May 20, 2024

Archives for September 2013

Tale of ‘White Widow’ Fills British Press

There is no evidence so far, the police and security forces say, that Samantha Lewthwaite, the widow of one of the four suicide bombers who devastated London in July 2005, was involved in the Kenya attack, let alone was its “mastermind,” as the British papers are wont to suggest.

But it is also true that some of those who survived the massacre at Nairobi’s Westgate shopping complex said they thought they heard a woman speaking English among the attackers belonging to the militant Shabab Islamist group, most of whom are Somali.

Even the president of Kenya, Uhuru Kenyatta, speaking on television Tuesday night after the four-day standoff at the mall had ended, mentioned talk of a white British woman. “Intelligence reports had suggested that a British woman and two or three American citizens may have been involved in the attack,” said Mr. Kenyatta, adding, “We cannot confirm the details at present, but forensic experts are working to ascertain the nationalities of the terrorists.”

But his interior minister, Joseph Ole Lenku, and spokesmen for the Shabab, who have claimed responsibility for the massacre, said no women were involved in the operation.

Speculation rose higher on Thursday when Interpol issued a “red notice” for Ms. Lewthwaite’s arrest, requiring its 190 member countries to detain her pending extradition.

The Times of London said in a headline, “Worldwide Terror Hunt for the ‘White Widow,’ ” while The Sun, the tabloid owned by Rupert Murdoch, showed a photograph of her as a schoolgirl and said: “The angel-faced British girl who last night became … World’s Most Wanted.”

Unfortunately for the story line, however, the red notice was issued in response to a Kenyan request concerning events nearly two years ago, not the Nairobi attack. The notice said she was wanted by Kenya “on charges of being in possession of explosives and conspiracy to commit a felony dating back to December 2011” as part of a suspected plot to bomb cities along the Kenyan coast at Christmas.

Michael O’Connell, director of operational support for Interpol, based in Lyon, France, said that the issuing of the red notice was “a coincidence” resulting from an open investigation. “We’re at the stage where the details of this case and this individual have been able to be released publicly,” he told BBC World Service radio. “There are other people with red notices.”

But the red notice did indicate a heightened level of alert. Ms. Lewthwaite had previously been sought only by South Africa on suspicion of obtaining a fraudulent passport under the name Natalie Faye Webb.

Ms. Lewthwaite has now achieved “a semimythical status,” said Raffaello Pantucci, a terrorism expert at the Royal United Services Institute, a British research organization specializing in defense and security. But he, too, emphasized that there was little concrete evidence linking her to the Nairobi attack.

About 200 Britons are fighting alongside Islamist rebels in Syria and 100 in Somalia, Mr. Pantucci said. “Even if the numbers are small, it only takes one person to blow things up,” he said. “Foreign fighters are the umbilical cord that links the battleground to the home country.”

Valentina Soria, a counterterrorism expert at IHS Jane’s, a defense consultancy, said the Shabab had been trying to recruit foreigners and Somalis in the United States and Europe for three years “to offset the loss of domestic support.”

Ms. Soria pointed to Michael Adebolajo, 28, who on Friday pleaded not guilty to the gruesome murder of Lee Rigby, an off-duty soldier, in London last May, as one Briton who tried to travel to Somalia to fight alongside the Shabab.

Ms. Lewthwaite, a youthful convert to Islam, is the widow of Germaine Lindsay, who blew himself up on a London Underground train on July 7, 2005, killing 26 people as part of a larger attack that killed 52 and wounded hundreds.

The daughter of a former British soldier, Ms. Lewthwaite was born in Northern Ireland and grew up in the market town of Aylesbury, northwest of London. Raj Khan, a local councilor who knew the family, described her as “an average, British, young, ordinary girl” who suffered, he said, from a lack of confidence. “That’s why I find it absolutely amazing that she is supposed to be the head of an international criminal terrorist organization,” he said.

She met Mr. Lindsay, who was born in Jamaica, on an Internet chat forum when she was 17, two years after she converted to Islam. She studied religion and politics at the School of Oriental and African Studies in London. The couple married in 2002 and moved back to Aylesbury in 2003.

After the 2005 attacks, she said, “I totally condemn and am horrified by the atrocities which occurred in London,” and praised Mr. Lindsay as “a good and loving husband and a brilliant father who showed absolutely no sign of doing this atrocious crime.” She said her husband had fallen under the influence of radical imams, adding, “How these people could have turned him and poisoned his mind is dreadful.”

She was pregnant with their second child at the time. She has three children, ages 7 to 12, the youngest with her second husband, a Kenyan.

Little was heard about her until March 2012, when her name surfaced in a Kenyan investigation into suspected plans to bomb coastal cities during the Christmas holidays. The authorities said they suspected she had rented houses in Mombasa to assemble a bomb and was working with Musa Hussein Abdi, who was shot and killed in Somalia in June 2011. In December 2011 or January 2012, the police found a woman they believed to be Ms. Lewthwaite in his house, but let her go after she showed them a South African passport, now believed to be fake. She is thought to have then fled to Somalia.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/28/world/africa/tale-of-white-widow-fills-british-press.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Race to End for ‘Breaking Bad’ Fans Who Got Behind

At the University of Pittsburgh, where Mr. Bauer is studying engineering, students cram into his dormitory lounge every Sunday night to watch the latest episode. But not Mr. Bauer, who was, as of Monday, still about 20 episodes behind. That night, he started binge-viewing so that he can be in the lounge for Sunday’s all-important finale — figuring that if he’s not there to see the ending when everyone else does, someone will spoil it for him.

“My friends are telling me it’ll be the best decision of my life,” he said Wednesday night, without even hitting pause during his marathon to talk to a reporter.

In its final season, “Breaking Bad” on AMC has become the It Show on cable television. All over the country, converts to the series about a mild-mannered teacher turned drug lord have set aside schoolwork, dishes and laundry to try to catch up on old episodes through Netflix, Amazon, iTunes and other Internet services.

The hype around hit television show finales has always been intense, but what has happened with “Breaking Bad” exemplifies a twist in the relationship between the parallel universes of live, linear television (the kind symbolized by Comcast and DirecTV) and on-demand TV (as embodied by Netflix).

On-demand services are typically thought to hurt live television viewing. In this case, they are fueling it.

“Breaking Bad” made its debut in 2008 to an underwhelming 1.2 million viewers — which would have caused many programming chiefs to drop it. But the show dodged cancellation and slowly built a following — especially once the old episodes were made available en masse on Netflix.

By mid-2012, about 2.6 million viewers were watching live episodes; now, as the ending approaches, that total has more than doubled to 6 million, which might be small for a network television show but makes “Breaking Bad” one of the biggest phenomena on cable.

“What’s remarkable about this show is we’ve created urgency to see it,” said Charlie Collier, the president of AMC, which has been running a marathon of every episode since Wednesday.

DVDs and, before that, VHS tapes have allowed audiences to catch up on shows for a long time — in fact, the popularity of “Family Guy” DVDs were partly credited with the 2005 revival of the once-canceled Fox animated comedy. But binge-viewing behavior has become much more pronounced in the last few years, mainly because Netflix and services like it have made it so easy to do.

Last Sunday, as “Breaking Bad” was finally winning the television industry’s highest honor, an Emmy award for outstanding drama, the show set a new ratings record for itself — 6.6 million, according to Nielsen — making it the biggest program on cable that night. At the same time, many people were just starting their marathons. According to Netflix, each day for the last two weeks, the most-streamed episode of the show has been the very first one, during which Walter White crystallized methamphetamine for the first time.

The show’s creator, Vince Gilligan, credited the Internet when accepting his Emmy. “I think Netflix kept us on the air,” he told reporters backstage, adding that he did not believe that the show would have survived more than two seasons without the audience and revenue lifts that Netflix provided, along with online chatter. As first reported by AdAge, the network sought $300,000 to $400,000 for a 30-second ad in the final episode. AMC confirmed on Friday night that the episode was sold out. The network declined to comment on pricing, but assuming it achieved $300,000 a spot, it will be earning more for the airtime than even the highest-rated network dramas normally do.

“It’s a new era in television,” Mr. Gilligan said, “and we’ve been very fortunate to reap the benefits.”

Mr. Bauer is ready for the finale — as of Friday afternoon, he had only five more episodes to watch, and he was saving them for Sunday.

Justin Carroll, a bank employee in Lexington, Ky., started to binge a little bit earlier — Sept. 12 — because he “wanted to be part of the discussion” with his friends.

Judy Weinstein, a human resources consultant in Sherman Oaks, Calif., started on Sept. 22 because of media coverage of the show and a crucial endorsement from a more personal source: her spin class instructor, who would “come to class every Monday morning and talk about how she couldn’t sleep the night before after watching,” she said. Ms. Weinstein is glad she did — although after she finished her marathon on Thursday, there was one downside. “In retrospect, it is a difficult show to binge-watch because it just keeps getting darker and darker,” she said.

Mr. Collier of AMC said that social networking Web sites had amplified all the chatter about the show. (Nielsen estimates that the average person’s Twitter message about a TV show is seen by about 50 other people.) “Word of mouth is still a great thing,” he said.

Netflix’s licensing contracts do not cover the eight most recent episodes of “Bad,” so for those, new fans must rely on AMC, an online rental service or a less legal route. AMC’s marathon has been a big draw this week. In prime time, it had 1.0 million viewers on Wednesday and almost 1.2 million on Thursday. (The totals will increase after digital video recorder viewing is factored in.)

Perhaps aptly for a show about a meth dealer, Melodie Holmes has noticed its addictive tendencies. Ms. Holmes, of Kitchener, Ontario, said she and her husband “generally watch two episodes a night, and look at each other seeing whether or not we could stay awake on a ‘school night’ for more,” she said. More often than not, they stayed up — and now they are all caught up.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/28/business/media/breaking-bad-race-to-the-end.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Premier League Coverage Pays Off for NBC

“How stereotypical,” said Rebecca Lowe, the host of “Premier League Live,” referring to drinking tea as she held a full Royal Wentworth cup.

 Lowe is part of the pervasive British flavor of the NBC Sports Group’s coverage of Premier League soccer, which began last month under a three-year contract. Her tea-drinking co-analysts that day, Robbie Earle and Robbie Mustoe, former players, are also British. All the games are produced in England by Sky Sports, BT Sport or the league, and are called by British announcers. Only the analyst Kyle Martino, a former Major League Soccer player who joins Lowe, Earle and Mustoe in the studio, is American.

In addition to the analysts’ expertise, NBC might be banking on the authenticity and familiarity that British voices and productions bring to the Premier League as the soundtrack for its coverage. But the network has taken an American approach to promoting the group, with billboards in Times Square and a humorous video starring the actor Jason Sudeikis as an American coach in England who does not know the rules of the game. The video promotion has been viewed online by more than 5.7 million visitors.

Lowe was tickled that she has delivered Premier League reports Sundays on NBC’s “Football Night in America” pregame show, bringing Wayne Rooney to an audience far more familiar with Dan Rooney.

“I’ve never been with a company that has invested so much on marketing,” said Lowe, who previously worked for ESPN U.K. and the BBC.

So far, the formula is working. NBCSN’s 22 telecasts have been seen by an average of 391,000 viewers, 70 percent better than the average game last season on Fox Soccer, which carried most of the games, and ESPN and ESPN2, which broadcast about one game a week in a licensing deal. NBCSN, however, has about twice as many subscribers as Fox Soccer. More important, at least to NBC, is that NBCSN’s daily viewership from Aug. 17 to Sept. 22 swelled 67 percent, to 77,000 viewers.

That is still a fraction of ESPN’s 1.2 million in that period and fewer than the month-old Fox Sports 1’s 121,000. But the highs are getting higher. Last Sunday afternoon, 852,000 viewers watched Manchester City trounce Manchester United, 4-1, in one of the Premier League’s marquee early-season matches. That was the biggest audience so far on NBCSN.

John Guppy, a veteran soccer executive who founded Gilt Edge Soccer Marketing, said, “What they’ve done — and it’s not that Fox didn’t do it, but maybe it comes across more directly to consumers — is they’ve made the Premier League feel special and important.”

NBCSN has become the NBC Sports Group’s Premier League centerpiece, filling as many as 40 hours a week on the cable network. Mark Lazarus, chairman of the NBC Sports Group, said the kickoff times of Premier League games, as early as 7:45 a.m. on Saturdays on the East Coast, had helped. Even the day’s latest matches start before American football games begin to dominate the channel lineup.

“They’re largely in windows without live sports,” Lazarus said. “It’s not totally unencumbered, with college football Saturday afternoon and the N.F.L. on Sunday. But the beauty of this league is that it goes from August to May.”

The Premier League’s success has helped Major League Soccer, which also has games on NBCSN. Viewership of the eight M.L.S. games on the network since coverage of the Premier League began on NBCSN has jumped 60 percent, and the number of unique visitors to M.L.S. games streamed by NBC has soared 322 percent. All of that should help M.L.S. in talks to extend its contract beyond next season.

For the NBC suite of networks, the Premier League was a property to covet. NBC wanted to capitalize on the league’s popularity and to breathe oxygen into NBCSN, which will show 154 of the 196 games that the NBC family of networks is televising; NBC is showing 21 games this season, with others on CNBC, USA, Telemundo and Mun2.

Another 184 games, which are not being televised, are available free at Premier League Extra Time, a service available to cable, satellite and telephone subscribers. The entire season of 380 games is being streamed on NBC Sports Live Extra.

Lazarus is politic enough not to declare that NBCSN’s identity has quickly become tied inextricably to the Premier League. That would irk other leagues it carries or longtime properties, like the Tour de France. NBCSN also carries the Olympics every two years.

Still, during an interview here at NBC Sports international broadcast center, Lazarus said: “It’s part of our definition, but you have to put it up with the N.H.L. This adds another pillar product to go with the N.H.L., and I think Nascar will be the third.”

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/28/sports/soccer/premier-league-coverage-pays-off-for-nbc.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Comcast Ordered to Place Bloomberg With TV Peers

The ruling, released late Thursday, asserted that Comcast must include Bloomberg TV in so-called news neighborhoods, a term for locations on a channel lineup with four or more news channels.

It requires Comcast to bring Bloomberg into standard-definition versions of those neighborhoods within 60 days, at least in the biggest cities served by the company.

The F.C.C. decision is a long-sought triumph for Bloomberg, a somewhat obscure business news channel that is owned by Bloomberg L.P., and a setback for Comcast, which owns (through its NBCUniversal division) one of Bloomberg’s more popular competitors, the business news channel CNBC.

It is also a reminder of how much power cable companies have. In Washington, for example, Comcast carries CNBC in standard-definition on channel 39, relatively low on the dial, and Bloomberg on channel 103, where viewers are less likely to stumble upon it. This sort of placement, Bloomberg says, is inhibiting its growth — a common complaint among channel owners.

When Comcast took control of NBCUniversal in early 2011, the government imposed a condition — put forward by Bloomberg lobbyists — that strove to prohibit Comcast from favoring its own news channels over others. Ever since, Bloomberg has been prodding the F.C.C. to force its insertion into news neighborhoods.

Comcast has been pushing back, asserting, among other things, that such a move by the F.C.C. would infringe on its First Amendment rights.

The media bureau of the F.C.C. supported Bloomberg last year, but Comcast appealed to the full commission, prompting Thursday’s affirmation of the original ruling.

Greg Babyak, the head of government affairs for Bloomberg L.P., said the ruling promoted “the availability to the public of diverse sources of news.”

Comcast said it was evaluating its options. Sena Fitzmaurice, the company’s vice president for government communications, said the 2011 condition was being misinterpreted, and “very likely will lead to significant and unwarranted burdens on us, our customers and other programming networks.”

Analysts have said that the F.C.C.’s support of Bloomberg could embolden other news channel owners, like the new Al Jazeera America cable channel, to similarly challenge cable companies.

But it remains unclear how much Bloomberg will actually benefit: one F.C.C. commissioner, Ajit Pai, who dissented in part from the ruling, said “the cure may be worse than the disease” for Bloomberg, because “Comcast may create news neighborhoods consisting entirely of independent news channels,” like C-Span’s trio of channels, and still comply with the condition.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/28/business/media/comcast-ordered-to-place-bloomberg-with-tv-peers.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Consumer Spending Rose Slightly in August

Consumers’ spending on goods and services rose 0.3 percent in August, the Commerce Department said on Friday. That was up from a 0.2 percent gain in July.

Income rose 0.4 percent in August, the best gain since February and up from a 0.2 percent July increase. Private wages and salaries rose 0.5 percent, while government wages and salaries rose 0.2 percent.

The government figures would have been higher if not for forced federal furloughs that reduced wages and salaries by $7.3 billion.

Consumer spending drives 70 percent of economic activity. Many analysts say the increases are not enough to accelerate economic growth in the third quarter from the 2.5 percent annual rate in the April-June quarter.

“With more money coming in, consumers spent a little, just a little, more freely,” said Jennifer Lee, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets.

Americans grew more pessimistic this month about the economy, their own finances and government budget policies, according to a survey of consumer confidence released Friday.

The University of Michigan says its final reading of consumer sentiment dropped to 77.5 in September from 82.1 in August. It was the second straight decline after confidence reached a six-year high of 85.1 in July.

Paul Ashworth, chief United States economist at Capital Economics, said the economy has been growing at an annual rate of 2 to 2.5 percent in the July-September quarter. Still, the pickup in August spending could signal stronger growth in the final three months of the year.

But other economists were less hopeful. Peter Newland, an economist at Barclays, said that the modest increase did not change the bank’s forecast for growth, at a 1.7 percent rate.

There are some signs that consumers may be better positioned to step up spending soon.

The number of people seeking unemployment benefits has sunk to its lowest point in six years because few companies are laying anyone off anymore. That has led some economists to predict that employers added 200,000 jobs or more jobs in September, the most since February.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/28/business/economy/consumer-spending-rose-slightly-in-august.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

New Spanish Budget Free of Austerity Measures

The budget is based on a forecast that the Spanish economy will grow 0.7 percent next year, up from the government’s previous forecast of 0.5 percent. Gross domestic product is expected to contract 1.3 percent this year.

Calling it a “budget of economic recovery,” Cristóbal Montoro, the budget minister, forecast that the proposal would “open the door to job creation in our country” since it lacked the tax increases and heavy spending cuts of recent years.

The government also forecast that the unemployment rate would fall to 25.9 percent in 2014, down from the record 27 percent that it reached in the first quarter of this year.

As part of its belt-tightening, the government has extended a salary freeze for civil servants for a fourth consecutive year. And on Friday, it approved changes to the pension system intended to save about 800 million euros ($1.08 billion) next year.

Having requested a bailout for its suffering banks in June of last year, the Spanish government has been under pressure to stick to its budgetary commitments, even as it faced frequent street protests against a series of spending cuts and tax increases.

Given the depth of Spain’s recession, the European Commission agreed last May to give Madrid more time to reach its budgetary targets. The Spanish deficit is expected to fall to 6.5 percent of gross domestic product this year. That would be down from a revised deficit of 6.8 percent of G.D.P. last year, which was 0.2 percentage points less than what Madrid had initially estimated. For 2014, the target is for a deficit of 5.8 percent of G.D.P.

One of the most significant turnarounds for Spain has been the recent fall in its borrowing costs as investors shifted the spotlight to Italy’s political fragility and the perceived risk that Italy poses for the euro zone. The interest rate premium demanded by investors for buying Spanish government bonds rather than Germany’s benchmark bonds fell this month below that of Italy for the first time since March of last year.

Thanks to that improvement, Mr. Montoro said, the cost of financing the country’s debt should fall 5.2 percent next year, to 36.6 billion euros.

While Spain is emerging from a two-year recession, Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy and his ministers have recently cautioned that the country still faced a significant economic challenge, with continued weakness in consumer spending and a reluctance by banks to provide credit.

The 2014 budget and the proposed changes to the way pension payments are calculated will now need to go to Parliament for a vote, but that is expected to be a formality as Mr. Rajoy’s Popular Party holds an absolute majority.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/28/business/international/spanish-budget-avoids-austerity-measures.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Zalaznick, Once a Programming Force at NBCUniversal, Is Leaving

Lauren Zalaznick, whose leadership at Bravo turned that cable network into a lucrative asset for its parent, NBCUniversal, is leaving the company, Steve Burke, the chief executive of NBCUniversal, told the staff in a memo released on Friday.

Because Ms. Zalaznick had already been moved away from control of Bravo and several other divisions she had led, including Oxygen, the Style network and Telemundo, to an amorphous position overseeing new business opportunities, mainly on the digital side, her departure was not seen as surprise inside the company.

NBC’s decision to release the news not in an official announcement but rather through a memo — and on a Friday afternoon — signaled the company’s desire to simply move on without calling undue attention to Ms. Zalaznick’s departure.

In his memo, Mr. Burke merely mentioned Ms. Zalaznick’s leaving and praised her contributions. No reason for her departure was included. But longtime NBC executives — who insisted on not being identified because the memo was intended to be the only company comment on the move — suggested that the departure was a result of an internal power struggle with NBCUniversal’s other top cable entertainment executive, Bonnie Hammer.

In February, Mr. Burke promoted Ms. Hammer to a position overseeing all NBC cable entertainment properties, including those previously led by Ms. Zalaznick.

The new role assigned to Ms. Zalaznick never seemed a perfect fit, several executives who worked with her said, because her strengths were on the operational side of the business, running entertainment networks, with an emphasis on quirky, creative ideas.

Those served her extremely well at Bravo, which she turned into a center for pop-culture programming, identifying and marketing hits like “Project Runway,” “Top Chef” and the many iterations of “Real Housewives.”

Ms. Zalaznick offered no comment. Nor was any mention made of her specific plans for the future. But one senior NBC executive, who has worked with Ms. Zalaznick, described her as upbeat about future moves. “She will pop up somewhere,” the executive said. “And it will be in an operational job that has something to do with pop culture. That’s where she shines.”

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/28/business/media/zalaznick-once-a-programming-force-at-nbcuniversal-is-leaving.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Common Sense: Investors and Fed Talk Past Each Other

So why did the Fed’s action reap a blast of criticism?

Reuters said 33 of 48 economists it polled faulted the Fed for being “unclear” in its communications, adding, “It is rare for a consensus of economists to criticize a major central bank.” The Wall Street Journal said Mr. Bernanke’s announcement was “the latest in a series of communications missteps.”

But perhaps their ire would have been better directed at the lawmakers in Washington who are trying to shut down the government and are threatening to default on the national debt. “Nobody knows what will happen with the budget and the national debt ceiling,” Alan Blinder, a professor of economics and public affairs at Princeton University and a former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve, told me this week. “The second of those is a major hazard to markets and the economy. It doesn’t take a genius to figure out that this might have given the Fed some second thoughts” about tightening.

The Fed’s action clearly surprised many professional investors, who were betting the Fed would start to tighten monetary policy, driving down stock and bond prices. When their bets turned out to be wrong, many of them aired their complaints with the Fed in the media.

The criticism plainly exasperated the usually unflappable Fed chairman, who has made greater communication and transparency a hallmark of his tenure. At a news conference on Sept. 18, he said, “I don’t recall stating that we would do any particular thing in this meeting,” and added somewhat tartly that the Fed’s mandate is to do what’s best for the economy and not what’s best for a small group of professional investors. “We can’t let market expectations dictate our policy actions,” he said.

Professor Blinder agreed with the chairman. “A small number of bond traders got burned by this, and when bond traders get burned they tend to blame the Fed,” he said. “And they should realize the Fed is not there to please them.”

At least some market professionals read the Fed’s signals right. Michael Hanson and Brian Smedley, analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, presciently warned before the Fed’s meeting that “the markets believe a September taper is a done deal,” but “we anticipate the Fed will attempt to recalibrate market expectations at this meeting. In our view, the best way to do that is by not tapering in September.”

Bill Gross, Pimco’s founder and widely followed bond and interest rate expert, also warned that market expectations had gotten ahead of reality, suggesting the Fed was more likely to “tinker” than “taper.”

Justin Wolfers, a professor of economics at the University of Michigan who is currently at the Brookings Institution in Washington, told me this week that investors shouldn’t have been so surprised. “Bernanke never promised to taper in September,” Professor Wolfers said. “He always said the decision was data-dependent.” It turned out that “the data were worse than when he first started talking about tapering.” And with a fiscal showdown looming in Congress, tightening monetary policy now would have been reckless, he said.

“There’s no reason to do it now when the Fed can wait a few months and see if this crisis is averted. Market professionals are whining about the Fed’s poor communication skills,” he said. “But the Fed has a clear statutory mandate, and keeping traders happy is not one of them.”

Even so, he and other economists I interviewed also agreed that Mr. Bernanke and the Fed bore at least some responsibility for the market’s confusion, especially given the Fed’s stated goal to reduce uncertainty and avoid market surprises. In June, Mr. Bernanke said that the Fed might begin to scale back its stimulus program before the end of the year, which many analysts interpreted as hinting at a September date. And he set a specific unemployment rate target of 7 percent for ending its monthly purchases of government bonds. Now, he’s saying the reduction in bond purchases might still begin before the end of the year, but he left open the option of continuing it beyond then. And he played down the importance of the unemployment data in setting Fed policy.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/28/business/the-fed-and-investors-in-need-of-talk-therapy.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Wealth Matters: Putting an Estate Value on the Assets Unique to You

Mr. Jackson, who died in June 2009, had revenue from his songs and his share in a music catalog; Mr. Salinger, who died in January 2010, had the royalty income from his books, which continue to be read and taught in schools.

But the speculation arises over what may not have been known or calculated at the time of their deaths. Mr. Jackson’s death was good for his earning potential — his estate now receives hundreds of millions of dollars a year, according to an analysis by Forbes. As for Mr. Salinger, a new documentary film claims that he had five finished manuscripts that will be published starting in 2015 and are likely to sell well.

In both instances, it would have been hard to know the value of those assets when their creators died, particularly in Mr. Jackson’s case. He had not had a successful record in many years, and the value of a record catalog was lower at the end of the recession than it is today. But trying to divine such values, however difficult, is an important part of settling any estate and avoiding the ire of the Internal Revenue Service. It also applies more broadly than many people think.

“The appraisal process is more of an art than a science,” said Richard A. Behrendt, director of estate planning at the financial services firm Baird and a former I.R.S. inspector. “When I was auditing returns, more than half the issues were valuation issues because of the speculative nature of appraisals. It’s very common.”

Property like a privately held small business, a big art collection, a share in rental properties or intellectual property like television or movie credits, patents or even Web site domain names are not as easy to value as, say, a stock portfolio.

Executors of estates for people who owned small businesses, particularly in service areas like law, accounting or medicine, where the revenue is reliant upon the owner, often face the opposite problem of the Salinger and Jackson estates: the values plummet when their owners are gone, but the I.R.S. still assesses a tax on the value at the date of death.

“My husband and I own a law firm, and part of the appeal of our law firm is us,” said Kelly Phillips Erb, a lawyer outside Philadelphia who has blogged on the tax matters related to the Jackson estate. “If we’re not around the next day, the value of the firm isn’t worth as much. The I.R.S. doesn’t care, and that presents a challenge for small-business owners.”

She said keeping detailed records, like minute books, and updating stock certificates helps in establishing a case for a certain valuation. An estate can also ask the I.R.S. to use an alternate valuation date that is six months after the date of death to take into consideration a loss of value.

Another debate occurs when the valuations are far apart. This happened in the Jackson case. When he died in June 2009, the recession seemed to be dragging on and his reputation was in tatters from years of lawsuits and accusations of molesting children.

After his death his reputation markedly improved and his music began selling again. The following year, in September 2010, the National Bureau of Economic Research declared that the recession had actually ended the previous June, around the time of his death, so in hindsight the future value of his record catalog was higher.

Yet the values assigned by the appraisers for Mr. Jackson’s estate and those for the I.R.S. were so far apart that the I.R.S. filed suit asking for $700 million in estate taxes and penalties. The issue now turns on whether Mr. Jackson’s estate was worth nearly as much in the moment before he died as the I.R.S. contends it was worth after.

Lance S. Hall, president of FMV Opinions, an appraisal firm that lost a bid to value the Jackson estate, said such wide disparities were becoming common, because the I.R.S. uses the higher value as a negotiating tactic.

“Suppose the real value of an estate is $20 million, and suppose the taxpayer’s expert comes in at $17 million,” Mr. Hall said. “The I.R.S.’s valuation engineer is likely to come in at $40 million. That’s going to scare the living daylights out of a person. But in the negotiation, the I.R.S. might get more because they could settle on $28 million.”

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/28/your-money/putting-an-estate-value-on-the-assets-unique-to-you.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

‘Big Bang’ Reinforces Its Status as Biggest Hit on Network TV

“The Big Bang Theory” left no doubt about what show is truly the biggest hit on network television, opening its new season Thursday night with overwhelming ratings, the best premiere in its seven-year history.

That result also meant good news for the new CBS comedy that followed on Thursday, “The Crazy Ones,” starring Robin Williams, which scored the best ratings for a new show this television season.

Many programs took a battering from the strength of the CBS comedies, especially the competing comedies on NBC, where the much-anticipated Michael J. Fox sitcom opened to less-than-impressive numbers. Still, “The Michael J. Fox Show” was the high point for NBC, as the critically admired comedy “Parks and Recreation” landed with its lowest premiere rating and tied its worst-ever performance over all.

The news was also bad for the one-time Fox hit “Glee,” which was down 35 percent from its opening ratings a year ago.

ABC’s ratings, however, held up because of a special two-hour edition of its long-running hit drama, “Grey’s Anatomy,” though that show experienced a year-to-year tumble, down 23 percent.

The results are based on initial overnight ratings; when the official national numbers are delivered later on Friday some shows will probably improve (mainly the successes), while others may decline (mainly the have-nots). All networks now emphasize that viewing totals will rise for shows when “delayed viewing” is counted. CBS, for example, projects “Big Bang” will soar by an additional four million viewers within three days.

As it is, “Big Bang” was the story of Thursday night, with two episodes, at 8 p.m. and 8:30. Taken together as an hour entry, the show averaged just under 19 million viewers and a 5.6 rating among advertiser-desirable viewers ages 18 to 49 — the best showing for any series this season.

That hour nicely set up “Crazy Ones,” which pulled in 15.6 million viewers, with a 4.0 rating in the 18-49 category.

CBS followed with the veteran sitcom “Two and a Half Men,” which still managed a respectable 11.5 million viewers and a 2.9 rating in the 18-49 group. CBS’s only relative weak spot came at 10 p.m., as the second-season premiere of “Elementary” was clearly stunted by the extra hour of “Grey’s.” It attracted just over 10 million viewers but only scored a 2.1 in the 18-49 category, down 32 percent from its premiere a year ago.

NBC has invested tens of millions of dollars in Mr. Fox’s show, but is throwing it into a ferociously competitive night with little protection. The series opened with 7.3 million viewers and a 2.1 in the 18-49 competition. Neither number is bad in the current context of television, but given the appeal of Mr. Fox, NBC surely hoped for better.

In the show’s defense, however, it was asked to self-start after the abysmal performance of “Parks and Recreation” from 8 p.m. to 9. That show only pulled in 3.3 million viewers (worst by far among all the four network entries Thursday) and a 1.3 in the 18-49 category, down 24 percent from its premiere a year ago.

At 10 on NBC, “Parenthood” also tied a series low with a 1.6 18-49 rating with just a little over five million viewers.

Fox, which got a little uptick from “The X Factor” on Wednesday, seems to be happy that the show is settling in at a survival number: it averaged a 2.0 rating Thursday against the night’s formidable competition. That remains far below the show’s previous level, and it is far below the big numbers NBC’s singing show, “The Voice,” has been putting up. But “X Factor” looks stable, which is a positive.

“Glee” may be more a concern. Its 2.0 rating in the 18-49 group was on par with how the show ended last season, meaning further decline is all but assured.

For ABC, the good news for “Grey’s” is that it still can rustle up a hit-level 18-49 number (a 3.4) even though it is diminished from last year. It averaged just over nine million viewers.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/28/business/media/big-bang-reinforces-its-status-as-biggest-hit-on-network-tv.html?partner=rss&emc=rss