The UK could become much more vulnerable to price shocks and geopolitical events unless new offshore fields are approved and developed—and the UK’s gas production could plummet by 75% by 2030, the offshore energy industry body OGUK said on Thursday.

Without new investment in new gas fields in the North Sea, the UK will be left more vulnerable to crisis, such as the current one between Russia and Ukraine, the industry association noted.

Additional price shocks would add to the ongoing energy crisis in the UK where gas and power suppliers are going bust, while customers face a cost-of-living crisis when the energy market regulator Ofgem raises the price cap on energy bills as of April 1. The worst is yet to come for consumers in April, when millions of households would be thrown into energy poverty, with many people having to choose between eating and heating. 

Domestic production currently meets 47% of the UK’s gas demand, 31% comes from pipeline imports from Europe, mostly from Norway, and 21% from LNG imports. In 2020, Russia supplied 3.4% of the UK’s gas, OGUK said.

According to the industry body, new fields are needed in the UK North Sea to stave off a predicted 75-percent plunge in domestic supplies if no new fields are approved. Many fields remain to be tapped, according to geological surveys. Such fields are estimated to contain oil and gas equivalent to 10-20 billion barrels of oil—enough to sustain production for 10-20 years, OGUK said.

“In the longer term, if UK gas production is allowed to fall as predicted, then our energy supplies will become ever more vulnerable to global events over which we have no control – as we now see happening with Russia’s threatened invasion of Ukraine,” OGUK Energy Policy Manager Will Webster said on Thursday.

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Current tensions between Russia and Ukraine are expected to have a negative impact on global grain markets, as both countries are among the world’s largest grain producers.
However, it’s currently difficult to assess the scale of potential damage as food prices depend on a range of factors, according to Monika Tothova, an economist with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).

“Taking into account the input of both nations into the world market of grain, the tensions between them inevitably influence the situation,” the economist said in an interview with TASS.

According to Tothova, the markets are also deeply dependent on such factors as volatility, climate conditions, costs of production materials, and many others.

“Thus, it is difficult to say exactly what impact we should expect, but certainly the current situation contributes to creating uncertainty in the markets,” Tothova said.

READ MORE: Will fears of ‘Russian invasion’ of Ukraine obliterate world financial markets?

The economist added that much depends on how long the current situation could last and the way it could unwind.

“If further developments affect production, export logistics and other effects on grain markets will be very tangible,” she said.

The economist noted that Russian grain exports currently account for 20% of the global market, while Ukrainian grain currently accounts for around 10%. Nearly 10% of global grain output is produced in Russia, while Ukrainian production amounts to 3% of the world’s output.

A wide range of Western media outlets, along with multiple US officials, have been speculating about an imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine since November 2021. The White House and some US allies threatened the Kremlin with a new round of ‘crippling’ sanctions in the event of a military assault, citing the movement of Russian troops within the country’s vast western territory as evidence of such a plan. Moscow has consistently rejected the accusations, saying it has a right to carry out military maneuvers as it pleases within its own borders.

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The amount of liquefied natural gas (LNG) running from entry terminals to the European gas transmission system has reportedly set a new monthly record in January, hitting the highest for this month since records began in 2011.

Some 405 million cubic meters of gas were delivered to Europe as of January 28, marking an enormous increase of 110% compared to the annual average for this date over the past five years, according to data from the Gas Infrastructure Europe trade group, as quoted by TASS.

The capacities of re-gasification of LNG and further injections of the fuel into pipelines in Europe are currently loaded at 67.4% of the maximum, the group’s data shows.LNG stocks in European gas storage tanks are 5% above the five-year average, which is thought to be quite high for the end of January.

Earlier this week, the WSJ reported that more than two-dozen tankers loaded with LNG were en route from the US to Europe, lured by high prices in the region, with another 33 ships also likely to head to the EU.

The European energy crunch, which has sent gas and power prices soaring, was exacerbated when storage tanks in the EU dropped to their lowest seasonal levels in more than ten years. The decline was attributed to longer-than-usual maintenance at Norwegian fields and to Russia restocking its own inventories.

READ MORE: EU signals it’s on an energy-buying spree

On January 27, the loading levels of gas reserves in underground storage facilities in Europe dropped to 39.22%, which is 15.6% less than the annual average for this date over the past five years. The storage tanks currently contain 42.34 billion cubic meters, 15.7 billion cubic meters less than in 2021.

Additionally, the latest speculation over probable military conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues fueling concerns about the supply of Russian gas. The US and Western allies have pledged to impose a new series of anti-Russian sanctions in the event of an invasion, the very idea of which has been repeatedly rejected by Moscow. The sanctions, reportedly, may target Russian energy sales.

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Article source: https://www.rt.com/business/547765-europe-lng-supplies-record-high/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS

A new report by the World Gold Council (WGC) has revealed that demand for the yellow metal increased to 4,021 tons last year. The growth was propelled by fourth-quarter demand, which jumped almost 50% to a 10-quarter high.

“Demand recouped much of the Covid-related losses sustained during 2020,” the WGC said.

Central bank gold buying has far outpaced that of 2020, surging 82% to 463 tons and thus lifting global reserves to a near 30-year high. The pace of buying slowed in the second half, with a 22% year-on-year decline in Q4.

According to the WGC data, demand for gold in the consumer-driven jewelry and technology sectors also recovered throughout the year in line with economic growth and sentiment. Jewelry growth was almost universal. “Gains were fueled primarily by the two global heavyweights – India and China – but decent recovery was also seen across all other regions.”

Meanwhile, global holdings of gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) fell by 173 tons in 2021, in sharp contrast to 2020’s record 874-ton increase.

“Gold’s performance this year truly underscored the value of its unique dual nature and the diverse demand drivers. On the investment side, the tug of war between persistent inflation and rising rates created a mixed picture for demand. Increasing rates fueled a risk-on appetite among some investors, reflected in ETF outflows,” said WGC Senior Analyst EMEA Louise Street.

On the other hand, she said, a search for safe haven assets led to a rise in gold bar and coin purchases, buoyed by central bank buying.

“Declines in ETFs were offset by demand growth in other sectors. Jewelry reached its highest level in nearly a decade as key markets like China and India regained economic vibrancy. We expect similar dynamics to influence gold’s performance in 2022, with demand drivers fluctuating according to the relative dominance of key economic variables,” Street noted.

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The iPhone maker’s shares soared some 7% to $170.33 per share on Friday, marking the biggest one-day jump in a year and a half. Already the globe’s largest company by market value, Apple posted a Wall Street-beating record $123.9 billion in sales for the last three months of 2021, despite pressing supply-chain constraints, the company announced this week. Total revenue increased 11% in the quarter ended December 25, 2021, Apple said, while profits jumped 20%, reaching a record $34.6 billion.

“Apple is known for its supply-chain prowess and many wonder about the actions Apple has taken and will take to better position itself for this calendar year,” Scott Kessler of analytics firm Third Bridge told Reuters.

The figures helped Apple shares make up for the losses it has seen in recent weeks during a sell-off in growth and technology stocks.

READ MORE: Apple to turn iPhones into payment terminals – media

The positive market reaction also stemmed from Apple’s announcement of its planned metaverse push. The company’s CEO Tim Cook on Thursday said Apple is mulling expanding its library of 14,000 augmented reality (AR) apps.

“We see a lot of potential in this space and are investing accordingly,” Cook said, responding to a question on Apple’s plans for the metaverse, the increasingly popular virtual world environment that can be accessed via internet.

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The US trade deficit has soared past $1 trillion in 2021 for the first time on record, government estimates from the Census Bureau show. For the past year, the figure rose to an unprecedented $1.08 trillion from $893.5 billion in 2020, a record high of its own.

The goods-trade gap jumped 3% in December alone to $101 billion, posting the biggest monthly increase to date. Analysts explain the situation with the shift of consumer focus to imports of a variety of non-US-made products, like toys, smartphones, and appliances.

“Strong demand and shifting consumer preferences during the pandemic led to a surge in imports that continues to outstrip exports and is contributing to all-time highs in the deficit,” Rubeela Farooqi, chief US economist at New York-based High Frequency Economics, told Reuters.

READ MORE: Over 35 million US families face financial hit

Analysts add that while the US showed a speedy recovery after the Covid-19 pandemic-induced crisis, enabling citizens to boost their spending on goods, many other countries lagged behind in their economic rebound, which made the demand for US exports slower to recover. More simply put, Americans could afford to purchase more non-US-made goods, and that’s what they did.

Experts say the deficit may narrow when the global recovery catches up, but with the Omicron variant still at large, this may take a while.

“The Omicron variant threatens to fuel an even wider deficit as virus concerns weigh on global growth and tourism, putting downward pressure on US exports, while domestic goods demand stays robust,” Mahir Rasheed of Oxford Economics told Market Watch.

More specific numbers on the trade deficit are expected next week when the full December report on the US trade balance is due to be published.

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Article source: https://www.rt.com/business/547524-us-trade-deficit-record/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS

The Biden administration says sanctions that it plans to introduce against Russia in the event of a hypothetical war with Ukraine would target Russian industry and key public figures, but not ordinary people.

“We can’t preview every action, but the intent there really is to have measures that we think will degrade Russia’s industrial capabilities and industrial production capacity over time, not to go after individual, everyday Russian consumers,” White House national security official Peter Harrell said in a speech to the Massachusetts Export Center on Thursday, as cited by Reuters.

Harrell also stated that in the event of military escalation, Washington is ready to immediately impose “crippling financial costs on major Russian financial institutions as well as to impose a range of quite sweeping export controls that will degrade Russian industrial capacity over the mid- and long term.” He went on to specify that the US strategy includes sanctions against major Russian financial institutions aiming “to trigger capital flight, to trigger inflation, to make the Russian Central Bank provide bailouts to its banks… so [Russian President Vladimir] Putin feels costs on day one.” Harrell’s remarks narrow the scope of measures that may be introduced, however, it appears unlikely that the ordinary consumer in Russia would not be affected by the collapse of the country’s economy, as Washington proposes.

READ MORE: Can Europe survive without Russian gas?

Harrell did say he hoped measures would never have to be implemented, but stressed that Washington is fully prepared to introduce them if need be. According to the official, the measures aim to “degrade Russia’s ability to have industrial production in a couple of key sectors.” He did not specify the sectors, but other White House officials did mention the aviation, maritime, robotics, artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and defense industries. According to various sources, the US has the means to stop firms worldwide from shipping items like semiconductor chips made with US technology to Russia, as it did with China’s Huawei. Talks regarding the matter have reportedly been held with Taiwan and South Korea, major manufacturers of chips.

On Friday, Commerce Department official Thea Kendler noted that sanctions would also target Russia’s “key people,” while US President Joe Biden earlier this week vowed to consider personal sanctions against the Russian leader himself.

All measures are to come “in waves,” with US officials “quite confident we will have a very high degree of alignment with Europe if Russia does invade Ukraine.”

The talk of potential sanctions against Russia comes amid the global hype over Moscow’s recent amassing of troops in its regions bordering with neighboring Ukraine. Western states, largely at the behest of Washington, view it as a preface to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The Kremlin, however, repeatedly stressed that no such intentions exist and the movement of a country’s troops within its borders should not concern outsiders.

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Article source: https://www.rt.com/business/547705-us-sanctions-to-spare-ordinary-russians/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS

Global coal prices jumped by over a third in January, edging toward record highs reached in October 2021, due to supply shortages and tensions between Russia and Ukraine. The benchmark Newcastle coal index rose to $262 a ton.

The coal market reacted to a month-long export ban by major supplier Indonesia, which halted deliveries following new domestic market sales regulations at the peak of the European heating season. The ban is due to be lifted on January 31, but experts are uncertain about the volume of coal the markets may expect, with Indonesian authorities saying only miners that have complied with the new laws will be allowed to resume exports.

There are also worries over the outcome of the Russia-Ukraine crisis. The reported increase of Russian troops near Ukraine’s border has been met with outrage in the West, which threatened Moscow with sanctions in the event of a military conflict.

Some experts speculate that Russia may cut off gas supplies to Europe in response to sanctions. If that happens, Europe, which is already short on gas, with the commodity prices nearly doubling in the past months, may start loading up on coal, analysts say. According to data from UK oil and gas giant BP, European utilities have already stepped up imports of coal since mid-2021, after reducing their share of global coal use to 6.2% in 2020 amid a push towards greener energy.

READ MORE: Can Europe survive without Russian gas?

Projections from commodity flows tracking firm Kpler show that Europe is due to import some 5.58 million tons of thermal coal this month, the highest monthly figure since 2019 and over 1 million tons more than the monthly average for 2021 coal imports. If this buying spree continues, coal prices will keep rising, squeezing the market already tight from high demand in two major coal consumers – China and India. Last year’s coal price records were reached because of shortages in these two states amid cold weather and booming post-Covid-19 pandemic industrial demand.

Analysts expect coal prices to retreat in February, as the heating season in the Northern Hemisphere draws to an end, but they claim this could change if Russia halts gas deliveries to Europe or stops coal exports.

Ukraine was once a major producer of coal, with some 50% of the commodity mined in its eastern regions, which broke away in 2014. The two self-proclaimed republics of Donetsk (DNR) and Lugansk (LNR), both on the Russian border, declared independence from Ukraine and remain at a standoff with Kiev. Amid the conflict, many mines had been shut down and coal production dropped. The breakaway republics halted coal shipments to the rest of Ukraine, which forced Kiev to import the commodity for power generation from the US. This is much more expensive due to freight costs, which resulted in a spike in power prices. However, coal exports from the regions have been gaining momentum recently, up 26.8% last year after Russia allowed quota-free imports from the breakaway republics.

Considering all the constraints weighing on the global coal market, analysts say the pricing situation remains unclear.

“[Buyers have] very few options, there are supply issues everywhere,” Vasudev Pamnani from Indian consultancy Lavi Coal Info OPC told Reuters.

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