April 19, 2024

NBC’s Ratings Plummet From First to Worst

The ratings of last September through December, when NBC shocked the television industry by winning 13 of 15 weeks, have dissipated to numbers so small they have not been seen before by any broadcast network — certainly not during a rating period known as a sweeps month, when networks present their strongest programming.

When the official numbers are completed Thursday, NBC will finish this sweeps month not only far behind its regular network competitors, but also well behind the Spanish-language Univision. No broadcast network has ever before finished a television season sweeps month in fifth place.

NBC executives expected a falloff after the N.F.L. season, but last December they expressed hope that some momentum could be sustained. Now, the network is playing by the silver-linings playbook.

“This February was tough, but thankfully the fall did as well as it did,” said Jeff Bader, the chief scheduling executive for NBC. “If we had the fall we were expecting — which was an improvement, but not to be No. 1 — this month would have been a lot harder to take. This is just frustrating.”

It is also likely to be costly. NBC executives previously acknowledged that their entertainment operation has been losing hundreds of millions a year. The financial picture is exacerbated by the dearth of popular shows NBC owns that it can sell in syndication, an area that generates hundreds of millions in profits for competitors, especially CBS.

Advertising executives note that ratings this month on many shows are so low they may force NBC to offer a spate of what are known as make-goods — free commercials to cover shortfalls from rating guarantees. And in less than three months NBC must unveil a new schedule for advertisers, one that will emphasize the improvements of last fall, but will also contain a short list of holdover shows with attractive ratings to sell. That will put great pressure on the lineup of new shows NBC selects.

The network’s prime-time record this month is a litany of ratings sorrows: Shows that looked like hits last fall, like the new comedy “Go On,” have collapsed. New shows, like the comedy “1600 Penn,” started weak and have fallen fast. NBC even had the lowest-rated new network drama of all time, “Do No Harm,” which was rated 0.9 in the 18-49 category for its premiere this month and fell to 0.7 in its second week.

It was canceled after two episodes.

Perhaps more painful, because it was the favorite project of NBC’s top programmer, Robert Greenblatt, has been the fate of the Broadway drama “Smash.” Introduced last winter with great expectations — and a hugely expensive promotion campaign — “Smash” returned three weeks ago to audience indifference. Last week’s episode could not eke out even a 1 rating among viewers aged 18 through 49, the audience NBC sells to advertisers.

Over all, the network’s ratings have fallen so far that no episode of any show on NBC in February came within one million viewers of a show on PBS: “Downton Abbey.” And forget approaching the numbers of a cable hit like AMC’s “The Walking Dead.”

Nothing NBC has put on in prime time has matched even the appeal of the “Talking Dead,” a show with people simply discussing “The Walking Dead.” That show managed a 2.2 rating in the 18-49 audience. NBC’s best prime-time number for the month has been a 2.1, achieved by episodes of “The Biggest Loser” and “The Office,” a comedy that is about to go off the air.

Remarkably, the best-rated show on NBC all month has been “Saturday Night Live,” which produced two original versions in February, both times hitting a 2.3 rating, topping everything else on the network. “SNL,” though, is not even in prime time — and it is 38 years old.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/25/business/media/nbcs-ratings-plummet-from-first-to-worst.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

On Wall St., a Big Split on Outlook

Typically bullish in the best of times, this group has barely budged on its expectations for earnings in the second half of 2011, even as the economists and strategists at the big brokerage firms have steadily ratcheted down their forecasts for overall economic growth.

That disconnect could prove painful for investors. On Friday, shares of Hewlett-Packard were punished after the technology giant reported results below analysts’ projections and warned them to bring down future numbers. Earlier in the week, similar shortfalls caused shares of Dell and Urban Outfitters to sink.

The 17 percent drop in the Standard Poor’s 500-stock index since late July suggests investors already suspect earnings growth may not be as robust as forecast when the summer began. But if more analysts start cutting their estimates in the coming weeks, that could provide yet another incentive for traders to sell.

Investors are clearly anxious. Stocks fell more than 4 percent last week as the wild swings on Wall Street continued, including a 419-point drop for the Dow Jones industrial average on Thursday.

“Absolutely, the numbers look too high to us,” said Doug Cliggott, a United States equity strategist at Credit Suisse. “In the last two or three weeks, we’ve had a slew of data showing our growth could be slowing a lot more than expected.”

All this means that September could be a make-or-break month for the stock market. “A lot of Wall Street folks come back after Labor Day and sharpen their pencils,” said Adam Parker, United States equity strategist at Morgan Stanley.

When they do return, they will have plenty of numbers to crunch that suggest a further slowdown is possible. On Friday, the Labor Department reported that unemployment rose in 28 states and the District of Columbia in July, while it fell in only nine states. A day earlier, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia announced that manufacturing activity in the mid-Atlantic region shrank sharply in August.

Traders will be closely watching a range of figures due out this week for more signs of a so-called double-dip recession. On Tuesday, the government is to report on sales of new homes for July, followed by a report on durable goods orders on Wednesday. Data on initial jobless claims and consumer sentiment in August will follow later in the week.

In spite of the lackluster economic numbers in recent weeks, analysts’ expectations for earnings growth of the typical company in the Standard Poor’s 500-stock index have edged downward only slightly. The current consensus for the third quarter calls for 15.6 percent earnings growth, not far from the 17 percent analysts forecast on July 1, according to data compiled by Thomson Reuters.

In the fourth quarter, analysts expect growth of 17 percent, just 0.6 of a percentage point below where the projections were at the beginning of July.

By contrast, economists at the big brokerage houses have been busy slashing their projections for overall growth, with JPMorgan Chase weighing in on Friday while Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs trimmed their numbers the day before. JPMorgan now expects fourth-quarter economic growth to be 1 percent, down from an earlier projection of 2.5 percent. Morgan Stanley warned that the United States and Europe were “dangerously close to recession.”

While they may work for the same bank, analysts and economists don’t necessarily see eye to eye.

In the argot of Wall Street, broad economic growth projections are called top-down forecasts because they incorporate a wide range of macroeconomic factors, like manufacturing output and the unemployment rate.

That contrasts with the bottom-up estimates arrived at by tallying the earnings projections of analysts who follow individual companies. The two groups usually work independently — and can project different results.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=d1f42225c0bfc049596503fe1a482d34

Green: ‘Green’ Economy Is Real but Needs a Push, Study Suggests

Green: Business

Like so many buzz phrases, “green economy” is an expression that is generously tossed around with little regard for its meaning.

In his State of the Union address in January, President Obama stressed the importance of nurturing America’s green economy to “strengthen our security, protect our planet and create countless new jobs for our people.” For something said to be so crucial to growth and economic renewal, however, surprisingly little is actually known about the nature, size and growth of the green economy.

The Brookings Institution, in collaboration with the Technology Partnership Program of the research and development company Battelle, has compiled what it describes as one of the most comprehensive and up-to-date analyses of the nation’s enigmatic green economy.

The report, “Sizing the Clean Economy,” collected data from every county and major metropolitan areas in the United States from 2003 to 2010. Defining a “green” or “clean” economy as the sector that produces goods and services with an environmental benefit, the study amassed numbers on mascots of green like wind, solar and hydropower and less glamorous sectors like public mass transit and waste management and treatment.

One point the report makes is that while green initiatives are driving growth and innovation, market and policy challenges are preventing them from reaching their full potential. Those obstacles include policy gaps that undercut market demand, shortfalls in financing that lead to uncertainty and instability for investors, and an inadequate system for supporting innovation.

According to the report, the green economy employed 2.7 million people in 2010, or about 2 percent of the American workforce.

To put this number into some perspective, the health care sector, the largest private job provider in the nation, employs 13.8 million people, or 10.2 percent. Despite its relatively modest size, the green economy is still larger than the fossil fuels sector (2.4 million jobs) or the biosciences sector (1.4 million jobs).

Over the last seven years, the green economy has grown at a rate of 3.4 percent, trailing the 4.2 percent growth achieved over all, but still noteworthy given the disproportionate impact of the housing crisis on the green sector. (Many housing and construction-related companies can be classified under the green rubric.)

The report also found that the green economy weathered the recession better than the nation’s economy did as a whole.

Where the green economy excels is at providing the kind of well-paid, low-skill jobs that are often lamented to be leaving the United States, the study suggests. These “green collar” jobs are manufacturing-heavy and export-driven and represent a substantial source of growth.

One of the most surprising findings, said Jonathan Rothwell, a senior research analyst at Brookings, was where some of the largest and fastest-growing regional green economies are found.

“Albany-Shenectady, New York emerged as the metropolitan region with the highest percentage of green jobs and the fifth-fastest growing green economy in the nation,” he said. General Electric, for example, is based in Albany and has opened innovative battery factories and started other green initiatives there.

One of the greatest challenge facing the growth and development of the green economy, however, is that companies with promising patented ideas that have proven themselves in small-scale test production simply cannot secure the financing they need to scale up production.

“The same risky and breakthrough nature of these products that make them so exciting and attractive for scientists and venture capitalists, is what repels large investment banks which feel like they can’t invest in a product unless it has a proven track record,” Mr. Rothwell said.

To combat this financing obstacle, Mr. Rothwell advocates scaling up the Department of Energy’s loan guarantee program, and, more ambitiously, creating a tech fund that would parallel what crop insurance was for the agricultural industry.

Such a program would further the development of new green initiatives but take the risk out of investing in them for the first few years by offering different types of insurance until they demonstrated their long-term viability.

“The important take-away message here is that the green economy is real and it’s growing, but it needs some encouragement to live up to all the expectations,” Mr. Rothwell said.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=570dc60556521f849a007dfa25938519