CATHERINE RAMPELL
Dollars to doughnuts.
During last night’s Republican presidential debate, Gov. Rick Perry of Texas made an “oops” when he forgot the third of three federal departments he wanted to eliminate. As Nate Silver’s blog post noted, Mr. Perry’s odds of winning the Republican nomination halved within seconds on Intrade, an online market where people bet on the odds of various events.
The red points in the Intrade chart below show that bettors believed his chance of winning the Republican nomination fell from nearly 9 percent to a low of 3 percent:
It’s amazing how quickly that happened; clearly markets process information efficiently when they have it.
It also reminded me (and others on the Twitterverse last night) of another market event from last year…
Report of the Staffs of the CFTC and SEC to the Joint Advisory Committee on Emerging Regulatory Issues.
…except without the quick snap back up.
For a more in-depth take on what Wednesday night’s gaffe could mean for Mr. Perry’s presidential chances, check out Nate Silver’s blog post.
Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=a98dbbda00cd9e846e0d91620840a8be
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