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Looking to Streamline Airport Security Screenings

December 20, 2011 by Leave a Comment

But Kenneth Dunlap, director of security at the International Air Transport Association, a global airline lobbying group, suggested just such a situation, seemingly straight out of the 1990 Arnold Schwarzenegger film “Total Recall.” In it, travelers would stop only briefly to identify themselves before entering a tunnel where machines would screen them for metals, explosives and other banned items as they walked through.

Such a vision may remain just that, a relic from a 20-year-old movie. But with global air traffic approaching 2.8 billion passengers a year and growing steadily about 5 percent a year, industry executives and security experts say a fundamental rethinking of today’s security checkpoints is inevitable.

What is less clear, however, is when — and to what degree — technology, regulation and public acceptance may come together to create nuisance-free security screening worldwide. Moreover, critics of the current system, including aviation security consultants, airport executives and passenger advocacy groups, say the innovations may not be any more likely to thwart a determined terrorist than today’s systems.

As to the air industry group’s idea, “it is a concept that has been growing in popularity,” said Norman Shanks, an aviation security and airport management consultant near London. “Technically, it is feasible. But practically, it’s fraught with problems.”

There is little disagreement over the need for vigilance at airports. But after the British authorities uncovered a plot in 2006 to bomb passenger planes bound for the United States using liquid explosives and an attempt in 2009 by a Nigerian man to ignite a bomb hidden in his underwear, new security measures have proliferated, stretching checkpoint wait times.

According to the airline group, airport checkpoints globally cleared an average of just 149 people an hour in 2011, down from 220 people an hour five years ago. At peak travel periods like Christmas, the number of passengers cleared has slowed to as few as 60 an hour at certain airports.

Many of the technologies that would be needed to drive a reliable walk-through security checkpoint are still laboratory prototypes. Others, like full-body scanners, biometric identification and various liquid and conventional explosives detection systems and even infrared lie detectors, are already in use or being tested in airports. But public concerns about privacy and the potential health effects of repeated exposure to X-rays, for instance, have led many governments to tread carefully.

“With any new technology, you get a certain amount of ‘What is this about?’ ” Janet Napolitano, the Homeland Security secretary, said in an interview. She said that the 500 or so body scanners in place at more than 100 airports in the United States had recently been equipped with software that generated a generic outline of passengers to protect their privacy. And while she played down the potential health risks linked to certain types of body scanners that use X-ray technologies, she acknowledged that “there is always a certain reticence when radiation is involved.”

To many security experts, however, improving both waiting times and security has less to do with rolling out sophisticated new machines and more with gathering information about passengers before they even arrive at the airport.

In the United States, the Transportation Security Administration has begun to shift to a more “risk-based” method of screening airline passengers, with the premise that the overwhelming majority of travelers pose no threat, yet must still be screened.

The first small step in this direction is a new program called PreCheck. Also known as the “trusted traveler program,” it provides airport security agents with the kind of information airlines routinely collect and store on their frequent fliers, including how they paid for their tickets, the history of their past flights and personal information like their home addresses.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/21/business/streamlining-airport-security.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Filed Under: Global Business Tagged With: , ,

Airline Industry Group Sees Tough Year Ahead

December 7, 2011 by Leave a Comment

PARIS — Any collapse of the euro risks also squelching growth in global air traffic next year, a scenario that could push airlines into a collective loss of more than $8 billion — the worst since the 2008 financial crisis, an industry group said Wednesday.

The International Air Transport Association said airlines were finishing 2011 in an already weakened position, as sluggish economic growth in many countries saps demand for air cargo and high fuel costs continue to eat into profit margins.

Still, the Geneva-based group, which represents most global carriers, said it would maintain its forecast for combined profits of $6.9 billion in 2011.

“The biggest risk facing airline profitability over the next year is the economic turmoil that would result from a failure of governments to resolve the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis,” Tony Tyler, the I.A.T.A.’s director general and chief executive, said in a statement.

A recent forecast by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development predicted a full-blown European financial crisis would cut global gross domestic product growth to 0.8 percent in 2012. Based on that, the I.A.T.A. said this had “the potential to cause global industry losses of $8.3 billion.”

Historically, the group said, global G.D.P. growth rates of below 2 percent have resulted in net losses for the airline industry.

“In this scenario, airlines would see growth in passenger demand grind to a halt and a 4.7 percent contraction in cargo markets,” it said. “Both passenger and cargo yields would fall by 1.5 percent.”

European airlines would be hardest hit, accounting for more than half of the total estimated loss, the I.A.T.A. said.

North American carriers would be expected to lose $1.8 billion in 2012, while the losses in Asia could reach $1.1 billion. Middle Eastern and Latin American carriers would each be predicted to lose $400 million, while African airlines would see losses of $200 million.

“This admittedly worst-case — but by no means unimaginable — scenario should serve as a wake-up call to governments around the world,” Mr. Tyler said.

Even if European leaders manage to avert a renewed financial crisis, it is likely that Europe would experience at least a brief recession, the I.A.T.A. said. In that case, the group forecast that profits would shrink by 50 percent in 2012 to $3.5 billion.

Despite seeing rapid growth in passenger traffic this year, European airlines are in a challenging position heading into the slowdown.

Fierce competition between low-cost carriers and traditional airlines is intensifying and squeezing already narrow profit margins. Europe’s carriers are expected to generate a collective profit of just $1 billion in 2011, down from a previously forecast $1.4 billion.

In the best case scenario, those figures will likely slip into losses of $600 million in 2012, the I.A.T.A. said, adding that falling demand would likely be exacerbated by expected increases in taxes charged to passengers. In a worst-case of a euro collapse, Europe’s airlines would be expected to see losses of $4.4 billion.

British Airways on Tuesday blamed an increase in Britain’s airport departure tax for its decision to cut back a planned 2012 expansion to its schedule that would have involved the recruitment of 800 new staff members.

If a full-blown crisis is avoided in Europe, global passenger demand would be expected to grow by 4 percent next year, slightly below the long-term annual average of around 5 percent, the I.A.T.A. said.

North American carriers, which are expected to see profits of around $2 billion this year, would likely generate slightly lower profits of $1.7 billion in 2012.

The Asia-Pacific region, which has been spared the brunt of the global slowdown, is expected to earn $3.3 billion in 2011, although that would likely slip to $2.1 billion next year under the best-case scenario.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=776cf2ea193a4ae77d4229a5caaf09dc

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Boeing Raises Forecast for Commercial Airplane Demand

June 16, 2011 by Leave a Comment

PARIS — Boeing on Thursday raised its long-range forecast for commercial aircraft demand, citing expectations that annual increases in passenger and cargo traffic — particularly in Asia — would continue to outpace average global economic growth over the next two decades.

The U.S. plane maker predicted that airlines would buy 33,500 new jets through 2030. That represented an increase of 8.5 percent from its previous forecast of 30,900 planes made last July as airlines were just beginning to emerge from a downturn triggered by the 2008-2009 financial crisis.

Boeing, based in Chicago, said the new orders would be worth $4 trillion, up 11 percent from the $3.6 trillion forecast a year ago.

“The world market has recovered and is now expanding at a significant rate,” said Randy Tinseth, vice president of marketing at Boeing’s commercial airplanes division. “Not only is there a strong demand for air travel and new airplanes today, but the fundamental drivers of air travel — including economic growth, world trade and liberalization — all point to a healthy long-term demand.”

The 20-year forecast from Boeing was announced in advance of the Paris Air Show, which opens Monday at Le Bourget airport, north of the capital. It compares with one published by Airbus in December, which predicted sales of 26,000 commercial planes through the end of 2029, with a market value of $3.2 trillion.

The International Air Transport Association, a trade group based in Geneva, predicted this month that carriers would report a collective profit of around $4 billion this year after recording a $18 billion profit in 2010. The industry lost a combined $26 billion in the 2008-2009 period.

Boeing predicted global gross domestic product growth would average around 3.3 percent per year over the next 20 years, with the economies of China and India each expected to expand by around 7 percent annually. Global air traffic was likely to continue growing at an average yearly clip of just over 5 percent. Within the Asia-Pacific region, air traffic was likely to grow by an average of 7 percent a year, Boeing said, compared with just 2.3 percent annual growth within North America and 4 percent within Europe.

“We expect passenger traffic to almost triple over the next 20 years, while cargo will more than triple,” Mr. Tinseth said.

The vast majority of new aircraft sales — around 70 percent — would be of single-aisle planes like the Boeing 737 and the Airbus A320, which normally seat around 150-200 passengers, Boeing said. Twin-aisle wide-bodies like Airbus’s planned A350-XWB and the forthcoming Boeing 787 “Dreamliner” would represent about 22 percent.

The single-aisle segment is the most hotly contested for both Boeing and Airbus, which each claim roughly 50 percent of the market. But the two companies are expected to begin to face competition at the beginning of the next decade when other manufacturers — including Bombardier of Canada, Comac of China and Embraer of Brazil — are expected to start deliveries of jets that can seat similar numbers of passengers to the 737 and the A320.

Boeing said it expected single-aisle jet sales over the next 20 years would reach $1.9 trillion, surpassing an expected $1.8 trillion for wide-bodies.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/17/business/global/17boeing.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Filed Under: Global Business Tagged With: , ,

Airlines, Flush Now With Revenue and Passengers, Expect a Downturn

June 10, 2011 by Leave a Comment

But with the economy slowing down again, the stock market sputtering and high oil prices cutting into household budgets, the airlines may be harder pressed to keep their fares up and planes packed, at least without resorting to significant cuts in capacity when the summer vacation season is over.

Some warning signs are already there. The airlines have failed to raise fares in six of their seven efforts since March, suggesting that some passengers may be balking at the higher ticket prices. “Airlines have overreached,” said George Hobica, the founder of AirFareWatchdog.com.

Still, the airlines’ aggressive pricing strategy has worked well for them. Every major airline has managed to squeeze more revenue out of its passengers this year, thanks not just to higher fares but also to a growing multitude of fees. In May, for instance, United Continental Holdings reported that its estimated revenue per passenger was 14 to 15 percent higher than a year ago, while Southwest Airlines said that measure had risen 11 to 12 percent.

It has not hurt that mergers have left fewer airlines and that they have taken a more disciplined approach to controlling capacity.

For the summer, traditionally the busiest air travel season of the year, demand for airline seats remains strong. The Air Transport Association, the airline trade group, expects 206 million people will fly in June through August, an increase of 1.5 percent over last year. The association even expects the number of passengers on international flights this summer to break last year’s record.

Fares, meanwhile, are at the highest seen since their peak in the third quarter of 2008, when the financial crisis hit, according to statistics compiled by the Department of Transportation.

While fares change daily, the cheapest nonstop round-trip flight from New York to Las Vegas for the July 4 weekend was selling on Friday for $597. The cheapest flight from San Francisco to Boston and back, operated by United Airways, was selling for $664, but that included one stop. Southwest Airlines was charging $703.80 for the trip, and that was with a stop in both directions. A week in Paris is also expensive — with round-trip fares for direct flights starting at $1,442 on American Airlines out of New York.

And these figures do not count the extra fees the airlines now charge, for everything from checked bags to priority boarding to reservation changes or fuel surcharges in international flights.

“It’s getting ridiculously expensive,” said Kevin Currie, a representative with the Teamsters union, who said he might soon curtail visits to relatives in Florida if ticket prices kept rising. “There are more people flying right now, so shouldn’t their prices go down?”

Of course, the airlines do not think that way. Since more passengers are vying for every available seat, they can keep raising fares and still fill their planes.

But there are cheaper fares to be had. Mr. Hobica, of AirFareWatchdog.com, noted that travelers could still buy a $280 round-trip fare between Newark and Los Angeles between July 3 and July 11, for example. “If you are willing to be flexible, there are deals.”

Steven Tilston, the senior director for analysis at Expedia, an online travel agent, agreed. “Flights are getting a little more expensive but that is not happening uniformly.”

Given the steeper fares, some travelers may be tempted to drive instead, despite the rise in gasoline prices. One Web site, BeFrugal.com, developed an online application that helps travelers compute the total cost of flying versus the time needed to drive between any cities.

The Web site calculates that it would take four hours and 50 minutes to get from a specific location in Salt Lake City to downtown Los Angeles by air, and cost $762, including cab fares along the way. The same trip could be made by driving about 11 hours for a total round-trip cost of $292.

This certainly has not been an easy year for the airlines. While air travel has recovered from the recession, fuel prices have surged this year. In addition, the earthquake and tsunami in Japan and the instability in the Middle East cut travel to those places. As a result, the International Air Transport Association slashed its forecast for the global industry’s profitability this week. The global trade group said it expected airline profits to fall sharply this year. Profits for North American carriers will drop to $1.2 billion this year, from $4.1 billion last year, the group said.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=67b1b97fe2ff3331507ba58cd6828d7e

Filed Under: Business News Tagged With: , ,