April 20, 2024

U.S. Consumer Inflation Subdued, Housing Starts Up

The report from the Labor Department showed that the overall Consumer Price Index rose 0.3 percent last month compared with a 0.4 percent rise in August. Gasoline prices rose at a faster pace, while the increase in food prices slowed.

The core C.P.I., which strips out such volatile categories, recorded a 0.1 percent rise in September, its smallest since March, compared with 0.2 percent in August. It was kept in check by some of the prices of its key components, such as rents, which rose moderately, and automobiles, which did not rise at all. The indexes for apparel, used cars and recreation declined.

The report, which reflects seasonally adjusted figures, showed that inflationary pressures were contained despite a rise in wholesale prices. Still, some commodity prices are expected to moderate in the months ahead as lower energy costs start to filter through the data, according to Russell Price, a senior economist with Ameriprise Financial.

“That is the lagging impact of petroleum prices,” he said.

The overall C.P.I. was 3.9 percent in the 12 months to September compared with 3.8 percent in August. Gasoline rose 2.9 percent in September, compared with 1.9 percent the month before. Food prices were up 0.4 percent, compared with 0.5 percent in August.

In the 12 months to September, the core C.P.I. was up 2 percent, the same rate as the 12-month period through August.

“The core prices are starting to show that they are easing,” said Chris Christopher, the United States economist for IHS Global Insight. “So hopefully for consumers in particular prices will start moderating significantly.”

The report also showed that the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers increased 4.4 percent over the past 12 months. That measure is used as a basis, in the third quarter, for cost of living adjustments in Social Security payments, which the government said on Wednesday would reflect an increase of 3.6 percent starting in January, the first adjustment since 2009.

Still, Mr. Christopher noted that actual net checks to retirees would probably not rise by that percentage because of increases in Medicare premiums.

“At least it is mitigating,” he said. “It does not really amount to much.”

Government reports released on Wednesday also provided a glimpse of other sectors of the economy, including the job market and the housing sector, which continues to be challenged by financial pressures on households and a large supply of existing homes.

The Federal Reserve said in its beige book, which is a survey of regional economic conditions, that overall economic activity was expanding in September, although many of the 12 districts described growth as “modest” or “slight.”

The beige book reported limited demand for new employees, although some districts noted difficulties finding skilled workers or said that hiring was hampered by an uncertain outlook for business or lower expectations for future growth. Residential construction remained at low levels, it said, particularly for single-family homes, while there was a moderate increase in the building of multi-family dwellings. In contrast, the report said, rental demand continued to rise.

Those observations were consistent with government statistics that showed housing starts, which reflect the commitment of builders and suggest that consumer spending could follow on durable goods, were up 15 percent, mostly for multiple family units. But there was no significant rise in the trend for the start of construction on single family units.

“This is consistent with reports that homebuilder confidence remains severely depressed,” Joshua Shapiro, chief United States economist at MFR, said in a research note.

Celia Chen, a senior director at Moody’s Analytics, said uncertainty about jobs and problems with foreclosures have affected the single family housing sector. Home values have fallen and it is still difficult for many people to get a mortgage.

“Many of the households forming right now are just not going to have the wherewithal to purchase a home,” said Ms. Chen.

“The ownership market faces many headwinds,” she added. “All the strength we are seeing is on the multi-family side.”

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=4646092dcf68de732b08a2c2d934bc0b

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