January 15, 2025

Wall Street Slides After Jobs Figures

The monthly Labor Department report, released Friday, showed there was no job growth in the United States economy in August. In addition, analysts said financial stocks were hurt by the prospect, reported by The New York Times, that a federal agency was set to file lawsuits against more than a dozen big banks over their handling of mortgage securities.

Many investors had sold stocks ahead of the government’s Labor Department report, which analysts in a Bloomberg News survey had forecasted would show a gain of 68,000 nonfarm payrolls. The flat performance t was down sharply from a revised 85,000 new jobs in July. The unemployment rate stayed constant at 9.1 percent in August.

The suits by the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, are aimed at Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank, among others, according to three individuals briefed on the matter.

When the stock market opened, all three major Wall Street indexes slid lower and stayed there. By midday, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 169.34 points, or 1.5 percent. The Standard Poor’s 500-stock index was down 1.7 percent, and the Nasdaq composite index fell 1.6 percent.

The financial sector dragged down the broader market, with the five most actively traded banks in the sector each down about 3 percent or more. Bank of America was about 6 percent lower; Wells Fargo was down nearly 4 percent, and JPMorgan was down more than 3 percent.

“This is not good news from the perspective of the banking sector,” Phil Orlando, chief equity market strategist at Federated Investors, said about the potential for the mortgage-security lawsuits.

The jobs report, too, was “very disappointing. It was much weaker than expected. We were thinking that if today’s jobs number was poor we would start to see a pull-back.”

The markets in the United States followed declines in Asia and Europe.

The Euro Stoxx 50 index plunged 5.5 percent, while the DAX in Germany lost 3.4 percent and the CAC 40 in France fell 3.6 percent. The FTSE in Britain was down by 2.3 percent. In Asia, the Shanghai, the Nikkei and the Hang Seng indexes each closed down by more than 1 percent.

“The latest fall follows a highly volatile August period which saw global markets take substantial hits over political uncertainty over the U.S. debt ceiling and subsequent credit downgrade,” John Douthwaite, chief executive officer of SimplyStockbroking, said in a research note.

In August, all three indexes in the United States had their worst monthly performance since 2001. Shares took a beating for reasons that included fears of an economic slowdown and fiscal problems in the United States as well as continuing concerns over debt issues in Europe.

Mr. Douthwaite said market turbulence was set to continue in September because of weak economic data from the United States and Europe.

The decline in stocks on Friday came just ahead of the start of the three-day Labor Day weekend in the United States. It followed a lackluster day of low trading volume on Thursday, when banks led the market down, ending a four-day rally.

The three major indexes extended their losses from Thursday, when they closed more than 1 percent lower.

The worse-than-expected jobs report led some economists to forecast new policy action by the Federal Reserve at its next meeting on Sept. 20-21.

Economists from Goldman Sachs said that it now was more likely the Fed would lengthen the average maturity of its balance sheet, with sales of relatively short-dated Treasuries and purchases of relatively long-dated Treasuries.

Mr. Orlando said the central bank could also cut the premium on banking reserves to force banks to lend more.

The price of the 10-year Treasury note rose Friday morning, and the yield fell to 2.043 percent from 2.13 percent late Thursday.

Shaila Dewan and Nelson D. Schwartz contributed reporting.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/03/business/daily-stock-market-activity.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Nevada Accuses Bank of America of Breaching Mortgage Accord

In a complaint filed Tuesday in United States District Court in Reno, Catherine Cortez Masto, the Nevada attorney general, asked a judge for permission to end Nevada’s participation in the settlement agreement. This would allow her to sue the bank over what the complaint says were dubious practices uncovered by her office in an investigation that began in 2009.

In her filing, Ms. Masto contends that Bank of America raised interest rates on troubled borrowers when modifying their loans even though the bank had promised in the settlement to lower them. The bank also failed to provide loan modifications to qualified homeowners as required under the deal, improperly proceeded with foreclosures even as borrowers’ modification requests were pending and failed to meet the settlement’s 60-day requirement on granting new loan terms, instead allowing months and in some cases more than a year to go by with no resolution, the filing says.

The complaint says such practices violated the settlement Bank of America reached in the fall of 2008 with several states and later, in 2009, with Nevada, in which the states accused its Countrywide unit of predatory lending. As the credit crisis grew, the settlement was heralded as a victory by state offices eager to help keep troubled borrowers in their homes and reduce their costs. Bank of America set aside $8.4 billion in the deal and agreed to help 400,000 troubled borrowers with loan modifications and other financial relief, such as lowering interest rates on mortgages.

But foreclosure problems mounted in Nevada, where Countrywide originated 262,622 loans, and complaints about the bank’s loan servicing practices began flooding into Ms. Masto’s office shortly after the settlement was struck. She started investigating and found that Bank of America had “materially and almost immediately violated” the terms of the settlement, according to the complaint.

Ms. Masto declined to comment beyond the court filing.

Bank of America did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Ms. Masto’s request to terminate the 2008 deal against Bank of America could raise further questions about the extent of its liabilities arising from Countrywide’s lending practices and from the bank’s own loan servicing activities in the foreclosure crisis. The move by the Nevada attorney general could also imperil the already shaky negotiations over improper foreclosure practices being conducted by state attorneys general and the four largest banks, including Bank of America.

Those talks, which also involve federal officials, have stalled over the summer with disagreements over whether the deal would allow state regulators to bring future lawsuits against the institutions for questionable practices. Attorneys general who do not want to give up the right to file additional suits against the banks — including Ms. Masto, Eric Schneiderman of New York and Beau Biden of Delaware — have declined to endorse a proposed settlement.

The breadth of the new Nevada complaint indicates that Bank of America’s problems extend throughout its mortgage operations, including origination, loan servicing and securitization. Nevada officials also found broad problems in the bank’s interactions with imperiled borrowers.

For example, the complaint says the bank advised credit reporting agencies that consumers were in default on their mortgages when they were not, and contends that Bank of America employees deceived borrowers about why their requests to modify loans were denied. In addition, it says, the bank falsely claimed that the actual owners of loans had refused to allow changes to their mortgages, and it incorrectly claimed that borrowers had failed to make payments on trial loan modifications when in fact they had. Bank of America also misled borrowers, the Nevada attorney general’s filing noted, by offering loan modifications with one set of terms only to come back with a substantially different deal.

Among the more troubling findings in the Nevada complaint is the contention by several Bank of America employees that the company imposed strict limits on the amount of time they could spend on the phone assisting troubled borrowers seeking help with their loans.

One worker said in a deposition cited in the complaint that employees were punished if they spent more than seven minutes or 10 minutes with a customer. Even though these limits allowed almost no time for assistance, Bank of America employees who did not curtail their conversations with troubled borrowers were reprimanded or fired, this employee said.

The Nevada filing also maintains that Countrywide, which Bank of America acquired in 2008, did not deliver necessary loan documentation when it put together mortgage securities and sold them to investors during the boom. Under the typical pooling and servicing agreements struck between Countrywide and investors who bought the securities, the bank was required to endorse the mortgage note and deliver it to the trustee overseeing the pool. Countrywide routinely failed to do so, the complaint notes.

These paperwork failures should have barred the bank from foreclosing on borrowers, the Nevada complaint says, but it went ahead nonetheless. This aspect of Ms. Masto’s complaint echoes a lawsuit filed in early August by Mr. Schneiderman, the New York attorney general, to block a settlement between Bank of New York and Bank of America covering 530 Countrywide mortgage pools. In that case, Mr. Schneiderman contends that Countrywide did not deposit loans into the mortgage pools as required by contract and that the bank had no right to bring foreclosure actions against these borrowers.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=dd29695a855fcd729ff3d8bcaf96dd26

Bank of America Said to Be Close to China Bank Sale

Opinion »

Crisis Points: Tripoli, the Morning After

In Tripoli, Libya, citizens re-emerge on the day after the city’s liberation to find streets of damaged beauty.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=9540a5cee47b8cf713f879caf401c807

Buffett to Invest $5 Billion in Shaky Bank of America

Bank of America’s problems are emblematic of the economic woes facing the country in general and the housing market in particular. Its fortunes have been waning as the outlook for growth has darkened and the financial markets have gyrated.

More than some other large banks, Bank of America’s fate is also heavily intertwined with that of consumers. It services one in five home loans, and with 5,700 branches assembled through decades of mergers, it counts 58 million customers.

The losses suffered by the bank — $9 billion over the last 18 months — have spurred worries about just how solid its foundations are and raised fears that it will need tens of billions of dollars in fresh capital. Bank executives insist that that is not the case, and they were quick to trumpet Mr. Buffett’s move as a crucial show of support for a management team, especially the chief executive, Brian T. Moynihan.

“In the shaky couple of weeks that we’ve gone through in the financial markets, it’s a good time for this vote of confidence by a savvy investor,” said Charles O. Holliday Jr., the bank’s chairman. “We didn’t need the capital, but it doesn’t hurt to have more in a volatile time.”

Even as investors cheered Mr. Buffett’s investment, lifting the bank’s shares more than 9 percent, analysts cautioned that it did not address more fundamental problems that will take years to correct. Moreover, it does little to lift the uncertainty over how much the company will ultimately have to pay to angry investors holding hundreds of billions of dollars worth of soured mortgage securities. Also hanging over the company is the prospect of a multibillion-dollar mortgage settlement with the government.

“This is a good endorsement but it’s no silver bullet,” said Michael Mayo, a bank analyst with Crédit Agricole in New York. “Bank of America got the Good Housekeeping seal of approval and Buffett got a sweetheart deal, but the company hasn’t been able to get its arms around the magnitude of the losses.”

The bulk of those losses stem from the company’s disastrous acquisition of Countrywide Financial in 2008, the subprime lender whose reckless lending policies have made it a symbol of the housing bubble. Mr. Moynihan’s predecessor, Kenneth D. Lewis, paid $4 billion for Countrywide. It has already cost the company more than $30 billion.

To offset that red ink and strengthen the bank’s capital position, Mr. Moynihan has sold more than $30 billion worth of assets since the start of 2010, most recently unloading its Canadian credit card business and a portfolio of commercial real estate.

Bank of America shares have been pounded in recent weeks amid deepening worries about just how much the mortgage mess will eventually cost the bank, how the downshift in the economy will crimp earnings and whether it can absorb losses without having to raise more capital.

Earlier this week, the stock dropped to its lowest point since the aftermath of the financial crisis, and nearly 30 percent below where it began the month.

Other banks’ stocks have dropped, too, but the speed of the descent and the surge in the cost of insuring the company’s debt awakened memories of the financial crisis, when companies like Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers found themselves short of capital.

Bank of America’s capital position is much stronger than it was going into the financial crisis — it held $218 billion at the end of the second quarter by one key measure, but was still behind peers like JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/26/business/buffett-to-invest-5-billion-in-shaky-bank-of-america.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Stocks & Bonds: Stocks Gain for Third Day on Late Surge

With a late-day surge, all of the sectors of the Standard Poor’s 500-stock index closed higher, led by a nearly 3 percent rise in financial stocks, capping off a day that wavered between modest gains and losses.

It was the third consecutive session that the major indexes had pushed ahead, partly as investors scooped up stocks that had become cheaper after recent sell-offs. Gold futures fell more than 5 percent, or more than about $100 an ounce, on the Comex in New York, and prices of the benchmark 10-year Treasury bond fell.

Some investors have been betting on the likelihood of more stimulus from the Federal Reserve, whose chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, will speak at the Fed’s symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyo., on Friday. Mr. Bernanke outlined stimulus options at the same meeting in 2010 in response to the economic slowdown.

At the close of trading, the S. P. was up 15.25 points, or 1.3 percent, at 1,177.60. The Dow Jones industrial average was up 143.95 points, about 1.3 percent, at 11,320.71. The Nasdaq composite index was up 21.63 points, or 0.88 percent, at 2,467.69.

The rally in stocks eased demand for bonds. The Treasury’s 10-year note fell 1 7/32, to 98 16/32. The yield rose to 2.29 percent, from 2.16 percent late Tuesday.

“You are seeing a lot of people, rightly or wrongly, sitting on the sidelines until they see what Bernanke says in Jackson Hole,” said Brian Lazorishak, portfolio manager at Chase Investment Counsel, before the day’s final kick.

“People are adopting a wait-and-see attitude,” he added.

The financial sector was led by Bank of America, up about 11 percent at $6.99.

Bloomberg News reported that the bank had sent a memo to employees dismissing speculation that it was considering a merger with JPMorgan Chase, and described as “just wrong” a report that it needed to raise as much as $200 billion.

Gold, which sagged sharply on Tuesday only to rise in Asian trading, fell further on the Comex exchange. It was down $104.20 to $1,754.10 an ounce for the August contract. The metal had been used as a safe haven in recent market volatility and risen to record nominal highs, and some analysts saw Wednesday’s decline as a technical reversal.

Jeffrey Nichols, the managing director of the American Precious Metals Advisors, said that the recent run-up in gold had been “so large in magnitude and fast” that “to have a significant correction here really makes sense.”

“Some of the rally was a function of speculative demand by short-term-oriented institutional traders,” he said, adding that the consequence would be for them to sell, take profits and move on to other instruments. But he said that the long-term economic outlook was basically unchanged.

On Wednesday, the Commerce Department reported that overall orders for durable goods rose 4 percent last month, the biggest increase since March. But a category that tracks business investment plans fell 1.5 percent, the biggest drop in six months.

Analysts noted that, considering recent talk of another recession, it would take more than one economic data point to convince investors that the economy was on solid footing. But Abigail Huffman, director of research at Russell Investments, added that some of Wednesday’s early gains may have been a result of the durable goods numbers and the market’s momentum from the previous day.

Stocks in Europe rose as some investors bet that the Federal Reserve would act soon to strengthen the economy and that the sharp stock market drops earlier this month were overdone.

The Euro Stoxx 50 index closed 1.8 percent higher in Europe, while Germany’s DAX index increased 2.7 percent and France’s CAC 40 index rose 1.8 percent.

Stock markets in Asia slipped as investors took in the downgrade by Moody’s Investors Service of its rating on Japanese government debt.

The Nikkei 225-stock index ended down 1.1 percent at 8,629.61 points. Similarly, the yen remained persistently strong in the international currency markets, hovering at about 76.60 yen per United States dollar.

In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index was 1 percent lower by midafternoon, the Straits Times index in Singapore fell 0.4 percent, and in India, the Sensex was down 0.8 percent by the afternoon.

Julia Werdigier and Bettina Wassener contributed reporting.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=4d042e9e4fd3b2b1f7f3cee50633da73

Bucks Blog: Caller ID Spoofing and Your Privacy

Robert Neubecker

In this weekend’s Your Money column, I look at the question of whether United States consumers are vulnerable to the sort of phone shenanigans that tabloid reporters in Britain seem to have been engaged in for some time.

Whatever the methods used there, it’s becoming increasingly clear that people in United States are vulnerable to something called caller ID spoofing. In essence, someone uses a service to make it appear that a call is coming from your phone number. The column explains how the process might be (pretty easily) used to listen to your voice mail or find out what you’ve spent (and where) on your Bank of America or Chase credit cards.

The moral of the week’s reporting efforts for me? I’m no longer throwing out credit card receipts and will be shredding them instead. And I’m going to be much more careful about what I leave in people’s voice-mail boxes.

How about you?

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=43bec1fe1422b82f40086cf961a8f6b8

Your Money: Your Voice Mail May Be Even Less Secure Than You Thought

Just how vulnerable are everyday United States residents to similarly determined snoops?

The answer is, more than you might think.

ATT, Sprint and T-Mobile do not require cellphone customers to use a password on their voice mail boxes, and plenty of people never bother to set one up. But if you don’t, people using a service colloquially known as caller ID spoofing could disguise their phone as yours and get access to your messages. This is possible because voice mail systems often grant access to callers who appear to be phoning from their own number.

Meanwhile, as Edgar Dworsky, a consumer advocate who founded ConsumerWorld.org, discovered recently, someone armed with just a bit of personal information about a target can also gain access to the automated phone systems for Bank of America and Chase credit card holders.

Once those systems recognize the phone number of the incoming call and those bits of personal information, they offer up the latest on the cardholder’s debts, late payments and credit limits. Bank of America’s computer will even read off a list of dozens of recent charges, including names of doctors and other businesses the cardholder might have patronized.

There are additional steps that the mobile phone companies and the card issuers could take to stop this sort of thing from ever happening. The fact that many of them don’t, however, makes this your problem to solve.

These sorts of breaches wouldn’t happen without spoofing, and surprisingly enough, it’s an activity that turns out to be perfectly legal, up to a point.

Commercial spoofing operations, which began offering services to individuals about seven years ago, are easy to find and cost $10 or so for 60 minutes of calling time. A Google search on “caller ID spoofing” leads to many providers with names like SpoofCard, whose slogan is “Be Who You Want to Be.”

Registered users call an access number (or use a form on a Web site) and enter the phone number they are calling and the phone number they want to show up on the caller ID display of the person they are calling. Then the service puts the call through.

Late last year, President Obama signed the Truth in Caller ID Act, which prohibits knowingly using spoofing services to defraud, cause harm or wrongfully obtain anything of value. The fine is up to $10,000 for a single incident.

The new law, however, is not much of a disincentive for people already engaged in illegal activity. After all, for years, even before commercial services were available, hacker thieves were manipulating caller ID information to convince consumers that a bank was phoning. Unwitting recipients of these calls would hand over their Social Security numbers and become identity theft victims.

Another common tactic was the jury duty fraud, in which thieves would program their phones to make it appear that they were calling from a local courthouse. Then they’d tell recipients that they’d missed their jury duty assignment and needed to pay a fine by credit card over the phone to avoid arrest. Once the thieves had the card numbers, they’d go on a spending spree.

Given all of this, it’s hard to imagine a legitimate use for caller ID spoofing, but there are at least a few. People who have been victims of domestic violence may not want anyone to know where they are calling from. Doctors use it when calling patients from cellphones to keep patients from getting the number and pestering them later. Parents sometimes use the service as well, if they have children who tend to ignore their calls.

Using spoofing services to listen to someone’s voice mail is probably not a legitimate use. That said, mobile phone voice mail systems would be more spoof-proof if they required passwords every time a user called in, no matter what phone someone was calling from. Only Verizon Wireless does this, though.

After a recent article in The Boston Globe showing how vulnerable voice mail was to spoofing, ATT Wireless improved its security a bit. While it still lets users choose whether to require a password each time they call their voice mail, the default is to have them use one — the opposite of the previous practice. Sprint is similar to ATT in this regard, while T-Mobile allows users to require a password every time they call in for voice mail, but doesn’t default to that option.

Why didn’t ATT force all customers to use a password? “We take the position that customers should have the information and tools available to make the right decision for them,” said Mark Siegel, a spokesman.

Jenna Wortham contributed reporting.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=c71227d4638fee77994b2b829a291031

Bucks Blog: Debit Overdraft Fees, While Voluntary, Are Still Steep

Elaine Thompson/Associated Press

Even though banks now must get permission from their customers before charging overdraft fees on debit card purchases, the fees they charge are still hefty — and some big banks have increased the maximum number of overdraft fees customers can run up each day.

A review by the Consumer Federation of America, an association of nonprofit groups, found that in the year since the Federal Reserve required banks to have customers “opt in” to debit overdraft protection, the typical overdraft fee at 14 large banks is still $35, with some charging as much as $37 per incident. That far exceeds the typical debit card overdraft of $20, the report notes.

One bank, BBT, doubled the maximum number of overdraft fees it charges in a day, to eight from four, the review found, and Regions Bank increased its daily limit to six from four.

But those banks still fall short of Fifth Third, which charges up to 10 overdraft fees per day. The bank starts off with a $25 fee, but charges higher fees for successive overdrafts in the same 12 months. That means it’s possible for Fifth Third customers to pay as much as $370 in fees in a single day if they hit the maximum, the report says.

“The fees are out of all proportion to the typical overdraft,” says Jean Ann Fox, the organization’s director of financial services. She notes that while the Federal Reserve now requires customers to actively choose the debit overdraft option, they can always change their minds and “opt out” if they are paying too many fees.

The federation would prefer that regulators require that banks simply deny debit transactions if an account lacks the funds to cover a purchase or withdrawal. Citibank has always followed that policy for debit cards and A.T.M. transactions, the report notes, and HSBC does now as well. Bank of America does not permit debit card overdrafts for single purchases, the report says, but  does allow consumers to overdraw at the A.T.M. — at a cost of $35 per transaction — with customer approval  each time, at the point of transaction.

All except five of the banks (Capital One, Citibank, HSBC, Regions Bank and Wells Fargo) tack on extra fees if the original overdraft isn’t repaid within a specified number of days. SunTrust, for instance, charges a second $36 fee after seven days, and JPMorgan Chase adds on $15 for every five days the overdraft remains unpaid.

The report notes that the order in which banks pay transactions has a big impact on the number of overdraft fees their customers are charged. Most big banks still process payments in order of the largest to the smallest, which results in more overdraft fees, although some are beginning to change their practices. Citibank, for instance recently started paying checks in order from smallest to largest. A few banks use a hybrid approach, paying debit and A.T.M. transactions in the order they occur but posting checks from highest to lowest.

Do you incur debit overdraft fees? Would you prefer that your bank simply deny the transaction?

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=96b4dc47c1333d4fa9145f3cda005a9b

DealBook: Bank of America Sells Canadian Credit Card Business

Bank of America took steps on Monday to exit the international credit card business, agreeing to sell off its $8.6 billion Canadian card venture to the TD Bank Group for an undisclosed amount and putting its remaining European card portfolio on the block.

With the announcements, Bank of America continued the push to overhaul its credit card business as the bank reels from hefty losses in its troubled mortgage division. While dumping the international card business, Bank of America has largely retained its card loans in the United States, among other core assets. The bank said it hopes the deals will shore up its capital ratios.

“Our strategy is clear: We have been transforming the company to deliver the franchise to our core customer groups, and building a fortress balance sheet behind that,” Brian T. Moynihan, the chief executive, said in a statement. “While the credit card remains a fundamental core product for our U.S. customers, an international consumer card business under another brand is not consistent with that strategy.”

Since Mr. Moynihan took over in early 2010, the bank has sold some 20 different businesses for roughly $30 billion. One big deal was announced in May, as the bank shed its remaining stake in BlackRock for $2.5 billion.

The moves come as Bank of America, the nation’s biggest bank by assets, struggles to regain its footing in the aftermath of the financial crisis. The beleaguered bank announced an $8.8 billion second-quarter loss after it agreed to settle huge legal claims surrounding its ill-fated acquisition of the subprime mortgage lender Countrywide Financial.

The bank’s stock price has been beaten down, too, hovering around $7 for much of the month. Bank of America shares rose more than 2 percent on Monday in premarket trading.

The announcements on Monday are Bank of America’s latest attempts to shed portions of its sprawling credit card business.

Earlier this month, the bank agreed to sell its Spanish credit card portfolio to Apollo Capital Management, the giant private equity firm. In April, Bank of America sold its $200 million small business credit card loans to Barclays.

The TD Bank Group, in addition to buying Bank of America’s $8.6 billion Canadian credit card business, agreed to purchase various other assets and liabilities for an undisclosed amount, according to a bank statement. The bank said it expected the deal to close in the fourth quarter.

The remaining European card portfolios are even bigger assets for Bank of America. The bank manages a combined $19 billion in credit card loans in Britain and Ireland, which it now plans to sell. That business employs about 4,000 people.

Article source: http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/08/15/bank-of-america-sells-canadian-credit-card-business/?partner=rss&emc=rss

Common Sense: Aftershock to Economy Has a Precedent That Holds Lessons

 The events of the last few weeks — gridlock in Washington, brinksmanship over raising the debt ceiling, Standard Poor’s downgrade of long-term Treasuries, renewed fears about European debt and a dizzying plunge in the stock market — bear an intriguing resemblance to some of the events of 1937-38, the so-called recession within the Depression, with a major caveat: it was a lot worse back then. The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 49 percent from its peak in 1937. Manufacturing output fell by 37 percent, a steeper decline than in 1929-33. Unemployment, which had been slowly declining, to 14 percent from 25 percent, surged to 19 percent. Price declines led to deflation.

 “The parallels to what is happening now are very strong,” Robert McElvaine, author of “The Great Depression: America, 1929-1941” and a professor of history at Millsaps College, said this week. Then as now, policy makers were struggling with how and when to turn off the fiscal stimulus and monetary easing that had been used to combat the initial crisis.

Are we at similar risk today? David Bianco, chief investment strategist for Merrill Lynch Bank of America, told me this week that “the market is collapsing faster than any fundamentals would warrant.” The possibility that the United States faces a recession as bad as 1937’s seems far-fetched. Nonetheless, the risk of another recession has soared, by Mr. Bianco’s estimate, to an 80 percent probability, one that would be worse than the 1991 recession. He noted that there had been only three instances when such a steep market decline was not followed by recession: 1966, 1987 (after the October stock market crash) and 1998 (after the implosion of Long Term Capital Management.) “Confidence is shaken and rapidly falling,” he said, a problem worsened by falling stock prices.

By 1937 an economic recovery seemed to be in full swing, giving policy makers every reason to believe the economy was strong enough to withdraw government stimulus. Growth from 1933 to 1936 averaged a booming 9 percent a year (rivaling modern-day China’s), albeit from a very low base. The federal debt had swelled to 40 percent of gross domestic product in 1936 (from 16 percent in 1929.). Faced with strident calls from both Republicans and members of his own party to balance the federal budget, President Franklin D. Roosevelt and Congress raised income taxes, levied a Social Security tax (which preceded by several years any payments of benefits) and slashed federal spending in an effort to balance the federal budget. Income-tax revenue grew by 66 percent between 1936 and 1937 and the marginal tax rate on incomes over $4,000 nearly doubled, to 11.6 percent from an average marginal rate of 6.4 percent. (The marginal tax rate on the rich — those making over $1 million — went to 75 percent, from 59 percent.)

The Federal Reserve did its part to throw the economy back into recession by tightening credit. Wholesale prices were rising in 1936, setting off inflation fears. There was concern that the Fed’s accommodative monetary policies of the 1920s had led to asset speculation that precipitated the 1929 crash and ensuing Depression. The Fed responded by increasing banks’ reserve requirements in several stages, leading to a drop in the money supply.

The possible causes of the ensuing stock market plunge and steep contraction in the economy provide fodder for just about everyone in the current political debate. Republicans can point to the Roosevelt tax increases. Democrats have the spending reductions, which coincides with Mr. McElvaine’s view. “It appears clear to me that the cause was policies put into effect in 1936-37, mainly cutting spending when F.D.R. believed his re-election was secured,” he said.

The Nobel-prize winning economist Milton Friedman blamed the Fed and the contraction in the money supply in his epic “Monetary History of the U.S.” And the stock market itself may have been a culprit, falling so steeply that it wiped out the wealth effect of rising prices, undermined confidence and brought back painful memories of the crash. But taken together, they suggest that policy makers moved too quickly to withdraw government support for the economy.

In the current context, it’s hard to blame the Fed for being too restrictive in its monetary policy, as the Fed was in 1937. If anything, critics fault it for being too accommodating, raising many of the same issues that led the Fed to tighten in 1937. Ben S. Bernanke, the Fed chairman, is a student of Depression history and is well aware of Mr. Friedman’s monetary analysis. “He won’t make the same mistake,” Jeremy Siegel, professor of finance at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, said.

The Fed’s pledge this week to keep interest rates near zero not just for a vague “extended period” but for a full two years rendered two-year Treasuries virtually risk-free and depressed their yields to a record low of 0.19 percent. This should lead investors to seek income from riskier assets, leading to lower interest rates across the spectrum, including mortgage rates.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=1b17daf5e441aaf780ecbb39b5a3d172