Dynamics of G.O.P. Race Spur Romney to Hedge on Flat Tax

Lately, though, his tone has been more positive. “I love a flat tax,” he said in August.    

Flat-tax plans have come and gone before, and analysts note that they have tended to lose support once they come under scrutiny. But Mr. Romney’s support of the concept of a flat tax underscores the tightrope he is walking as taxes become a larger focus of the Republican presidential race and he faces rivals’ accusations of inconsistency on the issues.  

That is because Mr. Romney also is always careful to emphasize — as he did in his comments two months ago — that he would never support any plan that hurts the middle class and helps the wealthy. But by replacing the graduated income tax with one single rate everyone pays, that is precisely what flat tax plans generally do, at least those that try to generate anywhere near the same tax revenue. 

Politically, Mr. Romney’s favorable comments about flat taxes speak to the deep frustration many Republican voters share about the current system. While Herman Cain’s “9-9-9” tax overhaul proposal has been criticized by his rivals because it includes a new national sales tax in addition to a flat income tax, the catchy plan has nonetheless helped vault the relatively unknown businessman to the fore of the party’s field.  Gov. Rick Perry of Texas is now trying to channel that same energy to rescue his campaign, and this week he is expected to unveil a flat-tax proposal resembling the one put forward 15 years ago by Mr. Forbes, who is advising him.

But flat taxes, despite Mr. Romney’s favorable comments, are not part of his campaign plan, which calls for extending Bush tax cuts and lowering corporate tax rates. Some conservative tax activists say his murky flat-tax stance highlights a broader complaint: his lack of consistency on conservatives’ core issues, like abortion.

“His problem is that people don’t have confidence that they know what he believes in, and I think there is a pretty good reason for that,” said Chris Chocola, a Republican former congressman from Indiana who is president of the Club for Growth.

Grover Norquist, head of Americans for Tax Reform, says he sees Mr. Romney’s shift as part of a broader consensus among the field to move toward a flatter tax structure. But with that movement gaining strength in the Republican Party, he said, Mr. Romney’s past critical comments about flat taxes are “awkward” and “a little tough to explain.”

Dick Armey, the Texas Republican and former House majority leader who was an early flat-tax proponent, said he believed Mr. Romney was doing “the conventional, orthodox, old traditional Republican thing: you’ve got to give it lip service but ‘I don’t want to do much heavy lifting.’ ”

Romney aides dispute the criticism and say his objection to the Forbes plan was specific: that it would raise taxes on the middle class. Gail Gitcho, a Romney spokeswoman, said there was “no inconsistency” in his position. She said he could support a flat tax that did not raise taxes.

But when asked about the many flat-tax plans that have been floated in the last two decades, Romney aides said they could not recall any that might pass muster with Mr. Romney’s requirements. Nor would they venture the outlines of a new plan that might meet his test. They also do not dispute the notion that a flat tax could never generate the same amount of tax revenue while also maintaining the same relative burdens on the wealthy and the middle class.

“You can have a flat-tax system that retains elements of progressivity, but I can’t say whether it would retain the same level of progressivity and same level of revenue,” one aide said.

Independent analysts say it is hard to imagine a flat-tax plan that would not be very regressive compared with the current system. Right now, the highest tax rate for many middle-income earners is 15 percent, while the richest Americans are subject to a 35 percent rate on much of their income.

“If you’re going to get the same amount of revenue, someone has to pay the price,” said Roberton Williams, a senior fellow at the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center, a joint venture of the Urban Institute and the Brookings Institution.  “The rich pay less, the poor pay nothing, and the middle class bears the burden.”

Mr. Norquist and Mr. Armey see more support now for a flat tax than ever before. But Mr. Romney’s hesitation may ultimately prove more popular with many voters if the arc of this election cycle’s flat-tax proposals follows the pattern of some past years.

“The people with big incomes are going to see big tax cuts, the low-income people are going to see big tax increases, and suddenly that doesn’t seem fair,” Mr. Williams said. “You start to see that kind of thing, and suddenly the bloom is off the rose. When people start to look at what it’s going to mean for them particularly, they say, ‘Wait a minute.’ ”

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