May 3, 2024

Portugal Agrees to a $116 Billion Bailout

Mr. Sócrates said in a televised broadcast on Tuesday night that the creditors had agreed to give Portugal more time to cut its budget deficit than initially foreseen by his government. He described the outcome of the negotiations as “a good deal that defends Portugal.”

Still, he provided few details about the agreement, which will still require endorsement from opposition parties. Mr. Sócrates resigned in March after the Parliament refused to endorse additional austerity measures. To break the political deadlock, Portugal is set to hold another general election on June 5.

The political standoff was followed by Portugal’s bailout request in early April after the government also failed to meet its 2010 deficit target and after investors sent its borrowing costs to record highs, heightening concerns about its ability to meet forthcoming refinancing obligations.

Officials from the International Monetary Fund, the European Commission and the European Central Bank then arrived in Lisbon to discuss an aid program that would allow Portugal to receive European Union-led rescue money by June, the month when it faces its toughest refinancing hurdles of this year.

Simonetta Nardin, a spokeswoman for the I.M.F., confirmed that officials representing the international creditors had reached agreement with the Portuguese government “on a comprehensive economic program that could be supported by the E.C., the E.C.B. and the I.M.F.” She added: “We have said from the beginning that it is important that any program should have broad cross-party support and we will continue our engagement with the opposition parties to establish that this is the case.”

The deal will still require approval by the European Union. The European Commission, the executive of the 27-nation union, is hoping to get the measures ready for Europe’s finance ministers to discuss at a meeting on May 16.

However, even if the deal is blessed by the Portuguese opposition, other obstacles remain, most notably in Finland, where a party critical of euro zone bailouts won 19 percent of the vote in an election last month. It has said that it cannot support a Portuguese bailout and it remains unclear when a new Finnish government will be in place.

On Tuesday evening, meanwhile, Mr. Sócrates said he would present the deal to opposition parties and called on them to show “a sense of responsibility and a superior sense of national interest” to ensure Portugal receives emergency financing swiftly.

Mr. Sócrates said that, under the three-year plan, the deficit would need to be lowered to 5.9 percent of gross domestic product this year, 4.5 percent in 2012 and 3 percent in 2013. Last year, his government vowed to stick to a tougher schedule to lower the gap to 4.6 percent this year, 3 percent in 2012 and 2 percent in 2013.

He suggested that creditors had recognized that Portugal faced a less critical situation than other ailing euro economies. “Knowing other external aid programs, Portugal can feel reassured,” he said. Last year, Greece secured a bailout package worth 110 billion euros and Ireland 85 billion euros.

As examples of the relatively lenient terms granted to Portugal, he said the three-year program did not involve more cuts in public sector wages or in the minimum wage, or additional layoffs of state employees.

When the government requested a bailout early last month, Pedro Passos Coelho, the leader of the main Social Democratic opposition party, said that he backed the decision to seek outside help. However, in the run-up to next month’s general election, center-right opposition parties, who are leading in opinion polls, are unlikely to want Mr. Sócrates to reap the political benefit for negotiating a bailout that they blame his government for in the first place.

Stephen Castle contributed reporting.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/04/business/global/04portugal.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Economix: Podcast: Credit Ratings, Ponzi Schemes and Data

Despite an ever-growing mountain of debt, the United States government has an impeccable credit rating. But this week Standard Poor’s warned that the Treasury’s triple-A status is in jeopardy.

While it reaffirmed the Treasury’s sterling rating for the short term, S..P. said that there was a one-in-three chance of a downgrade over the next few years. In ratcheting its outlook downward, the agency cited concerns about the ability of Congress and the White House to agree on a plan to reduce the budget deficit. All of this threw the equity markets into turmoil for a day, before stocks moved upward again. The bond market was barely affected by the credit warning.

But why? In a conversation in the Weekend Business podcast, Floyd Norris, the chief financial correspondent for The Times, says part of the reason is that S..P. itself has less than a stellar reputation after failing to warn of the problems looming in the financial crisis of 2007 and 2008. And this current warning, he says, has been shrugged off by the markets to some extent. It’s also possible that by focusing on the fiscal deficit — and by putting some pressure on the politicians in Washington — S..P. may have made it more likely that the deficit will come down. Furthermore, despite signs of a slowing American economy, corporate earnings have been very strong in the United States and abroad, bolstering the markets.

The financial crisis upset the plans of many financiers, including Bernie Madoff, whose Ponzi scheme came to an end as unwitting participants called in their chits on investments that didn’t actually exist. Diana Henriques has been covering the Madoff case since it came to light, and she’s written about it in a new book, “The Wizard of Lies: Bernie Madoff and the Death of Trust,” portions of which are adapted for a Sunday Business article. In a podcast discussion with David Gillen, Ms. Henriques paints a vivid picture of Mr. Madoff’s last days as the engineer of one of the biggest frauds in history.

In another podcast conversation, Steve Lohr, a veteran Times reporter, sees some indications that a long-awaited data-driven surge in productivity may finally be at hand. In the Unboxed column in Sunday Business, he cites research led by Erik Brynjolfsson, an M.I.T. economist, showing that companies making heavy use of data in their decision-making have improved productivity more rapidly than other businesses.

Historically, as innovations percolate through the economy, there has always been a lag in bolstering overall economic productivity. The United States economy may at last be benefiting from the Internet revolution, but Robert Gordon, an economist at Northwestern University, suggests that we may be digesting those benefits so rapidly that they will be short-lived.

How to make the best use of the data that companies collect on individuals is the concern of Richard Thaler, an economist at the University of Chicago. In a separate podcast conversation and in the Economic View column in Sunday Business, he says that such personal data needs not only to be protected, but also to be made available to individuals for their own benefit.

If, for example, you could relay information about your cellphone use to a third-part Web site, you could find help in choosing the cheapest phone plan for your needs, Mr. Thaler says.

In the news section of the podcast, I discuss a major fraud conviction, a National Labor Relations Board complaint against Boeing, and the impact of the disasters in Japan on that nation’s auto companies.

You can find specific segments of the program at these junctures: Floyd Norris on the U.S. credit rating (32:24); news headlines (25:17); Diana Henriques on Bernie Madoff (22:02); Steve Lohr on data-driven productivity (14:12); Richard Thaler on data for personal use (8:42); the week ahead (2:20).

As articles discussed in the podcast are published during the weekend, links will be added to this posting.

You can download the program by subscribing from the New York Times podcast page or directly from iTunes.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=78a64b93a8e7934a44f034aa71005e86

Expectations Grow for Greek Debt Restructuring

Nevertheless, the notion keeps popping up that Greece, and perhaps even other weak European Union countries like Ireland and Portugal, will be forced to restructure.

Almost a year after it was saved from default by a bailout of 110 billion euros, or about $157 billion, from its European partners and the I.M.F., the Greek economy continues to sag under 340 billion euros in debt. Greece’s budget deficit is expected to be 8.4 percent of gross domestic product this year, compared with a mandated target of 7.5 percent.

The bond markets have taken note as economists, as well as German politicians, have emphasized a restructuring solution that will require bond investors and banks to take a loss on their debt holdings. On Monday, the yield on 10-year Greek bonds hit a high of 14.3 percent. Yields on Spanish and Portuguese debt also shot up as electoral gains made by an anti-euro party in Finland fed concern that a possible 80 billion-euro plan to rescue Portugal — which requires unanimous assent by European Union countries — might be jeopardized.

All of which reflects an emerging view, although it has not yet been officially stated, that it makes little economic sense for the monetary fund and the European Union to keep lending money to Greece so that the government can pay back private investors at double-digit interest rates — especially as Greek citizens suffer the effects of a severe austerity program.

“Behind the curtains, they are looking for a smooth restructuring,” said Theodore Pelagidis, an economist in Athens and the author of recent book on the Greek economy’s collapse. “The basic reality is that we cannot service our debt, and if Greece does not see a radical solution, it will consume itself.”

Proponents of restructuring say banks have had more than a year to prepare by either selling positions at a loss or raising capital. The markets, proponents argue, have already factored in a restructuring, so why wait until 2013 for investors to take their first losses, as proposed by European leaders in the structure of the future bailout funds?

Until recently, France and Germany — and especially the European Central Bank — have been adamantly opposed to any restructuring that would require investors to take “a haircut,” or reduced returns, because of the effect this might have on French, German and Greek banks.

Lately, however, there have been signs that once-closed minds are opening up to alternative solutions.

The German finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, raised the possibility of a Greek restructuring last week in comments to a German newspaper. He also alluded to a coming European Union study on the sustainability of Greek debt that would guide Europe’s conduct on the issue.

It is not clear what the conclusion of the report, expected to be published in June, will be. One option that has attracted some attention, though, is a plan that would ask bondholders to trade in their current paper for debt with lower rates and longer maturities.

Such a proposal, which was successfully used by Uruguay in 2003, would, in theory, minimize banking losses and extend debt payments further into the future, easing Greece’s financing burden in the near term.

“It’s being talked about more, and the official sector should want to do this,” said Lee C. Buchheit, a lawyer for Cleary Gottlieb Steen Hamilton, who has worked on debt restructuring deals dating to the 1980s. In Greece’s case, however, “the worry is that it may not go far enough. This is a country where debt is 150 percent of G.D.P.”

Mr. Buchheit, who recently co-wrote a paper on possible variations for Greece’s debt crisis, says an approach like this would be similar to a solution reached on Latin American debt in the 1980s in that it would give creditors and debtors more time to prepare themselves for an eventual restructuring.

But before banks accepted such a deal, they would require extra cash, which in today’s political environment might be difficult to come by.

They will also need to be persuaded to, in effect, increase their exposure to Greece when the country’s efforts at reviving its economy seem to be stumbling amid continued difficulties in raising the revenue it needs to reduce its deficit.

As the country where the debt crisis began, Greece remains the focal point of investors’ concerns. The tax increases and spending cuts being imposed by the Greek government as part of its rescue package have deepened a pervasive gloom in Athens. Some economists now forecast that Greek growth will plunge 2 to 3 percent in 2012 after an expected 4 percent retraction this year.

Such a double dip would likely drive unemployment, already around 14 percent, to Spanish levels of around 20 percent and further complicate the Greek government’s task of persuading its citizens to sacrifice more.

With 25 billion euros that Greece must raise from the public markets in 2012, the pressure is building on Athens to find a solution that somehow shares the pain more equally.

“Greece is a symbol of the crisis,” said Mr. Pelagidis, the economist. “We don’t need another bailout — we need creditors to take a hit.”

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=2d56656d77030ea1edf3473a2510feae