demand for used cars has created shortages, while in the Minneapolis and Chicago regions, shoppers have been “trading down to value products at grocery stores.” Wages have been stagnant over all, but in Atlanta and San Francisco, there are bidding wars for information technology specialists, and in Cleveland, pay is rising for truck drivers.

If only because it moves the markets, the Fed’s beige book is worth perusing. But as I discovered last week, another beige book produced by a formidable organization — Goldman Sachs — is more useful in assessing the outlook of corporate America.

This second version, called the “United States S. P. 500 Beige Book,” is compiled quarterly by Goldman for clients, not the general public. Unlike the Fed’s summary, which relies on a variety of sources, the Goldman version emphasizes a series of pithy statements made by senior executives during earnings conference calls, and the current selection makes for disturbing reading.

Corporate America continues to churn out impressive profits. But the report shows that economic uncertainty — much of it generated in European capitals and in Congress — is impeding spending and investing. This helps explain why Goldman is projecting relatively little growth for the economy or the stock market through 2012.

Consider this statement from Stacy J. Smith, chief financial officer of Intel: “While business levels remain strong, the uncertainty around 2012 G.D.P. growth rates has caused us to slow hiring for the rest of this year.”

Or this one by Jim Skinner, the chief executive of McDonald’s: “The economists say we’re officially out of the recession, but it hardly feels that way,” he said, adding, “Consumers everywhere continue to be cautious and hesitant to spend.”

Or this one, by Salvatore Iannuzzi, C.E.O. of Monster Worldwide: “We are not giving guidance, certainly at this point, with regard to 2012 for the simple fact it’s just too difficult to predict. We do not have a basis at this point. Faced with this heightened lack of confidence, firms around the world are scaling back their hiring plans and more carefully controlling their spending.”

Taken individually, such comments may seem idiosyncratic. Displayed together, a pattern emerges. The Goldman beige book is “a grand mosaic” assembled from executives’ comments about prospects for their enterprises and for the larger economy, says David J. Kostin, Goldman’s chief United States investment strategist, who heads the team that creates the report. “This is not my voice,” he says. “It’s what seasoned business executives are saying.”

Three striking themes arise from the latest round of earnings calls. First, he says, is the unusually high degree of uncertainty. “A lot of it is coming from the crisis in Europe and from the budget impasse in the United States and from all of the unresolved macroeconomic problems out there,” he says.

What is the effect? “The uncertainty is what is driving the decisions of corporate America not to pursue certain business opportunities, to maintain flexibility on the balance sheet in case there are more problems ahead.”

For example, Laurence D. Fink, C.E.O. of BlackRock, says: “Politics and government are playing a major role in market performance and market volatility.” He adds: “This is a confidence crisis, not a liquidity crisis. There’s trillions and trillions of dollars sitting on the sideline.”

In a similar vein, David Simon, the chief executive of the Simon Property Group, says, “The biggest caveat that we have is all about the macro. Where is the economy? Where is consumer confidence? The election year throws a whole set of psychological issues at the consumer, none of which are positive.”

Mr. Kostin says that executives and investors are “obsessed” with the question that is a second theme of the report: In a weak economy and with rising commodity costs, can companies maintain their profit margins? An affirmative answer is needed to sustain the healthy earnings that have propped up prices in the stock market — but there is no real clarity across corporate America.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=8b94df83fc0bfcdf0d93abb68927811e