May 9, 2024

Archives for December 2012

Today’s Economist: Nancy Folbre: Sharers, Takers, Carers, Makers

Nancy Folbre, economist at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst.

Nancy Folbre is an economics professor at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst. She recently edited and contributed to “For Love and Money: Care Provision in the United States.

Some of the most vivid political rhetoric of 2012 reflects a debate that has lasted centuries. Who are the makers and who are the takers? Much economic theory revolves around efforts to distinguish the two. The conceptual effort is motivated by noble intent: presumably, a good economic system encourages making (creating more to go around) and discourages taking (redistributing what others have made).

Today’s Economist

Perspectives from expert contributors.

Yet it is surprisingly hard to create a consensus about these labels, and past disagreements, still unresolved, lurk in the background. History is shaped by contending claims over who is more productive than whom. Powerful groups like to describe themselves as makers rather than takers, partly to glorify themselves and partly to discourage take-backs.

Some ambiguity derives from our basic relationship to nature. Humans started out as takers, not makers, hunting and foraging for food. Even in the harvesting of crops, back-breaking labor counts for little compared with the gifts of soil, sunshine and rain. Modern economic systems still largely rely on fossil fuels, gifts from the past.

Because we don’t have to bargain or trade directly with nature, we don’t consider it a participant in our economic system. Rather, we compete with other humans for access to nature’s bounty. In the competition for territory, resources and political power, taking has proved as indispensable to economic success – if not more so – than making.

Think of feudal lords, who believed they earned the right to demand obeisance from their serfs because they offered protection from the depredations of other lords. A protection racket, in many respects, but as Jared Diamond persuasively asserts in “Guns, Germs and Steel,” Europe’s military prowess, honed by internecine wars, enabled an imperial expansion that worked to its economic advantage.

When John Locke laid the conceptual foundations of liberal democracy in the 17th century, he contended that a system that guaranteed men rights over the product of their own labor (including wild apples picked from a tree) would always prevail over a system based on arbitrary authority, like feudal dues or taxation without representation.

He excluded women from his theory, assuming that childbearing and family care were not forms of labor, but like apples, gifts of nature (until picked by men). Classical political economy, from Adam Smith to Karl Marx, presumed that women’s domestic labor was “unproductive” even if it was performed by paid servants.

Over the course of the 19th century, wives and mothers who worked long hours in the home rather than earning wages came to be described as “dependents” who were “supported” by their husbands, a description that early feminists fiercely challenged.

In debates over welfare reform in the 1990s, most Republicans and Democrats alike dismissed the idea that a “work requirement” could be met by anything but paid employment. Last April, however, conservatives rallied to the point of view that stay-at-home mothers are makers, rather than takers, challenging a Democratic strategist’s accusation that Ann Romney “never worked a day in her life.”

That particular argument was superseded by Mitt Romney’s assertion that members of families who paid no federal income taxes were all takers rather than makers. In the wake of the presidential election, he went on to suggest that President Obama was a winner only because he was a “giver,” redistributing income away from the makers to the takers.

Conservatives tend to describe government employees as unproductive, a legacy of the late 19th century Austrian school of economics, popularized by the writer Ayn Rand. Even those who emphasize the blurry line between making and taking, like the economist Tyler Cowen, seem convinced that “taking” is to the public sector as “making” is to the private sector.

But as the term “taking profits” implies, some private-sector income is based on speculation, rather than actual production. In the long run, standard economic theory predicts that profits, above and beyond returns to skill, entrepreneurship and the costs of capital, should attract new entrants into an industry, pushing profits toward zero in competitive markets.

Instead, the share of profits relative to wages has been increasing in both the United States and other affluent countries, not because workers are becoming less productive, but because technological change, deregulation and globalization have made it easier for owners to keep wages low. Increases in monopoly power may also help explain the rising profit share.

In sum, being a taker is not a sign of economic failure, and being a maker is no guarantee of economic success. Taking is not confined to the public sector, and making is not confined to the market economy.

Our own life cycles show us that taking and making often alternate in rhythm. We all start out dependent on the care of others, and many of us end that way as well. In between we hope to make a living not just for ourselves, but for others: those who made our past and those who will make our future.

A good economic system rests on sharing and caring as much as, if not more than, taking and making. Ever wonder why the first part usually gets left out of the story?

Article source: http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/12/31/sharers-takers-carers-makers/?partner=rss&emc=rss

Media Decoder Blog: Tribune Co. Emerges From Bankruptcy

 
After four years, the Tribune Company, whose holdings include The Los Angeles Times and The Chicago Tribune along with nearly two dozen television stations and other media assets, has emerged from bankruptcy protection, the company announced Monday.

The company’s reorganization plan was approved by the United States Bankruptcy Court in Delaware in July and had awaited final approvals from the Federal Communications Commission, which it received in November.
 
The announcement marks the end of a prolonged process for a company whose assets have been tied up in court proceedings while the media industry has undergone a major transformation to digital. In a letter to employees, Eddy Hartenstein, the company’s chief executive, acknowledged that the past four years “have been a challenging period.”
 
“You have been resilient, dedicated to serving the company, our customers and your fellow employees,” he told the staff. ”You are what sets Tribune apart from our competitors.”
 
The company also announced a seven-member board. The directors include Mr. Hartenstein along with Peter Liguori, a former chief operating officer of Discovery Communications, who is expected to be named chief executive. Bruce Karsh, a founder of Oaktree Capital Management, which is a major shareholder in the company, also sits on the board, as well as Ross Levinsohn, the former interim chief at Yahoo. The company said it expected to resolve details about board members’ responsibilities at its first meeting in the next few weeks.
 
The company is emerging from bankruptcy protection with a $300 million loan to finance what the company described as its “ongoing operations” as well as a $1.1 billion loan to fund payments for its reorganization.
 
The end of the bankruptcy opens the company’s assets up to potential sale. Rupert Murdoch and David Geffen are among those who have expressed interest in buying some of Tribune’s newspapers.

Article source: http://mediadecoder.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/12/31/tribune-co-emerges-from-bankruptcy/?partner=rss&emc=rss

Times Reporter in China Is Forced to Leave Over Visa Issue

Chris Buckley, a 45-year-old Australian who has worked as a correspondent in China since 2000, rejoined The Times in September after working for the news agency Reuters. The Times applied for Mr. Buckley to be accredited to replace a correspondent who was reassigned, but the authorities did not act before Dec. 31, despite numerous requests. That forced Mr. Buckley, his partner and their daughter to fly to Hong Kong on Monday.

Normally, requests to transfer visas are processed in a matter of weeks or a couple of months.

The Times is also waiting for its new Beijing bureau chief, Philip P. Pan, to be accredited. Mr. Pan applied in March, but his visa has not been processed.

The visa troubles come amid government pressure on the foreign news media over investigations into the finances of senior Chinese leaders, a sensitive subject. Corruption is widely reported in China, but top leaders are considered off-limits.

On the day that The Times published a long investigation into the riches of the family of Prime Minister Wen Jiabao, both its English-language Web site and its new Chinese-language site were blocked within China, and they remain so.

In June, the authorities blocked the English-language site of Bloomberg News after it published a detailed investigation into the family riches of China’s new top leader, Xi Jinping. Chinese financial institutions say they have been instructed by officials not to buy Bloomberg’s computer terminals, a lucrative source of income for the company.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs declined to comment on Mr. Buckley’s forced departure. Ministry officials have not said if they were linking Mr. Buckley’s visa renewal or Mr. Pan’s press accreditation to the newspaper’s coverage of China. In a statement, The Times urged the authorities to process Mr. Buckley’s visa as quickly as possible so that he and his family could return to Beijing.

“I regret that Chris Buckley has been forced to relocate outside of China despite our repeated requests to renew his journalist visa,” Jill Abramson, the executive editor of The Times, said in the statement. “I hope the Chinese authorities will issue him a new visa as soon as possible and allow Chris and his family to return to Beijing. I also hope that Phil Pan, whose application for journalist credentials has been pending for months, will also be issued a visa to serve as our bureau chief in Beijing.”

The Times has six other accredited correspondents in China, and their visas were renewed for 2013 in a timely manner. David Barboza, the Shanghai bureau chief, who wrote the articles about Mr. Wen’s family, was among those whose visas were renewed.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/01/world/asia/times-reporter-in-china-is-forced-to-leave-over-visa-issue.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

The Media Equation: In 2013, Engineering a Reversal of Fortune for Media Leaders

In business, all years are critical — make a big mistake and you won’t have the chance to make another one. But in the media, wave after wave of transformation mean the coming year is particularly important.

Insurgents are racing over the hills; margins, along with the advertising sales that drove them, are tumbling; and people consume media content at a time, place and, often, at a cost of their choosing. Forget New Year’s resolutions. We’re talking imperatives, a to-do list that requires eating your Wheaties and then some. So on the last day of 2012, it’s worth looking at a group of leaders who confront very steep hills to climb in the year that ends in lucky 13.

Laura Lang

Fred R. Conrad/The New York Times

Laura Lang

LAURA LANG, C.E.O. OF TIME INC.

Hired a year ago from a digital advertising firm to head Time Inc., Time Warner’s magazine behemoth, Ms. Lang was optimistically viewed as an out-of-the-box answer to the knotty problem of making a print company dance in a digital era.

Twelve months later, the honeymoon, if there ever was one, is over. Advertising has quickly gone backward at the publisher, and the nascent efforts in mobile and video Ms. Lang has championed will not fill the crater anytime soon.

Time Inc., an industry leader in print subscriptions, has yet to find a way to wring money from consumers on the Web. Ms. Lang has been slow in articulating a business strategy and building a team to execute it, and at some point, the people who hired her will start checking their watches.

Jeffrey Zucker

Jamie McCarthy/Getty Images for Paramount Pictures

Jeffrey Zucker

JEFFREY ZUCKER, PRESIDENT OF CNN WORLDWIDE

Of all the people on this list, Mr. Zucker, whose appointment was announced in November, probably has the best chance of showing progress. After all, he will take over a business that makes $600 million, all while doing not much of anything right.

Fixing any one of CNN’s manifest problems — mornings that are not competitive, evening ratings that are deeply embarrassing and a late-night transplant inPiers Morgan who is being rejected by the viewing public — will make him look like a genius.

Most important, to me at least, is that CNN master the Big Story. The network, often useful on breaking international news, has fumbled on signature domestic events including the Newtown school shooting. Call me old-fashioned, but fewer breathless, informationless stand-ups from reporters and more actual reporting may be a good place to start.

Martha Stewart

Evan Agostini/Associated Press

Martha Stewart

MARTHA STEWART, FOUNDER, MARTHA STEWART LIVING OMNIMEDIA

A nice little franchise that overshot after going public, Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia resembles a troubled aircraft that is madly switching pilots while chunks of the plane are flying off.

Big write-downs caused third-quarter losses to exceed total revenue; after all of five months, the chief executive said she would step down; and the company just cut two of its magazines, Whole Living and Everyday Food, as stand-alone products.

Add in the fact that the Hallmark Channel declined to renew the daily “Martha Stewart Show,” and you have a lot less media coming out of a company named Omnimedia. Most of the profits now come from merchandising, but even those are imperiled.

The company signed a deal with J. C. Penney to sell branded Martha Stewart products last year, which was a coup, except that Macy’s accused the company of already selling it those rights and promptly sued. The stock fell to $2.50 a share from over $4.50 at the start of the year. Clearly, it’s going to take more than a few well-placed floral arrangements to make this company look pretty again.

Robert Thomson

Shannon Stapleton/Reuters

Robert Thomson

ROBERT THOMSON, C.E.O. OF NEWS CORPORATION

A trusted Rupert Murdochlieutenant who took over as managing editor of The Wall Street Journal in 2008, Mr. Thomson overcame the skepticism of the staff with an acute eye for news. The result was a more general interest newspaper that was a hit with readers. And now that News Corporation has been split into two divisions, publishing and entertainment, Mr. Thomson will make the leap to the business side and become the chief executive of the publishing unit.

Running those assets without the support of Fox News and “Avatar” will be a challenge, which became clear this month when the company said in a filing that its publishing businesses lost $2.1 billion in the fiscal year that ended June 30. Those losses came largely from $2.8 billion in charges mostly related to closing News of the World in Britain in the wake of the phone-hacking scandal.

The remaining print assets — including newspapers like The Wall Street Journal, The New York Post and The Times of London, and HarperCollins, a book publisher — will be folded in with a number of fast-growing Australian pay-television assets, which should give the newly formed division some financial cushion.

E-mail: carr@nytimes.com;

Twitter: @carr2n

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/31/business/media/in-2013-engineering-a-reversal-of-fortune-for-media-leaders.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Mattel to Give Thomas the Tank Engine a Multimillion-Dollar Sheen

Will parents get on board?

Mattel agreed last year to pay a hefty $680 million for Hit Entertainment, the British owner of Thomas, a cheery blue locomotive first introduced in a 1946 book. Starting in January, the toy manufacturer hopes to turn the talking train and his friends — Butch the Tow Truck, Engine Emily — into a property on par with Hot Wheels and Barbie.

“It’s been a brand that has been pretty bereft of investment,” said David Allmark, executive vice president of Mattel’s Fisher-Price brands. “We really believe that we can grow this on a worldwide basis, particularly in Latin America and Asia.”

Thomas is huge, with global retail sales totaling about $1 billion annually, according to analysts. Barbie has estimated annual worldwide sales of $2 billion, while Hot Wheels is closer to $1 billion. Hot Wheels, however, has stronger brand recognition in North America than Thomas and is a better seller in the toy aisle. “An established brand like Thomas helps Mattel, which has historically been stronger with girls than boys, in the extraordinarily competitive preschool market,” said Marty Brochstein, senior vice president for industry relations and information at the International Licensing Industry Merchandisers’ Association. “It is much more expensive and tenuous to try and create a franchise from scratch.”

Still, expansion of the Thomas franchise in Europe and North America could be difficult because of gender and age constraints. Analysts say the character appeals to both boys and girls from ages 1 to 3, but then girls tend to split off into dolls and dress up; boys stick around until about age 5, then lean toward more complicated toys and stories.

The effort to reposition Thomas includes new toys, in particular an expanded and enhanced line of wooden trains, and a new one-hour animated movie called “King of the Railway,” which will be released in the spring on DVD by Lionsgate and supported with “blue carpet” premieres in the United States and Europe. Mattel will also produce at least three more seasons of the “Thomas Friends” television series, shown on PBS and Sprout.

Mr. Allmark said the chubby-cheeked Thomas, which was created by a British clergyman named Wilbert Awdry while trying to soothe his son, Christopher, who was sick with the measles, will continue to espouse “innocent, sweet life lessons.” But Mr. Allmark added that Mattel thinks a few minor changes — faster storytelling, for instance — can make the anthropomorphic train more relevant to modern children. “Some of it needs livening up a little bit,” he said.

Devotees who like Thomas for his simplicity may find those to be fighting words, but Mattel and its new Hit unit plan to back up their efforts with a multimillion-dollar advertising campaign called “Anytime Is Thomas Time.” Plans also call for a new online portal devoted to Thomas, more live events (look-alike trains steaming into cities across North America), and possibly a balloon in the next Macy’s Thanksgiving parade.

“When you are successful for as long as Thomas has been, you can become part of the woodwork,” said Shari Donnenfeld, head of Hit Global Brands. “We need to reinforce the brand by reminding people why they love it and introducing new content.”

Besides Mattel, multiple entertainment companies, including Walt Disney, weighed Hit’s prospects but passed, deciding that Thomas came with too many downsides, given the asking price. TV episodes and movies are expensive to produce, for instance, and DVDs do not sell the way they used to.

Mattel needed a preschool franchise to reinforce its Fisher-Price business, analysts say. Last year, the division lost an important Sesame Street license to a rival, Hasbro, and is coming off a few difficult years marked by recalls, including the removal from shelves of 10 million Fisher-Price toys in 2010. Last year, worldwide Fisher-Price sales totaled $2.16 billion, a 3 percent decline from a year earlier.

Mr. Allmark called Hit, which also owns characters like Barney, Angelina Ballerina and Bob the Builder, “a pretty rare diamond.”

Thomas has been a brand in flux in recent years. In 2009, Hit dropped the old-fashioned animation style that had been the TV program’s hallmark in favor of computer-generated images. The trains also began to speak on the televised show for the first time. The changes risked alienating some parents, but ratings in certain important demographics have increased 30 percent, according to Nielsen data.

Computerized animation has also allowed Hit to expand Thomas deeper into the digital realm; there are 15 related apps, and Mattel plans to introduce four more in the coming months.

Thomas faces challengers in the hotly competitive preschool market. Disney is planning an increased retail push tied to its “Jake and the Never Land Pirates” program. But retailers like Toys “R” Us note that Mattel and its Fisher-Price unit have the muscle to secure expanded shelf space for Thomas and his friends.

“Fisher-Price brings extraordinary product development, but they also have an unbelievable marketing machine,” said Richard Barry, chief merchandising officer for Toys “R” Us. He added, “Thomas is a brand that we absolutely love.”

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/31/business/media/mattel-to-give-thomas-the-tank-engine-a-multimillion-dollar-sheen.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Chinese Regulator’s Family Profited From Stake in Insurer

The regulator, Dai Xianglong, was the head of China’s central bank and also had oversight of the insurance industry in 2002, when a company his relatives helped control bought a big stake in Ping An Insurance that years later came to be worth billions of dollars. The insurer was drawing new investors ahead of a public stock offering after averting insolvency a few years earlier.

With growing attention on the wealth amassed by families of the politically powerful in China, the investments of Mr. Dai’s relatives illustrate that the riches extend beyond the families of the political elites to the families of regulators with control of the country’s most important business and financial levers. Mr. Dai, an economist, has since left his post with the central bank and now manages the country’s $150 billion social security fund, one of the world’s biggest investment funds.

How much the relatives made in the deal is not known, but analysts say the activity raises further doubts about whether the capital markets are sufficiently regulated in China.

Nicholas C. Howson, an expert in Chinese securities law at the University of Michigan Law School, said: “While not per se illegal or even evidence of corruption, these transactions feed into a problematic perception that is widespread in the P.R.C.: the relatives of China’s highest officials are given privileged access to pre-I.P.O. properties.” He was using the abbreviation for China’s official name, the People’s Republic of China.

The company that bought the Ping An stake was controlled by a group of investment firms, including two set up by Mr. Dai’s son-in-law, Che Feng, as well as other firms associated with Mr. Che’s relatives and business associates, the regulatory filings show.

The company, Dinghe Venture Capital, got the shares for an extremely good price, the records show, paying a small fraction of what a large British bank had paid per share just two months earlier. The company paid $55 million for its Ping An shares on Dec. 26, 2002. By 2007, the last time the value of the investment was made public, the shares were worth $3.1 billion.

In its investigation, The New York Times found no indication that Mr. Dai had been aware of his relatives’ activities, or that any law had been broken. But the relatives appeared to have made a fortune by investing in financial services companies over which Mr. Dai had regulatory authority.

In another instance, in November 2002, Dinghe acquired a big stake in Haitong Securities, a brokerage firm that also fell under Mr. Dai’s jurisdiction, according to the brokerage firm’s Shanghai prospectus.

By 2007, just after Haitong’s public listing in Shanghai, those shares were worth about $1 billion, according to public filings. Later, between 2007 and 2010, Mr. Dai’s wife, Ke Yongzhen, was chairwoman on Haitong’s board of supervisors.

A spokesman for Mr. Dai and the National Social Security Fund did not return phone calls seeking comment. A spokeswoman for Mr. Che, the son-in-law, denied by e-mail that he had ever held a stake in Ping An. The spokeswoman said another businessman had bought the Ping An shares and then, facing financial difficulties, sold them to a group that included Mr. Che’s friends and relatives, but not Mr. Che.

The businessman “could not afford what he has created, so he had to sell his shares all at once,” the spokeswoman, Jenny Lau, wrote in an e-mail.

The corporate records reviewed by The Times, however, show that Mr. Che, his relatives and longtime business associates set up a complex web of companies that effectively gave him and the others control of Dinghe Venture Capital, which made the investments in Ping An and Haitong Securities. The records show that one of the companies later nominated Mr. Che to serve on the Ping An board of supervisors. His term ran from 2006 to 2009.

The Times reported last month that another investment company had also bought shares in Ping An Insurance at an unusually low price on the same day in 2002 as Dinghe Venture Capital. That company, Tianjin Taihong, was later partly controlled by relatives of Prime Minister Wen Jiabao, then serving as vice premier with oversight of China’s financial institutions. In late 2007, the shares Taihong bought in Ping An were valued at $3.7 billion.

The investments by Dinghe and Taihong are significant in part because by late 2002, Beijing regulators had granted Ping An an unusual waiver to rules that would have forced the insurer to sell off some divisions. Throughout the late 1990s, the company was fighting rules that would have required a breakup, a move that Ping An executives worried could lead to bankruptcy.

It is unclear whether Mr. Wen or Mr. Dai intervened on behalf of Ping An, but in April 2002 the company was allowed to reorganize and retain its brokerage and trust division. Two years later, Ping An sold shares to the public for the first time in Hong Kong. In 2007, after a second stock listing in Shanghai, the value of the company’s shares skyrocketed. Today, Ping An is one of the world’s biggest financial institutions, worth an estimated $65 billion.

The decision to grant the waiver came after Ping An executives and the insurer’s bankers had aggressively lobbied regulators, including Mr. Dai.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/31/business/global/chinese-regulators-family-profited-from-stake-in-insurer.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Economic Costs of Budget Impasse Inevitable, Experts Say

While negotiators in the capital focus on keeping Bush-era tax rates in place for all but the wealthiest Americans, other tax increases are expected to go into effect regardless of what happens in the coming days. For example, a two percentage point jump in payroll taxes for Social Security is all but certain after Jan. 1, a change that will equal an additional $2,000 from the paycheck of a worker earning $100,000 a year.

Many observers initially expected the lower payroll-tax deduction rate of 4.2 percent to be preserved. But in recent weeks, as it became clear that political leaders were prepared to let that rate rise to 6.2 percent, economists reduced their predictions for growth in the first quarter accordingly.

Largely because of this jump in payroll taxes, Nigel Gault, chief United States economist at IHS Global Insight, is halving his prediction for economic growth in the first quarter to 1 percent from an earlier estimate of just over 2 percent. That represents a significant slowdown in economic growth from the third quarter of 2012, when the economy expanded at an annual rate of 3.1 percent.

Mr. Obama has pushed to preserve Bush-era tax rates on income below $250,000 a year but Republicans have held out for a higher threshold, perhaps in the neighborhood of $400,000 a year. Republicans also favor deeper spending cuts to curb long-term budget deficits — a move many Democrats oppose.

While hopes dimmed Sunday afternoon that a deal could be reached before Jan. 1, most observers said they did not expect the full impact from more than $600 billion in potential tax increases and spending cuts to swamp the economy right away. Indeed, a compromise could be struck in the coming weeks that heads off the worst of the fallout.

In the event no compromise is found, however, the Congressional Budget Office and many private economists warn that the sudden pullback in spending and the rise in taxes would push the economy into recession in the first half of the year. Under this outcome, Mr. Gault said, the economy could shrink by 0.5 percent over all of 2013.

With the clock ticking, some observers bolstered their criticism of Washington. “If we have a recession, it’s unforgivable,” said Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist at the Economic Outlook Group. “For the first time in modern history, we will have a self-inflicted recession in the U.S.”

Despite Washington’s history of delaying fiscal compromises to the last possible minute — as in the fight over raising the debt ceiling in the summer of 2011 — investors had assumed until very recently that a deal would be completed before year-end.

But last week, stocks sold off as hopes for a quick compromise faded. More pressure on shares is expected beginning on Monday, especially if the fight does indeed slip into 2013. If anything forces politicians to act, Mr. Baumohl said, it could be a sell-off on Wall Street. “The politicians need to be pressed by markets to be forced to the table,” he said.

Payroll managers at many companies are also watching the negotiations closely but have already prepared systems for the two percentage point change in payroll taxes, said Scott A. Schapiro, a principal at KPMG.

“We’re primarily closed down from Christmas to New Year’s,” he said, “but our payroll folks are working. Payroll has to be around.”

“This is one of the most obvious effects of the fiscal cliff,” Mr. Schapiro added, “because it will affect all taxpayers.” The Social Security payroll tax applies to the first $113,700 of annual income, he said. It was first cut by Congress in late 2010 to help give the economy a jolt, and was extended again last year to cover 2012.

Another big question mark is whether unemployment benefits for more than two million jobless Americans will be extended beyond Jan. 1. While there is still the possibility these payouts for the long-term unemployed will be preserved as the negotiations go down to the wire, failure to extend them would deliver another sizable blow to a still-fragile economy, experts said.

“This is not just an inside-the-Beltway-game,” said Vincent Reinhart, chief United States economist at Morgan Stanley. “Both the payroll tax increase and the change in unemployment benefits would hit hand-to-mouth consumers hard. This has consequences for the whole economy.”

Consumer spending is especially critical right now, because many businesses have pulled back already, citing the fiscal impasse in Washington as a prime concern. Until recently, consumers have been more optimistic about the economy, although sentiment has eroded in recent weeks as anxiety increased about just what policy makers would do in terms of taxes and spending.

If it were not for the uncertainty in Washington and the fallout from the fiscal impasse, Mr. Reinhart said, the economy would be growing at an annual rate of 2 percent to 2.5 percent. Instead, he estimated growth in the fourth quarter of 2012 at just under 1 percent, and said he expected it to edge up only slightly to around 1 percent in the first half of 2013. Unemployment, now at 7.7 percent, is about 0.3 percentage point higher than it otherwise would be, he added.

To be sure, the impact from some other scheduled changes will not be felt right away — and could still be reversed if a deal is completed in the coming weeks. For example, automatic spending cuts set to hit the Pentagon budget as well as nonmilitary programs are spread out between now and the end of the 2013 fiscal year in September, giving legislators time to change course and head off any major impact.

But the longer the standoff continues, the deeper the economic damage, experts said. “Because the politicians couldn’t get out of the way,” Mr. Reinhart said, “growth in the last quarter of 2012 and the first two quarters of 2013 will be below trend. There is a real cost of not coming to the table.”

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/31/business/economy/economic-costs-of-budget-impasse-are-inevitable-experts-say.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

News Analysis: In Europe, Focus Begins to Shift to Speed of a Recovery

A year ago, many people seriously doubted whether the euro would still exist by now. On the threshold of 2013, the debate is more about how long it will take for the euro zone economy to recover and what must be changed to avoid future crises.

Europe still has plenty to worry about. Economic output is shrinking in nine of the 17 nations that use the euro. European banks remain weak, and many have yet to confront their problems decisively.

Many businesses in Spain, Italy and other distressed countries cannot obtain credit, hampering a recovery.

On top of that, with national elections coming in Italy in February and Germany in September, leaders there may be more focused on the narrow concerns of their voters than the cause of European unity.

“At the moment the crisis seems to have calmed down somewhat,” Jens Weidmann, president of the Bundesbank, the German central bank, said in an interview with the Frankfurter Allgemeine newspaper published on Sunday. “But the underlying causes have by no means been eliminated.”

But consider some of the doomsday situations that did not occur in 2012. Greece did not leave the euro zone or set off a financial disaster like the one sparked by the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Spanish and Italian bond yields, rather than succumbing to contagion from Greece, retreated from levels that had threatened their governments with bankruptcy. And nowhere did populist, anti-euro political parties gain the upper hand.

All of these things could still happen, but the probability of catastrophe has fallen substantially because of a fundamental change in the way that European leaders are dealing with the crisis.

Under its president, Mario Draghi, the European Central Bank has promised to buy the bonds of countries like Spain, if needed, to control their borrowing costs.

That vow, which cooled the crisis fever of late summer, bought time for elected officials to begin creating the superstructure needed to make the euro more credible, including a permanent fund for rescuing stricken member countries and a unified system for overseeing banks.

“In 2012, the euro area leaders finally got the diagnosis right,” said Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, a research fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. “It wasn’t about Greek debt or Irish banks. It was about some very fundamental design flaws that needed to be fixed. That’s what markets were looking for.”

Even though European political leaders seem to argue endlessly, they have made enough progress to keep speculators at bay. Investors surveyed by UBS recently ranked the chances of a breakup of the euro zone well behind the potential danger from a combination of spending cuts and tax increases scheduled to take effect in the United States next month or a hard landing by the Chinese economy.

“There is more of a perception that nobody is better off if this thing breaks up,” said Richard Barwell, senior European economist at Royal Bank of Scotland.

The question in 2013 will be whether a fragile calm in Europe holds long enough for economic growth to resume, for banks to rebuild their balance sheets and for leaders to make progress creating a more durable currency union.

Here are some of the main things to watch:

ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE The euro crisis, arguably, will be over the day that all of the stricken countries are generating economic growth. Ireland, one of the first countries to get into debt trouble back in 2008, might already have turned the corner. Its gross domestic product grew 0.2 percent in the third quarter from the period a year earlier.

Spain, Italy and Portugal are still deep in recession, and Greece is in a de facto depression. But there are some signs of progress in one crucial measure: trade balances. All of the distressed countries have increased exports this year and reduced trade deficits. That is a sign their products have become more competitive on world markets.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/31/business/global/in-europe-debate-slowly-shifts-to-speed-of-a-recovery.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Chinese Firm Is Cleared to Buy American DNA Sequencing Company

The Chinese firm, BGI-Shenzhen, said in a news release this weekend that its acquisition of Complete Genomics, based in Mountain View, Calif., had been cleared by the federal Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, which reviews the national security implications of foreign takeovers of American companies.

Some scientists, politicians and industry executives had said the takeover represented a threat to American competitiveness in DNA sequencing, a technology that is becoming crucial for the development of drugs, diagnostics and improved crops.

The fact that the $117.6 million deal was controversial at all reflects a change in the genomics community.

A decade ago, the Human Genome Project, in which scientists from many nations helped unravel the genetic blueprint of mankind, was celebrated for its spirit of international cooperation. One of the participants in the project was BGI, which was then known as the Beijing Genomics Institute.

But with DNA sequencing now becoming a big business and linchpin of the biotechnology industry, international rivalries and nationalism are starting to move front and center in any acquisition.

Much of the alarm about the deal has been raised by Illumina, a San Diego company that is the market share leader in sequencing machines. It has potentially the most to lose from the deal because BGI might buy fewer Illumina products and even become a competitor. Weeks after the BGI deal was announced, Illumina made its own belated bid for Complete Genomics, offering 15 cents a share more than BGI’s bid of $3.15. But Complete Genomics rebuffed Illumina, saying such a merger would never clear antitrust review.

Illumina also hired a Washington lobbyist, the Glover Park Group, to stir up opposition to the deal in Congress. Representative Frank R. Wolf, Republican of Virginia, was the only member of Congress known to have publicly expressed concern.

BGI and Complete Genomics point out that Illumina has long sold its sequencing machines — including a record-setting order of 128 high-end machines — to BGI without raising any security concerns. Sequencing machines have not been subject to export controls like aerospace equipment, lasers, sensors and other gear that can have clear military uses.

“Illumina has never previously considered its business with BGI as ‘sensitive’ in the least,” Ye Yin, the chief operating officer of BGI, said in a November letter to Complete Genomics that was made public in a regulatory filing. In the letter, Illumina was accused of “obvious hypocrisy.”

BGI and Complete said that Illumina was trying to derail the agreement and acquire Complete Genomics itself in order to “eliminate its closest competitor, Complete.”

BGI is already one of the most prolific DNA sequencers in the world, but it buys the sequencing machines it uses from others, mainly Illumina.

Illumina, joined by some American scientists, said it worried that if BGI gained access to Complete’s sequencing technology, the Chinese company might use low prices to undercut the American sequencing companies that now dominate the industry.

Some also said that with Complete Genomics providing an American base, BGI would have access to more DNA samples from Americans, helping it compile a huge database of genetic information that could be used to develop drugs and diagnostic tests. Some also worried about protection of the privacy of genetic information.

“What’s to stop them from mining genomic data of American samples to some unknown nefarious end?” Elaine R. Mardis, co-director of the genome sequencing center at Washington University in St. Louis, said in an e-mail.

Dr. Mardis could not specify what kind of nefarious end she imagined. But opponents of the deal cited a November article in The Atlantic saying that in the future, pathogens could be genetically engineered to attack particular individuals, including the president, based on their DNA sequences.

BGI and Complete Genomics dismissed such concerns as preposterous.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/31/health/chinese-firm-is-cleared-to-buy-american-dna-sequencing-company.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Media Decoder Blog: A Documentary Maker Puts Money on an Oscar Ad

Steven C. Barber is the director of “Until They Are Home.”Matthew Hausle Steven C. Barber is the director of “Until They Are Home.”

SANTA MONICA, Calif. — Steven C. Barber, filmmaker, was looking at a used Lexus to replace his 2001 Chevy when the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences released its lists of Oscar-eligible scores and songs this month. The music from his documentary, “Until They Are Home,” made both.

So who needs a Lexus? Mr. Barber, who operates from a rent-controlled apartment here, bought a full-page “for your consideration” ad in Variety instead.

The ad, said Mr. Barber, who spoke by telephone last week, cost him a little less than its standard price of $13,500. As with almost everything related to his movies, he haggled — but at least he didn’t ask Variety for a contribution.

“I ask everyone for money,” said Mr. Barber, who describes himself as a salesman by nature. In fact, he makes a living by selling advertising when he isn’t pursuing his passion for documentary films, and especially those about repatriating the remains of American military personnel who died abroad.

“Until They Are Home” is a sequel to Mr. Barber’s 2009 film “Return to Tarawa: The Leon Cooper Story.” Both films examine the battle for Tarawa, an atoll where in 1943 more than 5,000 Americans and Japanese died, most on the island of Betio, which is smaller than Central Park.

The new movie is about a United States military mission — inspired by the first film — to reclaim the bodies left behind. T. Boone Pickens and Ted Leonsis, said Mr. Barber, are among the wealthy supporters who contributed to the film’s roughly $300,000 budget.

The country singer Clint Black contributed a song, “She Won’t Let Go.” The composer Jamie Dunlap, known for his work on “South Park,” was paid for a score. And Mr. Barber got them qualified for Oscar consideration by doing what most ambitious documentarians do — spending still more money.

For starters, it cost about $18,000, he said, to have the movie shown for a week in one theater each in New York and in Los Angeles, with accompanying ads in The Village Voice and The Los Angeles Times.

Conversion of the film to a specified digital format, another Oscar requirement, cost an additional $3,000. It took about $400 more to make some 200 DVDs for distribution to documentary branch members, who did not put the film on their short list of 15 contenders.

But Mr. Barber hedged his bets by filling out some extra paperwork for the group’s music branch. Hence, Mr. Black’s song became one of 75 that are being considered for nominations, while Mr. Dunlap became one of 104 official contenders in the best score category.

If they are nominated, Mr. Barber is confident he can raise more money, to be used for a film about repatriating remains from the Philippines. As for the Variety ad, he figured, it was worth a used Lexus.

“I’ve got to roll the dice,” he said, “and make it look like I’m bigger than I am.”

Article source: http://mediadecoder.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/12/30/a-documentary-maker-puts-money-on-an-oscar-ad/?partner=rss&emc=rss