November 22, 2024

With Europe in Crisis, Fragile Time for I.M.F.

Sinking under a mountain of debt, Greece is on the verge of requesting more help from the European Union and the international fund. Ireland’s economic recovery from its banking crisis remains a distant prospect at best. And once an international aid deal is concluded for Portugal, the question shifts to whether Spain’s much larger and increasingly stagnant economy may need a financial lifeline.

Indeed, the most bitter twist for Dominique Strauss-Kahn is that his personal crisis comes at a time that the I.M.F.’s influence globally is at a many-decades peak, especially within Europe, his own stomping ground.

During his tenure as managing director of the fund, Mr. Strauss-Kahn is widely credited with expanding the fund’s resources after the financial crisis, improving its governance and essentially restoring its relevance by replacing orthodoxy with pragmatism.

Before being taken into custody in New York on Saturday afternoon on charges related to sexual assault, Mr. Strauss-Kahn had boarded a flight to Europe to meet the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, to discuss in detail how Europe and the I.M.F. would respond to the deteriorating economic situation in Greece.

Mr. Strauss-Kahn was known to be a powerful voice arguing that continuing austerity measures in Greece would only make the situation worse. The Greek economy has shrunk by as much as 4 percent this year from a year ago, after the international community laid out guidelines for reducing its debt, raising taxes and reining in spending.

Mr. Strauss-Kahn’s view contrasts with a harder line in northern Europe, where voters are opposed to another bailout package for Greece. Northern politicians, as a result, have pushed to exact a higher price from Greece if more money were extended.

“The Greek government is concerned that a headless I.M.F. translates into a diminished bargaining power for the Greek side,” said Yanis Varoufakis, an economics professor and blogger at the University of Athens. “Despite the official unity between the I.M.F. and the E.U. on the Greek crisis, Dominique Strauss-Kahn has consistently showed greater sympathy for the plight of George Papandreou and a better grasp than the E.U. of the importance of not putting more pressure on Greece than the country can bear.”

Trailing after Hungary, Latvia and Iceland, Greece was one of the first euro zone countries to seek outside financial aid after the worldwide financial crisis. It proved to be a grand stage on which Mr. Strauss-Kahn would prove that the fund, after more than a decade of not doing much, could reinvent itself as a powerful global actor.

Former I.M.F. employees described Mr. Strauss-Kahn as a micromanager on European matters, especially on the three European bailouts that he oversaw — Ireland, Greece and Portugal.

Greek newspapers have reported recently that for many months before the Greek bailout last May, Prime Minister George Papandreou sought the counsel of Mr. Strauss-Kahn.

Mr. Strauss-Kahn, a French economist who was often cited for his deft political touch, also worked closely with Europe’s top leaders on the rescue plans, leveraging his relationships with leaders like Jean-Claude Trichet at the European Central Bank and France’s president, Nicolas Sarkozy — despite their political differences.

In restoring stature to the I.M.F., Mr. Strauss-Kahn managed to push his personal missteps into the background, including a 2008 affair with a co-worker at the fund, after which he acknowledged he had shown bad judgment. His success also allowed people to look past some inherent contradictions: a French socialist dedicated to solving global economic problems even as he favored the high life of elegant homes in Paris and Washington, fancy cars and lavish hotel rooms.

Simon Johnson, the former chief economist of the I.M.F., who is now a professor at M.I.T., said Mr. Strauss-Kahn had been revived by the global financial crisis. “The Europeans had been late in waking up to the economic problems,” he said. “But he coaxed rather than bullied them into action. In so doing, he used the crisis as an opportunity to rehabilitate the I.M.F.’s reputation, and put it front and center in a way that it had not been before.”

Indeed, finding someone with the kind of boardroom muscle in Europe that Mr. Strauss-Kahn displayed will be challenging.

Graham Bowley and Dan Bilefsky contributed reporting from New York.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/16/business/16fund.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

With Silver Soaring, Attics Give Up Small Fortunes

As investors send prices soaring for not only gold, but now also silver, consumers have been unearthing ancient stashes of silverware, teapots and jewelry from long-discarded beaus, and trading them in at pawn shops or selling them on eBay for cash. More and more cash, in fact, as weeks go by.

“We’re seeing an increase of people coming in from all walks of life because they hear the news — gold prices are at record highs, silver prices are at record highs, so they’re basically grabbing what they have in their home and coming in to pawn, or sell, the items,” said Yigal Adato, an owner of CashCo Pawn in San Diego.

The sharp increase in prices — on Friday, gold hit a new high, not adjusted for inflation, while silver in April had the largest monthly jump in 28 years — has had an effect across the spectrum of retailers dealing with precious metals. Plain old silver enjoys new cachet among jewelers moving away from gold. And jewelry designers are opting for cheaper alternatives than metals — like emeralds, in one case.

Even the business of marriage enters in. Bands of gold are getting closer in price to the diamonds that sit on them. And Indian weddings, with traditional displays of celebratory gold, may be less gilded this summer.

Gold has been surging for years, and on Friday, it almost hit $1,570 for a troy ounce (a nominal high, not adjusted for inflation). Silver, measured by futures for July delivery, is almost as high as it has been since 1980, at more than $48 an ounce, though that comparison, too, is not adjusted for inflation. So far this year, the price of silver has risen more than 50 percent.

Gold has been slower to increase, with contracts for future delivery rising about 9 percent this year. When gold started its most recent run after the banking crisis in fall 2008, it posted a 25 percent gain for all of 2009.

Pawn shops are benefiting. Three publicly traded pawn shop companies, Cash America, EZCorp and FirstCash Financial, recently reported sharp increases in net income compared with a year earlier. For Cash America, the rise was 14 percent; with 34 percent for EZCorp; and 87 percent for FirstCash. Armloads of metal merchandise brought in by customers helped to drive those results: at FirstCash, domestic revenue from wholesale scrap jewelry rose 45 percent.

Worried about inflation, and wanting the stability of precious metals, investors are buying them in coins, and via vehicles like the iShares Silver Trust, an exchange-traded fund backed by silver.

“Investors who feel they may have missed the boat with gold have jumped into silver because it has a better price point,” said Suki Cooper, a precious-metals analyst for Barclays Capital.

Yet even if investors think $48 an ounce is reasonable, jewelers say the price has turned once-plebian silver into something extravagant.

“I felt you’d never see the day when silver would start to jack up like this,” said Alexis Bittar, who designs jewelry sold at stores like Saks Fifth Avenue and Nordstrom. “It’s always been considered not like a base metal, but fairly close to it.”

He added, “But next to gold, it’s the next precious metal in line, and it makes sterling seem more luxurious.”

Mr. Bittar, whose jewelry typically sells for a few hundred dollars, said he was making shifts to keep prices flat. Brass, for instance, substitutes as a base for silver on items that will be coated with gold, and he is reducing the amount of metal used in some designs.

J. C. Penney, which is also trying to keep prices flat on most items, began using alternative metals when gold prices started rising, and now sells items made with sterling silver, cobalt and Platinaire, a mix of silver and platinum, said Rebecca Winter, a Penney spokeswoman.

Also, she said, the retailer realized that customers did not mind paying higher prices for trendy pieces. In February, Penney introduced Alexandra Gemstones, a line meant to capitalize on the popularity of colorful accessories while avoiding silver and gold.

Michael Bisceglia, the president of the jewelry company Stauer, is also emphasizing gemstones — even rubies, he said, can be had at low prices.

“Emeralds, rubies, sapphires, tanzanite, pearls — those prices haven’t gone up that much, so I’m adding more gemstones to jewelry now, and less silver,” he said.

As for the Indian weddings, some changes are under consideration. Indian weddings typically involve a lot of gold jewelry, said Anu Duggal, a founder and the executive vice president for new business development for Exclusively.In, a site that sells Indian fashion and jewelry and just introduced a weddings section.

“It is very common for not only the bride and groom, but also the family members to purchase new outfits and jewelry for these events,” Ms. Duggal said in an e-mail. She added, “Gold itself is the most common gift given during weddings, and it is customary for the bride to wear pure gold as part of the formal wedding ceremony.”

But as the cost of gold has shot up, brides are altering the tradition, shifting to semi-precious and gold-plated jewelry, Ms. Duggal said. “This is becoming more and more acceptable,” she said.

At CashCo Pawn, the metals rush has brought in lots of silver inventory, like coins, teapots and flatware. “People receive Tiffany silver items,” Mr. Adato said, “and the girlfriend brings it in to sell — they say: ‘You know what? I broke up with this guy. I don’t want to see this anymore.’ ”

In addition, people are still bringing in scrap gold, he added: “gold teeth, a lot of dental work. We get grills once in a while, gold grills.”

Joe Ellis, the owner of Cherokee Coins in Alpharetta, Ga., said he had never seen higher demand for gold and silver bars. Customers want coins like the United States silver eagle, generic silver bars, circulated silver dollars, and dimes and quarters from before 1965, when they were made with 90 percent silver.

Cherokee accepts pawned items, but, Mr. Ellis said, that business had slowed. During the recession, he accepted a steady stream of items like broken bracelet chains and silverware, but now, he said, his customers seemed to have little left in their attics and basements.

“Quite frankly, I think people just have so much they can sell,” he said.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=5ebb81bdc5a6d645ad1582ab269475f7