Speaker Nancy Pelosi of California has just a three-vote margin in the House, and a half dozen moderates are considering whether to oppose the blueprint unless they get a scheduled vote on the Senate-passed infrastructure bill — to claim a quick victory and a White House bill-signing ceremony.

“When you’ve got a bill that will create two million jobs a year, with the support of the A.F.L.-C.I.O. and the Chamber of Commerce, all coming together with Democrats and Republicans and, by the way, the president, why would we not bring this to a vote and get it done immediately?” asked Representative Josh Gottheimer, Democrat of New Jersey. “Of course we will be pushing hard.”

Ms. Pelosi told House Democrats on Wednesday in a private call that she would not take up the bill before the Senate passed the second, larger package.

“I am not freelancing — this is the consensus,” Ms. Pelosi told Democrats, according to two people familiar with the discussion, who disclosed the comments on the condition of anonymity. “The votes in the House and Senate depend on us having both bills.”

That stance reflects the views of House liberals, who fear that if the infrastructure bill is signed into law, moderate Democrats will declare victory and withdraw support for the liberals’ priority bill.

With two significant bills in play, the fight over timing is growing fierce — and public.

“Now that the Senate approved the bipartisan infrastructure bill, the House must pass it ASAP,” Representative Stephanie Murphy, Democrat of Florida and a leader of the fiscally conservative Blue Dog Coalition, wrote on Twitter. “While I support passing a targeted reconciliation bill to help FL families, we shouldn’t hold infrastructure hostage to it.”

Article source: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/11/us/politics/senate-budget-plan.html

For most of the year, many developing countries in Southeast Asia did not have much of a choice when it came to vaccines. They struggled to acquire doses, many of which were being made by richer nations that have been accused of hoarding them.

China sought to fill those needs. The country’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, traveled through the region in January, promising to help fight the pandemic. In April, he declared that Southeast Asia was a priority for Beijing. About a third of the 33 million doses that China has distributed free worldwide were sent to the region, according to the figures provided by Bridge Consulting.

Much of Beijing’s focus has been directed at the more populous countries, such as Indonesia and the Philippines, and its longstanding allies like Cambodia and Laos.

Indonesia was China’s biggest customer in the region, buying 125 million doses from Sinovac. The Philippines obtained 25 million Sinovac shots after the president, Rodrigo Duterte, said he had turned to Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, for help. Cambodia received more than 2.2 million of China’s Sinopharm doses. It has inoculated roughly 41 percent of its population, achieving the second-highest vaccination rate in the region, after Singapore.

Then, signs started emerging that the Chinese vaccines were not as effective as hoped. Indonesia found that 10 percent of its health care workers had become infected with Covid-19 as of July, despite being fully vaccinated with the Sinovac shot, according to the Indonesian Hospital Association.

In July, a virologist at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok said a study of people who had received two doses of the Sinovac vaccine showed that their level of antibodies, 70 percent, was “barely efficacious” against the Alpha variant of the coronavirus, first detected in Britain, or against the Delta variant, first detected in India.

Article source: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/20/business/economy/china-vaccine-us-covid-diplomacy.html

E-commerce

July’s spending numbers also likely reflected dampened e-commerce sales, because Amazon’s Prime Day promotions, which can drive online spending in the summer, took place in June this year instead of July. Credit card spending data declined 1.3 percent in July from June, a drop that analysts at Bank of America attributed last week to a fall in online spending.

Sales at nonstore retailers, which include e-commerce businesses, fell 3 percent in July, the Commerce Department said. Sales are shifting month to month as the economy’s unsteady reopening continues.

“It is possible that if the Covid surge continues and consumers remain cautious, we will see a rotation back from people spending outside to spending online,” said Joseph Song, a senior U.S. economist at Bank of America.

Restaurants and bars

Despite concerns that consumers are rethinking their return to in-person shopping and dining as cities and states are forced to slow reopening plans, sales of clothing and clothing accessories, as well as spending at restaurants and bars, were up about 3 percent.

“People are still going out and spending at bars and restaurants because it’s summer and you can sit outside. You feel safer outside,” Ms. Bovino said. “The big question is what is going to happen in September, when we have to go back indoors.”

What’s next?

Some retailers shrugged off the July sales report. Walmart, which said on Tuesday that revenue rose in the three months that ended in July, offered optimistic guidance, saying it expected U.S. sales to increase 5 to 6 percent for the year.

Analysts at Bank of America saw a pullback in travel spending in the first week of August, according to credit and debit card data, which they attribute to the rise in coronavirus cases. They expect e-commerce sales to rise again. “Spending at nonstore retailers should bounce, but services spending will be weaker,” they said in a note.

Ms. Bovino had a similar outlook, saying she expected a slowdown in sales in the fall. “We’ve been seeing a transition away from large durable-good items to consumer-facing services, but that could stall because of the virus,” she said.

Article source: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/17/business/economy/july-2021-retail-sales.html

E-commerce

July’s spending numbers also likely reflected dampened e-commerce sales, because Amazon’s Prime Day promotions, which can drive online spending in the summer, took place in June this year instead of July. Credit card spending data declined 1.3 percent in July from June, a drop that analysts at Bank of America attributed last week to a fall in online spending.

Sales at nonstore retailers, which include e-commerce businesses, fell 3 percent in July, the Commerce Department said. Sales are shifting month to month as the economy’s unsteady reopening continues.

“It is possible that if the Covid surge continues and consumers remain cautious, we will see a rotation back from people spending outside to spending online,” said Joseph Song, a senior U.S. economist at Bank of America.

Restaurants and bars

Despite concerns that consumers are rethinking their return to in-person shopping and dining as cities and states are forced to slow reopening plans, sales of clothing and clothing accessories, as well as spending at restaurants and bars, were up about 3 percent.

“People are still going out and spending at bars and restaurants because it’s summer and you can sit outside. You feel safer outside,” Ms. Bovino said. “The big question is what is going to happen in September, when we have to go back indoors.”

What’s next?

Some retailers shrugged off the July sales report. Walmart, which said on Tuesday that revenue rose in the three months that ended in July, offered optimistic guidance, saying it expected U.S. sales to increase 5 to 6 percent for the year.

Analysts at Bank of America saw a pullback in travel spending in the first week of August, according to credit and debit card data, which they attribute to the rise in coronavirus cases. They expect e-commerce sales to rise again. “Spending at nonstore retailers should bounce, but services spending will be weaker,” they said in a note.

Ms. Bovino had a similar outlook, saying she expected a slowdown in sales in the fall. “We’ve been seeing a transition away from large durable-good items to consumer-facing services, but that could stall because of the virus,” she said.

Article source: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/17/business/economy/july-2021-retail-sales.html

Ms. Yellen has repeatedly praised Mr. Powell’s performance.

“He’s doing extremely well,” she told The New York Times in early 2020, discussing Mr. Powell’s conduct as he came under attack from the Trump White House.

But Mr. Powell has opponents among more progressive groups. He often deferred to the Fed’s vice chair — a Trump appointee — for supervision when it came to regulation, regularly voting for tweaks to bank and financial rules that chipped quietly away at postcrisis financial reforms. He has also been criticized by climate focused groups for being too slow to elevate the Fed’s role in policing environment-related finance. Climate activists plan to protest at the Fed’s annual symposium this year in Jackson, Wyo., and Mr. Powell “will be a key target,” Thanu Yakupitiyage, head of U.S. communications at 350.org, said in an email. The group is one of the protest’s key organizers.

Regulation and climate are key reasons some Democrats are lining up behind Ms. Brainard, the Fed governor and another leading candidate. Ms. Brainard, who also has a good relationship with Ms. Yellen, opposed Trump administration efforts to lighten bank oversight by loudly dissenting against a spate of regulatory decisions, often releasing meticulous statements detailing where they went awry.

She is seen as a powerful and effective Fed governor, one who played a key role in shaping pandemic response programs. And while they are closely aligned on monetary policy, she has distinguished herself from Mr. Powell by pushing for a bigger role for the Fed on climate issues and a more proactive stance toward developing a digital currency.

She also could help to anchor a leadership team that could usher in a fresh era for the Fed, her supporters argue.

Andrew Levin, a former Fed economist, is one of several people who are pushing the idea that the White House appoint Ms. Brainard as chair and Sarah Bloom Raskin, a former top Fed and Treasury official, to the central bank’s top regulatory job. Mr. Levin, now a professor of economics at Dartmouth, would also favor nominating as vice chair Lisa Cook, a professor from Michigan State University who has researched racial disparities and labor markets and has worked to improve diversity in economics.

Article source: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/16/business/economy/yellen-powell-federal-reserve.html

Marvin Alexander, a makeup artist in New York City who decided to shift from the fashion industry to bridal during the depths of the pandemic, is also seeing lots of last-minute bookings, including from rescheduled weddings. The events are often more modest affairs, with smaller wedding parties and guest lists, in a nod to virus risks.

“I’m starting to see a few people being more comfortable about 2022, even with the Delta variant strong on our heels,” Mr. Alexander said.

On the other end of the spectrum, Magdalena Mieczkowska, a wedding planner, has seen demand in the Hudson Valley and Berkshires take off for big events in 2022. And clients are willing to spend: Her average was typically $100,000 per event, but now she’s seeing some weekends come in at $200,000 or more.

“People were postponing, and now they have more savings,” she said. Plus, vendors are charging more for catered meals and cutlery rentals. “Everyone is trying to make up for their financial losses from the 2020 season.”

Wedding industry experts said they expected demand to remain robust into 2023 before tapering back to normal, as new bookings vie for resources with delayed weddings like the one Ariana Papier, 31, and Andrew Jenzer, 32, held last weekend in Richmond, Mass., a town in the Berkshires.

The couple had to cancel their original June 6, 2020, date, opting to elope instead, but rescheduled the event to Aug. 7, complete with signature cocktails (a bush berry Paloma and an Earl Grey blackberry Old-Fashioned), a dance floor and s’mores.

“We’re calling it a vow renewal and celebration,” Ms. Papier said just ahead of the ceremony, adding it was the couple’s third attempted venue, thanks to pandemic hiccups.

“Third and best,” she said. “We are so excited.”

Article source: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/13/business/economy/coronavirus-weddings-economy-.html

Fed officials are willing to look past the elevated readings specifically because they are expected to be, as central bankers often say, “transitory.” They would worry more about a generalized, economywide pickup in prices that happens year after year, chipping away at consumer paychecks and potentially influencing how businesses and households live their economic lives.

But policymakers are still eager to see their expectation for an inflation slowdown borne out.

A “narrative for why the current supply and demand constraints might be expected to ease over time strikes me as a reasonable baseline,” Esther George, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, said in a speech Wednesday after the report, while emphasizing that the “narrative would be incomplete without acknowledging the risks.”

Ms. George pointed to the rise in coronavirus infections tied to the Delta variant, which could keep supply chains kinked, and to household savings, which could keep consumers spending strongly and economic conditions “tight.”

Economists have flagged other forces that could sustain inflation. Goldman Sachs noted in a recent research note that revised-down production schedules at automakers suggest that some price pressures in the car industry could last into the fall. Shipping experts report continued delays and cost increases, which could also feed into consumer prices.

And moderation alone is not enough to take the pressure off the Fed and White House: Policymakers need a substantial cool-down. July’s 0.5 percent monthly increase was less rapid than the 0.9 percent gain from May to June, but if the current pace continued for a year, inflation would pick up by nearly 6 percent on an annual basis. That could leave consumers with substantially less purchasing power.

Fed officials will be watching for signs that today’s price increases are getting locked into consumer and business expectations, which could make them more lasting.

Wage increases and inflation expectations offer key signals about the future of inflation. If pay takes off on a sustained basis, employers may find that they need to charge more to cover their expenses. Likewise, if consumers and businesses start to expect rapid price increases, they may be more willing to accept higher prices, setting off a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Article source: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/11/business/economy/july-2021-consumer-price-inflation.html

The legislation also includes tougher scrutiny by the I.R.S. on cryptocurrency. But a last-minute lobbying push by the industry to water down the language succeeded, resulting in a scaling back of the new requirements.

Still, the provision is projected to raise $28 billion over a decade.

New resources for underserved communities — but far fewer than the president wanted.

As the United States remains battered by both the toll of the coronavirus pandemic and an onslaught of wildfires, droughts, floods and other weather calamities, the legislation seeks to target its support toward underserved communities historically in need of additional federal support.

But while Mr. Biden had called for $20 billion for projects designed to help reconnect Black neighborhoods and communities of color splintered or disadvantaged by past construction, the legislation includes just $1 billion, half of which is new federal funding, over five years for the program. The legislation also creates a new $2 billion grant program to expand roads, bridges and other surface transportation projects in rural areas.

The bill would increase support for tribal governments and Native American communities, creating an office within the Transportation Department intended to respond to their needs. It would provide $216 million to the Bureau of Indian Affairs for climate resilience and adaptation for tribal nations, which have been disproportionately hurt by climate change. More than half of that money, $130 million, would go toward “community relocation” — helping some Native communities move away from vulnerable areas.

It would also help improve access to running water and other sanitation needs in tribal communities and Alaska Native villages, with lawmakers determined to take care of all existing project needs.

“We are still in an extreme deficit when it comes to our tribal communities,” Ms. Murkowski said in a speech on the Senate floor, adding that the funding level was “unprecedented.” “We’ve got to do right by our Native people.”

A major investment in closing the digital divide.

Alongside old-fashioned public works projects like roads, bridges and highways, senators have included $65 billion meant to connect hard-to-reach rural communities to high-speed internet and help sign up low-income city dwellers who cannot afford it. Other legal changes seek to stoke competition and transparency among service providers that could help drive down prices.

Article source: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/02/us/politics/infrastructure-bill.html

The company’s problems have been building for years, but lenders, big investors and home buyers alike are treating it as though it is about to fail. By one estimate, Evergrande owes more than $300 billion. Creditors are not sure it can pay the bills. Business partners have filed lawsuits.

Property in China is prone to big swings. Speculative buying propels prices to soar. Local governments then step in to cool things down, sometimes with a heavy hand. Despite the ups and downs, the residential real estate market is still the largest store of Chinese household wealth.

For Xu Jiayin, Evergrande’s billionaire founder, the wild ride has mostly followed one trajectory: up.

A former steel factory technician, he founded Evergrande in 1996 just as China was embarking on the gargantuan task of moving hundreds of millions of people from the countryside to cities. As property prices climbed with this urbanization, so did Mr. Xu’s wealth.

After publicly listing his company in 2009, he began to expand the business into new areas. Evergrande took control of Guangzhou’s soccer club in 2010 and spent billions of dollars on foreign players. It then moved into the dairy, grain and oil businesses. At one point, it even tried pig farming.

As the business grew, Mr. Xu was able to attract tens of billions of dollars in funding from foreign and domestic investors and cheap loans from Chinese banks. The success came with strong political connections. A member of China’s People’s Political Consultative Conference, an advisory body to the central government, Mr. Xu is a presence at the most important political gatherings in Beijing every year.

His proximity to power also gave investors and banks the confidence they needed to keep lending to the company. Over the years when regulators have stepped in to try to curtail Evergrande’s business, they have usually eased off soon after. By 2019, Mr. Xu was one of the richest property developers in the world.

Article source: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/10/business/economy/china-evergrande-debt-property.html

For those reasons, Mr. Daly recommends investors allocate more of their portfolios to cash. Yes, it will pay almost no interest, and so the saver will lose money in inflation-adjusted terms. But that money will be ready to invest in riskier, longer-term investments whenever conditions become more favorable.

Similarly, Rick Rieder, the chief investment officer of global fixed income at BlackRock, the huge asset manager, recommends that investors focused on the medium term build a portfolio that combines stocks, which offer upside from rising corporate earnings, with cash, which offers safety even at the cost of negative real returns.

“It’s surreal,” Mr. Rieder said. “This is one of those periods of time when the fundamentals are completely detached from reality. Where real rates are today makes no sense relative to the reality we live in.”

The Fed, besides keeping its short-term interest rate target near zero, is buying $120 billion in securities every month through its quantitative easing program, and is only now starting to talk about plans to taper those purchases. That has the effect of putting an enormous buyer in the market that is bidding up the price of bonds, and thus pushing rates down.

Fed officials believe the strategy of keeping easy monetary policy in place even as the economy is well into its recovery will help bring the American job market back to full health quickly. The aim is also to establish credibility that its 2 percent inflation target is symmetric, meaning that it will not panic when prices temporarily overshoot that target.

Many of the people involved in market strategy are less than thrilled with this approach, and the consequences for would-be investors.

“Nominal yields are low because of how much the Fed is buying,” said Ms. Desai of Franklin Templeton. “It’s ludicrous given where we are” with growth and inflation.

Article source: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/09/upshot/terrible-time-for-savers.html