PARIS — Any collapse of the euro risks also squelching growth in global air traffic next year, a scenario that could push airlines into a collective loss of more than $8 billion — the worst since the 2008 financial crisis, an industry group said Wednesday.
The International Air Transport Association said airlines were finishing 2011 in an already weakened position, as sluggish economic growth in many countries saps demand for air cargo and high fuel costs continue to eat into profit margins.
Still, the Geneva-based group, which represents most global carriers, said it would maintain its forecast for combined profits of $6.9 billion in 2011.
“The biggest risk facing airline profitability over the next year is the economic turmoil that would result from a failure of governments to resolve the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis,” Tony Tyler, the I.A.T.A.’s director general and chief executive, said in a statement.
A recent forecast by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development predicted a full-blown European financial crisis would cut global gross domestic product growth to 0.8 percent in 2012. Based on that, the I.A.T.A. said this had “the potential to cause global industry losses of $8.3 billion.”
Historically, the group said, global G.D.P. growth rates of below 2 percent have resulted in net losses for the airline industry.
“In this scenario, airlines would see growth in passenger demand grind to a halt and a 4.7 percent contraction in cargo markets,” it said. “Both passenger and cargo yields would fall by 1.5 percent.”
European airlines would be hardest hit, accounting for more than half of the total estimated loss, the I.A.T.A. said.
North American carriers would be expected to lose $1.8 billion in 2012, while the losses in Asia could reach $1.1 billion. Middle Eastern and Latin American carriers would each be predicted to lose $400 million, while African airlines would see losses of $200 million.
“This admittedly worst-case — but by no means unimaginable — scenario should serve as a wake-up call to governments around the world,” Mr. Tyler said.
Even if European leaders manage to avert a renewed financial crisis, it is likely that Europe would experience at least a brief recession, the I.A.T.A. said. In that case, the group forecast that profits would shrink by 50 percent in 2012 to $3.5 billion.
Despite seeing rapid growth in passenger traffic this year, European airlines are in a challenging position heading into the slowdown.
Fierce competition between low-cost carriers and traditional airlines is intensifying and squeezing already narrow profit margins. Europe’s carriers are expected to generate a collective profit of just $1 billion in 2011, down from a previously forecast $1.4 billion.
In the best case scenario, those figures will likely slip into losses of $600 million in 2012, the I.A.T.A. said, adding that falling demand would likely be exacerbated by expected increases in taxes charged to passengers. In a worst-case of a euro collapse, Europe’s airlines would be expected to see losses of $4.4 billion.
British Airways on Tuesday blamed an increase in Britain’s airport departure tax for its decision to cut back a planned 2012 expansion to its schedule that would have involved the recruitment of 800 new staff members.
If a full-blown crisis is avoided in Europe, global passenger demand would be expected to grow by 4 percent next year, slightly below the long-term annual average of around 5 percent, the I.A.T.A. said.
North American carriers, which are expected to see profits of around $2 billion this year, would likely generate slightly lower profits of $1.7 billion in 2012.
The Asia-Pacific region, which has been spared the brunt of the global slowdown, is expected to earn $3.3 billion in 2011, although that would likely slip to $2.1 billion next year under the best-case scenario.
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