March 29, 2024

Summers Pulls Name From Consideration for Fed Chief

After weeks of opposition to his candidacy from an array of progressives, the president’s inability to rally Congressional Democrats on Syria persuaded Mr. Summers that his most important audience — the Senate, which must confirm a Fed chairman — probably could not be won over.

He concluded that the White House was also unlikely to overcome opposition to his candidacy from many of the same Democrats, who view him as an opponent of stronger financial regulation, according to supporters who insisted on anonymity to describe confidential conversations with him.

“Clearly Obama couldn’t bring his own most enthusiastic supporters to back him on an issue of national security,” one supporter said. “How was he going to corral them for Larry?”

Mr. Summers’s decision, which he shared with the president in a phone call Sunday followed by a letter, was described as reluctantly made and reluctantly accepted. Mr. Summers wanted the job and Mr. Obama wanted to pick him. But the public opposition of three Democrats on the Senate banking committee, the first step in the confirmation process, surprised the White House and forced a calculation that this was a battle the administration could not afford to fight.

The embarrassing setback reveals an administration increasingly hamstrung by occasional opposition of liberal Democrats, not just its familiar Republican opponents. It adds to the rocky nature of Mr. Obama’s fifth year, following the failure of a gun-rights bill, the stalling of an immigration overhaul and the lack of progress on a budget deal, on top of the back-and-forth over whether to conduct airstrikes in Syria to punish the Assad regime for a poison gas attack that killed hundreds of civilians.

The withdrawal of Mr. Summers also leaves great uncertainty around the selection of a new Fed chairman, one of the most important economic policy decisions Mr. Obama will make in his second term. The successor to Ben S. Bernanke, the current chair, will shape how much longer and harder the Fed pushes to boost economic growth and reduce unemployment. The next Fed chairman will play a leading role in determining how forcefully the government seeks to constrain the financial industry.

White House officials have described Janet Yellen, the current vice chairwoman, as a finalist, and her candidacy has received widespread attention, but it remains unclear how seriously Mr. Obama is considering her. He does not know her well and White House aides have seemed unenthusiastic about her, despite the substantial support she enjoys from Democrats and outside economists.

If Mr. Obama does not name her — or Timothy F. Geithner, the former Treasury Secretary and Fed official who is well-liked by the president but said to be uninterested in the job — many Fed watchers say they are uncertain where the president will turn.

Mr. Bernanke plans to step down at the end of January, leaving ample time for the Senate to confirm a replacement, but the uncertainty has unsettled financial markets just as the Fed, which is beginning to retreat from its stimulus campaign, tries to assure investors that it will not move too quickly

In a statement released by the White House on Sunday afternoon, Mr. Obama said he had accepted the decision by his friend, whom he praised for helping to rescue the country from the financial crisis that peaked in 2008.

“Larry was a critical member of my team as we faced down the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, and it was in no small part because of his expertise, wisdom and leadership that we wrestled the economy back to growth and made the kind of progress we are seeing today,” Mr. Obama said in the statement.

He added: “I will always be grateful to Larry for his tireless work and service on behalf of his country, and I look forward to continuing to seek his guidance and counsel in the future.”

The withdrawal ends an unusually public and contentious debate that began when the president declared in a televised interview in June that Mr. Bernanke would depart, opening the replacement process to public scrutiny before a nominee was even named.

Mr. Summers had long been viewed by Mr. Obama and his economic advisers as Mr. Bernanke’s presumptive replacement.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/16/business/economy/summers-pulls-name-from-consideration-for-fed-chief.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

China’s Export Growth Eases Amid Global Turmoil

Trade data from China for September, released by the customs office, showed that the country’s booming pace of export growth has begun to ease as the global upheaval and a gradual rise in the value of the renminbi are taking their toll.

Both exports and imports still rose solidly last month — up 17.1 percent and 20.9 percent, respectively, compared to a year earlier, showing that global trade has by no means collapsed.

China’s trade surplus narrowed to $14.5 billion in September, from $17.8 billion in August. But the slimmer surplus was unlikely to fully defuse criticism from U.S. lawmakers who argue that Beijing is keeping the renminbi unfairly low against the U.S. dollar.

On Tuesday, the U.S. Senate passed a bill that would impose tariffs on certain Chinese goods if the Treasury Department determined that China was undervaluing its currency to its advantage.

“We think the probability of this currency bill being turned into a law remains very low, given the public opposition already voiced by the U.S. president and leading House Republicans,” said Yao Wei, an economist at Société Générale in Hong Kong, in a research note. “However, this standoff is likely to continue distorting the short-term path of the yuan, as China does not appreciate the U.S.’s attempts to bully it.”

Beijing has allowed a gradual appreciation in the renminbi since mid-2010. But the authorities are resisting calls for a faster rise in the currency, in part because they resent the pressure from the United States and in part because they fear that this would hurt Chinese exporters.

Lu Peijun, the deputy head of the Chinese customs administration, underlined that point on Thursday: “The rise in renminbi exchange rate may limit the room for export growth,” he said, according to Reuters.

Although the Chinese economy is growing less rapidly, many economists believe that China is headed for a gradual slowdown, rather than a sharp, shocking halt.

Still, the September trade figures were below what economists had been expecting and represented a marked slowdown from August, when exports rose 24.5 percent and imports by 30.2 percent.

As such, they highlighted that the upheaval generated by the debt crisis in Europe, and by the feeble nature of the U.S. economy, is denting trade activity around the globe.

“Although Chinese exports remain close to record levels, some impact from weaker global growth was to be expected, and the fall in year-on-year growth in September suggests this is starting to happen,” Brian Jackson, an emerging markets strategist at the Royal Bank of Canada in Hong Kong, commented in a note to clients.

This partly reflects not only slower growth in major trading partners but also a recent loss of competitiveness for Chinese exporters as a result of currency moves, he added.

“We don’t expect China’s exports to collapse as sharply as they did at the end of 2008, but risks are definitely skewed to a further moderation in external demand in coming months,” Mr. Jackson said.

The International Monetary Fund, meanwhile, on Thursday echoed the general sense of worry about the global outlook, tempered with a degree of confidence about Asian domestic demand, which is helping to cushion the region from the global upheaval.

“Domestic demand is still resilient, and it should continue to sustain activity across the region,” the I.M.F. said in its regional economic outlook for the Asia-Pacific region.

The fund forecast relatively robust growth of 6.3 percent for the region this year and 6.7 percent in 2012 on average, slightly below a previous forecast of 6.8 percent for 2011 and 6.9 percent for 2012 made in April.

Nevertheless, it stressed that an escalation of the financial turbulence in the euro zone and a more severe slowdown in the United States would have “clear macroeconomic and financial spillovers to Asia.”

“Asia has clearly not ‘decoupled’ from advanced economies,” the I.M.F. said.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/14/business/global/china-exports-trade-surplus.html?partner=rss&emc=rss