April 25, 2024

Economix Blog: Uwe E. Reinhardt: Social Insurance and Individual Freedom

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Uwe E. Reinhardt is an economics professor at Princeton. He has some financial interests in the health care field.

The continuing debate over the Affordable Care Act and the commentary on this blog have convinced me that nothing can ever unite Americans on their vision of an ideal health system.

Today’s Economist

Perspectives from expert contributors.

We need different health insurance systems for different Americans. I mean by this not Americans who differ by age or ability to pay but Americans with different notions of a just society.

This is where Germany’s approach to a health insurance system can serve as an inspiration.

Germany’s population of close to 82 million is served by two distinct health insurance systems:

1. The Statutory Health Insurance System, founded in 1883 by Otto von Bismarck and constantly amended over the ensuing century.

2. A private commercial health insurance system.

Germany’s statutory health insurance system is the oldest in the world and has served as a model for many other countries in Europe, Latin America and Asia. In Germany the system consists of 154 (as of July 2011) autonomous, private, nonprofit sickness funds among which individuals can choose freely, which means that the funds compete with one another.

Unlike Americans, who often are limited to networks of providers, Germans have complete freedom of choice of provider under the statutory system.

The sickness funds now provide very comprehensive health insurance to more than 85 percent of the population. They are overseen by boards composed of employers and unions. Their management, however, is strictly regulated by the law, as amended.

Germany’s private insurance system is composed of 46 health companies that are operated on commercial principles, albeit under federal regulations, and provide comprehensive coverage to another 11 percent of the population, including all civil servants, although individuals and families in the statutory system often purchase supplementary coverage (for superior amenities or items not covered by the statutory system).

In 2009, these companies accounted for less than 10 percent of total national health spending in Germany, which amounted to $4,200 per capita in purchasing power parity, slightly more than half of American spending of $7,900, even though Germany’s population is much older on average than ours.

The remainder of Germany’s population (police officers, the military and others) have their own coverage.

Financing the Statutory System

The statutory system is financed on the principle of social solidarity, that is, strictly on the basis of ability to pay. The sketch below illustrates this flow of funds:

Employees covered by the statutory system must pay a nationally uniform contribution to the sickness fund of their choice of 8.2 percent of their gross wages (and pensioners 8.2 percent of their pensions), while employers (or pension funds) must contribute 7.3 percent, for a total contribution of 15.5 percent of gross wages up to a maximum gross wage (or pension) of 44,550 euros, about $59,700. Earnings above that threshold are not subject to this levy.

Unemployed people pay premiums in proportion to their unemployment compensation, unless they are long-term unemployed, in which case the federal government pays the sickness fund a fixed per-capita payment.

The total contribution paid to a sickness fund covers the employee (or pensioner) and any nonworking dependents, except children, for whom insurance coverage is tax-financed by the federal government.

To equalize actuarial risk among the competing sickness funds, Germany operates a national risk-equalization fund (the Gesundheitsfond). The premium contribution rates paid by employees and employers to a sickness fund are immediately transferred to this central fund.

If the employee (or pensioner) then chooses sickness fund A, the central fund pays the chosen sickness fund a capitation that is risk-adjusted for that employee (or pensioner) and the nonworking dependents. The risk-adjustment formula used for that purpose includes age, gender and about 80 indicators of morbidity.

Financing Commercial Insurers

Private insurers draw their financing from per-capita premiums that reflect a person’s age, gender and health status at the time of enrollment but thereafter can be raised only as a function of age, not changing health status. Separate per-capita premiums are levied on dependents in a family.

Recent federal legislation has forced private insurers to levy on younger people higher premiums than their actuarial risk can justify to build up an old-age reserve, thus preventing premiums from climbing too rapidly with age.

Recently the private system has come under a number of new regulations. For more detail on these, readers are referred to the links provided above.

Closing the Door to Statutory Insurance

By law, every German must have coverage for a prescribed benefit package. German employees and pensioners earning less than 49,500 euros ($66,350) per year (in 2011) are compulsorily insured under the statutory system.

Employees and pensioners above that threshold are free to opt out of the statutory system and purchase private, commercial coverage, but if they do, they cannot ever return to the statutory system unless they are paupers. The intent is to minimize gaming of the insurance system by individuals.

It is this feature that intrigues me, as it has my colleague Paul Starr, in his proposed alternative to an individual mandate to be insured.

What if Americans at, say, age 26 (beyond which they can no longer be included on their parents’ insurance policy) or even as late as age 30 were offered the choice of:

1. joining the community-rated health insurance offered through the insurance exchanges called for in the Affordable Care Act;

2. remaining in a private insurance system that is free to charge in any year “actuarially fair” premiums, that is, premiums that reflect the applicant’s projected health status and spending for that year and is free to refuse issuing a policy altogether;

3. simply self-insuring, by remaining uninsured?

For want of better terms, we might call the exchange system the “social insurance track” (because it leans heavily toward social insurance) and the second and third options the “rugged individualist tracks,” because they cater to Americans with individualist preferences.

For people choosing the rugged individualist tracks, Professor Starr proposes to shut the door to the social insurance track for only five years.

I believe his stricture is too weak and propose instead to follow the German example by shutting the door permanently to social insurance to any individual who chose one of the two rugged individualist tracks, unless such individuals were truly pauperized. A return then would have to be allowed, because, for better or for worse, our civic sentiments preclude letting anyone – even a myopic rugged individualist — die for want of critically needed health care.

Admittedly, this approach would confront young Americans with a serious life-cycle choice. But life-cycle choices are made all the time, and choices do have consequences that people in their mid-20s should be mature enough to think about. Adults must realize that individual freedom has its price.

The American health insurance system now is structured as a paradise for clever adolescents, inviting gaming of many sorts that makes sensible health policy almost impossible. It is time to move away from such a system.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=9a721a9eb5ca092fe1935c8b2dbaf360

After Solyndra Case, Ex-Businessman to Review Energy Loans

In enlisting Herbert M. Allison Jr., a former executive who helped the Bush and Obama administrations rescue the financial system, the White House indicated some concern that it needed to get out ahead of the Congressional investigation into the loan portfolio of the Department of Energy and, in particular, the half-billion-dollar loan to the California manufacturer, Solyndra.

But officials also indicated that the White House would oppose any subpoena of additional internal records related to Solyndra. The administration has given more than 70,000 documents to Republicans investigating what they characterize as the first scandal related to the economic-stimulus package early in the Obama administration.

The White House contends that those documents show that the decisions related to Solyndra and other loan recipients were based on merit and made by nonpolitical career staff members following proper procedures.

In a statement, the White House chief of staff, William M. Daley, said Mr. Allison would analyze “the current state of the Department of Energy loan portfolio, focusing on future loan monitoring and management.” Mr. Allison is to issue a public evaluation and any recommendations in 60 days and can bring in outside experts to help him.

Mr. Daley said Mr. Allison was chosen not only for his résumé, but because “he is tough, always tells it like it is.”

Mr. Allison, a former president of Merrill Lynch and former chief executive of the insurance company TIAA-CREF, was tapped by the Bush administration in September 2008, with the financial sector near collapse, to lead the mortgage-finance giant Fannie Mae when it was forced into a government conservatorship. In 2009, he was nominated by President Obama and confirmed by the Senate to be assistant Treasury secretary for financial stability and to oversee the bank bailout, the Troubled Asset Relief Program. He left in September 2010 when it had become evident that big banks would repay their loans, with interest.

Like Mr. Obama, Mr. Daley, in his statement, stressed that the president remained committed to government investments in clean energy, to create jobs and to compete with foreign rivals.

“And while we continue to take steps to make sure the United States remains competitive in the 21st century energy economy, we must also ensure that we are strong stewards of taxpayer dollars,” Mr. Daley said.

The Energy Department program comprises 40 projects worth $36 billion, including guarantees for large nuclear-power loans and for development of electric vehicles.

Scrutiny has focused on a portfolio with a total loan value of about $16 billion that relates to 28 renewable-energy projects at companies engaged in biofuels, wind farms, battery storage, solar energy generation and solar-panel manufacturing like Solyndra was trying before it declared bankruptcy in September. The company, which received $528 million, is also under investigation for possible fraud by the Federal Bureau of Investigation.

On Friday the leaders of the Republican-controlled House Energy and Commerce Committee — Representatives Fred Upton of Michigan, the chairman, and Cliff Stearns of Florida, the chairman of the oversight subcommittee — announced that the committee would meet on Thursday to vote on whether to subpoena internal White House communications related to the Solyndra loan and its restructuring in 2010.

The Republican majority on the committee has been seeking evidence that the White House ordered the Energy Department to approve the loan guarantee to Solyndra, but so far it has mostly found expressions of intense interest from the White House over the timing of the approval.

Specifically, the committee is now seeking communications from the start of the administration involving some of Mr. Obama’s closest advisers. While the White House has not yet tried to exercise executive privilege to withhold material, any subpoenas could prompt a legal showdown with Republicans.

“Subpoenaing the White House is a serious step that, unfortunately, appears to be necessary in light of the Obama administration’s stonewall on Solyndra,” Mr. Upton and Mr. Stearns said in a joint statement.

The White House said it stood by an Oct. 14 letter to the two lawmakers from one of Mr. Obama’s lawyers, Kathryn H. Ruemmler. She wrote that the White House, the Energy and Treasury Departments and the budget office had taken part in nine briefings to Congressional staff, testified at hearings and produced more than 70,000 pages of documents with nothing to indicate “the White House intervened in the Solyndra loan guarantee to benefit a campaign contributor.”

Stopping short of an invocation of executive privilege, Ms. Ruemmler said the committee’s request for more material “implicates longstanding and significant institutional Executive Branch confidentiality interests.”

John M. Broder contributed reporting.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=0527343147df5cdd49907990b256cd06

Rule to Allow Regulators Detailed Look at Big Hedge Funds

WASHINGTON — Large hedge funds, the very private investment outfits that borrow money to magnify their big financial bets, will be required for the first time to report detailed information on their investments and borrowings under a rule adopted by the Securities and Exchange Commission on Wednesday.

But hedge funds and their advocates, after intense lobbying, won several important concessions from the commission’s earlier proposal. The changes call for only the largest funds to report the most detailed information, eliminate any penalty of perjury for misleading reports and delay for six months the initial reports for all but the largest funds.

The data gathered from the new reporting will not be public; only regulators will have access to it.

The filings will come two months after the close of a quarter, instead of the originally proposed 15 days after a quarter’s end. The most detailed information will be required of funds with more than $1.5 billion in assets, rather than $1 billion as originally proposed. Hedge funds will not have to report on individual holdings in their portfolio, as originally contemplated. Instead they will have to report only on aggregate holdings in different types of assets, by the geographic location of their investments and describe how active the fund is in trading its portfolio. Small hedge funds, with less than $150 million in assets, will not have to report any detailed information on their holdings.

The required reporting, which grows out of the financial crisis three years ago, is meant to allow financial regulators to monitor the risks that the funds may pose to the nation’s overall financial system, something that officials at the Federal Reserve, the Treasury Department and the S.E.C. did not have during the crisis.

For now, even the details of what the S.E.C. approved on Wednesday will be confidential. Because the new rules are a joint release with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the S.E.C. won’t make public the form that it approved in a public meeting until after the C.F.T.C. approves it. The commodity commission is expected to vote “within the next week,” the S.E.C. said. The commission could approve the rule in private. A C.F.T.C. spokesman declined to comment.

The data will be visible only to regulators including the Financial Stability Oversight Council, a panel of the top federal financial regulators led by the Treasury secretary, which was created by the Dodd-Frank regulations.

The data collection “follows the lessons learned during the financial crisis — lessons about the importance of monitoring and reducing the possibility that a sudden shock or failure of a financial institution will cascade through the entire financial system,” Mary L. Schapiro, the S.E.C. chairwoman said.

The commission, which now has four sitting members, voted unanimously to approve the rule.

Regulators passed a separate set of requirements this year for hedge funds to provide some information that would be made public. Those regulations required limited disclosures, however, detailing only general information about a fund’s size, its largest investors and the fund’s “gatekeepers,” including its auditors, the brokerage firms that help to execute its trades and the marketers that service the fund.

An S.E.C. official said that the commission might aggregate and publish some data on the size and scope of the hedge fund industry based on the confidential information, but it would not identify individual funds or advisers.

While anonymous information has some benefits, analysts will not have a chance to call attention to specific parts of the industry or individual firms that pose potential risks to themselves, their counterparties or segments of the entire industry.

Still, the new data could highlight industry-wide problems like an over-concentration in one type of investment. Had this data been more widely available before the financial crisis, regulators might have seen the risks posed by a concentration of mortgage-backed securities investments and related instruments that led to the 2008 crisis.

Under the new rules, all hedge funds with more than $500 million or more in assets must disclose how leveraged their investments are — that is, the degree to which the size of the investments are enhanced using borrowed money. It would also look at how liquid, or quickly sold and converted into cash, they are.

Smaller hedge funds, with $150 million to $500 million in assets, will report their general fund strategy, what firms handle their trading and clearing operations, and their counterparty risk — that is, what financial firm is on the other side of complicated bets like derivatives and which could stand to lose if the fund was unable to honor its obligations.

Azam Ahmed contributed reporting from New York.

This article has been revised to reflect the following correction:

Correction: October 26, 2011

An earlier version of this article stated incorrectly when large hedge funds would be required to report information on their holdings. The information is due quarterly, not annually, and within 60 days of the end of the quarter, not 120 days of the end of a fiscal year.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=6a8e120718db0464d2a1ad1b877d9b89

Economix Blog: Bruce Bartlett: The Tax Reform Act of 1986: Should We Do It Again?

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Bruce Bartlett held senior policy roles in the Reagan and George H.W. Bush administrations and served on the staffs of Representatives Jack Kemp and Ron Paul. He is the author of the forthcoming book “The Benefit and the Burden.”

This Saturday is the 25th anniversary of the Tax Reform Act of 1986, signed into law by Ronald Reagan on Oct. 22, 1986. He called it a “revolution” and “the most sweeping overhaul of our tax code in our nation’s history.”

Today’s Economist

Perspectives from expert contributors.

Reagan was especially pleased that “millions of the working poor will be dropped from the tax rolls altogether” and that rich people and big corporations would “pay their fair share.” The law was indeed a major accomplishment, one that Reagan had every right to be proud of.

But with the passage of time, it appears far less consequential than it did at the time. Although some aspects of the law remain part of our tax system, others were jettisoned with unseemly haste. The experience raises serious questions about the long-term effects of tax reform that those favoring an overhaul today would do well to learn from.

At least on the Republican side of the political spectrum, there is a widespread belief that tax reform is the key to growth. The Republican leadership also contends that the only reform that really matters is cutting the top tax rate for individuals and corporations. It is practically impossible to find a Republican willing to put a specific tax preference — exclusion, deduction, credit or loophole — on the table for elimination.

Of course, many Republicans will proclaim a willingness to wipe the slate clean and abolish all tax preferences. But they always seem to find a couple of exceptions. Herman Cain, for example, whose 9-9-9 plan I discussed last week, would continue to allow a deduction for charitable contributions. In the Cain plan there is no personal exemption, no child credit, no earned income tax credit or any other provision aiding families or the poor — but museums of modern art, Ivy League universities and public television stations would still be able to receive contributions that were tax deductible.

Historically, wipe-the-slate-clean plans have always foundered when squeaky wheels insisted on one little exception. Mortgage interest is a common one. Homeowners are a major Republican constituency, and even if they might be willing to give up the mortgage interest deduction in return for lower rates, few want to see the value of their principal asset fall further in value.

This would almost certainly happen if the mortgage interest deduction were abolished, because its value is capitalized into home prices — people are willing to pay higher prices and can afford larger mortgage payments due to interest deductibility. If the deduction were withdrawn, many homeowners would find renting to be more attractive.

But once one makes an exception for mortgage interest or charitable contributions in a radical tax reform plan, how does a politician say no to those who fear they will lose medical insurance if its tax exclusion is abolished, or those who live in high-tax states like New York where the deduction for state and local taxes is critical?

Once politicians make any exceptions to wiping the slate clean, they are on a slippery slope, because those benefiting from the next most popular deduction will be standing in line demanding an exception, too.

For these reasons, all tax reform plans premised on completely throwing out the tax code and starting from scratch are hopelessly utopian, with not the remotest possibility that any of them will ever be enacted. And support for them is not costless. Because so much political energy is channeled into the Fair Tax, the flat tax, the 9-9-9 plan and other proposals, very little is left over for changes that fall short of tearing the tax code out by its roots but are still needed.

The 1986 law was never about starting from scratch. It was about making progress, improving the tax code and accomplishing something at the end of the day that was worth doing. Yet despite the relative modesty of the goal, it was still extraordinarily difficult to accomplish and could easily have fallen apart on many occasions during the process. It succeeded, in large part, because of factors no longer present in our political system.

First, there was a tradition of tax reform, as was accomplished in the tax reform acts of 1969 and 1976, which concentrated on eliminating tax loopholes that only benefited special interests. This was considered a good idea per se, even if tax rates were not cut in the process. Today, such reforms would be viewed as tax increases and impermissible under the “tax pledge” that Republicans are dogmatically committed to.

Second, Republican tax reformers of the 1980s, such as Representative Jack Kemp of New York and Senator Bob Kasten of Wisconsin, were willing to put specific tax preferences on the table for elimination and take the heat for doing so.

Reagan built on their efforts and put forward a very detailed plan for tax reform in May 1985, based on several years of work by the Treasury Department, that identified a long list of tax provisions needing pruning from the tax code, along with supporting analysis and documentation.

Today, Republicans like Mr. Cain put most of their efforts into devising catchy slogans and almost none into providing details of their tax proposals.

Third, bipartisanship wasn’t a dirty word in the 1980s. The 1986 law would have been impossible if the Republican chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, Bob Packwood of Oregon, and the Democratic chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, Dan Rostenkowski of Illinois, weren’t committed to the effort and willing to work closely, compromising, making deals and splitting differences in a way that Congressional Republicans and Democrats are incapable of doing today.

In the end, the key compromise that made the 1986 law work was Reagan’s willingness to raise the capital gains tax to 28 percent from 20 percent in return for dropping the top income tax rate to 28 percent from 50 percent.

Today, Republicans like Mr. Cain make abolition of the capital gains tax a key element of their tax reform efforts. It’s hard to imagine that they would ever support a deal like the one Reagan took such pride in.

Even so, critical elements of the 1986 law fell apart almost immediately. The top rate was raised to 31 percent in 1990, while the capital gains rate stayed at 28 percent. Thus both liberals and conservatives lost out, and the dream of treating all income the same and taxing it at a low flat rate went up in smoke. According to the Tax Policy Center, the aggregate size of tax expenditures began rising almost as soon as the ink was dry on the 1986 law.

Nevertheless, the fact that the weeds will grow back is no reason to never prune a garden. One has to take a stab at it once in a while or eventually be surrounded by a jungle of ugly plants. That there is no once-and-for-all solution to it, or to the problems of the tax code, is a poor reason not to at least try to clean up from time to time.

Based on the experience of the 1986 law, the essential prerequisite for doing another tax reform like it is for President Obama to put a detailed plan on the table, as Reagan did, backed by extensive research and analysis from the Treasury Department. Reagan kicked off his effort in the 1984 State of the Union address. Obama’s 2012 address would be an appropriate occasion for him to do the same.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=b03e80ff6047808d40a2cf600e6a9c37

In Rare Miss, Apple Earnings Disappoint

After several record quarters, the July-to-September period saw Apple biding its time, with no new iPhone or iPad releases.

Earnings and revenue rose from last year at rates that would be the envy of any large company, but investors had expected the seemingly unstoppable company to do even better.

Net income in the fiscal fourth quarter was $6.62 billion, or $7.05 per share. That was up 54 percent from $4.31 billion, or $4.64 per share, a year ago.

Analysts polled by FactSet were expecting earnings of $7.28 per share.

Revenue was $28.3 billion, up 39 percent. Analysts were expecting $29.4 billion.

Apple sold 17.1 million iPhones in the quarter, which ended Sept. 24. That was well below analyst expectations and the 20.3 million sold in the third quarter.

IPhone buyers had been holding off and waiting for the new model that was launched last week, after the end of the quarter. Still, analysts expected the older models to keep much of their appeal.

Laptops were Apple’s strongest category in the quarter, with sales up 30 percent from the previous quarter thanks to the release of a new operating system, Lion. Total Mac sales set an all-time record at 4.9 million.

Apple’s forecast for the current quarter was more pleasing to investors. It said it expects earnings of $9.30 per share and revenue of $37 billion. Apple usually low-balls its forecasts, and analyst figures are usually higher. But in this case, analysts have had lower figures, expecting earnings of $9 per share and revenue of $36.7 billion.

Jobs relinquished his position as CEO in August, after going on medical leave in January. He died Oct. 5 after years of battling pancreatic cancer.

Apple’s stock was down $24.33, or 5.8 percent, at $397.91 in afterhours trading, losing one week of gains. At the close of regular trading, it was the world’s most valuable company, but the stock drop means it’s yielding the position to Exxon Mobil Corp.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=7b4940a5035daac1ff52ca995106e2f0

Environmental Rules Force Luxury Brands to Downsize

But with new environmental regulations staring them in the face, luxury carmakers are trying on a new set of values — smaller, humbler and more fuel-efficient — that might shock a large-barge traditionalist.

Downsizing is the rage among luxury cars, from slimmed-down bodies to smaller four-cylinder engines and hybrid or electric power.

Land Rover’s striking, $44,000 Range Rover Evoque crossover is the lightest, most fuel-efficient Rover in history. Powered by a turbocharged four-cylinder rather than a beefy V-8, the Evoque earns a federal highway rating of 28 m.p.g.

Lexus bills its CT 200h as the world’s first compact luxury hybrid hatchback. BMW plans to begin leasing small numbers of its Active E, an all-electric version of its perky 1 Series coupe, in urban markets. Small sedans, crossovers or hatchbacks are in the works from Cadillac, Mercedes, Lincoln, Porsche and more.

Even an imposing sport sedan, the exotically styled Fisker Karma, goes for a tiny game-changer under the hood: A two-liter G.M. four-cylinder mated to a plug-in hybrid system, good for 403 total horsepower.

In some ways, industry downsizing is a do-it-or-else proposition. A federal target of 54.5 m.p.g. by 2025, along with anticipated carbon dioxide emissions rules in Europe, have even deluxe brands scrambling to increase fuel efficiency.

But a question remains: Shy of $6-a-gallon gasoline, are enough Americans willing to spend big bucks on a little car?

Smaller luxury cars, many powered by frugal diesels, have proliferated in Europe. But Americans have rarely seen the point of buying less car, especially when a roomier version can be had for roughly the same price.

“We’re still a bit in the experiment stage,” said Jeff Schuster, director of forecasting for J. D. Power Associates.

The list of America’s most notorious luxury failures is littered with small, entry-priced models. Lower the bar too far in styling, features or power, and American critics and buyers quickly sniff out a designer impostor.

In the ’80s, Cadillac dressed up a rattletrap Chevrolet Cavalier and called it the Cimarron. Consumers weren’t fooled.

Cadillac will look to correct that mistake with the ATS sedan, a taut-bodied BMW 3 Series fighter that goes on sale next year. Caddy is also developing a compact plug-in hybrid based on the Chevrolet Volt’s system.

As with the Cimarron, a cut-rate luxury car can tarnish the image of an entire brand. That’s what happened when Jaguar — desperate for its own entry-level rival to the BMW 3 Series — disguised a Ford Mondeo sedan with leather and a feline “leaper” badge and tried to pass off the shoddy result as the 2001 X-Type. The Jag later joined the Cimarron on a Time magazine list of the 50 worst cars of all time.

Yet automakers and analysts say that much has changed. Soaring fuel prices and concerns over climate change have even wealthy customers checking their wallets or questioning consumption.

Mr. Schuster notes that, in contrast to the social climbers of yesteryear — conspicuously rebadged versions of mainstream models — new versions tend to be sophisticated, stand-alone designs. The success of BMW’s Mini has also helped make the market safe for premium small cars, for both automakers and buyers.

For Mercedes, the German automaker has long restricted its affordable, front-drive A-Class hatchback and B-Class minivan to foreign markets, suspecting that Americans would reject these practical-yet-frumpy machines.

But Mercedes has radically revamped these small cars with Americans in mind. At New York’s auto show in April, Mercedes showed a stunning A-Class concept, which along with a more-stylish B-Class, is being readied for America in 2013. Small four-cylinder turbo engines will power those models, which analysts expect will start around $30,000, and Mercedes plans hybrid or electric variants.

“If you’re half-hearted about downsizing, people perceive that model as being less,” said Donna Boland, a spokeswoman for Mercedes. “But these cars will be every inch a Mercedes.”

For leading luxury brands, entry-priced sedans or crossovers at roughly $30,000 to $50,000 — including the 3 Series, Audi Q5 and Mercedes C-Class — have become crucial drivers of sales and profits. But as these cars have grown larger and costlier, automakers see a fertile niche just below and a chance to capture younger buyers, perhaps for life.

As Mercedes developed its premium small-car strategy, the automaker identified a mass of buyers from Generation X and Y entering peak earning years of roughly age 40 to 54, even as baby boomers eased into retirement.

“This is a different buyer group than what we’ve dealt with for decades, with different ideas on what and how they want to drive,” Ms. Boland said.

The numbers appear promising. J. D. Power projects sales of small premium cars to reach 450,000 by 2015, from just 100,000 in 2005. Pint-size models would account for nearly one in five luxury sales, up from one in 20 in 2005.

Perhaps no car symbolizes the changing order like the Aston Martin Cygnet. The British ultraluxury brand, famed for six-figure Grand Touring cars, has given the Toyota iQ, a tiny city car in the vein of the Smart, an opulent makeover. The resulting Cygnet, powered by a mere 1.3-liter engine, is on sale in Europe for about $48,000. Aston may consider bringing the microcar to big-city markets here in coming years.

Since the negative fallout over the X-Type, Jaguar has never again tried a compact model. But Ian Callum, Jaguar’s influential chief designer, has acknowledged the lineup’s glaring lack of a small sedan or crossover and suggests those holes may soon be filled.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/14/automobiles/environmental-rules-force-luxury-brands-to-downsize.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Mutual Funds Dragged Down by Global Economic Unease

Then, in the third quarter, the weight of many unanswered questions, mainly about the economic recovery’s staying power and the soundness of Europe’s financial system, dragged stocks sharply lower.

The 14.3 percent decline in the Standard Poor’s 500-stock index in the three months through September was the worst quarterly loss since 2008 and left the index down 10 percent since the start of 2011. Treasury bonds, often a haven in difficult times, went in the opposite direction, recording double-digit gains and pushing yields on 10-year instruments as low as 1.7 percent.

The catalyst for both moves, an ironic one at that, appeared to be S. P.’s downgrade of Treasury debt in early August after a rancorous debate in Congress over federal spending left no clear path to long-term deficit reduction. The deterioration of Europe’s debt crisis added to the downward momentum, as a resolution of Greece’s problems remained elusive, raising fears of default.

Perhaps even more unsettling to investors was the prospect of contagion in Europe — a wider destabilization of treasuries and banks in the region resulting from anticipation of just such a calamity. In this picture, investors spooked by events in Greece would sell bonds elsewhere, driving up interest rates and adding to debtors’ stress.

The chance that these economic woes will derail an already fragile global economic recovery, spread alarm in the stock market. Yet there was more. Political stability in pockets of the Middle East and North Africa remained in doubt, as did China’s ability to maintain strong economic growth while controlling inflation. And supply-chain disruptions for manufacturers in certain industries, a remnant of the March tsunami in Japan, continued to cause concern.

“There are crisis situations all over the world,” said David Marcus, chief investment officer of Evermore Global Advisors. “Investors have been in panic mode, selling indiscriminately without regard to value. They want out at any price.”

When assets are sold at any price, they become cheap. And that has indeed happened to stocks, some investment advisers contend, which were trading at about 12 times earnings as the quarter ended, compared with a long-run average of closer to 15. Buying now may not make for a peaceful night’s sleep, but it could result in healthy gains for the long term, they say.

“There is an absolute fear of having money exposed to anything that can fluctuate in value,” said David Steinberg, managing partner of DLS Capital Management. Investors who take a chance now “are going to be rewarded once the dust clears,” he predicted. “There is a very high probability of high returns and a low probability of losing a lot on a long-term basis.”

In the short term, though, fund investors have lost a lot. The average domestic stock fund in Morningstar’s database fell 16.2 percent in the third quarter.

Funds focusing on cyclical industrial companies, financial services and natural resources were among the weakest performers. Those with concentrations in consumer-oriented companies and utilities lost ground, but less than average.

International stock funds, down 18.3 percent, fared worse than domestic ones and were dragged down by a 23.7 percent decline in Europe portfolios.

Taken as a whole, bond funds were little changed in the quarter, down 0.6 percent, but there were exceptions. The persistent appetite for the perceived safety of Treasury bonds sent long-term government bond funds to an average gain of 26.9 percent.

Conditions may improve for the long haul, but ponderous progress on major issues could bring more pain in the short run. Rick Rieder, chief investment officer for actively managed fixed-income portfolios at BlackRock, says, for example, that he foresees no immediate end to Europe’s crisis.

And as much as that might unnerve investors, however, it wouldn’t be such a bad thing, in Mr. Rieder’s view. Keeping Greece on the brink as a financial zombie could give governments, central banks and commercial banks time to arrange credit lines to keep financial systems going and institutions solvent.

“They might want to drag it out to give banks a chance to raise capital,” he said.

He distinguished between countries that have sound economies but potential trouble meeting obligations today, like Italy and Spain, and weaker ones like Greece, Ireland and Portugal that may never be able to pay their debts in full. If the bigger, stronger countries are given enough time, he predicted, “the markets will allow them to refinance themselves.”

Time is also a factor in the quandary over the federal deficit. The clock is ticking toward the November deadline for a bipartisan panel to find more than $1 trillion in spending cuts that Congress must approve; if it doesn’t do so, automatic cuts are to be imposed.

While investors would welcome a broad plan for deficit reduction, they would prefer that Congress approve some meaningful belt-tightening today and put it into effect tomorrow, especially now that Europe is taking a stab at fiscal prudence, said Iain Clark, international chief investment officer for Henderson Global Investors.

“If Europe and the U.S. both do it immediately,” Mr. Clark said, “they will be more likely to head into a recession than they already are.”

Time can be an ally to investors in another way. With valuations so low on stocks but uncertainty too great to push them higher, Mr. Rieder encouraged anyone who could commit capital for several years to consider buying stocks with high dividend yields. Then they could wait out the unsettling present until a brighter future emerged. “Nobody doubts that if you take a long-term perspective, they are attractive,” he said.

He advised bond investors to avoid Treasury securities in favor of “parts of the market that we still think make sense,” including longer-dated high-yield bonds, high-quality municipal bonds and investment-grade corporate issues.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=f0b22dda46872a28987e90fe4f5bc9af

Economix Blog: U.S. Still Dominates in Research Universities

Next time you get depressed thinking about the state of the American education system, just visualize this chart:

DESCRIPTIONSource: O.E.C.D. and SCImago Research Group (CSIC) (forthcoming), Report on Scientific Production, based on Scopus Custom Data, Elsevier, June 2011. Statlink http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/888932485310

The chart, based on new data from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, shows the distribution of the top 50 universities for a range of disciplines. Rankings are based on citations of work coming from each university’s department.

The darker blue bars at the bottom of the chart refer to American universities. And as you can see, at least at the post-secondary level, we still have some top-notch schools.

In fact, for every discipline shown except for the social sciences, a majority of major research institutions are in the United States. Even in the social sciences a plurality of the top departments are based in the United States.

Across all disciplines shown, 80 percent of the top research departments are in the United States. The next-highest share is in Britain (light blue bars), which is host to 10 percent of the world’s top research departments.

American tertiary education dominance may not last forever, though.

The share of residents who hold doctorates is lower in the United States than in many other countries, as shown in the chart below. Indeed — partly because the rest of the American education system is so weak — many of the students attending American doctorate programs are visiting from abroad.

As other countries devote larger shares of their economies to research and development, the world’s top students may see new educational opportunities at home. And they may not bother reinfusing America’s university system with new talent.

DESCRIPTIONSource: OECD (2011), Education at a Glance 2011: OECD Indicators, and OECD (2009), Education at a Glance 2009: OECD Indicators, OECD Publishing, Paris. http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/888932485728

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=e79eb0f169adecd16dce20fc0f713d2e

Corner Office | David Barger: Early Access as a Fast Track to Learning

Q. Do you remember the first time you were somebody’s boss?

A. It was back in the ’80s, and I was at New York Air. I was manager of stations and then director of stations. I can remember it like it was yesterday, because all of a sudden you have an awful lot of direct reports and pretty dynamic change. It was a shock to my system, because you didn’t have years to really build the tools in your tool kit. At the same time, there was tremendous access to the leaders of the company, so you had great visibility. I think I’ve learned over time to try to expose as many potential leaders to situations as early as possible, because it really helps to build your experience for when you do move into that chair.

Q. What were some other important leadership lessons? Any particular mentors?

A. For me, it wasn’t so much about being mentored by an individual, because I was moving so fast through the organization. But again, just having the exposure and access was so important. As a young manager, to have access literally to the top of the organization was very memorable for me, because it helped set the framework at the highest levels about the behaviors that were needed and the goals that were being created.

Q. What else?

A. You have to be able to simplify things that are complex. At the end of the day, if the 13,000 people on the front lines don’t understand what you’re trying to do, forget it. You don’t stand a chance of making it work. I love the Oliver Wendell Holmes quote: “I would not give a fig for the simplicity this side of complexity, but I would give my life for the simplicity on the other side of complexity.”

Q. Give me an example.

A. We got the board together four years ago to discuss best practices and strategy. Out of that, we ended with 23 objectives, four pathways. You name it — we had some interesting terms. Fast forward, and the 23 became 14 in Year 2, then 10 in Year 3, and we crystallized them into two — culture and offerings. We have to get a little more specific when we talk about culture, of course, like preserving a direct relationship with our crew or building talent into the organization. These used to be stand-alone objectives. But it’s just so much easier now to communicate the two and then to get more specific, as necessary. It’s been very helpful. People on the front lines know what you want them to do, and it’s easier to set the expectations.

Q. How do you talk about leadership within the company?

A. We teach principles of leadership on a regular basis, to supervisors and above. The module I teach is, “Inspiring Greatness in Others,” and we talk a lot about how we each have a silhouette that comes to life. And, as the silhouette comes to life, it’s as much about what you’re doing, the body language, as what you’re saying. There’s a lot of lessons to be learned by watching others make a mistake. And I’ve certainly seen that, in the past. It could be leaders coming in and the next thing you know they’re not visiting the cockpit, they’re not saying hi in the galley, they’re not going to the baggage service office, they’re not stopping by the ticket counter. It doesn’t take a lot. People know you’re there. Go see them. Be present.

Q. What are some other takeaways from your session?

A. There are several, but here’s a few more: Be mindful that there is incredible leadership all around you. Go find it. Go tap it. Go mine it. And here’s a key question: would you want to report to yourself? It’s little things, too. When you say hi to somebody, do you mean it, or is it just a casual comment?

Q. Any leadership insights you’ve gained in the last couple of years?

A. We have executive coaches we’ve used over the last couple of years. The message was, enough consensus building. When it’s time to make a decision and your team’s not making the decision, make the decision. I don’t think I ever was reticent in terms of making a decision. But, as I look back, there were plenty of examples where the team was looking at an issue but not getting a final decision. I think it’s probably the most formative feedback I’ve been given — that it’s fine to be the consensus builder, and I know that’s where I lean in terms of my leadership DNA, but now I am more comfortable saying, “This is what we’re going to do. Next topic.”

Q. Let’s shift to hiring. What are you looking for? What questions do you ask?

A. To me, what’s most important, beyond the skill set, is the organizational fit — does the person truly understand what we’re trying to accomplish here. I want somebody who’s comfortable in a conference room, but at the same time will board an airplane and introduce himself or herself to the customers.

We have specific questions for interviews about past experiences, which are the best predictors of future behavior, and they’re tied to our values — safety, caring, integrity, fun and passion. We truly ask people about past experiences with those five words in mind and try to lift out of the conversation whether they are the right fit for the organization.

Q. How would you summarize your leadership philosophy?

A. I think the best leaders are teachers and they’re truly taking the time to explain a balance sheet or a fuel hedging policy or other things. You’re teaching. You’re not just doing and communicating what you’re doing — you’re teaching people why you’re doing it. And I really believe in giving people the opportunity to have access. There’s got to be other people within JetBlue who can run this company who are not just my direct reports. They’re in the organization and they’ve got great careers ahead of them. I also believe in leading from the back of the room, and watching people in the company who are stepping up to teach others.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=01d3436e9d29b783404fa9e41e4df552

I.H.T. Special Report: Global Agenda: To Limit Turmoil, Focus Turns to Fighting Joblessness

That is why, when policy makers and economists meet in Washington this week for the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, unemployment will be prominent on the agenda.

After all, the ultimate measure of economic success is not whether the stock or bond markets go up — though it sometimes seems that way — but rather whether a society can provide jobs for its citizens. A society that fails will see other problems multiply in the form of political unrest, sinking tax revenue and soaring debt.

Greece, which is threatening to undermine the global financial system, is a prime example. An underlying cause of its debt problem is the country’s dysfunctional economy and an ossified job market that keeps out newcomers and outsiders.

“The Greek labor market clearly plays a huge role,” said Jacob Funk Kierkegaard, an economist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. “Greece is totally overregulated and systemically corrupt. Everybody is a protected group. You clearly need to get rid of that.”

Likewise, it is no accident that the countries in the Middle East and North Africa where political unrest has flared have some of the highest rates of youth unemployment in the world, with young people nearly four times as likely to be jobless as adults, according to the International Labor Organization in Geneva. An unusually high number of the unemployed are well educated.

The long-term success of uprisings that toppled strongmen in Egypt, Tunisia and Libya will probably depend in large part on whether the new governments can provide jobs for the frustrated young people who propelled regime change.

For that reason, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, which is financed by 61 countries, including the United States, has put a priority on creating jobs as it expands its involvement to North Africa after the Arab Spring.

“The No. 1 focus is going to be on small and medium-size enterprises and employment, creating new jobs and meaningful jobs,” said Erik Berglof, chief economist of the European Bank.

But it is the industrialized countries, not the poor nations, that have the biggest growth in unemployment. Developed countries account for 15 percent of the world’s labor force but more than half the number of newly jobless since 2007, according to the International Labor Organization.

Unemployment, said Prakash Loungani, an adviser in the research department of the I.M.F. in Washington, “is an advanced-country problem.”

This does not mean that workers in the United States or Europe are going to start migrating to emerging markets for jobs. Working people in emerging countries are often extremely poor. Nearly 40 percent, or 1.2 billion people, earn less than $2 a day.

It is the prospect of a better job that drives huge numbers of poor people to risk their lives in treks to Europe or the United States, where the influx of immigrants can raise political tensions.

While the number of people migrating in search of work has declined during the global downturn, developed countries “remain attractive,” said Thomas Liebig, who studies migration at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development in Paris. “The gap is still pretty large.”

High growth rates mean that employment in emerging countries is at least going in the right direction. That is not true of many developed economies. Just ask President Obama, whose re-election may depend on whether the United States unemployment rate starts to go down.

Few large countries have had better success than Germany. Unemployment has plunged to 6.2 percent from a peak of 10.6 percent in 2005. One reason is a series of policies that loosened job protections and put more pressure on unemployed people to find work.

Niki Kitsantonis contributed reporting from Athens.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=b78373fadef66ef59939e43c541eb843