May 20, 2024

Archives for December 2014

​Saudi Arabia confident oil prices will rise, won’t cut output

Saudi Arabia's Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi (AFP Photo)

Saudi Arabia’s Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi (AFP Photo)

The Saudi oil minister announced that he was sure that crude oil prices would rebound, blaming the recent price slump on speculators and a lack of cooperation by non-OPEC member oil producers.

Ali al-Naimi pledged that Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil producer, would not cut production, despite what countries outside of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) have done in response to falling prices. The minister said that the market would stabilize on its own.

“If they want to cut production they are welcome: We are not going to cut, certainly Saudi Arabia is not going to cut,” he said Sunday at an energy forum in Abu Dhabi.

He assured the Arab energy leaders at the conference that fossil fuel “will remain the main source of energy for decades to come.”

Saudi Arabia’s large reserves enable the kingdom to easily weather the lower oil prices, while other producers including Iraq, Iran, Russia, and Venezuela need prices substantially higher than current ones in order to meet budget goals. Saudi Arabia and OPEC, however, have decided against cutting production in order to drive prices up.

“The best thing for everybody is to let the most efficient produce,” he said.

David McNew / Getty Images / AFP Photo

Al-Naimi argued that “lack of cooperation from non OPEC producers, lack of information, along with misinformation, and sinister motives of speculators” were responsible for the five-year oil price low. The price of crude oil nose-dived to below $60 a barrel this month.

The minister also vehemently denied that Saudi Arabia had any part in a conspiracy to bring down market value of oil in order to harm other countries. Earlier this month, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani blamed the sharp drop of global oil prices on “treachery,” by the oil-rich kingdom and one of its main international foes.

“I want to say from this podium that talk about a Saudi conspiracy has no basis of accuracy at all and points to a misunderstanding,” Al-Naimi said.

Article source: http://rt.com/business/216515-saudi-no-production-cuts/

​Bulgaria ready to issue South Stream permits

AFP Photo / Bulphoto

AFP Photo / Bulphoto

Bulgaria is ready to issue all the necessary permits for the construction of the South Stream pipeline, according to Prime Minister Boyko Borisov. He said it will up to Gazprom whether the pipeline is built or not.

Borisov said he has the full support and understanding of the European Union and that Bulgaria is not in the wrong and should not suffer financial consequences for stopping the project, the Bulgarian news agency BGNES reports.

Bulgaria was set to reap $600 million per year in transit fees, and investment on the Buglarian side was estimated at 3.5-4 billion euros.

Russia was originally planning to build a pipeline to Southern Europe to directly export gas, but EU legislation was used to continually delay the project. On December 1 during a visit to Turkey, Putin announced the pipeline would run through Turkey to Greece, instead of Bulgaria as originally proposed.

“Thus, our country is now able to fulfill its obligations on the preparatory activities, particularly for the offshore part of the pipeline, and to issue a building permit,” Borisov said.

The Prime Minister added that, “if Gazprom stops the project, despite the permits, it will be considered guilty and not Bulgaria.”

A Bulgarian government delegation reportedly planned to fly to Moscow this week to clarify the situation over South Stream construction.

READ MORE: Why Putin pulled the plug on South Stream project

Russian Energy Minister Aleksandr Novak and the Energy Minister of Bulgaria Temenujka Petkova are expected to hold telephone talks on South Stream Friday.

On December 1 Russian President Vladimir Putin and head of Gazprom Aleksey Miller said Russia was calling off construction of South Stream because the EU had impeded the project. Instead, Russia and Turkey agreed on a new pipeline to Turkey via the Black Sea with the annual capacity of 63 billion cubic meters.

Countries involved in the project reacted immediately, saying they would suffer multibillion dollar losses. Bulgaria has been maintaining it considered the project operational and was waiting for official notification South Stream is cancelled.

READ MORE: EU companies face €2.5bn in losses over South Stream abandonment

Serbian Foreign Minister Ivica Dacic repeated Friday he was deeply disappointed about Russia’s decision.

“This is a project in which all of us are invested together in economic and energy terms. Serbia needs this project as it guarantees energy security for the country,” Dacic said during a meeting with Russian FM Sergei Lavrov.


Article source: http://rt.com/business/215983-bulgaria-permit-south-stream/

Russia to provide banks with billions to fight off crisis

Anton Siluanov.(AFP Photo / Nicholas Kamm)

Anton Siluanov.(AFP Photo / Nicholas Kamm)

Banks in Russia will get a government boost to finance debt and projects as the country risks recession. On Friday, the State Duma passed the last two readings of a law to allocate up to 10 percent, or $6.54 billion, from a sovereign wealth fund.

The law is essentially a bank bailout from the Ministry of Finance.

Once the bill is signed into law, Russia’s largest state-owned banks, Sberbank, VTB, VTB 24, Gazprombank, the Russian Agriculture Bank, and Bank of Moscow, as well as private banks such as Alfa-Bank, UniCredit Bank, and Rosbank (Societe General) will be eligible for loans, but no final list has been drawn up.

Many of the banks are sanctioned, and therefore are locked out of Western capital markets.

Credit institutions with more than $1.7 billion (100 billion rubles) in capital will be eligible for the money which will be transferred as bonds and equity.

Another piece of legislation is aimed at helping banks recapitalize through federal loan bonds (OFZ) worth up to $16.1 billion (1 trillion rubles).

“First of all, we will support systemically important banks, so that economic transactions will be provided for. [Those banks-Ed.] are the main holders of deposits, the main transactions are carried out in those [banks],” Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov told reporters, as quoted by Reuters, on Thursday

“It’s not real money, and not just budget expenditures, but funds in securities,” Siluanov said.

The move will turn Russia’s expected 0.5-0.6 percent surplus relative to GDP in 2014 to a 0.8 percent deficit to GDP, the finance minister said.

The decision comes as Russia faces its biggest currency crisis since 1998.

Reuters / Maxim Zmeyev

READ MORE:1998 and 2014: Russian crisis in perspective

Russia has two sovereign wealth funds that together hold $172 billion as of December 11, 2014. The National Wealth Fund (NWF) and the Reserve Fund (RF). These state wealth funds serve as rainy day coffers for the government to use at its discretion, and were built up over the years mostly due to high oil revenues.

Another option the Russian government is considering to help stave off recession is tapping into pension funds, according to Economy Minister Aleksey Ulyukaev.

Not just banks are looking to get state help during the tight economic times for Russia. Oil and gas companies, which are losing money because of low oil prices, are likely to get a helping hand from the state.

Rosneft, Russia’s largest oil company has asked for $3.3-4.2 billion (200-250 billion rubles). The company has already asked for $40 billion, which the government rejected. The company, along with Gazprom, the nation’s biggest gas utility, together have to pay off debts of $90 billion in 2015.

The Russian government has about $150 billion of debt it needs to redeem in 2015, much of which is foreign held. Sanctions now bar many state-owned Russian credit institutions from borrowing long-term from Western capital markets.

In March 2013 Rosneft acquired BP-TNK in a $55 billion deal, most of which was financed with new debt, leaving little liquidity for new projects.

Gazprom has recently committed to building 2 major pipelines to China, both estimated to be multibillion dollar projects.

Novatek, Russia’s second largest gas producer, also under US sanctions, is asking for $2.5 billion (150 billion rubles) from the NWF, which the company may get as soon as the first quarter of 2015, according to Deputy Economic Development Minister Nikolai Podguzov.

Article source: http://rt.com/business/215899-russia-banks-minfin-laon/

Russia to supply banks with up to $6.54bn to fight off crisis

Anton Siluanov.(AFP Photo / Nicholas Kamm)

Anton Siluanov.(AFP Photo / Nicholas Kamm)

Banks in Russia will get a government boost to finance debt and projects as the country risks recession. On Friday, the State Duma passed the last two readings of a law to allocate up to 10 percent, or $6.54 billion, from a sovereign wealth fund.

The law is essentially a bank bailout from the Ministry of Finance.

Once the bill is signed into law, Russia’s largest state-owned banks, Sberbank, VTB, VTB 24, Gazprombank, the Russian Agriculture Bank, and Bank of Moscow, as well as private banks such as Alfa-Bank, UniCredit Bank, and Rosbank (Societe General) will be eligible for loans, but no final list has been drawn up.

Many of the banks are sanctioned, and therefore are locked out of Western capital markets.

Credit institutions with more than $1.7 billion (100 billion rubles) in capital will be eligible for the money which will be transferred as bonds and equity.

Another piece of legislation is aimed at helping banks recapitalize through federal loan bonds (OFZ) worth up to $16.1 billion (1 trillion rubles).

“First of all, we will support systemically important banks, so that economic transactions will be provided for. [Those banks-Ed.] are the main holders of deposits, the main transactions are carried out in those [banks],” Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov told reporters, as quoted by Reuters, on Thursday

“It’s not real money, and not just budget expenditures, but funds in securities,” Siluanov said.

The move will turn Russia’s expected 0.5-0.6 percent surplus relative to GDP in 2014 to a 0.8 percent deficit to GDP, the finance minister said.

The decision comes as Russia faces its biggest currency crisis since 1998.

Reuters / Maxim Zmeyev

READ MORE:1998 and 2014: Russian crisis in perspective

Russia has two sovereign wealth funds that together hold $172 billion as of December 11, 2014. The National Wealth Fund (NWF) and the Reserve Fund (RF). These state wealth funds serve as rainy day coffers for the government to use at its discretion, and were built up over the years mostly due to high oil revenues.

Another option the Russian government is considering to help stave off recession is tapping into pension funds, according to Economy Minister Aleksey Ulyukaev.

Not just banks are looking to get state help during the tight economic times for Russia. Oil and gas companies, which are losing money because of low oil prices, are likely to get a helping hand from the state.

Rosneft, Russia’s largest oil company has asked for $3.3-4.2 billion (200-250 billion rubles). The company has already asked for $40 billion, which the government rejected. The company, along with Gazprom, the nation’s biggest gas utility, together have to pay off debts of $90 billion in 2015.

The Russian government has about $150 billion of debt it needs to redeem in 2015, much of which is foreign held. Sanctions now bar many state-owned Russian credit institutions from borrowing long-term from Western capital markets.

In March 2013 Rosneft acquired BP-TNK in a $55 billion deal, most of which was financed with new debt, leaving little liquidity for new projects.

Gazprom has recently committed to building 2 major pipelines to China, both estimated to be multibillion dollar projects.

Novatek, Russia’s second largest gas producer, also under US sanctions, is asking for $2.5 billion (150 billion rubles) from the NWF, which the company may get as soon as the first quarter of 2015, according to Deputy Economic Development Minister Nikolai Podguzov.

Article source: http://rt.com/business/215899-russia-banks-minfin-laon/

Europe must decide if it wants gas via Turkey- Putin

Reuters / Vitaliy Ankov

Reuters / Vitaliy Ankov

The new hub on the Turkish-Greek border could deliver Russian gas to Europe, but this will depend on negotiations with European countries, Russian President Vladimir Putin said at his annual press conference with media.

Putin’s 2014 QA marathon LIVE UPDATES

“To a big extent, this depends on European countries. Whether they would like to have stable, absolutely guaranteed, risk free energy supply from Russia, which they need. It will be good if we get it working. Via Greece we can reach Macedonia, and on to Serbia, and then to Baumgartner in Austria. If they are not interested then we won’t do it,” he said.

Russia was originally planning to build a pipeline to Southern Europe to directly export gas, but EU legislation was used to continually delay the project. On December 1 during a visit to Turkey, Putin announced the pipeline would run through Turkey to Greece, instead of Bulgaria as originally proposed.

“There are no supplies, nor will there be any in near future, cheaper and more reliable than those from Russia,” Putin said. Russia provides Europe with one third of their energy needs, and many countries with all of their supplies.

Russia doesn’t want to start a pipeline that the EU doesn’t want to see completed. The EU signaled that the project might not be realized, and as the Ukraine crisis intensified, so did opposition to the Russian pipeline on European soil.

READ MORE: Why Putin pulled the plug on EU-South Stream project

“Bearing in mind that we have not yet received Bulgaria’s permission, we think Russia in such conditions cannot continue this project. I mean we are to begin the construction of the pipeline system in the Black Sea. We cannot begin the construction on the seabed section until we have Bulgaria’s permission,” Putin said.

Russia cannot begin the construction of the seabed section and stop it at the Bulgarian coast. “It is absurd. I think it is obvious,” he said, adding that Russia has been forced to revise its participation in the project.

Gazprom CEO Aleksey Miller has confirmed that the South Stream project has been closed. It was planned to run under the Black Sea to Southern and Central Europe delivering gas to Bulgaria, Serbia, Hungary, Austria, Italy, and Slovenia.

Now, Turkey is the new destination, and Europeans will have to transport the gas from the border on their own, according to Miller.

Turkey is Gazprom’s second-biggest customer in the region after Germany. Their natural gas partnership dates back to 1984.

Article source: http://www.rt.com/business/215619-turkey-gas-europe-putin/

Putin: Russian economy will inevitably bounce back, 2 years in worst case scenario

Russian President Vladimir Putin (RIA Novosti / Vladimir Astapkovich)

Russian President Vladimir Putin (RIA Novosti / Vladimir Astapkovich)

The Russian economy is to start growing again in 2 years in the worst case scenario, President Vladimir Putin said at his annual press conference. Russia, which is facing recession, is ready to fight the impending crisis, as it did in 2008, he said.

READ MORE: Putin’s 2014 QA marathon LIVE UPDATES

“The economy will grow. And our economy will get out of the current situation,”Putin said, adding that he expected the economy to grow by 0.6 percent in 2014. He said the government will handle the crisis similarly to 2008.

In 2008, Russia along with the much of the rest of the world fell into recession, losing 7.8 percent of GDP in 2009. The Russian economy fared the crisis rather well, and the economy was back on track with 4.5 percent growth in 2010.

Russia’s 2014 budget will have a 1.9 percent surplus relative to GDP, despite the turbulent economic situation, the Russian president said.

The ruble has been tumbling along with the price of oil, but Western sanctions account for 25-30 percent of the Russian economic crisis, Putin said. US President Barack Obama plans to sign off on a new round of Russia sanctions by the end of this week.

“The situation in the Russian economy is provoked by external factors and the lack of diversification first and foremost.”

“The economic situation will force us to diversify our economy,” he said, adding that economic adaptation to low oil prices is inevitable.

READ MORE: 1998 and 2014: Russian crisis in perspective

The president said he hoped the ruble’s recovery will persist.

“I hope yesterday and today’s exchange rates will be maintained. Is that possible? Whether oil prices will continue to fall, that is possible too.”

READ MORE: Ruble continues recovery as Putin starts QA

Putin supports the actions the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) has so far taken to stem the ruble crisis, but criticized the bank for not acting quickly enough.

“I believe the CBR and government are taking adequate measures on the situation. There are questions on the time frame of the measures. On the whole, the direction is right, ” he stressed.

On Monday night the CBR sharply increased its key interest rate to 17 percent to try and cap the ruble free fall, and on Wednesday it published a package of measures that are expected to stop the turmoil in the financial markets.

READ MORE: Russian Central Bank hikes key interest rate to 17% to halt ruble roil

Article source: http://rt.com/business/215507-putin-qa-economy-recovery/

Ruble continues recovery hours before Putin’s Q&A

The Russian currency has opened higher Thursday, continuing its recovery from the biggest intraday drop since 1998 default on so-called ‘Black Tuesday’.

The dollar was down 65 kopeks at the opening on the Moscow Exchange, while on the stock market, the dollar-denominated RTS index was up 6.5 percent.

That’s just hours before President Vladimir Putin commences his much-anticipated QA marathon, in which he’s expected to face tough economic questions about the ruble and turmoil in the financial markets.

READ MORE: 2014 QA marathon: Public awaits Putin’s take on watershed year for Russia

On Wednesday, the ruble jumped 6 percent against the US dollar to finish trading at 60.51 against the Greenback. On ‘Black Tuesday’ the ruble dipped to as low as 80 rubles against the US dollar and hit a threshold of 100 against the euro.

READ MORE: Ruble rumble: Currency gains ground after Tuesday trauma

The Central Bank of Russia said it hadn’t intervened in the Russian forex market on Wednesday, after it spent around $2 billion in currency interventions on Monday. That is compared to about $774 million spent in all of November.

Article source: http://rt.com/business/215443-russis-ruble-putin-speehc/

Richard Branson: S. Arabia attacking renewable energy with cheaper oil

Entrepreneur Richard Branson (Reuters / Luke MacGregor)

Entrepreneur Richard Branson (Reuters / Luke MacGregor)

Saudi Arabia’s push to drive down oil prices is not just an attempt to undermine the US shale oil boom, but also the global clean energy industry, Virgin founder Richard Branson has said in an interview with British media.

“They have done it before and it hurt,” the Guardian cited Branson as saying. “They don’t just want to damage the US fracking industry, but also the clean energy business. The collapse of oil prices is going to make it much more difficult for clean energy.”

READ MORE: Oil producers to lose $1tn if price below $60 – Goldman Sachs

Branson, the founder of the venture capital conglomerate Virgin Group, who has invested an estimated $350 million in clean technologies, said that both fracking and renewables had put a drastic dent in the bottom line of oil producing countries over the past few years.

“Before the oil price collapsed, solar was actually cheaper [than oil]. If oil goes down to $30-$40 a barrel, then it will make it much harder for clean energy. Governments are going to have to think hard how to adapt to low oil prices,” he said.

He said it was time for governments who are intent on reducing their carbon emissions to levy a carbon tax on fossil fuel users, which would be offset but the corresponding drop in prices.

“If governments want a carbon tax [at the climate summit] in Paris next year, then it would be the best time. What the clean energy business needs is a gap between it and coal and oil.”

Last month, OPEC, the global cartel of oil producing countries, which includes Saudi Arabia, opted not to cut back on oil production amid plummeting crude prices during its 166th meeting.

OPEC Secretary General Abdalla Salem El-Badri attends at press conference after the166th Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC, at their headquarters in Vienna, Austria on November 27, 2014 (AFP Photo)

Since June, the value of oil has nearly halved, with crude following below $60 per barrel for the first time since July 2009.

Ali al-Naimi, Saudi Arabia’s oil minister, reportedly told fellow OPEC members that a concerted attack on US shale oil was needed to reduce the profitability of North American producers.

“Naimi spoke about market share rivalry with the United States. And those who wanted a cut understood that there was no option to achieve it because the Saudis want a market share battle,” Reuters cited a source who was briefed by a non-Gulf OPEC minister as saying.

On Tuesday, Kuwait’s oil minister Ali al-Omair said OPEC has no intention of intervening to prop up the price of oil.

READ MORE: OPEC won’t cut production even if oil below $40 – UAE energy minister

He added that “[many of] the shale oil and sand oil companies are producing at a cost higher that current oil prices,” AFP reports. When asked if OPEC would meet again if the price of oil dropped to $40 dollars a barrel, he said “there are no plans,” adding that “we will talk about it when the time comes.”

His comments mirrored those made by the United Arab Emirates’ energy minister to Bloomberg on Monday.

“We are not going to change our minds because the prices went to $60 or to $40,” Mazrouei told Bloomberg. “We’re not targeting a price; the market will stabilize itself.” He said that OPEC would have to wait “at least a quarter” before considering an extraordinary session, saying current conditions did not “justify” such a meeting.

The collapse of oil prices has in part led to volatility in the Russian economy. Russia, one of the world’s largest oil producers, was forced to hike interest rates to 17 percent in support of the ruble, which lost as much as 20 percent of its value on Tuesday.

Western-backed sanctions against Russia, which have also trammeled Russia’s ability to get foreign credit, have also contributed to ruble’s recent volatility.

READ MORE: Ruble rumble: Currency gains ground after Tuesday trauma

The Central Bank has expended in excess of $80 billion to prop up the ruble this year, including more than $8 billion since free floating the currency in November.

According to BBC estimates, Russia loses approximately $2 billion in revenue for every dollar fall in the price of oil.

Moscow, however, says it will not cut back its own oil production to ratchet up the price of oil.

Article source: http://rt.com/business/215235-branson-cheap-oil-renewables/

Russia crisis leaves banks around the world exposed by the billions

RIA Novosti

RIA Novosti

Major banks across Europe, as well as the UK, US, and Japan, are at major risk should the Russian economy default, according to a new study by Capital Economics.

The ING Group in the Netherlands, Raiffeisen Bank in Austria, Societe General in France, UniCredit in Italy, and Commerzbank in Germany, have all faced significant losses in the wake of the ruble crisis. On Tuesday, the currency had its biggest fall in a decade and a half, losing 20 percent, nearing the 27 percent drop it experienced in 1998 that led to a default.

Ruble crisis LIVE UPDATES

Overall Societe General, known as Rosbank in the Russian market, has the most exposure at US$31 billion, or €25 billion, according to Citigroup Inc. analysts. This is equivalent to 62 percent of the Paris-based bank’s tangible equity, Bloomberg News reported.

Following the drop, Raiffeisen, which has €15 billion at risk in Russia, saw its stocks plummeted more than 10 percent. Raiffeisen also has significant exposure in Ukraine, which is facing a similar currency sell-off as Russia.

Source: Capital Economics

Many Russian companies borrow money from European and American banks, but now the value of their domestic currency has decreased by more than 50 percent against the dollar, so the cost of the loans has doubled in ruble terms.

But the Russian Central Bank, flush with foreign cash reserves, can help these companies out.

“The current ruble crisis does not have any material impact on Russia’s ability to service foreign debt obligations,” Chris Weafer, partner at MacroAdivsory in Moscow, wrote in a note on Wednesday.

READ MORE: 1998 and 2014: Russian crisis in perspective

The Russian economy is nowhere near default. The Central Bank has more than $400 billion in foreign currency reserves, unlike the last time when they defaulted in 1998, when they only had $16 billion.

“There is no risk of default amongst the major banks or industrial companies. Reserves are adequate and the weak ruble boosts the outlook for trade and the current account surplus for 2015,” Weafer said.

Article source: http://www.rt.com/business/215299-russia-crisis-european-banks/

1998 and 2014: Russian crisis in perspective

ZIL-5301 truck manufactured at the Open Joint Stock Moscow Company “Likhachev Automotive Plant” serving as a store “on wheels” on one of the Moscow streets 06/01/1998 (RIA Novosti)

Russian banks have warned against hysterically jumping to the conclusion that the current ruble crisis will follow the trajectory of 1998, when the country was forced to default.

The ruble’s spectacular 22 percent plunge on Monday and Tuesday has prompted investors to liken the crisis to 1998, when the ruble lost 27 percent on August 17, 1998. However, these days, Russia’s balance sheet is strong enough to weather the ruble sell-off.

On Tuesday, the ruble grazed the 80 ruble to the US dollar benchmark. Compared to its price of 32.9 to the dollar on January 1, 2014, it signaled a 58 percent loss in value.

READ MORE: Ruble crisis LIVE UPDATES

In 1998, over a six month period, the currency lost more than 70 percent of its value. Inflation skyrocketed, banks and enterprises across the country collapsed, and Russians were left jobless.

Russia’s GDP took 7 quarters to recover to pre-crisis levels after 1998.

Black Tuesday of 2014, as it’s called, has brought back many similar memories, but the situation has changed greatly, according to experts.

“If you compare this crisis to 1998, the Russian economy is like night and day. In those days we had an eight percent deficit, the economy wasn’t growing, and the country had no reserves. Today, it is running a triple trade surplus and a budget surplus of two percent, and it has more than two years of currency reserves,” Ben Aris, Editor and Publisher of Business New Europe, told RT.

Customers at an Auchan store 12/09/2014 (RIA Novosti)

At the start of December, Russia’s foreign exchange reserves stood at $418 billion, which far exceeds the $16 billion Russia had saved up ahead of the 1998 default.

“Our previous crises were absolutely different. Now we have more than enough reserves to provide the necessary tools needed to fully extinguish the crisis,” Aleksey Devyatov, an analyst at UralSib Capital in Moscow, told RT.

In 1998, the Central Bank performed currency interventions to prop up the ruble, but eventually exhausted them to a point they couldn’t meet its key debt obligations.

“In 1998 we were in shambles, now we are in pretty good shape,” Sberbank CIB analyst Vladimir Pantyushin told RT.

“I think we should consider default a risk, but reserves are certainly high enough to withstand current pressure,” he said, adding that the free floating ruble gives the Bank more flexibility.

“The danger now is that Russian people will panic and rush to the banks and withdraw their money, and that will destabilize the banking and financial sector. This would be a full-blown financial crisis,” Aris said.

After meeting with Central Bank ministers and government officials on Tuesday Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev also concluded Russia will have enough reserves to ride out the crisis.

READ MORE: Russia has enough resources to reverse ruble crisis – Medvedev

The Central Bank has worked out a new strategy to stabilize the financial market including measures to increase foreign exchange refinancing and selling off foreign currency if necessary.

Devyatov says another option the Central Bank has is to make funds available to Russian companies, possibly $20-30 billion of credit, so they can meet their financial obligations. This move would act as a temporary internal ‘bailout’, but the banks would be expected to return the loans, it wouldn’t be a free pass. The Central Bank outlined this in their strategy, but didn’t list specific figures.

The bank will also continue to exercise its REPO option which allows it to balance the Russian ruble, but will not use reserve currencies.

The attempt to quell the ruble crisis by increasing interest rates backfired, causing more panic, forcing the currency to drop 20 percent.

“The rate hike was ineffective and now the Central Bank has to follow through with big currency interventions,” Aris said.

Reuters / Jonathan Alcorn

Oil or ruble collapse?

The 1998 ruble crisis, like today, was driven by falling oil prices, which went as low as $18 in August 1998. At the time of publication, Brent crude was trading at $59.19 per barrel, a more than 50 percent decrease since June 2014.

The Russian government originally based its budget plan on $100 barrel oil, and later revised it to $80.

Aris still sees a strong correlation between the two, and says we are seeing an oil, not ruble collapse.

“This is more of an oil collapse than a ruble collapse, because the Russian federal budget is heavily dependent on oil prices,” he said.

Falling oil has pushed the ruble, since traders and investors have created trends and algorithms where the two move together. Russia needs a reversal of this trend in order for the ruble to stabilize, according to Vladimir Pantyushin.

“There is no magical link between oil and the ruble. Even though they move together in trade, if you look deeper, it hasn’t always been this way,” Pantyushin said.

As of late, the ruble has been falling faster than oil, signaling Russia is facing more serious economic challenges ahead besides oil.

In the last six months, the ruble has been in rapid descent congruent with falling oil prices, which accelerated in November and December. Investors have been pulling capital out of Russia over geopolitics, and the US and EU sanctions have made it difficult for Russia to borrow from Western capital markets.

Article source: http://rt.com/business/215255-russia-ruble-1998-2014/