August 24, 2017

Soft Jobs Data Not Expected to Deter Fed

The Labor Department’s snapshot of the job market in August had several discouraging details underneath a relatively mundane headline number, which showed the economy added an estimated 169,000 jobs. Perhaps the most striking was a plunge in the share of Americans who are either working or looking for work, which fell to its lowest level since 1978.

“If you had a more optimistic view of the economy, which I think the Fed does, this should give you some pause,” said Joshua Shapiro, chief United States economist at MFR. “It’s been a real struggle here in the labor market.”

At the same time, earlier estimates of job growth in July and June were revised sharply downward, and hiring over the summer months was largely driven by low-wage sectors like retail, food services and health care.

Still, economists said they believed that Fed governors would find enough bright spots in this report to justify scaling back their monthly purchases of long-term Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities — measures that help push down long-term interest rates — after their next meeting on Sept. 17 and 18.

“There’s just barely enough in that report and in other forward-looking indicators we’ve seen to give Fed governors the confidence they need on the 18th to taper,” said Ian Shepherdson, the chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

“For the record, I don’t think they should, given the risks posed by Syria and the impending fiscal chaos in Washington,” he said, noting the expected Congressional battles over the debt limit and spending measures. “The costs of delaying until some of those factors are sorted out is not very great. But the Fed has given no indication it’s thinking that way.”

Investors seemed to agree, with bond yields dipping slightly after the jobs report came out. As for stocks, after a topsy-turvy day, the Standard Poor’s 500-stock index and the Dow Jones industrial average both closed about where they began on Friday. In Friday trading, the Dow closed down 14.98 points, or 0.1 percent, at 14,992. The S. P. 500 edged up 0.09 points, or 0.01 percent, closing at 1,655.17. The Nasdaq climbed a slight 1.23 points, or 0.03 percent, to finish at 3,660.01. The price on a 10-year Treasury note rose 16/32, to
96 9/32, with the yield falling to 2.93 from 3.00 on Thursday. The number of payroll jobs added in August was just shy of the average pace of hiring over the last year, and the unemployment rate edged down to 7.3 percent from 7.4 percent. Unemployment, however, fell for the “wrong reasons,” Mr. Shapiro said: because people dropped out of the labor force and so were no longer counted as unemployed, and not because more unemployed people found jobs.

The jobless rate is now edging close to the 7 percent level that the Federal Reserve chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, had identified as the Fed’s target for ending its asset purchases altogether around the middle of next year. For several months, Fed governors have been saying that the Fed expected to begin reducing the monthly purchases “later this year,” which has been widely interpreted to point toward beginning the shift as early as September.

Charles L. Evans, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and one of the more vocal proponents of highly accommodative monetary policy, used this phrasing in a speech on Friday, suggesting he was open-minded about the “exact pattern of the reduction in purchases that we eventually take.”

The Fed’s more hawkish members have been more explicit about their desired policy moves. Esther L. George, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City and a leading critic of the asset purchases, said on Friday that the Fed should cut its bond buying to $70 billion a month in September, from the current $85 billion a month, split between Treasuries and mortgage bonds. “It is time to begin a gradual — and predictable — normalization of policy,” she said.

Some economists suggested that Fed governors could react to the latest economic data by tapering their bond purchases slowly over a longer period of time and perhaps in conjunction with other measures that would underscore the central bank’s commitment to helping the economy heal. For example, the Fed could announce that it is extending the period that it holds short-term interest rates near zero.

Binyamin Appelbaum contributed reporting.

This article has been revised to reflect the following correction:

Correction: September 6, 2013

An earlier version of this article referred incorrectly to members of the Federal Open Market Committee. Some members are presidents of regional Federal Reserve banks; they are not all members of the Board of Governors.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/07/business/economy/us-economy-adds-169000-jobs-as-unemployment-rate-falls.html?partner=rss&emc=rss