November 22, 2024

Opinion: The Dangerous Notion That Debt Doesn’t Matter

Debt doesn’t matter? Really? That’s the most irresponsible fiscal notion since the tax-cutting mania brought on by the advent of supply-side economics. And it’s particularly problematic right now, as Congress resumes debating whether to extend the payroll-tax reduction or enact other stimulative measures.

Here’s the theory, in its most extreme configuration: To the extent that the government sells its debt to Americans (as opposed to foreigners), those obligations will disappear as aging folks who buy those Treasuries die off.

If that doesn’t seem to make much sense, don’t be puzzled — it doesn’t. Government borrowing is still debt that must eventually be paid off, just as we were taught in introductory economics.

Failing to repay the debt would mean not only the ugliness of default but also depriving the next generation of whatever savings their parents parked in government bonds.

And remember that just a small fraction of Treasuries are owned by individual Americans. Institutions and many foreign entities own the rest and are not about to give up claims that they are owed.

The more realistic alternative of continuing to service that debt offers the unattractive eventual prospect of either higher taxes or sharp cutbacks in government programs, or both.

That problem is greatly compounded by the fact that the $10 trillion of debt that is held by investors represents only a fraction of the federal government’s obligations and ignores an additional $46 trillion of commitments to Social Security and Medicare.

Of course every modern economy both tolerates and benefits from some amount of debt. But the United States has been on a binge, brought on by a toxic mix of spending increases and tax cuts that began with the Reagan tax cuts in the 1980s and were later turbocharged by those of President George W. Bush.

The figures are stark. In 1975, government debt per household was roughly equal to half of a typical household’s annual income. Today, it’s 1.7 times. Add entitlements, and the obligations would take a mind-boggling nine years of family income to pay off.

Even deficit hawks like me recognize that with the economy still barely above stall speed, now is hardly the moment for the government to slam on the fiscal brakes, debt or no debt.

So that means there’s no realistic alternative to more debt. But we can reduce the adverse consequences by how we spend this borrowed money. There are two main forms of stimulus: one kind is channeled through tax cuts and then mostly spent, just like a strapped family that puts its monthly expenses onto a credit card. Alternatively, government can direct its resources toward long-term investments that earn a return; think roads and dams but also medical research and education.

At the moment, gridlock grips Washington, and about all that Congress has offered is a two-month cut in the payroll tax, which may help shake the economy out of the doldrums but provides little lasting benefit.

We could just as effectively throw borrowed hundred-dollar bills out of airplanes. About the only worse approach would be nothing at all.

Government’s focus should shift toward investment. To do so, multiple challenges must be overcome.

First, unlike every company in America, the government doesn’t keep its books in a way that highlights these important two categories, investment and consumption. As a result, Congress can’t evaluate the long-term impact of its actions.

Second, the dark shadow of the Tea Party movement has made added spending — the route for most new government investment — taboo.

While public investment may take longer to unleash its positive forces, the case for it is compelling, in part because rising entitlement expenditures have crowded out government’s investment activities.

In the early 1950s, government devoted about 1.2 percent of gross domestic product to infrastructure; by 2010, that amount had fallen to just 0.2 percent. Meanwhile, federal spending on research and development dropped from a high of nearly 2 percent in 1964 to 0.9 percent in 2009.

By contrast, Franklin D. Roosevelt’s much-praised Works Progress Administration spent the equivalent of at least $1.5 trillion over eight years on projects that in New York City alone ranged from building La Guardia Airport to reroofing the New York Public Library to creating a lasting body of literary and artistic work.

I agree that short-term help for the economy combined with long-term deficit reduction is the right direction for budgetary policy.

But we also need to make every dollar of debt matter, and therefore we should be directing our efforts to lifting the economy toward programs that provide long-term benefit, not just a short-term burst of caffeinated energy.

A contributing opinion writer for The New York Times and a longtime Wall Street executive who was a counselor to the Treasury secretary.

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Your Money: Consumer Watchdog Is All Ears for Ideas

The new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau officially opens for business on Thursday, but for several months it has been soliciting ideas from the public.

In response, there was the predictable sniping, with some people taking to Twitter to ask if the bureau can protect people from the increasing federal debt caused by the creation of new agencies.

And there were the plaintive requests from people looking for help far beyond the bureau’s turf in financial services. Someone wondered about gym memberships, while somebody else asked the bureau to give pornography sites their own domain name suffixes.

But in the earliest Twitter posts, which I read end to end in a 140-character binge this week, there were also some thought-provoking ideas with real potential.

They may never come to fruition, if the Republicans succeed in stripping power from the bureau and running Elizabeth Warren — who has been overseeing the bureau but is probably not going to be its official director — out of town.

For now, however, the bureau is for real, and in an avalanche of Twitter messages, e-mails and blog comments on its Web site, consumers have shown a hunger for a financial cop on the beat.

Meanwhile, its openness thus far suggests the tantalizing possibility that it could be the nation’s first open-source regulator. So I picked the four most interesting ideas that people on Twitter suggested and took them to the bureau this week to see just how open it was to provocative suggestions.

SIMPLICITY Perhaps the most reasoned call to action came from Bill Mitchell (Twitter handle: @zipflash), an investment newsletter publisher and soon-to-be hedge fund manager in Irvine, Calif.

“My politics don’t really align with Elizabeth Warren’s,” he said. “But I sensed that she had a legitimate interest in trying to, at a minimum, improve efficiencies.”

So he took his best shot at helping her do that in a couple of Twitter messages. “Create standardized contract for credit cards for issuers to incorporate by reference, merely adjusting specific rates and fees.”

And then: “Limit the total number of words in consumer financial contracts. Disclosures are not transparent if their length is unlimited.”

Mr. Mitchell said he worried that credit card agreements had become like the software and Web agreements that so many people mindlessly speed through.

“We are actively working toward simplifying credit card contracts,” said Gail Hillebrand, associate director of consumer education and engagement for the bureau.

At the moment, the bureau is in the midst of an overhaul of mortgage disclosure forms, something Congress demanded. Congress hasn’t ordered the bureau to revise card agreements, though, and it is not clear how much authority the bureau would have to force card issuers’ hands if it decided to try.

Still, it’s clear that Ms. Warren is a believer in the religion of simplicity. “We are opposed to complicated forms and fine print,” she said Thursday in a hearing before the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform.

HUMOR Matt Stoller (@matthewstolller), a former Democratic Congressional staff member, just wants a good laugh. “Hold a weekly public complaint essay contest called ‘Why You Should Fine My Bank,’ ” he said in a Twitter post.

In all seriousness, this would have its advantages once the bureau’s novelty wears out, since it would keep consumers coming back looking for the most outrageous sins. Mr. Stoller, in an interview this week, added that the bureau should have a bank-as-hero letter of the week, too, as an incentive for good behavior.

“I think humor and interestingness are not used by government nearly enough,” he said. “To the extent that you do that, you create a situation where if you get a malevolent politician in there trying to kill these programs, then they have to kill something that the public likes.”

The bureau’s Ms. Hillebrand wouldn’t go near the self-preservation angle but got a good chuckle out of Mr. Stoller’s contest notion. “We have to learn from the most effective techniques that people inside and outside of government are using to reach the public,” she said. “If it’s funny, it gets forwarded.”

twitter.com/ronlieber

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