March 29, 2024

U.S. Jobs Report: Gain of 224,000 in a June Rebound

Here’s what to watch for.

There is no question that the job market has cooled. Employers have added an average of 151,000 jobs per month over the past three months, down from 233,000 in the final three months of 2018. The manufacturing sector, a major driver of growth in the first two years of President Trump’s term, is slowing down, and retailers are shedding jobs. Wage growth, though solid, is no longer accelerating.

What is less clear is whether that slowdown is anything to worry about. Tax cuts and government spending increases gave a temporary jolt to the economy last year, but the effects were always expected to fade. There has been no sign of an increase in layoffs, which have been the most reliable early sign of a downturn in the job market.

“We’re still creating jobs,” said Lindsey Piegza, chief economist at the investment bank Stifel. “We’re still putting Americans back to work on a day-to-day basis, but we’re doing so at a significantly slower clip.”

By most measures, the job market is still fundamentally strong. The unemployment rate, 3.6 percent, is at a nearly 50-year low. Employers have added jobs for 104 consecutive months, easily a record. After such a long stretch of growth, a gradual cooling is hardly surprising.

What worries economists is the possibility that the slowdown will not be so gradual.

If the economy does shift down further in the months ahead, one likely culprit will be Mr. Trump’s trade war.

Article source: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/05/business/economy/june-jobs-report.html?emc=rss&partner=rss

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