The notion that the United States could essentially talk itself into a recession is not new. As recently as 2019, before the pandemic, markets were roiled by former President Donald J. Trump’s trade war with China and consumer sentiment started to dip. Mr. Trump accused his critics and the media of “doing everything they can to crash the economy because they think that will be bad for me and my re-election.”
Mr. Furman pointed out that economic sentiment can often diverge along party lines depending on what party is in power, but that it is uncertain to what extent those feelings will influence hiring and investment plans.
“Republicans became much more pessimistic about the economy after Biden was elected,” he said.
Beyond campaign ads, the sense of economic doom is being amplified by right-leaning media outlets, which consistently tie inflation to Mr. Biden’s policies.
Monica Crowley, a conservative commentator who appears regularly on Fox News, said that inflation was a regular topic during her appearances and on her podcast. She argues that the jump in prices coincided directly with the passage of the pandemic relief package last year and predicts that Democrats will pay the price for inflation because it is harming their low-income and working class base the hardest.
“This is not some obscure fiscal or monetary issue that the American people might have some issue understanding,” Ms. Crowley, a former senior Treasury Department official during the Trump administration, said. “Inflation affects everybody. The political fallout for the Democrats is going to be very significant.”
The Biden administration has argued that the focus on inflation has in some cases been unfair.
Jared Bernstein, a member of the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers, dismissed the notion that Mr. Biden was facing “Jimmy Carter déjà vu” in terms of inflation and suggested in an interview with Fox News that the network was trying to cast the data in the most negative light.
“You like to focus on the headwinds,” Mr. Bernstein said to Neil Cavuto of Fox on Wednesday. “And I get it — if it bleeds, it leads.”
Article source: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/14/us/politics/democrats-republicans-inflation-midterms.html
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