May 19, 2024

Archives for January 2015

New Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis steps in with looming multibillion-euro debt

Greek economist Yanis Varoufakis (C) is seen outside the Syriza party headquarters in Athens, late January 25, 2015 (Reuters / Alkis Konstantinidis)

Greek economist Yanis Varoufakis (C) is seen outside the Syriza party headquarters in Athens, late January 25, 2015 (Reuters / Alkis Konstantinidis)

There will be tough talking ahead for the new Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis. He’ll have to enact the newly-elected government’s pledge to end the austerity measures and writing off a large part of the country’s debt.

Varoufakis is a 53-year-old economist with Greek-Australian nationality. He is taking the reins of the economy labeled the ‘sick man of Europe’ with a total debt of €317 billion, more than 50 percent youth unemployment, and 20 percent of the population living below the poverty line.

He says the new government is seeking to reform the current system, first by destroying the oligarchy, ending the ‘humanitarian crisis’ in Greece, and recalculating the country’s debt to the ‘troika’ of international lenders.

The new finance minister succeeds two centrist technocrats who oversaw the imposition of austerity measures demanded by the European Commission, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund.

“We are going to destroy the basis upon which they have built for decade after decade a system, a network that viciously sucks the energy and the economic power from everybody else in society,” Varoufakis told Britain’s Channel 4 television ahead of the Sunday elections.

Yanis Varoufakis describes himself as ‘an atheist theologian ensconced in a Middle Ages monastery,’ as he stands against budget austerity and suggests that market-friendly structural reforms would solve Greece’s debt difficulties.

He has been a longtime critic of Europe’s handling of the economic crisis. Varoufakis says the risks it faces threaten to undermine the region’s democratic foundations and breaking the eurozone apart. “A cynical transfer of banking losses onto the shoulders of the weakest taxpayers cannot be a solution to the issue,” he said in a blog post early in January, announcing his candidacy for parliament.

An active media commentator, Varoufakis described the bailouts of struggling eurozone countries as ‘fiscal waterboarding’ that threatened turning Europe into ‘a form of Victorian workhouse.’

Varoufakis considers Greece’s joining the euro in 2001 a mistake, and says Europe must change its concept of battling the crisis or risk plunging into pitch-dark deflation and stagnation.

The new finance minister spent most of his life teaching in academia in Britain, Australia and the US. He left the University of Texas ahead of the elections to join Tsipras’ campaign.

The left-wing Syriza party won Sunday’s parliamentary election with the majority of votes and, therefore, the right to form its own government.

READ MORE: ‘5yrs of humiliation, suffering over’: Anti-austerity party to form govt in Greece

The Greek crisis started in 2010 and the country’s debt reached €317 billion. The continuous and deep economic recession resulted in a high unemployment rate, increasing property taxes and a low minimum wage.

Now the new government is expected to hold negotiations on Greek debt repayment with its international lenders. Syriza said it would abandon austerity measures in favor of its own program to repay the national debt.

The uncertainty over the political and economic situation has resulted in cautious discussions on the outcome, including the country’s possible exit from the eurozone.

International rating agency Standard and Poor’s warned the new government it could downgrade its sovereign credit rating earlier than planned.

Article source: http://rt.com/business/226623-greece-cdebt-finance-minister/

S&P downgrades Russia’s credit rating to junk

Reuters/Brendan McDermid

Reuters/Brendan McDermid

US-based credit rating agency Standard Poor’s has cut Russia’s sovereign rating to BB+, leaving it below investment grade for the first time in a decade. Moscow termed the decision “overly pessimistic.”

“The downgrade reflects our view that Russia’s monetary policy flexibility has become more limited and its economic growth prospects have weakened. We also see a heightened risk that external and fiscal buffers will deteriorate due to rising external pressures and increased government support to the economy,” said a statement from the agency.

The ruble fell from 66.3 to over 69 per dollar. As it experienced downward pressure through the early hours of Monday, the Russian currency has now fallen by over 8 percent since the previous trading day.

Russia’s Finance minister Anton Siluanov said S P’s move was “overly pessimistic, and did not take into account the strengths of the Russian economy.” Among its advantages he listed Russia’s considerable foreign currency reserves, a positive balance of payments, and low levels of state debt. The official urged investors to “avoid dramatizing the situation.

In contrast, in their breakdown, SP analysts drew up a bleak future for Russia’s economy, which is predicted to shrink this year.

“We project that the economy will expand by about 0.5% annually in 2015-2018, below the 2.4% of the previous four years,” says the report.

READ MORE: Russian Central Bank voids Standard Poor’s, Moody’s, Fitch ratings

It blames both the “structural problems” of Russia’s economy, and the cycle of Western sanctions and counter-sanctions imposed since the succession of Crimea from Ukraine last March.

“We see this muted projected growth partly as a legacy of a secular economic slowdown that had already begun before the recent developments in the Ukraine. It also reflects a lack of external financing due to the introduction of economic sanctions and the sharp decline in oil prices.”

The fall in credit ratings makes it more difficult for Russia to borrow money on the international markets, and may have wider ramifications for its financial system. Russian companies, both state-owned and otherwise, may struggle to repay their loans, while many investors without a remit to speculate in risky conditions may withdraw from the Moscow stock markets.

The government may have to step in to rescue key national corporations. The Russian Central Bank has promised to inject 1.2 trillion rubles (US$18 billion) into the country’s banking system to steer away from a full-fledged crisis.

READ MORE: No chance of state default in Russia – Deputy PM

“Credit ratings are meaningless in a situation when the international capital markets are closed off to Russian companies,” said a statement from oil and gas giant Rosneft, one of the companies targeted by sectoral sanctions adopted against Russia in the summer over the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine. Majority state-owned Rosneft insisted it was feeling “confident.”

Russia’s Central Bank announced last week that in its internal assessments it would ignore any ratings issued by the Big Three Western ratings agencies – Standard Poor’s, Fitch, and Moody’s – that were issued after March 2014.

It said that all credit ratings given to Russian companies and banks will now be at the discretion of the board of directors of the bank. The regulator will assess whether or not the ratings made after March are accurate. The decision came after Fitch and Moody’s had downgraded Russia’s sovereign debt to just above junk status.

Moscow and Beijing announced their intention to create a rival rating agency to SP’s, Moody’s, and Fitch later this year. The two countries are already partnered through the Universal Credit Ratings Group (UCRG), which was set up in Hong Kong in 2013 and already encompasses the most respected agencies from both countries, as well as the US-founded Egan-Jones Ratings Company. The new agency may be an expanded version of UCRG, which is still predominantly used by internal Chinese investors.

READ MORE: New credit rating agencies to balance ‘Big Three’, China says

Russia’s foreign currency reserves stand at a respectable $380 billion – the sixth biggest in the world – and sufficient to finance any immediate obligations. But the Russian Central Bank has been forced to burn the money keeping the ruble afloat, and budget shortfalls due to oil prices may also have to be covered from the coffers.

Article source: http://rt.com/business/226435-standard-poors-rating-junk/

​Oil can recover to $200 if supply dries up – OPEC head

OPEC Secretary-General Abdullah El-Badri (Reuters / Heinz-Peter Bader)

OPEC Secretary-General Abdullah El-Badri (Reuters / Heinz-Peter Bader)

World oil prices have reached the bottom and will soon bounce back, said OPEC Secretary General Abdullah el-Badri, adding that they can go as high as $200 a barrel if lower investment erodes supply.

“Now the prices are around $45-$55 and I think maybe they reached the bottom and will see some rebound very soon,” Badri is quoted by Reuters.

At the same time, he once again said that the current decline in investment could cause a significant energy shortage in the future and therefore a price rise.

“Suppose we cut production, and then we’ll have spare capacity,” he said. “Producers when they have excess capacity they will not invest.”

READ MORE: Plunging prices force oil majors to cut billions in spending

He added that the lack of investment can lead to a shortage of supply in about 3-4 years, which in turn can lead to a repetition of 2008, when prices rose rapidly.

“Maybe we will go to $200 if there is a real shortage of supply because of the lack of investment,” he said, not specifying the time frame.

Talking about possible changes in OPEC policy, Badri said the cartel needs four to five months to make a decision on its future course, as time is needed to see how the market will behave.

Badri is sure that the latest events in Saudi Arabia won’t affect the oil market. “Saudi Arabia is a stable country, is a stable government, and I think things will be normal.”

READ MORE: Saudi Arabia expected to keep oil policy unchanged

Last week Iraq said it hoped the oil price had hit bottom and won’t fall below the current average, as it is currently producing more than any other OPEC member.

READ MORE: Iraq hopeful oil has hit ‘bottom’

Oil prices have fallen nearly 60 percent since June 2014, with Brent crude now at $48.49 a barrel at 6:20pm MSK and WTI at $45.41.

Article source: http://rt.com/business/226363-oil-price-recover-soon/

Weak euro fuels German business confidence to 6-month high

A trader works at his screen at the Frankfurt stock exchange January 26, 2015 (Reuters / Kai Pfaffenbach)

A trader works at his screen at the Frankfurt stock exchange January 26, 2015 (Reuters / Kai Pfaffenbach)

Business confidence in Germany has perked up to a 6 month high, as weak oil prices have increased exports and created more spending power. The more positive outlook follows the ECB decision to inject €1.14 trn into the money supply over the next 2 years.

Germany’s Ifo Business Climate index, which looks at the confidence of 7,000 firms, increased to 106.7 points in January, up from 105.05 points in December, the third monthly increase in a row, the research center said in a statement Monday. Participating companies cover a wide range of industries, manufacturing, construction, wholesale, and retail.

“Stronger impulses are expected from exports thanks to the falling euro exchange rate,” Ifo President Hans-Werner Sinn said in the statement.

In 2014, the Germany economy expanded by 1.5 percent, beating the German Ministry of Economic Affairs forecast of 1.2 percent.

The data marks a strong turnaround from earlier forecasts that spelled doom and gloom for business sentiment.

In December, the index fell to a 6-month low, and in August, at an even gloomier 13-month low.

READ MORE: German business confidence shattered, lowest in 13 months

“The German economy has got off to a good start to the year,” the head of the country’s top think tank said.

The euro opened the week at a 11-year low against the dollar after Syriza swept elections in Greece, promising to fight against the EU policy of austerity. The euro fell to €1.11 to the dollar before recovering to €1.12 at the time of publication.

Article source: http://rt.com/business/226299-german-business-confidence-january/

Euro hits 11yr low after ‘anti-austerity’ Syriza election win

An electronic board displaying stock prices at the Athens Stock Exchange reception hall (Reuters / Alkis Konstantinidis)

The election result in Greece has pushed the euro to an 11yr low, falling below €1.11 to the dollar for the first time since 2003. Investors soured as anti-austerity party Syriza won a majority promising to renegotiate Greek debt and end austerity.

Shared by Greece and 18 other eurozone members, the euro fell 8.94 percent to €1.1105 per 1 USD on the opening of trading Monday as investors and creditors are worried the new government will fail to pay off the country’s €317 billion debt.

The euro has lost 7.7 percent against the dollar this year, making it the worst performer of all the hard currencies.

After the immediate aftershock, it strengthened to €1.12 to the dollar.

Source: Bloomberg

“Syriza’s victory is a European victory against austerity,” the leftist party’s leader, Alexis Tsipras, said after clinching victory Sunday.

The party, the first to win a national election on an anti-austerity platform since 2008, has campaigned on the promise to end austerity and renegotiate the terms of its bailout package with its Troika of lenders- the European Central Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the European Commission.

On Sunday, Syriza gained 36.5 percent of the popular vote in the parliamentary election, but is 2 seats short of winning an absolute majority, meaning it cannot act alone, and needs to seek support from other political parties.

‘EU destroying own people’

So far, Greece has received €240 billion ($269 billion) in bailout funds, with the first big tranche paid out in 2010, and the second in 2014. Greece was the first EU country to seek financial assistance from European lenders to help the government pay its creditors, after the 2008 crisis exposed the country’s massive overspending and budget deficit.

The economic ‘haircut’ has meant major budget cuts and tax increases, which after six years of deep economic recession, have only just started to boost economic growth.

“The EU was destroying its people of one its member states with the idea of trying to save it. Nothing worked, the country is in a catastrophe,” Leonidas Chrysanthopoulos, a former Greek diplomat, told RT.

Syriza has promised to change all of that, pledging immediate relief to the poor, rolling back unpopular taxes and negotiating a debt write-down with the country’s creditors to free up spending on social programs. Proposed reforms include cutting taxes for the middle class and crack down on the rich, as well as raising the minimum monthly wage by 29 percent. Tsipras also guaranteed to provide free electricity and food subsidies for poor families, as well as free healthcare for the uninsured and unemployed.

‘A European problem’

The next hurdle will be €7 billion in bonds held by the ECB that mature in July and August. Greece doesn’t have the cash to repay them, and failure to do so could ultimately lead to Greece’s exit from the eurozone.

“Debt is not just a Greek problem. It is not even just a problem of the south, the countries of the EU periphery. It is a European problem,” Syriza MEP Professor George Katrougalos, told RT.

Katrougalos thinks Greece deserves the same help that ‘southern’ countries like Greece and Spain gave Germany over sixty years ago. In 1953, half of German war debts (16 billion marks) were annulled to help its economy recover.

“If we have an EU divided and countries that cannot pay their debt, and countries like Germany are gaining from that, we have a union that can no longer keep its cohesion,” Katrougalos said.

What’s next?

Eurozone finance ministers will hold a scheduled meeting in Brussels Monday, with Greece expected to top the agenda. The EU has signaled it will be able to handle a Greece exit from the single currency union.

Last Thursday, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi announced that Europe would embark on a US-style stimulus program, injecting a total of €1.14 trillion into the economy over the next two years.

READ MORE: ECB announces milestone €1.14trn ‘easy money’ program

However, the bank said it will not buy any Greek government bonds (debt) as a part of this program until at least July, when Greece is due to repay some of its debt to the ECB.

Article source: http://rt.com/business/226183-euro-11-year-low/

​Plunging prices force oil majors to cut billions in spending

Reuters / Todd Korol

Reuters / Todd Korol

The world’s leading oil companies are reported to be planning a $28 billion cut in capital spending by 2017 to keep debt at a sustainable level at a time when oil prices continue to fall.

Investment in exploration and development of oil and gas fields could drop by 20 percent by 2017 compared to last year, say analysts at Morgan Stanley as quoted by the FT.

The possibility is growing as a number of the largest oil companies are yet to report on the sharp fall in earnings.

Shares in the largest US and European companies ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell, Total, BP and ConocoPhillips have dropped between 4 and 24 percent since crude prices fell over 50 percent from $115 a barrel in June 2014.

All of the listed companies, except Shell, are expected to report falls of 19 percent to 57 per cent in their fourth-quarter earnings.

They will have to cut overall expense by $170 billion, or 37 percent, to maintain net debt at the levels of 2014, assuming a price of $60 a barrel for Brent crude, which is now trading well below the 2014 average of $99, said a report by analysts Wood Mackenzie.

“Lower oil prices pose the biggest threat to oil and gas industry earnings and financial solidity since the financial crash of 2008,” the report warned.

More oil companies are expected to follow with job cuts after BP and ConocoPhillips decided to curtail projects in the North Sea, as part of wider budget reductions.

READ MORE: 35,000 oil gas jobs at risk as crude price tumbles – study

The fourth-quarter earnings for a wider group including Italy’s Eni, Brazil’s Petrobras and Russia’s Rosneft, would be “severely impacted” by plummeting oil price, falling 39 percent from 2014, said Iain Reid at BMO Capital Markets to the FT.

Article source: http://rt.com/business/226191-oil-giants-cut-spending/

Russia’s economy ‘ill’, but ‘virus’ is manageable

Bank VTB president, chairman of the board and chairman of the Supervisory Board Andrei Kostin. (RIA Novosti/ Sergey Guneev)

The Russian economy is suffering from certain economic problems such as low oil prices and sanctions, but they are not chronic, just more like a virus that’s quick to cure, Andrey Kostin, head of Russia’s second biggest bank VTB told RT.

“I think, the Russian economy is ill. And I compare it with illness when you have some chronic disease, when there are some structural problems and some virus. The virus is low oil price and sanctions. And, I think, virus is easy to cure or at least relatively quick to cure. Structural reforms and chronic diseases are much more difficult and take longer to cure,” Kostin told RT at the Economic Forum in Davos.

Russia’s economic ‘virus’ is ‘manageable,’ as the country still has massive currency reserves and can pay its external debt, the VTB head said.

“I don’t see a drastic threat for the Russian economy,” Kostin added.

However, the situation will worsen and now Russia needs to learn to live in a new reality.

“I think, we lived in a little bit of a lavish style over the last few years because the beginning of the new century was quiet successful. The Russian economy was growing very fast, oil prices were very high. I think, we have to adjust our policy now and conduct reforms,” the banker said.

Talking about the effect of sanctions, Kostin acknowledged that business has changed for his bank, but they are now actively looking for alternatives.

“We have, of course, reviewed our policy because the open markets are closed for us, we don’t have access to the capital market, we don’t have access to the debt market, to a very big extent. Of course, we are looking for alternatives, for example-for the Chinese or the Gulf market,” he said.

The critical issue for the Russian economy now is to bring down its key interest rate, hiked to 17 percent in an attempt to stop speculations on the ruble and cap inflation. But higher interest rates always translate into higher loans to firms and individuals, which can seriously eat into economic growth.

“Of course the main source for capital and liquidity is the Russian Central bank and the Russian Government. The bank is in position to fulfil the major task to provide more loans for the Russian economy, and now the most important thing is to bring down the interest rate because 17 percent is extremely high for the Russian economy. The sooner we do it, the better,” Kostin concluded.

Article source: http://rt.com/business/225939-russia-economy-vtb-davos/

​Big investor interest in Russia, despite pressure

Rusal president Oleg Deripaska. (RIA Novosti/Sergey Guneev)

Western investors are eager to strengthen business ties with Russia and are seeking new opportunities despite external pressure, Russian tycoon and Rusal president, Oleg Deripaska, told RT in Davos.

“I think there is a lot of pressure not to increase, I would say, Russian risk profile versus reward, but still we have a lot of interest and people ask what opportunity will it be for them, what kind of opportunity they would have now because of oil price and they could see the other sectors which may grow,” he said in an interview with RT’s correspondent Murad Gazdiev.

Recently Western rating agencies have been heaping pressure on Russia with SP, Moody’s, and Fitch keeping its investment grade one notch above the ‘junk’ status. Next week SP is expected to revise Russia’s rating and there are fears it could be downgraded to non-investment level.

READ MORE: Downgrade fears prompt Russia to consult with rating agencies

Deripaska’s Rusal business is ready to make up for all the losses they face amid sanctions and the falling ruble, he said.

“We’ve been quite cautious and [can] refinance everything, but still, we are very diversified in export industry, utility, and domestic manufacturing,” he said.

However, the tycoon believes more action is needed from Russia to diversify its economy and overcome the crisis.

“We need the central bank to become more reasonable and accept that there is no chance for Russia to sit and wait for the next three years waiting for oil to come back. It means action, we need money to fill the economy,” he said.

Deripaska is convinced the West is unlikely to expand sanctions, because businesses and governments have separate roles and pursue separate interests.

“There is business that wants more profit, there are politicians who care about employment, opportunity,” he said.

Talking about the current Ukrainian conflict, Deripaska said there would soon be a new set of politicians to offer a new course and new opportunities for business.

Russian authorities need to combine all their efforts to elaborate a joint strategy at all levels in order to boost domestic economic growth. Then they will be able to solve Russia’s economic problems quickly and efficiently.

“We just need to be patient and do our homework, we need to force our economy to grow,” he said.

“We need to show that we have domestic consumption and that we have a program jointly accepted by the Russian central bank and the government, and they shouldn’t talk differently in the same panel, because otherwise people think we don’t have a joint approach and this is what we should overcome.”

Article source: http://rt.com/business/225911-investors-interest-russia-cooperation/

​’Sanctions always hurt wrong person,’ open dialogue needed

Reuters/Christian Hartmann

Sanctions are an ineffective instrument that hurt economies and ordinary people. What the West and Russia really need is to maintain cooperation and be open for a new way of dialogue, experts told RT at the forum in Davos.

“I think sanctions always hurt the wrong person and, in principle, I’m against sanctions, not only against Russia but against other countries,” said Frank-Jürgen Richter, Chairman of Zurich-based Horasis. “What we really need now is a new way of dialogue where Russia can sit together with Europe and the US, and I hope in 2015 we will see a bit of a positive change.”

Richter noted a negative trend that Russian and Western companies have become more reluctant to deal with each other. However, he said that large Western enterprises are still keen on investing in Russia and such an attitude is essential for further economic development.

“We shouldn’t abandon our investment activities, because Russia needs the West and the West, more importantly, needs Russia,” he said.

Open dialogue is key in resolving the differences between Russia and the West, agrees Philippe Monnier, executive director of the Greater Geneva Berne area Economic Promotion Agency.

“In Switzerland we are very open to dialogue, we are a neutral country, we really try to be useful to everybody,” he said. “I think we have a very big openness of dialogue despite a difficult situation.”

He said a sanction war put Switzerland between two stools, as the country wanted neither to lose its established economic partner Russia, nor become a place to bypass Western restrictions.

“We have a long term friendship between Russia and Switzerland. As you know, we haven’t applied the sanctions as such,” he said. “We still don’t want to be the place for circumventing the sanctions, but we’re not applying the sanctions. So I think the Swiss investors are much more interested in all the countries to consider Russia.”

READ MORE: Switzerland will only sanction Russia if UN does – ambassador

Andrew Likierman, dean of the London Business School, believes that although Russia is going through hard times, it won’t lose long-term investments.

“Of course, in the short-term, there’ll be an issue with sanctions and a feeling of instability around the oil price, but my sense is that serious investors will know these are downs, but downs are followed in the economics by ups,” he said. “I’m really confident for the long term that these investing relations will be solid.”

If you’re doing business, you cannot completely ignore the politics, he said. However, he is sure that serious investors won’t turn their back on Russia.

“Russia is a very important player on the world stage. You do not walk away from big players,” Likierman concluded.

Article source: http://rt.com/business/225867-sanction-hurt-wrong-person/

Record high Chinese imports of Russian oil in 2014

Reuters / Stringer

Reuters / Stringer

Chinese imports of oil from major OPEC countries fell last year, while the purchases of Russian oil saw a record increase, said the Chinese General Administration of Customs. It is part of Chinese plans to diversify its oil sources.

Last year, the share of Saudi oil in the Chinese market fell 8 percent and the volume from Venezuela dropped 11 percent (below 20 million tons), while the share of Russian oil leapt 36 percent, the equivalent to 665,000 barrels a day, General Administration of Customs said Friday in a report.

Saudi Arabia remains China’s largest supplier with 49.67 million tons of exports in 2014, or 997,000 barrels a day, the least since 2010.

READ MORE: Saudi Arabia expected to keep oil policy unchanged

Russia surpassed Oman as China’s third-largest supplier in 2014 and sold crude roughly at $103 a barrel, according to the customs data.

The agreement with Rosneft signed in 2013 could make China Russia’s biggest crude export market by 2018. Oil flows to China through the East Siberia-Pacific Ocean pipeline which could increase supplies to 20 million tons a year by 2017.

Rosneft obtained $2 billion in loans from the China Development Bank and advanced payment for part of the oil deliveries.The flow of Russian oil to China may exceed 50 million tons annually by 2020, Wood Mackenzie’s Sushant Gupta told The Wall Street Journal.

“China’s surging imports from Russia is mostly a reflection of their oil supply contracts that would continue to grow for decades to come,” Gao Jian, an analyst at SCI International, a Shandong-based energy consultant, told Bloomberg. “China is already on track to diversify crude purchases and with its oil demand stabilizing, imports from its traditional suppliers will be displaced.”

By purchasing more oil from Russia, China reduces dependence on maritime oil supplies from the Middle East that is subject to interruptions due to the weather.

In November 2014, Saudi Arabia significantly reduced its official price to Asian buyers to its lowest since 2008. The move was made to keep market share in the region with the fastest growing demand. December cargoes were sold at $75 a barrel, and that’s compared with the full-year average of $101.50.

Meanwhile Saudi Arabia remains the main supplier for the whole of the Asian continent and accounts for 70 percent of its demand, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

Article source: http://rt.com/business/225687-saudi-oil-china-russia/