Economix: Conspiracy Theories About the G.O.P. and the Economy

In the last few days, several readers, economists and radio hosts have asked me whether I buy the most cynical interpretation of the debt crisis stalemate: maybe Republicans are reluctant to raise the debt ceiling, or are calling for austerity measures that could slow the recovery, because they actually want the economy to do badly. That way voters will demand a change in political leadership, and vote more Republicans into office in 2012.

CATHERINE RAMPELL

Dollars to doughnuts.

I’m no political scientist, but that sounds a little too Machiavellian even for the most hardhearted of politicians.

But more important, I’m also reluctant to believe this conspiracy theory because the conspiracy isn’t necessary. That is, the economy is likely to be in bad shape in November 2012 no matter what happens with the debt talks.

As of January, the Congressional Budget Office projected that unemployment in the fourth quarter of 2012 would be 8.2 percent. Macroeconomic Advisers, another respected forecaster, recently published a similar outlook.

Of course, there are many outcomes to these debt negotiations that would make the economy even worse off than the current projections show. But really, there’s no need to paint the lily.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=e86944192f3b9740543b7e083b8b8fda