BEIJING — Big manufacturers in China narrowly avoided a contraction in December a survey showed Sunday, but downward risks persist and suggest that the Chinese economy will need fresh policy support to counter a slowdown in growth.
The official purchasing managers’ index, which is compiled by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing on behalf of the National Bureau of Statistics, rose to 50.3 in December from 49 in November.
That indicated a slight expansion in business activity in the vast Chinese factory sector, but the reading was barely above 50, which separates expansion from contraction.
The index fell below 50 in November for the first time since early 2009.
Analysts had expected the official purchasing index to be at 49.1 in December.
“The rebound in the December P.M.I. shows that there will be no big slowdown in the Chinese economy,” Zhang Liqun, a researcher with the Development Research Center of the State Council, wrote in a statement accompanying the survey.
The economy faces downward pressure, but there are positive elements that could underpin growth, the researcher said.
The new orders subindex rose to 49.8 in December, from 47.8 in November, while the subindex for new export orders rose to 48.6 from 45.6 in November.
A similar survey Friday by HSBC and Markit, a British data provider, which captures data from smaller factories, moved up to 48.7 in December from a 32-month low of 47.7 in November.
But the private survey signaled a modest contraction in activity on the month.
Despite the rise in the official survey, it is stuck near its weakest levels since early 2009.
Economists at Citibank said China was more likely to take policy steps to combat what the bank saw as a tangible slowing of economic activity.
“Accumulating evidence of economic weakness would herald more policy easing in the months ahead, starting with another” required reserve ratio cut by the Chinese New Year, Citibank said in a note to clients.
“Although domestic consumption held up steadily, its contribution may have been more than offset by weakened investment activity and deteriorating foreign trade conditions,” the note said.
China’s central bank is in the spotlight, with many analysts expecting that it will soon announce a cut in the required reserve ratio that it demands commercial lenders hold.
The central bank cut the ratio by 0.5 percentage points on Nov. 30 from a record high of 21.5 percent.
Cutting the ratio frees up funds that could be used for lending to support growth, but China’s leaders remain wary of relaxing their grip too soon on inflation.
The official survey showed that a significant drop in price pressures in November did not follow through to December.
The prices subindex of the official purchasing managers’ index rose to 47.1 from 44.4 in November.
Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/02/business/global/02iht-yuan02.html?partner=rss&emc=rss
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