November 14, 2024

Archives for 2015

Moscow lawyers up to take Kiev to court over debt

“There’s no doubt that Kiev won’t pay,” Medvedev said on Monday at the meeting of Cabinet ministers. He added that Russia should recover Ukraine’s debt along with penalties.

He said the repayment deadline expired on December 20, signifying Ukraine is in default.

Kiev still has a 10-day grace period during which it could pay the debt without penalty, said Medvedev.

“But due to the statements from Ukrainian officials, they are not planning to do that. Accordingly, a de facto default will happen in 10 days,” added the Prime Minister.

He also said he had signed a decree to introduce economic measures (starting from January 1) as the economic part of Ukraine’s Association Agreement with the EU kicks in. “We need to protect the Russian market, our producers and prevent the import of goods [from sanctioned EU countries – Ed.] marked as Ukrainian products,” Medvedev said.

On Friday, Kiev imposed a moratorium on Russian debt repayment, saying it was halted until the Ukrainian government “makes restructuring proposals or a relevant court decision comes out.” The announcement came ahead of the December 20 deadline.

Earlier this month, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the Finance Ministry to file a lawsuit against Ukraine if Kiev failed to pay.

In November Putin proposed restructuring Ukraine’s debt. The offer would have delayed Kiev’s default and allow it to repay $1 billion per year for three years, from 2016 to 2018. Moscow demanded guarantees from the US, EU, and international financial organizations on future payments of the Ukrainian sovereign debt. None were given.

Ukraine’s sovereign debt to Russia dates back to a deal between President Putin and former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich struck in 2013 which envisaged Moscow buying $15 billion worth of Ukrainian bonds. In December 2013 Russia bought $3 billion worth of Ukrainian bonds.

Article source: https://www.rt.com/business/326647-medvedev-ukraine-debt-court/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS

Oil prices plummet to 11-yr low as US lifts export ban

December 17, 2015. Russian President Vladimir Putin at the 11th annual news conference at the World Trade Center on Krasnaya Presnya. © Michael KlimentyevWorst of crisis over for Russia, but country needs to adjust to life with cheap crude – Putin

As of 3:00 p.m. GMT Monday, Brent blend was trading at $36.04 a barrel, while US benchmark West Texas Intermediate was at $34.00.

On Thursday, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said that the current US oil inventories stand at 490.7 million barrels, while refineries operated at 92 percent of their capacity in the week ending December 11.

Oil was dealt a double blow Friday, when US President Barack Obama signed a bill to lift the US export ban. The ban was established during the US oil shortages in the 1970s, as part of a bigger deal that included tax breaks for renewable-energy companies and refiners.

“I don’t doubt you’ll see some exports next year. We’re pretty excited about it, but we’ve also got to get the infrastructure in place,” ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance told Bloomberg.

American oil exports are “not going to happen Monday, but within a week or two, you’re going to see contracts be developed and a system come into place,” Representative Joe Barton, a Texas Republican and the House’s chief advocate for ending the export ban, told Bloomberg.

© Oleg PopovRussia continues record oil production – energy ministry

Iraqi Oil Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi said that oil prices could rebound in 2016 on improved global economic growth, in an interview with Assabah newspaper published Monday.

“There is big hope that, in the first half or by the end of next year, oil prices would return to what they were,” he told the Iraqi daily, not specifying a price level.

Oil prices have been under pressure over concerns of global oversupply. OPEC’s output was the highest in over three years at 31.7 million barrels per day in November. Russia’s oil output has continued hovering at post-Soviet record levels in November at 10.779 million barrels per day.

Many oil exporting countries will now have to amend their 2016 budgets. In its federal budget adopted for 2016, Russia was relying on $50 per barrel and 63.3 rubles per dollar. Russian President Vladimir Putin said the budget needs to be adjusted.

Article source: https://www.rt.com/business/326619-oil-prices-brent-us-export/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS

Ukraine defaults on $3bn Eurobond to Russia

“Considering that Russia has refused, despite our efforts, to sign an agreement on restructuring and to accept our proposals, the cabinet is imposing a moratorium on payment of the Russian debt worth $3 billion,” said Yatsenyuk.

The payment is halted “until we make restructuring proposals or a relevant court decision is made,” added the Prime Minister.

Kiev’s moratorium on debt repayment to Russia constitutes default, according to the chairman of the Federation Council International Affairs Committee Konstantin Kosachev.

“According to IMF rules, a moratorium by the Ukrainian government on the $3 billion debt repayment to Russia is in fact a declaration of Ukraine’s default,” said Kosachev.

On Wednesday, The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recognized Ukraine’s debt to Russia as official and sovereign. The sovereign status of the debt means Ukraine would have to declare default if unable to pay.

However, on Tuesday the IMF changed its strict policy prohibiting the fund from lending “to countries that are not making a good-faith effort to eliminate their arrears with creditors.”

The decision was criticized by Moscow, as it will apparently allow the IMF to continue doing business as usual with Kiev even if it fails to pay its sovereign debt to Russia.

READ MORE: IMF recognizes Ukraine’s contested $3bn debt to Russia as sovereign

According to Yatsenyuk, Ukraine has also halted debt repayments by state-owned companies to Russian banks.

“The government is imposing a moratorium on the $507 million debt payment to Russian banks of two Ukrainian companies Yuzhnoe and Ukravtodor. From today all payments are suspended till our [government – Ed.] or a court makes a decision,” Yatsenyuk said.

Late on Thursday, Ukraine’s Ministry of Finance said Kiev couldn’t pay off Russia’s $3 billion Eurobond loan without breaking a debt restructuring deal reached with other international creditors.

The country “remains committed to negotiating in good faith” with Moscow over debt restructuring, said the ministry in a statement.

In August, Ukraine agreed a restructuring deal with a creditor committee led by Franklin Templeton (which owns about $7 billion of Ukrainian bonds) providing a 20 percent write-down on about $18 billion worth of Eurobonds.

Russia refused to participate in the debt restructuring, claiming its bond purchase was a state loan not a commercial one.

In November, Russian President Vladimir Putin offered a three-year restructuring plan for Kiev’s debt, provided loan guarantees were in place from the US, the EU and the International Monetary Fund. Under the offer, Russia would forgo payment this year and Kiev would pay $1 billion a year for the next three years.

The deal fell through after Ukraine’s Western backers were unwilling to provide such guarantees.

Last week, President Putin ordered the Finance Ministry to file a lawsuit against Ukraine if Kiev fails to repay Russia’s $3 billion Eurobond loan within a 10-day grace period after the December 20 deadline.

Ukraine’s sovereign debt to Russia dates back to a deal between President Putin and former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich struck in 2013 which envisaged Moscow buying $15 billion worth of Ukrainian bonds. Russia bought $3 billion worth in December 20, 2013, and the debt was supposed to be redeemed on December 20, 2015.

Article source: https://www.rt.com/business/326409-ukraine-defaults-russian-debt/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS

IMF chief Lagarde to face negligence trial in France

Former French President Nicolas Sarkozy.(Reuters / Gonzalo Fuentes)Sarkozy placed under formal investigation for corruption

Lagarde has been accused of “negligence by a person in a position of public authority.”

Bernard Tapie, a former owner of Marseilles football club was awarded €400 million compensation in a lawsuit against the French bank Credit Lyonnais, which he accused of undervaluing his stake in sportswear multinational Adidas. Lagarde, who was President Sarkozy’s finance minister at the time, sent the case to arbitration and ratified the payout.

“Ms. Lagarde would like to reaffirm that she acted in the best interest of the French state and in full compliance with the law,” said a statement from the IMF.

French investigators have been looking into whether Tapie was offered a deal in return for supporting Sarkozy in the 2007 presidential election and whether Lagarde was acting on his orders.

“A decision like this is incomprehensible. I sent her a text, she was really surprised and very disappointed,” her lawyer Yves Repiquet told Reuters.

The French businessman and politician Bernard Tapie was a key shareholder in Adidas. When he needed cash in 1993, he began to look for buyers of his stake, Spiegel reported. Tapie sold his share to Credit Lyonnais for two billion francs. A few months later, the bank, which then belonged to the state, resold the assets to businessman Robert Louis-Dreyfus for twice the price. Tapie accused Credit Lyonnais of fraud and demanded compensation for lost profits, which was eventually paid out in 2007.

French businessman Bernard Tapie. ©

In 2007, Finance Minister Christine Lagarde intervened in the process and appointed a special committee to resolve the issue. The committee eventually ruled in favor of Tapie and decided to pay him about €400 million.

At the end of June 2013, Credit Lyonnais filed a complaint against the arbitration decision. A court then ordered Tapie to return the €400 million, this went to appeal and in December 2015 this was rejected.

Article source: https://www.rt.com/business/326399-lagarde-tapie-france-trial/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS

Worst of crisis over for Russia, but country needs to adjust to life with cheap crude

“We are aware of the high dependence of our economy on the price of our traditional export products – oil, gas and their derivatives. We proceeded from the fact that the average price for Brent will be $100 per barrel,” said Putin during his annual televised press conference on Thursday.

READ MORE: Crude falls below $35 a barrel for first time since 2009

“When the price dropped from $100 to $50 per barrel we planned the budget considering these figures. Now the price is $38. We are forced to revise again,” Putin said.

© Aly SongGlobal oil glut to persist in 2016 – IEA

Putin said low oil prices have dragged down the Russian economy, but it’s slowly recovering and the worst of the crisis is behind.

“It is a 3.7 percent GDP contraction, 12.3 percent inflation. The real income of the population has fallen, the investment in fixed assets decreased by 5.7 percent. However, statistics show that the crisis in the Russian economy as a whole has passed its peak. From the second quarter, there are signs of stabilization in business activity. In September and October, GDP grew by 0.1-0.3 percent compared to the previous month,” he said.

The President also addressed concerns over using the country’s reserves to fill the hole in the budget left by falling crude prices. In October, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said the nation’s Reserve Fund could be depleted in 2016, forcing the government to dip into its last remaining reserve, the National Welfare Fund.

“Our foreign reserves stand at $364.4 billion. They’ve depleted a bit, but it’s still a very solid figure,” said Putin.

READ MORE: Moody’s changes outlook on Russian bond rating to stable

Later on Thursday, the Central Bank of Russia reported that the country’s international reserves had grown almost $7 billion in the second week of December to $371.2 billion.

According to Russian Economic Development Minister Aleksey Ulyukaev, $40 oil doesn’t threaten stability in the economy, but won’t allow GDP, production and consumer demand to turn positive next year.

In the adopted budget for 2016, the Kremlin was relying on $50 per barrel and 63.3 rubles per dollar.

Article source: https://www.rt.com/business/326280-putin-oil-russian-budget/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS

IMF recognizes Ukraine’s contested $3bn debt to Russia as sovereign

READ MORE: Putin orders Finance Ministry to sue Ukraine over unpaid debt

“In the case of the Eurobond, the Russian authorities have represented that this claim is official. The information available regarding the history of the claim supports this representation,” the IMF said in a statement.

Russia asked the IMF for clarification on this issue after Kiev attempted to proclaim the debt was commercial and refused to accept Moscow’s terms for the debt’s restructuring.

The December 2013 deal, which envisaged Moscow buying $15 billion worth of Ukrainian Eurobonds ($3 billion in the first tranche), was officially struck between Ukraine’s then-head of state President Viktor Yanukovich and President Vladimir Putin. In spite of this fact, some Ukrainian and US officials have been making statements contesting the status of the deal.

The sovereign status of the debt means Ukraine may have to declare default as early as December 20, when the deadline expires – unless Kiev responds to Moscow’s restructuring plan.

READ MORE: Moody’s expects Russia to restructure Ukraine’s debt

The IMF’s decision automatically came into effect on Wednesday evening, as no objections to treating the debt as sovereign had been voiced, TASS reported.

Putin had earlier ordered that a lawsuit be filed against Ukraine if it failed to pay its debt within a 10-day grace period following the deadline. Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said last Wednesday that he didn’t believe Kiev was going to pay.

“I have a feeling that they [Ukraine] will not return anything [to us] because they are crooks,” Medvedev said in an interview with Russian TV channels. “They refuse to return the money and our Western partners not only render us no help, they are actually hindering our efforts.”

Meanwhile, the IMF decided on Tuesday to change its strict policy prohibiting the fund from lending “to countries that are not making a good-faith effort to eliminate their arrears with creditors.”

The decision was criticized by Moscow, as it will apparently allow the IMF to continue doing business as usual with Kiev even if it fails to pay its sovereign debt to Russia.

READ MORE: Moscow wonders if IMF is running a fair game

“We are concerned that changing this policy in the context of Ukraine’s politically charged restructuring may raise questions as to the impartiality of an institution that plays a critical role in addressing international financial stability,” Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov wrote in a Financial Times opinion piece.

Earlier, at the G20 summit in Antalya, Turkey in November, Putin had proposed restructuring Ukraine’s debt. The proposed plan would have delayed Kiev’s default and allow it to repay $1 billion per year for three years, from 2016 to 2018. However, Moscow demanded guarantees from the US, the EU, or a key international financial organization that Ukraine would remain true to its word and follow the plan. Washington officially declined to do so.

READ MORE: US won’t guarantee Ukraine’s debt, Russia to sue if Kiev doesn’t pay up by late December

Article source: https://www.rt.com/business/326167-imf-ukraine-debt-russia-sovereign/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS

Italy vs. Germany: Nord Stream-2 debate splits EU

According to the FT, the Italians say the Nord Stream-2 pipeline, backed by senior members of German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government, contradicts the sanctions policy against Russia. Italy has also reportedly accused Germany of putting its economic needs ahead of the bloc’s collective diplomacy.

German Chancellor  Angela Merkel © StrNine EU countries want to bury Nord Stream-2

“We are strong on sanctions, but on the other hand a number of countries, or companies, are able to double [the size of] Nord Stream,” an Italian official said.

Last week Renzi blocked automatic extension of Russian sanctions. According to the FT, the move was spurred by Italy’s irritation with Germany’s insistence on moving forward with Nord Stream-2.

Analysts point to other reasons for Italy’s irritation. The Italian group Eni was a big investor in the South Stream gas pipeline from Russia. The project was cancelled by Gazprom at the end of 2014 after it met continuous problems with work permissions in Bulgaria. Italy was intended to be the main consumer of South Stream gas.

Because of the cancellation of South Stream, Moscow had plans to reroute the pipeline through Turkey — but Turkish Stream has fallen victim to the tension between the countries over the downing of a Russian jet.

© Christian CharisiusGermany says ditch politics over Nord Stream-2

The Nord Stream-2 pipeline project has become necessary for both Russia and Germany due to the continuing problem of reliability of gas transit though Ukraine. Russian Energy Minister Aleksandr Novak warned Germany and France that Kiev could face a gas shortage this winter. This could result in a gas crisis similar to 2006 which left parts of Europe without heat after Ukraine began to siphon off gas destined for the European market.

In September, Gazprom signed a deal to begin construction of Nord Stream-2. It will include two new pipelines that will deliver an additional 55 billion cubic meters of gas annually from Russia to Germany via the Baltic Sea bypassing Ukraine, the Baltic States and Poland.

These bypassed countries regard Nord Stream-2 as a political project against EU rules. At the same time the President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker has said the project should be considered not as a political issue, but as a commercial one.

Article source: https://www.rt.com/business/326108-italy-germany-nord-stream2-gas/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS

US Congress Republicans agree to lift 40-year ban on oil exports

However, Democrats haven’t confirmed the agreement. Both the House and Senate still must pass it and President Barack Obama must sign it into law.

“We have the best technology, the best oil and over time we will drive out Russian oil, we will drive out Saudi, Iranian,” Republican Representative Joe Barton of Texas told Bloomberg. “It puts the United States in the driver’s seat of energy policy worldwide. It is a huge victory,” he added.

The announcement comes as oil prices plunge to the lows of 2008. WTI was trading one percent lower at $37.02 per barrel as of 11:10am GMT on Wednesday. Brent was down almost three percent at $37.37 a barrel.

Low oil prices have increased the urgency for Congress to lift the ban, according to John Hess, chief executive of American oil company Hess Corporation.

“It would be a function of market conditions,” Hess was cited as saying by the Wall Street Journal. “But I think over time, definitely; if the market signals were there, we would have that option,” he added.

For nearly two years US oil producers have been lobbying Congress to lift the ban on oil exports, claiming it would eliminate market distortions and stimulate the US economy.

The crude export restrictions were introduced in the US in 1975 in the middle of the energy crisis. They followed OPEC’s oil embargo on the US and other countries backing Israel during the Arab–Israeli war of 1973. In the face of embargo-related high oil prices, Washington eased limits on oil imports and ordered an export ban.

The volume of oil production in the United States has almost doubled in the last ten years as a result of the country’s shale oil boom. Statistics from the US Department of Energy show that last December the average daily production reached a record 9.4 million barrels of oil per day. In 2015 production volumes stayed at the same level due to falling oil prices. The total amount of oil pumped this year is estimated at 486 million barrels.

READ MORE: Natural gas prices fall to 14yr low on cheap crude, mild weather

High oil production helped to lower gasoline prices in the US to 2009 levels. The price for gas is less than $2 a gallon in many regions. Gas prices will average $2.36 next year, according to US Energy Information Administration forecasts.

Article source: https://www.rt.com/business/326106-us-oil-export-agreement/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS

‘Shocking’ 2016 predictions: $100 crude, strong ruble

Among the 10 events that could significantly affect next year’s financial landscape analysts see would be oil’s brief but drastic return to $100 per barrel on the back of OPEC’s turmoil.

According to Saxo Bank, the global geopolitical situation will make the Russian ruble the most successful currency in 2016. The ruble is predicted to rise 20 percent against the US dollar by the end of next year.

Here are the rest of Saxo Bank’s “outrageous predictions“:

The euro will become a “stronger currency and not a weaker one” in the euro/dollar pair, according to the report. “The race to the bottom has gone full circle, meaning we are back to a weaker US dollar again as the direct outcome of US interest rate policy.”

Late 2016 will see a series of aggressive rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. It would trigger a huge selloff in all major bond markets similar to the Lehman Brothers scenario.

American politics will go through dramatic changes with the Republican Party seeing weakness over its internal struggle, and Democrats retaining the presidency and retaking Congress in 2016.

“Silicon Valley’s unicorns brought back down to earth,” meaning that startups will delay monetization and tangible business models in exchange for adding users and trying to achieve critical mass.

Silver will regain public confidence in 2016, rallying by a third and leaving other metals behind. “The political drive towards reducing carbon dioxide emissions by supporting renewable energy will add to increased industrial demand for the metal.”

The upcoming Olympics in Brazil will boost emerging markets (EM). “Stabilization, investment spending on the Olympics, and modest reforms will see sentiment rebound in Brazil, with EM exports helped by cheaper local currencies.”

Saxo Bank also predicted the strongest El Nino in 2016 surging inflation as it “will cause moisture deficits in many areas of southeast Asia and droughts in Australia.” It also forecasted inequality’s “last laugh” on luxury with an unemployment rate of over 10 percent in Europe.

READ MORE: ‘Shocking’ Saxo Bank 2014 predictions: How real?

Last year’s “Outrageous Predictions for 2015” from Saxo Bank included Russia’s default, a volcanic eruption in Iceland, subsequent drop in yields in Europe, the devaluation of the Chinese yuan and a record increase in the price of cocoa.

The “predictions” are meant in fun, with the bank’s official position differing.

“I do expect that the average price of oil next year will be much higher than the present $35-$37 range. For me, oil over the next 10 years will trade basically at $40 to $60,” Chief Economist at Saxo Bank, Steen Jakobsen told RT on Wednesday. He added that the average price of oil in 2016 will be probably at $50 a barrel.

Article source: https://www.rt.com/business/326097-saxo-bank-predictions-2016/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS

Germans take over 14 Greek airports in privatization deal

The €1.23 billion contract gives a 40-year lease to the Frankfurt airport operator Fraport. The German firm could upgrade and operate a cluster of airports, including those on the popular tourist islands of Corfu, Mykonos, Rhodes and Santorini.

Fraport chief executive, Stefan Schulte called the deal a “win-win” for “Greece and its people.”

“The project underscores the extensive know-how that Fraport will be able to provide at these 14 aviation gateways which are vital for Greece’s economy and, in particular, its huge international tourism sector,” Schulte said.

 “It’s a very significant development and a strong message, in all directions, that the Greek economy is winning the trust of markets and entering the road toward growth,” said Stergios Pitsiorlas, the head of Greece’s privatization agency.

The privatization deal with Fraport was agreed last year but final negotiations were frozen when Syriza came to power in January. It goes against Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’ pre-election promise not to privatize the country’s infrastructure. The idea was strongly opposed by Syriza’s left platform which accused the coalition of “surrendering” public assets.

READ MORE: Athens strikes deal with creditors to unlock €12bn – minister

Around €3 billion in revenue has been raised in Greece through privatizations over the last six years. In terms of the current bailout program, the Greek government has to raise an additional €6.2 billion from selling or awarding management contracts for state-owned assets in the next three years. The measure aims at reducing national debt and increasing investment.

On Tuesday night the Greek Parliament will vote on the latest package of economic measures which is widely expected to be passed. If approved it would unlock the next €1 billion in bailout funds.

Greece’s two biggest unions GSEE and ADEDY have already called on workers to rally in central Athens against the so-called austerity measures.

Article source: https://www.rt.com/business/325977-greece-airports-privatisation-bailout/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS