E.C.B. Warns of Dangers Ahead for Euro Zone Economy

But the E.C.B., in its twice-yearly assessment of risks to the euro area financial system, did not mention one risk that clearly weighs on many investors, economists and political leaders: the possibility that the euro zone could break up.

“I have no doubt about the euro,” Mario Draghi, the president of the E.C.B., told members of the European Parliament in Brussels. “The one currency is irreversible.”

He said he had discussed the possibility of a euro breakup in an interview with The Financial Times, published Monday, to counter “morbid speculation” about the demise of the common currency.

By some measures, the stresses on the European financial system are approaching or even exceeding levels last seen after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in 2008. For example, market perception of the risk that two large banks in the euro area could fail in the next year have surpassed the previous peak in 2009, according to data in the E.C.B.’s Financial Stability Review.

“The transmission of tensions among sovereigns, across banks and between the two intensified to take on systemic crisis proportions not witnessed since the collapse of Lehman Brothers three years ago,” the report said.

Several negative developments are converging, the report said. Banks must roll over about €220 billion, or $286 billion, in debt during the first three months of 2012, even as market funding has become scarce and expensive. Credit crunches are already visible in some countries like Ireland, Vitor Constâncio, the vice president of the E.C.B., told reporters Monday.

Meanwhile, slower economic growth is likely to lead to an increase in bad loans, which will further weaken lenders.

“The whole year is going to be a difficult year for the banks,” Mr. Draghi said.

But Mr. Draghi and Mr. Constâncio said that the E.C.B. addressed the problem when, earlier this month, the bank announced plans to begin lending money to banks at 1 percent interest for as long as three years. The action was one of a series of moves designed to ensure that banks have the money they need to support economic growth.

The measures “will eliminate all excuses to say that credit could decelerate,” Mr. Constâncio said.

Echoing recent statements by Mr. Draghi, the Stability Review leaned on political leaders to swiftly deploy measures they have agreed on to contain the crisis, such as the new euro area bailout fund.

Mr. Constâncio also criticized European leaders for a plan, supposedly voluntary, under which investors would accept a 50 percent decline in the value of their holdings of Greek bonds. That action in July put markets on notice that default of a euro zone country was not unthinkable, and raised pressure on other countries, Mr. Constâncio said.

Political leaders have since said that Greece will be a unique case, a statement some investors have taken as an implied guarantee on the debt of other countries. Asked if there was in fact a guarantee, Mr. Constâncio put the onus on governments to implement policies “that will counter the risk of that happening.”

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